Ohio: Crime Went Down With Constitutional Carry

BarryLee · January 16, 2024, 06:44 AM

The Ohio Attorney Genral is reporting that crime went down in many major cities after Constitutional Carry. Now, does this mean more freedom to carry made crime go down? Maybe. However, it certainly means it didn't cause crime to increase.

https://www.ohioattorneygeneral.gov/...%20University.

**44 AMP** · January 16, 2024, 04:08 PM

I always have a problem with "studies" that claim one single factor being the important one, and the reason for changes in things like crime statistics, good or bad.

In the linked article, the study looked at data from June 2022 to June 2023 and found crime went down.

I have no doubt it did go down, and that permitless carry was A factor, but I don't see where one can say it was the deciding factor.

Alot of things changed after Covid hit, particularly the number of people being out and about doing things. We still have not completely recovered to pre "panicdemic" levels in many ways.

Point here is that MAYBE crime numbers went down simply because there were fewer people on the streets doing bad things.

One can correlate (co-relate) anything if you set your parameters broadly enough, but correlation is not causation, absent additional supporting data.

As another example, take a look at various protests, marches, and demonstrations, and see how their numbers drop drastically as the general temperature drops. Social conditions creating the reason for the protests don't change, but the number of people willing to go out in freezing weather to protest, certainly does!

When Florida relaxed its carry requirements some years ago (and where freezing temps is not a factor) crime did go down. overall, but crime against tourists went up! Seems that bad guys specifially targeted people with out of state licence plates, since they knew those people would not be armed, and reduced attacks on FL residents because they could no longer be sure those people were not armed.

This is the benefit of permitless (concealed) carry, bad guys reduce their attacks because they can't be sure they won't get shot!

I don't think that is the ONLY reason crime numbers go down, but I do think it plays a part. And it should be something govt considers.

zukiphile · January 16, 2024, 04:14 PM

I support constitutional carry in Ohio, but I would be less certain that a decrease in reported crime can't accompany an increase in crime.

Ever since the riots of the summer of 2020, the posture of police and people in larger cities has shifted in a direction that may involve less reporting. Cleveland and Columbus have always had large populations that don't regard police with warmth and trust, but after the riots there has been a sense amongst some LEOs that what they do doesn't have the same level of political support it once did.

I would intuit that carry as a right should depress violent crime, but I'd maintain reservations about crime reports as a metric.

Double Naught Spy · January 17, 2024, 12:40 AM

Constitutional carry likely had nothing to do with the crime rate going down. Crime went down in plenty of places that don't have it. https://jasher.substack.com/p/crime-...mmeted-violent

Moreover, homicide went down in NYC (11%), LA (16%), and Chicago (13%) in 2023, despite not having Constitutional carry.

Was it really a factor in Ohio? It wasn't in a bunch of other cities.

https://www.nyc.gov/site/nypd/news/p...s-october-2023
https://www.kxly.com/news/spokane-se...368553f67.html

Sort of reminds me of this old thread about how concealed carry caused a reduction in crime for 10 years in Texas. Texas' concealed carry law was so powerful, it even caused crime to go down in Texas in the 4 years before the law was passed and also caused crime to drop in other states as well. https://thefiringline.com/forums/sho...rime+rate+drop

ligonierbill · January 17, 2024, 07:20 AM

The real point of this statistic is to give lie to the anti-gun peoples' alarmist "carnage in the streets" prediction. There's a downside, though. Many Ohioans, even those who should know better, think the CHL has gone away. If you never leave the state, that's fine, but you give up the reciprocity Ohio has with many states. It's "shall issue", not very costly in time or money, and well supported by law enforcement. And while you still have to fill out the goofy form, dealers don't need to run the background check on CHL holders buying a gun. I'm OK with not requiring it in state, but I encourage people to take advantage of some decent training and real benefits.

BarryLee · January 17, 2024, 08:16 AM

T

Quote:

he real point of this statistic is to give lie to the anti-gun peoples' alarmist "carnage in the streets" prediction.

Yes, In Georgia evetime another freedom is returned/assured the antis talk about "blood in the streets" and it just doesn't happen.

zukiphile · January 17, 2024, 10:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LB

The real point of this statistic is to give lie to the anti-gun peoples' alarmist "carnage in the streets" prediction.

That seems fair.

DaleA · January 17, 2024, 02:18 PM

Years ago when Minnesota loosened its restrictions on concealed carry permits we had the ‘streets will run red’ alarmists in our state legislature that passed around and donned a blue bomb squad outfit (the one with the high collar) and testified against the bill and said that they would never enter any establishment that did NOT have a ‘guns are banned here’ sign on the front door.

Well here it is years later and the Twin Cities DOES have an ‘uptick’ (don’t you just love that word?) in shootings. But guess what? It’s not the concealed carry folk that are doing it.

Quote:

Over 40% of convicted gun crimes [in Minnesota] don’t get mandatory minimum sentence.

https://alphanews.org/over-40-of-con...imum-sentence/

As a specific example here’s a case I’ve mentioned before where a guy put three rounds into a car with people in it and got four months (FOUR MONTHS) of ‘house arrest’ with ‘work release’.

https://www.kare11.com/article/news/...f-f483367bd493

But yeah, new and stricter gun control laws are going to solve the problem (sarcasm).

Double Naught Spy · January 17, 2024, 07:15 PM

Quote:

The real point of this statistic is to give lie to the anti-gun peoples' alarmist "carnage in the streets" prediction.

That may be your interpretation, but it is not the point being argued.

Quote:

Yost said. “The key takeaway from this study is that we have to keep the pressure on the criminals who shoot people, rather than Ohioans who responsibly exercise their Second Amendment rights.”

sparkyv · January 20, 2024, 03:57 PM

Whoodathunkit?

Quote:

Originally Posted by BarryLee

The Ohio Attorney Genral is reporting that crime went down in many major cities after Constitutional Carry. [/URL]

January 16, 2024, 06:44 AM	#1
BarryLee Senior Member Join Date: July 29, 2010 Location: The ATL (OTP) Posts: 3,946	Ohio: Crime Went Down With Constitutional Carry The Ohio Attorney Genral is reporting that crime went down in many major cities after Constitutional Carry. Now, does this mean more freedom to carry made crime go down? Maybe. However, it certainly means it didn't cause crime to increase. https://www.ohioattorneygeneral.gov/...%20University. __________________ A major source of objection to a free economy is precisely that it ... gives people what they want instead of what a particular group thinks they ought to want. Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman

January 16, 2024, 04:08 PM	#2
44 AMP Staff Join Date: March 11, 2006 Location: Upper US Posts: 28,860	I always have a problem with "studies" that claim one single factor being the important one, and the reason for changes in things like crime statistics, good or bad. In the linked article, the study looked at data from June 2022 to June 2023 and found crime went down. I have no doubt it did go down, and that permitless carry was A factor, but I don't see where one can say it was the deciding factor. Alot of things changed after Covid hit, particularly the number of people being out and about doing things. We still have not completely recovered to pre "panicdemic" levels in many ways. Point here is that MAYBE crime numbers went down simply because there were fewer people on the streets doing bad things. One can correlate (co-relate) anything if you set your parameters broadly enough, but correlation is not causation, absent additional supporting data. As another example, take a look at various protests, marches, and demonstrations, and see how their numbers drop drastically as the general temperature drops. Social conditions creating the reason for the protests don't change, but the number of people willing to go out in freezing weather to protest, certainly does! When Florida relaxed its carry requirements some years ago (and where freezing temps is not a factor) crime did go down. overall, but crime against tourists went up! Seems that bad guys specifially targeted people with out of state licence plates, since they knew those people would not be armed, and reduced attacks on FL residents because they could no longer be sure those people were not armed. This is the benefit of permitless (concealed) carry, bad guys reduce their attacks because they can't be sure they won't get shot! I don't think that is the ONLY reason crime numbers go down, but I do think it plays a part. And it should be something govt considers. __________________ All else being equal (and it almost never is) bigger bullets tend to work better.

January 16, 2024, 04:14 PM	#3
zukiphile Senior Member Join Date: December 13, 2005 Posts: 4,463	I support constitutional carry in Ohio, but I would be less certain that a decrease in reported crime can't accompany an increase in crime. Ever since the riots of the summer of 2020, the posture of police and people in larger cities has shifted in a direction that may involve less reporting. Cleveland and Columbus have always had large populations that don't regard police with warmth and trust, but after the riots there has been a sense amongst some LEOs that what they do doesn't have the same level of political support it once did. I would intuit that carry as a right should depress violent crime, but I'd maintain reservations about crime reports as a metric. __________________ http://www.npboards.com/index.php

January 17, 2024, 12:40 AM	#4
Double Naught Spy Senior Member Join Date: January 8, 2001 Location: Forestburg, Montague Cnty, TX Posts: 12,717	Constitutional carry likely had nothing to do with the crime rate going down. Crime went down in plenty of places that don't have it. https://jasher.substack.com/p/crime-...mmeted-violent Moreover, homicide went down in NYC (11%), LA (16%), and Chicago (13%) in 2023, despite not having Constitutional carry. Was it really a factor in Ohio? It wasn't in a bunch of other cities. https://www.nyc.gov/site/nypd/news/p...s-october-2023 https://www.kxly.com/news/spokane-se...368553f67.html Sort of reminds me of this old thread about how concealed carry caused a reduction in crime for 10 years in Texas. Texas' concealed carry law was so powerful, it even caused crime to go down in Texas in the 4 years before the law was passed and also caused crime to drop in other states as well. https://thefiringline.com/forums/sho...rime+rate+drop __________________ "If you look through your scope and see your shoe, aim higher." -- said to me by my 11 year old daughter before going out for hogs 8/13/2011 My Hunting Videos https://www.youtube.com/user/HornHillRange

January 17, 2024, 07:20 AM	#5
ligonierbill Senior Member Join Date: May 20, 2007 Posts: 2,459	The real point of this statistic is to give lie to the anti-gun peoples' alarmist "carnage in the streets" prediction. There's a downside, though. Many Ohioans, even those who should know better, think the CHL has gone away. If you never leave the state, that's fine, but you give up the reciprocity Ohio has with many states. It's "shall issue", not very costly in time or money, and well supported by law enforcement. And while you still have to fill out the goofy form, dealers don't need to run the background check on CHL holders buying a gun. I'm OK with not requiring it in state, but I encourage people to take advantage of some decent training and real benefits.