Are New Shortages Coming?

[VoodooMountain]

No movement here
Slow as ever

[Stats Shooter]

Here in Mississippi I was in one of my LGS's today, and one on Monday. The shelves are still bursting with AR's, ammo, powder, primers, bullets, etc etc. No panic buying here. And there won't be because we have state constitutional amendments preventing it. Business as usual down here.

Perhaps someone could profiteer from shipping some stuff off to other states. But in Mississippi you will have a tough time peddling over priced crap.

In this Congress, with this Senate, and this president, I expect very little nationally, nothing here in the southern states. Perhaps in some deep blue states bump fire stocks will be banned and binary triggers. But here in gunrack Mississippi.....nada damn thing will happen.

[MarkCO]

Not seeing much if anything (status quo) around where I live. Seems half of the gunstore owners hit the radio and TV circuit today.

[Nathan]

I'm selling my truck for 22 ammo!

[Tsquared]

There was a sub-$400 Omni AR still on the shelf at the my LGS this afternoon. It hasn't happened yet, but it might...

[Onward Allusion]

Yeah, probably one coming. This one will unlikely impact the guys that went through the last two. Feel bad for the new shooters, however.

[JoeSixpack]

Originally Posted by Mississippi

Here in Mississippi I was in one of my LGS's today, and one on Monday. The shelves are still bursting with AR's, ammo, powder, primers, bullets, etc etc. No panic buying here. And there won't be because we have state constitutional amendments preventing it. Business as usual down here.

There is nothing in your state constitution that will insulate you from a federal ban.

[Metal god]

I'd say buy stock in slide fire stocks ( bump fire ) I predict there will be a law signed banning any type of conversion regardless of how it operates of hardware that allows the firearm to be fired as if it were in full auto . They are going to be selling like hotcakes .

I not only think that , I believe it will pass on a huge bipartisan vote in both the house and the senate . I think this because it's the one bone the pro gun crowd can throw the anti's that will look like somethings being done while at the same time will not effect the vast majority of firearm owners . Allowing something like that to pass quickly will likely put the gun control debate to bed rather quickly allowing the country to move to finding better ways to prevent this thing from happening again that may actually work rather then beating that old gun control bell to death .

The question is what will they find the shooter did leading up to the shooting that they will try to ban and or restrict likely adding it to the bump fire ban .

Did he buy all 16+ long guns at once or in a very short period of time . Maybe they try to add that you can only buy 3 guns a month or some sort of restriction like that to the bill .

Maybe he bought all the ammo at once online . Now they want to add something like requirements that store must report people buying more then x amount of ammo a week or in one purchase to the bump fire ban .

I doubt it will have anything to do with reloading components but my bet is there will be some traction to pass something and banning the bump fire stocks seems logical and an easy give to have the debate go away . If it looks like something will pass regardless of what . Even if it does not seem like much . The anti's will be trying to amend the bill constantly and all that talk in the media will cause a panic .

So yes I think a panic buying frenzy is very possible especially if as RC20 points out Trump starts excepting the conversation and indicates he is willing to sign some type of limited restriction . If the bill gets past fast with out to much pork added . I suspect the shortages if any wont last to long but once that train gets rolling it can be hard to stop .

That all said , I was 100% convinced after Sandy Hook we gun owners were doomed and nothing happened so what do I know haha .

[roashooter]

The closer we get to the 2018 elections....the prices of guns and ammo will once again rise and become short in supply....in anticipation of the dims winning back more power...

[Stats Shooter]

I'd say buy stock in slide fire stocks ( bump fire ) I predict there will be a law signed banning any type of conversion regardless of how it operates of hardware that allows the firearm to be fired as if it were in full auto . They are going to be selling like hotcakes .

I not only think that , I believe it will pass on a huge bipartisan vote in both the house and the senate . I think this because it's the one bone the pro gun crowd can throw the anti's that will look like somethings being done while at the same time will not effect the vast majority of firearm owners . Allowing something like that to pass quickly will likely put the gun control debate to bed rather quickly allowing the country to move to finding better ways to prevent this thing from happening again that may actually work rather then beating that old gun control bell to death .

The question is what will they find the shooter did leading up to the shooting that they will try to ban and or restrict likely adding it to the bump fire ban .

Did he buy all 16+ long guns at once or in a very short period of time . Maybe they try to add that you can only buy 3 guns a month or some sort of restriction like that to the bill .

Maybe he bought all the ammo at once online . Now they want to add something like requirements that store must report people buying more then x amount of ammo a week or in one purchase to the bump fire ban .

I doubt it will have anything to do with reloading components but my bet is there will be some traction to pass something and banning the bump fire stocks seems logical and an easy give to have the debate go away . If it looks like something will pass regardless of what . Even if it does not seem like much . The anti's will be trying to amend the bill constantly and all that talk in the media will cause a panic .

So yes I think a panic buying frenzy is very possible especially if as RC20 points out Trump starts excepting the conversation and indicates he is willing to sign some type of limited restriction . If the bill gets past fast with out to much pork added . I suspect the shortages if any wont last to long but once that train gets rolling it can be hard to stop .

That all said , I was 100% convinced after Sandy Hook we gun owners were doomed and nothing happened so what do I know haha .

I disagree with with most of what you said here. People tend to learn and not repeat mistakes for the most part.
The panic buys after the '08 election, the Colorado movie theater event, the Connecticut event, and the 2016 election already drove anyone who wanted an AR to get at least one....often over paying by 100% of the actual "non panic" value. With everyone who was on the fence about getting one having overpaid for one already, and the rest of us having several (I have several), there just aren't enough folks left wanting one who don't own one already to drive up prices. That plus the fact that the market is flooded currently with AR's means that dealers may try and mark them up, but they wont sell.

Then we move on to ammo, those of us who already lived though the previous panic buys stocked up a long time ago. I think that is why it took over a year after the panic buys for supplies to stabilize, because people were stocking up when supplies became available. I, for instance, have been steadily stocking up since and have 3 full hazmats worth of components.....that is a lot of primers and powder btw. Which means I will not, and many of you will not, be tempted to buy anymore than usual. Which means no self-fulfilling shortage. Also, I have over 15k rounds of .22lr too.

Finally, after all those panic buys, people have seen how their "$2k colt LE" promptly fell to $750 in value and will hesitate to buy an overpriced gun. I want another 7.62x39 AK, but Im not going to pay what they are asking right now for a gun that should cost $500 or less....it is only that price because of Obama's EO on imported AK's.

However, the banning of slidefire stocks is possible. I for one will not buy one or own one. My dad has one and I don't particularly like it. But I have nothing against them either.

[JeepHammer]

After 9 consecutive years of "Obammers cummin' fer yure guns" shortages,
Homeland buying up 3.2 billion rounds from civilian ammo manufacturers,
Idiotic panic buying,
Profiteering buying,
I'm about 'Shortaged' out.

I'm sure Las Vegas will cause no end of stupidity, but with maybe the banning of bump fire devices, noting else will be done about it, like every other mass shooting.
The spin doctors were in full swing before daylight the morning after, but no one is stating the obvious, crazy people do crazy things for crazy reasons...

I ordered a couple 8 pound bottles of benchmark and primers on Saturday (free hazmat) but I have no idea if it will ship on time or not now...
You can't find a primer anywhere around or any popular powder, and you can forget about finding any .223 or .308 ammo of any kind locally.
We always get hit hard when these panics happen, I don't know why...

My friend that owns one of the reloading friendly gun shops said one idiot bought up $7,000 worth of 9mm & .223 ammo of every kind, from China crap to super premium ammo.
Says he's taking a vacation if restock gets hard to find.

[hounddawg]

must be something in the water where you live Jeep, been to 1 old school gun store and a large sporting goods chain store here in the last three days and it is business as usual and plenty of everything on the shelf.

You sell recycled brass on the internet don't you? any unusually large orders coming in?

[RC20]

The closer we get to the 2018 elections....the prices of guns and ammo will once again rise and become short in supply....in anticipation of the dims winning back more power

Possibly, but keep in mind the Republicans are expected to hold the Senate and we have to see where the Paper Towel Thrower goes (sort of like watching a pin ball machine) - of course when you have Primary Winners like Moore, you may see the whiplash that the Tea Party created allowing the Dems to take the Senate that year. All 6 seats that were Republicans to loose went to the Demos. Virtually unheard of. Statewide races can't be Jerry meandered.

Me, I go along with the Bump Fire ban. If anything proved that the machine gun ban (signed by a Republicans) had merit, Las Vegas certainly is it. Maybe not a popular view but I am a pragmatist. If it effectively turns a gun into a machine gun then its a machine gun.

Like the silencers, if they get turned into the public domain by removing the limits you are going to see them used a lot.

I have always been a proponent that any new product should have a review board. Gets into rights vs privileges. I have talked to a number of gun owner and enthusiasts that now feel that gun ownership should be earned - previous die for the 2nd amendment folks. Why? Because they have seen the current generation of gun owners in action and it scares them all to bejuseus .

As we have seen with drones, they are flying into aircraft patch and there is now damaged aircraft as a result.

Chemicals should be the same, do we really want something like MTBE that was as insidious and ground poluting a poison as radiation?

[JeepHammer]

The largest part of my sales are groups, shooting teams & clubs and they don't panic buy.

Personally, I'd support a universal background check on all transfers, if you can't be bothered to see a dealer & fork over &10 for a legal transfer it's probably going to lead to much stiffer controls later on.

I'd also support a ban on bump fire devices, if you can't pass the full on ATF background check for a full auto, it's probably not a good idea to have a rapid fire device.
I've never seen any practical use for a bump fire device...

I've had to endure FBI, Homeland Security & Port/Customs background checks, along with BATFE background checks, and other than taking a bunch of time, it's not that bad (unless you have had negative contact with local law enforcement or have a radical opinion on social media).
I would probably support a background check for military clone rifles that accept high volume mags or belts.
Semi auto clone military versions a one time check that is revokable if your legal standing changes, like being accused of a violent crime, conviction of a felony, ect.
Just common sense stuff.

When the one time background check for high volume reloaders was proposed I gave it open consideration, but it was shot down so fast I didn't have to come down on a side of the debate.
I'd pay a one time $200 fee to be able to buy cases of primers rather than bricks, I'd pay that fee to buy jugs or kegs of powder rather than 1 pound cans...

Can't see where it would make any difference since the crazies buy in small batches rather than jugs or kegs, and I don't know of a single use of primers for crazy stuff...
Pressure cooker bombers & pipe bombers all bought small cans, not big lots of powder, so it seems like they are trying to regulate the wrong end of the horse...

When you can still buy ammonium nitrate in any fertilizer supply house, and most garden supply departments of big box stores, Tannerite is available without any ID at all in the farm stores, it seems kind of silly to freak out about fertilizer...

This is going to get REAL stupid because the industry & groups that have the best understanding of what will and won't work refuse to come to the table, so we get the ignorant talking heads spewing useless crap all over the place.

5 year olds shouldn't play with knives or poison, so we passed laws about responsibility & child proofin,
When air travel became patently unsafe, we passed laws & regulations that make it the safest way to travel,
I'm NOT against reviewing restrictions, but not some idiotic cosmetic outright ban on firearms...
But something that would actually get something done, like ALL center fire, semi auto, detachable mag (or belt fed) firearms to go through a legal transfer process with at least the phone call instant background check done,
Maybe a one time NFA Controlled firearm style background check done before you are allowed to purchase non traditional sporting arms.

No sense in wasting time & money on the .22 Rimfire squirrel rifles & tube fed shotguns like New York did,
No mass shooting with wheel guns or bolt rifles or rimfires...

I USED to have drums, 30 & 40 round mags, but as I got older I just don't see a need for that stuff,
I buy up all the 5 & 10 round mags I can find for my ARs simply because I AIM my shots and shoot groups...
(Wasting ammo for the sake of hearing the gun fire is for young, foolish guys)

This is America, so if you want to waste ammo 30 or 40 or 100 rounds at a time, it's all right by me!
Along those same lines, I'd also like to know you aren't some deranged person preparing to do something stupid or crazy,
And I'd like to know you follow guidelines for securing your hardware so some crackhead doesn't wind up with it in my neighborhood!
A NFA style background check would go a long way towards peace of mind if you just 'Want' those styles of firearms, magazines, etc.

Would it be worth $200 to anyone else for that NFA style background check?
(one time, like a firearms ownership card for high capacity semi-autos)

If there was a voluntary program, a way for legal owners to self regulate, I'd throw down the $200 just for the peace of mind of my neighbors that see me packing all sorts of strange firearms around!
Having local law enforcement know you have the background check done and you cleared would sure stop any misinterpretation between you and them.
I wouldn't want to be mistaken for some random crazy when I'm packing something 'Black' or 'Evil Looking' around!

Anyway, just some ideas, not trying to force anything down anyone's throats...

[Metal god]

I'd love to debate you on some of that jeep , How ever knowing it's off the topic here of shortages the mods will shut the thread down and we wont finish the debate so there's no need to start it .

As to my other post . My main point was , If there is real talk of some regulations actually passing that's going to spook a lot of people . If things like Jeephammer is talking about are floated and it looks like they will pass . It will be full freak out mode .

[JeepHammer]

Hound Dog, it could very well be my area!
Everyone is related, everyone is pretty much cookie cutter versions of each other...
It's a drone mentality, what the neighbors do, they have to do as quickly as possible!

They think I'm completely crazy,
I have solar power, which REALLY ticks off the coal miner bunch, (none of their business),
I don't work a 7 to 5 job in a mine or factory, and that makes me 'Strange',
I actually aim guns before I pull the trigger, not just get half drunk then spray the general direction of a Target,
I don't hunt deer, which is a HUGE deal around here! If you own guns it's pretty well a requirement to deer hunt...
I'm not a fan of deer meat, and the wife treats them like pets and that makes us 'Strange'.

We throw out big gardens & home can, and almost no one around here does it anymore, or on a large scale.
We do it to get clean food, and to get exactly what we like!
Takes time, but saves money... I have wasted time, but I don't like to waste money.

We are the exception to the rule around here, no political posters in the yard, no worries about what the neighbors are doing or driving, no hard line opinions about much of anything, willing to listen and consider about anything.
Small actions make big changes, good things are built over time, wasted time is worse than wasted money, so we stay busy...

TV or facebag does nothing FOR us, so we ignore it, and that makes us 'Strange' since we don't know who the latest celebrity idiot is in the news.
With the exception of Tom Petty passing away, I'm a big Tom Petty fan, but when they talk about some rapper or trust fund brat (here today, gone today) doing something stupid, I don't even know who they are...

You guys are about the only version of 'Social Media' I participate in...
I don't care about being a twit, facebaging, or any of that other crap, and absolutely EVERYONE around here is addicted to that stuff, so I'm the strange one when they talk about it.

Maybe why I don't get caught up in hysteria, I do my own thinking and form my own opinions, I don't have them drip fed to me via collective insanity groups.

[JoeSixpack]

Originally Posted by RC20

Me, I go along with the Bump Fire ban. If anything proved that the machine gun ban (signed by a Republicans) had merit, Las Vegas certainly is it. Maybe not a popular view but I am a pragmatist. If it effectively turns a gun into a machine gun then its a machine gun.

Careful in your logic, If the end result is all that matters semi auto's and magazine size where on the chopping block for similar reasons.

Im sure if such a ban comes to the floor it will pass right now though.. Looking within the gun community on the internet we are fractured and weak.

Originally Posted by RC20

I have always been a proponent that any new product should have a review board. Gets into rights vs privileges. I have talked to a number of gun owner and enthusiasts that now feel that gun ownership should be earned - previous die for the 2nd amendment folks. Why? Because they have seen the current generation of gun owners in action and it scares them all to bejuseus .

Stocks like the Slide Fire actually have ATF approval letters.. for what ever that's worth.

The bill of rights was suppose to be acknowledgements of birthright not privileges given upon by some controlling entity like the government.

Those that support such measured should ask them selves if they would make the grade in an arbitrary test.. They probably think such "earning" would be to a level suitable for them selves.

Imagine if we did this with the 1a and reproductive permits.

[JeepHammer]

MG, if there were CIVIL, open minded debates,
Just forget everything you *Think* you know and start from a clean sheet, I'd be glad to participate.

I'm NOT the guy that forgets the Constitution when taking which, if any, restrictions or bans are discussed.
I'm not the foaming mouthed second amendment type, Im not the arrogant radical left 'Ban Everything' type...
I'm willing to at least listen to any discussion or idea.

Clearly, high fire rate firearms are getting into the wrong hands and people are getting more crazy/bold because body counts are going way up...

370 Million lawfully purchased & owned firearms since 1968 in this country, more than one firearm for every man, woman & child in the country.
Reasonable estimate of 12 Billion rounds of ammunition in private hands,
And with technology you can 3D print a lower receiver or melt down beer cans for a billet and down load CNC programs to machine your own receiver.

Technology has rendered any type of complete firearms bans a moot point and only the crazy far left suggests differently...

I'm willing to come to the table before this gets even more out of hand than it already is...
Shortages & stockpiling, mass shootings are the symptoms, I'd like to address the actual causes in a constructive way... If I were smarter I'd have all the answers and some 'Miricle' fix, but I'm just an average guy that sees ugly things coming if we as an owners group don't address this...

[JeepHammer]

Joe, the Constitution is rights GIVEN under the rule of law.
The pure genius of the US Constitution is it can be changed as circumstances change.

Our founding fathers couldn't have for seen mass production of firearms that can crank out 500 or 1,000 rounds a minute, and that's high velocity, not black powder and round balls.

They also couldn't imagine a Congress that gets $3.2 Billion to run the country,
But a lobby structure that dumps $77 Billion a year to corrupt the most well intended politicians.

They couldn't have possibly foretold a Congress with an approval rating of low teens, but a 95% reelection rate simply because of the money being g dumped into gerrymandering and campaigns from special interest.

They also couldn't have foreseen a population where less than half votes on even the most important elections, and would rather follow some celebrity idiot's brain leakage on Twitter or Facebook than actually keep up with what's going on in their own government...

The old saying, you get what you work for is true.
If they aren't willing to sit up and pay attention, you can't help the lazy & willfully ignorant...

[FlyFish]

. . . the Constitution is rights GIVEN under the rule of law.The pure genius of the US Constitution is it can be changed as circumstances change.

This is simply wrong. The US Constitution is an enumeration of the powers that the people have chosen to grant to their government. Any "rights" not so given are reserved to the states, and if not given to the states via their own constitutions, they remain with the people. The Bill of Rights did not give us rights, it affirmed rights that we already possessed. In other words, in our system of government, the people start with ALL of the rights and then choose to grant some of them to the government. That is really the "pure genius of the US Constitution."

[hounddawg]

I spent the first 20 odd years of my life in Appalachia myself Jeep so enough said. I am old enough to remember the phantom blizzard of 77 which cleaned off every grocery store shelf in less than 4 hours. Then after all business's closed and sent their employees home and schools were let out early everyone sat home watching exactly zero inches of snow fall. Not so much as a single snowflake, talk about some weather forecasters with egg on their faces.

However my sister had enough canned soup and Spam in her pantry to last her for 10 years

On the stock thing I figure if it shoots like a full auto it is a full auto. Can't recall ever seeing one in any sanctioned shooting event and unless you are hunting a herd of rabid zombie deer I doubt it would serve a purpose in most hunting situations

[Mike Irwin]

Ok, this has gotten well and far afield of the purpose of the forum, so I think the best thing to do is simply close it.

There's lots of good discussion here, but it's best done in Law and Civil Rights, not in Handloading.