“Reasonable” Primer cost?

[rclark]

I remember paying $30 per 1000 when I started loading

Was $10 when I started reloading.... That said I think $40 is a reasonable price for standard Large Pistol Primers in these times. Just me though. Problem is, there are people buying at whatever the price, so stores can just keep jacking the price up. As long as they sale, no reason to lower prices. I have enough stocked to last me quite some time (years in fact), so not having to buy at the 'inflated' prices.

[hounddawg]

I am more worried about a reasonable ground beef and ribeye cost right now

Federal Champion Small Rifle Primers #205 Case of 5000

$600 or 12 cents each, that would do me a couple of years

way inflation is going that will be the cost of a couple of steaks soon

[jpx2rk]

I've been able to find/order/receive primers(CCI SRP) and the average price was just under $100 as I was able to order 2 bricks/order, so that helped on shipping and hazmat fees.

[Shadow9mm]

Just scored from brownells. Cci large pistol, $82.99 per 1000, 2 box max. After tax, shipping, and the haz mat fee, came to $210.72. Or $105.36 per 1000. Not great, but fair.

[Prof Young]

I recently paid a touch over $100 for a brick of CCI small rifle primers. Will use them for reloading 223. Also recently bought a "big box" of 223 off the shelf and they were about 80 cents a round. Even paying ten cents per primer, I will still save about 50 cents a round.

I think that as long as there is a huge per-shot savings then I will find the primer price reasonable.

Life is good.
Prof Young

[std7mag]

Person on Pennswoods has Fed 210M primers for $250 per 1,000 last week.

They can freak'n keep them!

[ciwsguy]

Surprised anyone would pay that much for a brick of 1000

[Sure Shot Mc Gee]

Back in 84 I purchased some components from a little shop called Dexter Automotive in Dexter Kansas. Still shooting that purchase up. At that time I paid so little for primers maybe .17 cents a package per 100 count for Win brand.
My advice: Check out those estate sales in your area. Some of those recently passed old-timer reloaders are better supplied than Bass Pro & Midway.

[edfardos]

Inflation is out of control as well. printing free money for everyone who votes correctly has pushed primers up 6% this year alone, plus extraordinay fuel prices to get them to your stores. this combined with all the good observations above demands $80/brick. free market forces are fine. market manipulation isn't. At least most of you don't have to buy a US Passport and pay for background checks to buy ammo (yet). that drives up costs as well.

[Unclenick]

No evidence of manipulation or general inflation driving primer prices up. None of those influences is anywhere near to explaining the 230% that primers have gone up. You'd have to show people ran around spending all their stimulus money on primers to prove that idea. Instead, the high prices are just the result of normal market forces that are present whenever demand exceeds supply. The manufacturers are being open to Forbes and other investment news media about what's happening and certainly don't want the SCC breathing down their necks for trying to manipulate their stock prices or the FTC after them for illegal trade practices. By Occam's Razor, adding manipulation increases the complexity of the explanation of what is going on, making it less likely to be true.

[Metal god]

No evidence of manipulation or general inflation driving primer prices up.

Although I don't disagree this "was" not largely manipulated . I disagree there is no manipulation . There's maybe 1k ways to sanction governments for things you feel they've done . When a anti admin bans importation of the very thing that can help relieve the market in the name of sanctions . That is a clear manipulation of the market . Especially when said banned items would almost certainly be cheaper to buy thus relieving the domestic manufacturing demand . I don't know this as fact but my guess is at worst an anti admin would also be doing all kinds of things behind the scenes to push the shortage along and at best doing nothing to get us out of it .

[9MMand223only]

Unclenick, this shortage we been experiencing has lasted this long, due to ammo manufacturers having contracts with governments and supplying them. They prioritize government over us.

[TruthTellers]

With true inflation running about 20% I'll say at most $48 per brick as I paid $40 for a brick of Federal primers in March 2020.

There is no excuse for selling primers for more than $50 a brick other than gouging. If the manufacturers are now charging $60 or $70 a brick (they're not) for primers then the current prices for primers is on both distributors and retailers price gouging.

[tangolima]

During the Obama shortage, a member of the club I belong to put an ad on the club's newsletter for a sleeve (100 primers). The price printed was $12, which was about 4x of the normal price. When I met the guy, he asked for $120! The club printed $12 because it was too crazy to be real. It must be a typo. I was desperate but not that desperate. That guy's judgement on supply and demand must be a bit off.

I have learned to stock up since. I can see the price is softening in the "black market". For now, I accept price of up to $75 per 1k, which is about 2x, if I am really running low. I will wait otherwise.

Conserve and improvise, plus a bit of trade and bartering, we will get through this one. It ain't that bad really.

-TL

P.S. I just bought 2k wolf SRP for $75 each. Not bad. Most primers are going for $125 per 1k. But I have seen more and more $120, and occasionally $100. It is a good sign.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

[Unclenick]

Originally Posted by Metal God

There's maybe 1k ways to sanction governments for things you feel they've done . When a anti admin bans importation of the very thing that can help relieve the market in the name of sanctions . That is a clear manipulation of the market .

That's evidence of trying to manipulate the Russians by hitting a profitable export, not the civilian ammunition market. At least, not yet. If the ban is still there in a couple of years, then you can start to argue market manipulation. There is still a couple of year's worth of Russian ammo importing already approved and it will take that long for it to conclude. That you can't find it today is because of long (think multiple months) delays in ocean freight due to COVID-19 that affects all consumer goods, and panic buying by people who mistakenly think the ban will immediately end all import of the stuff and who rush to get as much as they can before it is gone.

Originally Posted by 9MMand223only

Unclenick, this shortage we been experiencing has lasted this long, due to ammo manufacturers having contracts with governments and supplying them. They prioritize government over us.

According to the NSSF, the U.S. civilian ammunition market in the last decade has been about 15 billion rounds a year. Government contracts have been about 1.5 billion rounds a year and thus are not large enough to account for the kind of drain we now see. The only exception is when the military needs to replenish stockpiles, as it did after a decade in Iraq. That added demand for about 4 billion more rounds than usual causing a diversion of a portion of civilian manufacturing capacity to supplement Lake City for about two years. But then it was over. There is no such replenishing going on currently, as is evidenced by new Lake City ammunition and cartridge cases still showing up in the civilian market periodically. If they were currently stockpiling, it would all be kept by the military.

The real problem is the 15 Billion round civilian market average has now gone the way of the dinosaur. I am hoping the NSSF will come out with figures for last year soon, but if all twelve million new gun owners from the last two years bought a hundred rounds each for their new guns, that's 1.2 billion rounds additional demand right there, and you know a lot of them will shoot that up in a week and want more. Add the over-buyers to them and I wouldn't be surprised if the civilian demand was at 150%-200% of historic levels this last year. The fact the ammo plants have added hundreds of employees and are now running three shifts is evidence that it must be big numbers like that. Winchester says it produced more hunting ammunition last year than in any other year in history, and you know government contracts are not going to be for hunting ammunition.

The numbers are mind-boggling, and a massive increase in civilian market demand is the only thing that fits.

Originally Posted by TruthTellers

With true inflation running about 20%

More like 7%. However, surveys show the average person's perception is that it is much higher than it actually is. This is due to a tendency of the human brain to remember things that alarm it, like the prices for favorite items that jump out at you because they show above-average increases. In that situation, we tend to forget that boring things like the water bill haven't gone up as much (at least, not in most places).

[TruthTellers]

Originally Posted by Unclenick

More like 7%. However, surveys show the average person's perception is that it is much higher than it actually is. This is due to a tendency of the human brain to remember things that alarm it, like the prices for favorite items that jump out at you because they show above-average increases. In that situation, we tend to forget that boring things like the water bill haven't gone up as much (at least, not in most places).

Well, water is pretty abundant and cheap to treat and supply, but anything that is manufactured or refined is running close to 20% above what it was 2 years ago. Dollar Tree rose prices 25%, much of the food I buy is up 10 to 20%, the only stuff I see not going up in price that is a physical good is anything that's an electronic entertainment device like phones and TV's.

I don't care what impact supply/demand has on the price increases because we're told the prices will go back down once the supply issues are corrected, but by the time that happens either inflation will keep the prices where they are now or people will be so used to paying higher prices that distributors and retailers won't lower them.

[Beagle333]

And with the market staying sold out, it might be the norm for a while. All the new reloaders aren't too mad about 12 cent primers. They're still producing rounds for 40-45 cents (handgun) and the retail is still 60 cents to a buck per round. So they are "winning" in their math and it's just us older reloaders that are lamenting the 12 cent primers. I miss the 3 cent days too, but I don't think it's coming back. I only hope one day it gets back to a nickel a primer, but that might be quite a while.

[Unclenick]

Just this last Thursday or Friday, the talking heads on TV included economists and former Fed board members who are now starting to worry inflation won't reverse when the supply chain gets sorted. This is both because, on the supply side, increases in salaries due to trying to attract or keep employees during the labor shortage can't easily be taken back, and on the customer side, buying habits are being changed by the pandemic and the old supply chain may no longer prove adequate even when it is restored. Things that used to be trucked to stores for the consumer to transport home are now being shipped, so they go through an additional paid transportation step that uses supply chain resources. So we may have some adjusting to do.

[9MMand223only]

Unclenick, the 1.5B number you site is "federal" USA government. Its not state and local governments. That statistic is misleading.

Please keep in mind, most state and local governments, that are funded by you, shoot for FREE. They get whatever they want, prioritized over us. We are last in the supply chain. All government bodies, federal, state and local, are in front of us. What is left over after they take what they want, you can buy. BTW, I finished that primer flash hole test, check it out.

[Metal god]

That's evidence of trying to manipulate the Russians by hitting a profitable export, not the civilian ammunition market. At least, not yet. If the ban is still there in a couple of years,

Thanks didn't know it was not already in effect which seems odd to me but ok . I don't agree in complete that it's evidence against the Russians . I mean yes but picking an item that goes directly to supporting a key political strategy while at the same time actually hurting many Americans is not good policy IMO . I can't think of many if any other sanctions that would negatively impact more Americans then banning anything firearms related . That's a political choice not a choice best for Americans .

[ciwsguy]

So as the OP on this string of replies, I suppose what’s reasonable is whatever one is willing to pay for it.
I remember when I first started driving in 1973 that a gallon of gasoline was about 35 cents. By 1974 during the opec embargo, it had doubled to about 75 cents. I also remember some people saying “I don’t think I can afford to drive anymore”. But guess what? We grumbled about it, paid the price and moved on. Those pre inflation prices have not returned. And no, I don’t think that EVs are the wholesale solution to that, not attempting to morph the discussion into that political hot topic.
Though it may not be fair to compare gasoline to primers, there are some parallels that can be drawn.
I seriously doubt that $35 per brick of primers (retail) is ever going to return to store shelves. I think $75 has become the new retail normal and it only goes up from there.
Two bits.....

[reddog81]

I think primers in the $30 to $40 range will happen again. I remember in 2013/2014 when the internet sages predicted we’d never again see .22lr for under $75 for a brick of 500. I was paying $18 in 2018… It might take another year or two or even longer but once the panic buying dies down, shelves are restocked, and manufacturers need to keep selling, the prices will drop.

[Unclenick]

M.G.,

Yeah, and not only is it not stopped, I just learned that the ocean shipment chain has pretty much caught up and ammo imports from Russia, Korea, and the EU countries are at 225% of what they were before the pandemic (see next-to-last link below) and we still can't keep up with demand.


9MMand223only,

Thanks for the heads up on the flash hole test. I'll check it out.

On the ammo bought by the government, I didn't include non-federal purchases because they are relatively small. We have about 700,000 police officers nationwide and they shoot, on average, just 200 rounds a year each. That's about 0.14B rounds per year. So, add that to 1.5 Billion in Federal purchases and you get 1.64B. Even if you made it ten times normal, doubling government purchase, it's still just nowhere near enough to account for what we are seeing. Also, while the Feds and the military can put themselves at the head of the line for ammunition, local law enforcement entities don't have that kind of clout. Especially not with ammo makers in other states, and they are not all able to get ammunition either. And it's got thieves actively stealing from police. Some departments used to reload training ammo, though I've heard liability concerns have cut that down or out in places. But even if that weren't so, the primer shortage would be curtailing it, too.

[Shadow9mm]

Originally Posted by Unclenick

M.G.,

Yeah, and not only is it not stopped, I just learned that the ocean shipment chain has pretty much caught up and ammo imports from Russia, Korea, and the EU countries are at 225% of what they were before the pandemic (see next-to-last link below) and we still can't keep up with demand.


9MMand223only,

Thanks for the heads up on the flash hole test. I'll check it out.

On the ammo bought by the government, I didn't include non-federal purchases because they are relatively small. We have about 700,000 police officers nationwide and they shoot, on average, just 200 rounds a year each. That's about 0.14B rounds per year. So, add that to 1.5 Billion in Federal purchases and you get 1.64B. Even if you made it ten times normal, doubling government purchase, it's still just nowhere near enough to account for what we are seeing. Also, while the Feds and the military can put themselves at the head of the line for ammunition, local law enforcement entities don't have that kind of clout. Especially not with ammo makers in other states, and they are not all able to get ammunition either. And it's got thieves actively stealing from police. Some departments used to reload training ammo, though I've heard liability concerns have cut that down or out in places. But even if that weren't so, the primer shortage would be curtailing it, too.

With my agency we qualify twice per year, but both during the same in-service. I would say we generally shoot about 300-500rnds per year at that in-service. My agency also allows us to get 50rnds per month for training, if we want to go get it, or another 600 pear year. But we are a bit bigger, and may shoot more than others.

[Metal god]

I just learned that the ocean shipment chain has pretty much caught up and ammo imports from Russia, Korea, and the EU countries are at 225% of what they were before the pandemic

Is that 225% exportation or production ? The article you linked is from 7 months ago when prices were actually better then they are now and also from a time we all thought it was starting to get better .