The perils of the gunzine guru...

[Tamara]

Suppose you have an opinion on a fuzzily-understood topic such as "Handgun Stopping Power". You have a pet load or type of load that you are sure from your experience is certain death to be shot with. Now you have to convince everyone out there in readerville...

You can decide how many inches of ballistic gelatin a bullet must penetrate to be lethal. Trouble is, folks shot with bullets that don't make the magic numbers keep falling down dead in numbers too big to be a statistical anomaly.

You can publish percentages of "stops" from arbitrary criteria. Unfortunately, folks ignore the fact that your heart was in the right place and point out the numerous statistical flaws in your study.

My current whipping boy, and the motivator for my post, is the fact that I added a column for "Taylor Knockout Values" to my handgun ballistics spreadsheet with some interesting results. Originally cooked up by big-game hunter John "Pondoro" Taylor to rate big rifle cartridges, this particular statistic has become near and dear to another Taylor because it tends to put serious emphasis on bullet weight and (more importantly) bore size, thereby favoring the beloved .45 ACP over .357 magnum and other challengers. Unfortunately, what may work for rating Nitro Express solids against Dumbo's non-Disney cousins tends to break down worse and worse the farther you get from the .458 WinMag end of the scale. .45 Black Talon from a G21 gets a 12.6 and 10mm 200gr Norma FMJ out of a G20 gets a 12.7. A .260 with a 110gr bullet at 3100fps also gets a 12.7, while a .30-30 150gr @ 2100 from a T/C rates 13.9; about the same as 200gr Cor-Bon .45 +P from a 1911. .45 Hardball tends to get mid-twelves and even mild Federal .44 Special is kissing up to 10.0, while the stout .357 Silvertip out of a 4" tube barely tops 9.4.

I think I'll search for more formulae to plug in to the ol' spreadsheet; if I look long and hard enough, I should find one to make me happy with whatever pistol I feel like toting that day...

[Amelia]

"There are lies, damn lies, and statistics."

When you find the one that rates the Glock 19 highest, send it to me, please



Have a nice day, Tamara.

[tlhelmer]

Tamara, I dont think your beloved 10mm is big enough. Maybe you should look at the .454 Casul.

[WESHOOT2]

No point in using common sense or actual 'street' reports; let's just insist what 'we' own is the correct choice.

I own carry guns in 9x19, 38 Super, 38 Special, .357, 40 S&W, 41AE, 41 Mag, 44 Mag, and 45ACP. I'll carry my 45 Colt when I find some speedloaders.

Whew, covered.

Might add, even when living in Chicago, was never called on to defend myself from Jellotin (I like the red kind).


-----------------------------

"all my always are 22LR always"

[Tamara]

...if you like .45 or 10 mike-mike. There are 297 load/pistol combinations in my spreadsheet, currently. When sorted by "TKOV", numbers 1&2 are .44 Mag loads, and 3&4 are .45 Super. You then have to scroll all the way down to #50 to find the first non-.45 or 10mm Auto load; the 180gr SXT launched from a G24 longslide. The first .44 Spl bows at 64, the first .357 (Win STHP from a 4" 686) at 163, .357SIG at 171, and 9mm finally shows up at 181 with Cor-Bon's 147 +P from a G34 (behind such noted manstoppers as 180gr FMJ .40, 185gr WinClean from the P245, and Federal Gold Medal low-recoil .45 target loads). No wonder this statistic is a favorite of some of the more vocal proponents of the "They All Fall To Hardball" school.

PS:

Might add, even when living in Chicago, was never called on to defend myself from Jellotin (I like the red kind).

Everyone knows that Chicago gelatin is wimpy when compared to the tough Jell-o known to prowl The Bronx...

[mikey357]

Tamara...good post...many valid points/observations! It must be frustrating to put your best foot forward with a well-thought-out "Theory", only to have everyone and his brother shoot it full of holes [pun only SLIGHTLY intended]! Glad I didn't choose the "Theoretical Sciences" as a major-OR CAREER! WESHOOT2-if you are serious about SPEEDLOADERS for the .45 Colt, check out the SL Variant loaders carried by Dillon and cataloged in the "Blue Press".
I've got some for the seven-shot S&W Model 686 and they're GREAT!....mikey357

[Art Eatman]

One problem with all this rating system stuff is that it's so very hard to compare a guy shot directly in the heart with Cartridge "A" to a guy shot two or three inches from the heart with Cartridge "B".

A hit in the spinal column with a relatively pipsqueak cartridge is likely to be as effective as a head or heart shot with a SooperBoomer.

Then, factor in the nature of the person who is shot. A guy who has grown up with regular street-fighting as part of his life will react differently to a non-vital hit than a person with little prior history of pain. The first may well ignore a fairly serious wound; pain has been common in his life. The other might fall down and scream for help after a .22 rimfire hit to a leg muscle.

To me, this is summed up in Cooper's comment when asked if he shot to kill or to wound: "Neither; I shoot to stop." Thus, if a miss stops a Bad Guy, stop shooting. If it takes a reload, keep shooting.

After reading various articles over some 50 years, I conclude that for smaller diameter cartridges, velocity and bullet-style are more important. For larger diameter cartridges, weight becomes more important. From jury experience, I know that .38 Special HydraShoks are very effective. I'm reasonably convinced that Black Talons in a 10mm are good social loads. Were I to need to use a .380, I'd assume that rapid, multiple hits would be the order of the day...And I know, second-hand, that a man can survive a contact wound from a .44 Mag, when hit just below the collar-bone and about two inches in from the armpit. (Witnesses said muzzle-blast flame flared out from the man's back; the man did indeed stop his hostile actions.)

To me, about all one can do is generalize. I believe there are just too many variables to create a specific ranking of cartridges or bullets. It seems to me that there are "packages" of gun/cartridge/bullet which are usually effective, and that's about as far as I'd ever go. At some point it seems to me to be making a career of picking flypoop out of pepper.

As we know, however, gunwriters gotta write. Right?

FWIW, Art

[George Hill]

Talk about fuzzy math!

See - the problem with all these formulas... they don't take the biological aspects into account.
Will Power, Endorphines, Anger... these can play a huge effect... and you have not even gotten to ORGANS yet.

Might as well use IPSC's formula for POWER FACTOR...
There is NO WAY that you can create a mathmatical formula that can determin effect.

As Obi Wan said "Use the FORCE!"

[LawDog]

A * C / ñ

Where (A) equals your Ability to hit a target regularly, (C) equals the Comfort level, expressed as a percentage of time you will actually carry the weapon, and (ñ) is your Desire to seek situations requiring Use of Force.

So, using the LDKOF(tm) on it's Creator (famed chow-hound LawDog, please pay large bucks for auto-biography) using his P7 as an example:

A = (scale of 1 to 10) about a 6
C = 99% of the time
ñ = (scale of 1 to 10) right now about a 3

So we multiply 6 by 99 (54, carry the dewclaw...running out of toes here...) 594! (I think) and divide that by 3...198.

Same formula on the Loudenboomer .700 Handcannon:

A = 6 (I'm being generous here, Loudenboomer is paying advertising fees)

C = 5%

ñ = 3

Six times 5 is 30, divided by 3 equals 10.

The P7 is obviously far superior to the Loudenboomer.



LawDog

[Edited by LawDog on 12-02-2000 at 02:55 PM]

[WESHOOT2]

mikey357,


want them for a 45 Redhawk.....

[James K]

How come us good guys never feel that anything less than a .454 is adequate for defense, but the BGs keep bumping people off with .22, .25 and .32 chrome plated junkers.

Do "victims" have thinner skins?

Jim

[JimFox]

Haven't run across the original Mr. Taylor's formula (or don't remember it if I did). If it favors big loads, then that is what he came up with. (As I recall from one of his books, he advocated hunting barefooted under some circumstances as that was supposed help with stealth.)

Anyway I'd note that one of his (more or less) comtemporaries, Mr. Bell, also had an impressive record of elephant kills and he favored a 7mm.

[mikey357]

WESHOOT-I'm NOT SURE, but I THINK that the SL Variant Speedloaders that Dillon sells for the S&W Model 25-5 and 625 [for .45 "Long" Colt] WOULD work for the Redhawk...here's my logic...even tho' the catalog listing DOES NOT SPECIFICALLY say so, I believe they'll work BECAUSE both the HKS speedloaders AND the SL Variant speedloaders listed for the .44 Mag are shown to be usable with BOTH the S&W Model 629/29 AND the Redhawk...leads me to believe that the charge hole spacing in the cylinders is quite similar, IF NOT IDENTICAL!!! Following this line of reasoning, IF a speedloader works for the N-frame S&W in .45 Colt, it SHOULD work for the Redhawk, yes??? If I had a Redhawk in .45 Colt and wanted a speedloader to fit, I believe I'd give either Dillon or whoever imports the SL Variant [made in Germany, I believe] a call to verify this...BTW, these speedloaders are unique, at least in my experience, in being ADJUSTBLE as far as charge-hole spacing is concerned...kinda a neat feature!!!....mikey357

[Oleg Volk]

They merely want victims dead eventually, we want a near-instant stop. I am always amazed my how little most rounds under .308 penetrate. With that in mind, I consider 9x19 and .45 and anything under a .308 soft point to be inadequate. However, I also consider anything over 9x19 to be far too conspicuous for the no-issue commieland of mine...hence the compromise.
Interestingly, the gangbangers here tend to carry large guns and not hide them particularly well. That said, having seen those who actually practice atthe range, I would be more afraid to be a bystander than the intended victim.

[slabsides]

None of the quasi-statistical methodologies for rating pistol round effectiveness account for the 'coolness' factor of the nut attached to the trigger.
We are inclined to assume that all lethal confrontations are between adrenalin-hopped and frightened opponents. We are all aware of many instances where this is the case...13 to 41 shots fired, two peripheral hits. And we blame this on lack of training, because it's not PC to place the blame where it really belongs: lack of nerve (or coolness under fire, if you prefer.)
A cool determined shootist armed with almost any handgun of reasonable penetrative capability (think of James Butler Hickock and his .36 Navy Colts, or Jim Cirillo with his S&W .38, or Massad Ayoob's Dad with his .32, or the 80-year old lady who shot a would-be rapist to doll rags with a little .22 rifle) can clean the clock of any amateur gangbanger AND a few of his friends.
Training, experience, determination, and the conviction that one is in the right are more important than any other factor in a gunfight, as in any desperate endeavor. Most of the rest is secondary. I don't know how you can quantify that, and without it being considered, you can't have a true determination of what's effective.
Two of the four times I've had to defend with a gun, I was armed with a rimfire. I'm still here.

[Art Eatman]

30 or so years back, I worked with a guy who had been a USMC Medic in the South Pacific during the Disagreement with the Esteemed Empire. He commented that Japanese wounded were generally phlegmatic, suffering pretty calmly in silence until the Medics could do some repairs. U.S. guys, on the other hand, were candidates for shock--even with fairly minor wounds. My buddy attributed this difference to culture and to "expectations". The Japanese tooke it for granted that battle produced injuries or death, and pain was just part of the deal...

During the Vietnam era, some studies were done comparing GIs who were wounded in 'nam with civilians wounded by gunfire here in the States. The GIs went into shock much less, and survived more severe wounds.

There have been many posts here, before, commenting about how folks learn about guns from Hollywood. Folks also learn about the effects of guns from Hollystoopid, also. The gun goes bang, you're hit, you oughta die. Further, folks who have undergone little pain in their lives are more prone to be psychologically upset by it than the typical street-fighter.

To me, the average U.S. citizen is not psychologically prepared for any sort of "Bad Thing", whether gunshot, physical pain in general, or hard economic times. Mostly, too, they just don't want to think about it.

FWIW, Art

[mooser]

there are lots of variables involving consistent performance. 10% ordinance geleting seems to be the excepted testing medium. variables such as intermediate barriers: clothing, sheetrock, house and auto glass, plywood, etc. come into play as well in performance of penetration and expansion. the angle of shot entry and distance are also variables.

in self defense shootings shot placement is more important than which caliber or round that one uses. the shot has to hit its' intended target. after that the overall actual penetrattion and expansion of the projectile comes into play. bigger holes usually offer more trauma and bleeding.
with massive bleeding and trauma comes shock. if a bad guy can be put into shock then this should cease their hostile actions. other factors such as hitting and breaking a major
structural bone come into play as well. if you take out the spine, hit the head and ring their bell, take out a leg bone so they can't stand, etc. then this will help as well.

but there is also the human factors that come into play.
this has to do with their mindset, intent and motivation.
bad guys have been shot with a non lethal wound and have died simply due to shock. my partner shot a badguy that pulled a derringer on him, the badguy was hit in the hand only, he fell to the ground and went into shock believing he was dying. in the interview with the badguy later, he stated that he wanted to die, and he believed at the time that when you get shot by a cop that you die. other bad guys have been shot with lethal hits repeatidly and kept fighting, due to their mindset (fbi/miami incident. then the factors of narcotics and alcohol come into play, and well as their psychological condition.

imho: one should find a firearm, caliber and particular bullet that they are comfortable with. practice with that firearm lots and become as proficient as possible, and practice lots to stay proficient. if the time comes when one has to use that gun and ammunition for defense, then place that first bullet, and every bullet there after exactly where it needs to go and get the job done.

just my $.02

sully
http://www.defensive-edge.net

[riddleofsteel]

Some of what has been stated here is part of the reason that "One Shot Stop" figures are so slanted and unreliabile. How can the reaction of a frail geratric victim to a gunshot be compared to a well conditioned street fighter with a many scars as tattoos. Many factors are involved in how fast a person becomes incapacitated from a "immediately non-fatal" wound.
You must look at thier cardiovascular condition, mental attitude, level of adrenaline, muscular conditioning as well as if they are on any drugs or alcohol. Having seen literally dozens of gun shot victims come thru our emergency department, i can tell you that some folks will topple over from a .22 in the upper arm but more than you think will absorb several major torso hits from 9mm's, .40's or .45's and still be lucid and hard to hold down. My thoughts in these cases were that if one of these people has been someone i was facing in a gunfight they may well have been spending this time shooting back at me.
I am 5'10" and over 200lbs. Many of my friends have told me i have an "all business" and "mean" look to me. My conclusions are that anyone that attacks me for purposes of robbery, murder or the like is either mentally defective, on drugs, tough as hell or all three. I if i have to light them up i want to use something hot and big.
i.e.
a .45 or .40 with a good hollowpoint and high muzzle
velocity
my attacker may still survive and survive long enough to shoot back. but if they do it will not be because i wimped out in caliber or power factor selection just to carry a "comfortable" pistol.
as far as the Taylor formula...take from it this thought....

THE BIGGER AND HEAVIER THE PROJECTILE THE SLOWER IT CAN BE GOING AND STILL GET THE JOB DONE.

Of course this has its limits. we could shoot steel needles at the speed of light and the FT/LB figures would be in the tons. Yet we would do good to kill rats with such a load. However a .45 or .44 projectile traveling at 800 to 1000 fps has lain many a bad guy and game animal low. and that was not with wonder hollowpoints, just soft lead. I do not need a fancy table to tell me it works. Over 100 years of experience tells me it does.

[WESHOOT2]

Lessee.....one at $29, 10 = $290!

(Cause you gotta have ten for IPSC. Right?)

[HankB]

Tamara,

I think applying John Taylor's formula to serious social encounters is so much BS, as I believe you're implying in your original post. Taylor originated it to describe the effects of SOLIDS on head-shot elephant . . . though he did occasionally imply it might be useful in other instances. It simply wasn't meant to be used as the "other" Taylor is using it, and has no provision for bullet type at all.

Personally, I haven't seen a formula yet that I trust, which doesn't break down and give anomalous results when applied to SOME cartridge.

[griz]

You know if you don't like the placement of your favorite on a power list you can appeal to the court for a recount.

Seriously, in answer to Jim K's question, yes victims have thinner skins. I guess if you can "feel the pain" of your attacker you will be a great victim. Sort of gets back to the posts about mind set doesn't it.

[Dr.Rob]

Yes Karamojo Bell used a 7mm on elephant.. and sucessfully... but that NOT what you should use.

As for "taylor " values and stopping power.. I'd say a 30-30 up against a cape buffalo would rate about a 10% stopping power.. you wanna stop a charging rhino with a 30-30? Better shoot it 10 times at least.

But as for the "street stopping" power of a 458 winchester solid or 600 nitro express... well lats SAY your bad guy hides behind the engine block of a '41 Mercury... you'll still get your bad guy. Now the average ganag banger can't afford a quality double rifle in the $10,000 range and its not really concealable.. but you really can't argue with the "stopping power" of a big bore. Throw 5000 foot pounds of muzzle energy at any one and you are sure to get their attention, esp. if you score a hit.

Funny story I recall reading in Patterson's (man eaters of tsavo) Book where he fired at a lion with a steel ball in some enormous rifle (maybe a 3 inch .450), the lion took the load in the face under the left eye and kept coming at him, luckily his bearer ran away.. and the lion chased the bearer rather than the shooter.. taking Patterson's ammunition with him. Lesson leaned: sometimes soft points are better than solids and always carry your own ammo.

Boddington reinforces this in "safari rifles" wher he recommends loading your bolt rifle with 2 soft points on top of a solid, if youy can't knock it down with the first 2 you can definitely do it with the third. Granted Boddington was talking about shooting eland through BOTH front shoulders at 50 yards. in most "street" studies thats WAY TOO MUCH penetration.

Bottom line is Tamara.. handguns aren't rifles.. and grandpa's 30-30 doesn't cut the mustard against a 405 jeffery when it comes to knocking down a pachyderm that wants to throw you into the nearest briar patch..

but it sure does make for interesting discussion...

[Chris McDermott]

John Taylors "Knock-Out" formulae was for predicting just that - would the cartridge knock-out an elephant with a solid hit to the head, but one that missed the brain (non-fatal). This was a very important aspect of hunting elephant, as it was done at close quarters (typically under 50 yards, if not right inside the herd). A wounded, awake, elephant isn't something that anyone wants to play with; one that is wounded but unconscious isn't nearly as dangerous. It really doesn't apply to anything else.
A comparable formulae for people would probably say that anything heavier than a 95 grain 32 Magnum would work fine - a direct hit to the head would knock you out. Hits to the body or anything else aren't counted; or results predicted.

[BrokenArrow]

Have a very little kid roll a 16 pound bowling ball down the lane. Chrono it. Plug it into the formula. Will probably look like field artillery? Would much rather get hit with that than 9mm ball.

Elephants and lion have almost been wiped out by poachers armed with just .303 British from old Enfields and 7.62x39 from old AKs. Have probably killed more than the Big Bruisers...

Worked w a PD and a couple federal agencies a while back (80s) that used the 110 SJHP in 357s along side the 45 w 230 ball and 185 JHPs. The 110/357s seem to be as good/slight edge, and they didn't go as deep; obviously deep enough though?

[Hard Ball]

I have a great deal of respect for John Talior's knowledge and experience, but as I recall. it assumes that the bullet does not deform or yaw. While this is probably true when firing full metak jacketed bullets on large African game, it neglects the effects of bullet expansion on human targets. If stopping human attackers is what you are trying to evaluate you can't realistically ignore bullet expansion.