How many AR type rifles out there???

Skans · September 9, 2016, 09:55 AM

I am hearing more and more that folks who, in the past, never would have thought of purchasing an AR type rifle are now buying them. Older people. Revolver people. Traditional hunters. Even non-gun people. I just have to wonder how many AR style rifles and pistols are actually now in the hands of US citizens. Any guesses?

mavracer · September 9, 2016, 10:21 AM

Roughly a metric butt load.

5whiskey · September 9, 2016, 10:46 AM

I've seen numerous estimates... some state as low as 6 million and some as high as 30 million. I would personally guess about 18-20 million, personally...

MarkCO · September 9, 2016, 10:55 AM

I personally know of at least 5 acquaintances who have bought an AR15 this year who previously had no interest, maybe still don't, but bought it just in case. I know of a local businessman who bought 10 AR15s and $20K in ammo the day after SandyHook. It is all in a case in his safe room, never even opened the boxes. I have looked at some of the numbers from Industry and I agree the 6M is bogus, but I think the 30M might be a tad high.

K_Mac · September 9, 2016, 11:42 AM

Quote:

Roughly a metric butt load.

I am generally not a fan of using the metric system when the good ole imperial system will do. It was good enough for God, and it is good enough for me. However in this case, I think it gives us as accurate of a reasonably rough estimate as possible.

mavracer · September 9, 2016, 12:30 PM

Quote:

I have looked at some of the numbers from Industry and I agree the 6M is bogus, but I think the 30M might be a tad high.

I agree according to ATF stats ~ 20 million rifles manufactured from the Clinton ban til O'bummers first term and nearly another 20 million from 08 to 14 only need 15% of those to be EBRs to make 6 million sold since in that 20 year span.
That wouldn't include lowers, pistol ARs or 80%

pete2 · September 9, 2016, 12:57 PM

I recently bought an AR, never desired one, I'd rather have a new 1911 or CZ .22 rifle but with things as they are we may need them soon.

Old Bill Dibble · September 9, 2016, 03:13 PM

I am going to go with 15-20,000,000 but the numbers are probably much higher. Colt alone has made more than 200 different variants of the AR rifle.

Out of those I am guessing they are in the hands of 10,000,000 people more or less. If true that means that 3% of the people in the US own an AR rifle. That seems awfully low to me though. Practically everyone I know and work with owns at least one.

rickyrick · September 9, 2016, 03:32 PM

I'm thinking way more than anyone knows....

Probably impossible. If a person has three assembled lowers and six fully functional uppers; how many ARs do they own ?

2014 I started my AR journey. Like lots of people, I didn't want one for the longest time. I had lots of different reasons not to like them, none were realistic. Once I realized the versatility of them, I couldn't justify not owning one. Now I have a few.

K_Mac · September 9, 2016, 03:50 PM

Quote:

Out of those I am guessing they are in the hands of 10,000,000 people more or less. If true that means that 1/3 of 1% of the people in the US own an AR rifle. That seems awfully low to me though. Practically everyone I know and work with owns at least one.

10,000,000 is about 3% of 320,000,000 Bill. I think even 3% may be a little low, but I don't think there anyway of knowing how many are out there.

Old Bill Dibble · September 9, 2016, 04:12 PM

Me and my math....

Skans · September 9, 2016, 04:38 PM

Quote:

Like lots of people, I didn't want one for the longest time. I had lots of different reasons not to like them, none were realistic.

Ditto and ditto! Now I have 3 AR rifles and 1 AR pistol. There simply has never been a rifle that is 1/10th as versatile as the AR.

danco · September 10, 2016, 02:49 PM

Quote:

If a person has three assembled lowers and six fully functional uppers; how many ARs do they own ?

Technically, only three...

TMD · September 10, 2016, 02:51 PM

Quote:

Me and my math....

Old math, new math, or common core math?

Gunplummer · September 10, 2016, 05:48 PM

If you include potential parts stashes, a lot. There have been surplus parts available since the 70's. Where is it all?

Old Bill Dibble · September 10, 2016, 06:28 PM

Quote:

If you include potential parts stashes, a lot. There have been surplus parts available since the 70's. Where is it all?

Not in my basement I swear.

Shadow72 · September 13, 2016, 01:52 AM

Don't know about AR's but recently saw a article that placed the number of guns owned as 88.8 guns per 100 people here in the U.S. That number seems a bit low to me but that may be due to all my friends are gun owners.

mavracer · September 13, 2016, 07:48 AM

Quote:

Don't know about AR's but recently saw a article that placed the number of guns owned as 88.8 guns per 100 people here in the U.S.

Well the 2016 census has the US population at ~324 million 88% would be ~285 million. The ATF has manufacturing and import records right on there web sight that from 1986 (the first year they started keeping track) and 2014 (the last year they have published) there were ~200 guns put into circulation assuming that 2015 and 2016 are at least equal to 2014 that's at least another 25-30 million guns. That leaves me to believe they think there were only 55-60 million guns in private hands in 1985 ROTFLMAO

Old Bill Dibble · September 13, 2016, 07:31 PM

Sounds about right. The murder rate is less than half of what it was during the time period. A lot more guns in private hands per person might partly help explain it.

DaFlake · September 13, 2016, 08:58 PM

I bought one this year. Never owned one, but always wanted one. I may be moving to Germany, so it will go in storage, but at least I have something for when I return.

September 9, 2016, 09:55 AM	#1
Skans Senior Member Join Date: November 20, 2008 Posts: 11,332	How many AR type rifles out there??? I am hearing more and more that folks who, in the past, never would have thought of purchasing an AR type rifle are now buying them. Older people. Revolver people. Traditional hunters. Even non-gun people. I just have to wonder how many AR style rifles and pistols are actually now in the hands of US citizens. Any guesses?

September 9, 2016, 10:55 AM	#4
MarkCO Senior Member Join Date: October 22, 1998 Location: Colorado, USA Posts: 4,362	I personally know of at least 5 acquaintances who have bought an AR15 this year who previously had no interest, maybe still don't, but bought it just in case. I know of a local businessman who bought 10 AR15s and $20K in ammo the day after SandyHook. It is all in a case in his safe room, never even opened the boxes. I have looked at some of the numbers from Industry and I agree the 6M is bogus, but I think the 30M might be a tad high. __________________ Good Shooting, MarkCO www.CarbonArms.us

September 9, 2016, 03:13 PM	#8
Old Bill Dibble Senior Member Join Date: July 25, 2016 Posts: 802	I am going to go with 15-20,000,000 but the numbers are probably much higher. Colt alone has made more than 200 different variants of the AR rifle. Out of those I am guessing they are in the hands of 10,000,000 people more or less. If true that means that 3% of the people in the US own an AR rifle. That seems awfully low to me though. Practically everyone I know and work with owns at least one. Last edited by Old Bill Dibble; September 9, 2016 at 04:13 PM. Reason: Chucklehead math

September 9, 2016, 10:21 AM	#2
mavracer Senior Member Join Date: February 27, 2008 Location: midwest Posts: 4,209	Roughly a metric butt load.

September 9, 2016, 10:46 AM	#3
5whiskey Senior Member Join Date: October 23, 2005 Location: US Posts: 3,753	I've seen numerous estimates... some state as low as 6 million and some as high as 30 million. I would personally guess about 18-20 million, personally...

September 9, 2016, 12:57 PM	#7
pete2 Senior Member Join Date: May 15, 2012 Location: Texas Posts: 2,610	I recently bought an AR, never desired one, I'd rather have a new 1911 or CZ .22 rifle but with things as they are we may need them soon.

September 9, 2016, 03:32 PM	#9
rickyrick Senior Member Join Date: March 15, 2010 Posts: 8,388	I'm thinking way more than anyone knows.... Probably impossible. If a person has three assembled lowers and six fully functional uppers; how many ARs do they own ? 2014 I started my AR journey. Like lots of people, I didn't want one for the longest time. I had lots of different reasons not to like them, none were realistic. Once I realized the versatility of them, I couldn't justify not owning one. Now I have a few.

September 9, 2016, 04:12 PM	#11
Old Bill Dibble Senior Member Join Date: July 25, 2016 Posts: 802	Me and my math....

September 10, 2016, 05:48 PM	#15
Gunplummer Senior Member Join Date: March 11, 2010 Location: South East Pa. Posts: 3,364	If you include potential parts stashes, a lot. There have been surplus parts available since the 70's. Where is it all?

September 13, 2016, 01:52 AM	#17
Shadow72 Member Join Date: October 27, 2015 Location: Tejas Republic Posts: 70	Don't know about AR's but recently saw a article that placed the number of guns owned as 88.8 guns per 100 people here in the U.S. That number seems a bit low to me but that may be due to all my friends are gun owners.

September 13, 2016, 07:31 PM	#19
Old Bill Dibble Senior Member Join Date: July 25, 2016 Posts: 802	Sounds about right. The murder rate is less than half of what it was during the time period. A lot more guns in private hands per person might partly help explain it.

September 13, 2016, 08:58 PM	#20
DaFlake Junior Member Join Date: April 27, 2016 Posts: 7	I bought one this year. Never owned one, but always wanted one. I may be moving to Germany, so it will go in storage, but at least I have something for when I return.