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Old November 24, 2012, 01:00 PM   #1
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Join Date: April 16, 2012
Location: Idaho
Posts: 382
how accurate in NFA TRACKER DOT COM?

I was looking at the tracker

it looks like I have a 13% chance to get my suppressor in Feb 77% chance to get it in March and a 8% chance in Apr.

are these numbers accurate?

p.s. My status went pending 11/14/12
Always looking for a good hunt!
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Old November 25, 2012, 09:16 AM   #2
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Join Date: November 18, 2009
Location: Loudoun County, VA
Posts: 562
According to that calculator 99% of people would have received the stamp I'm awaiting, check cashed 6/5. So either it's not accurate or I'm having bad luck.
NRA Certified Pistol Instructor & RSO, IDPA Expert, Project Appleseed Rifleman
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Old November 25, 2012, 09:40 PM   #3
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Join Date: August 31, 2009
Location: New Mexico
Posts: 1,032
It's accurate as far as the limited information shown goes. Most transfers are not listed, and who knows how many are never updated if the form is returned for a problem, or is completed and the person making the listing simply failed to update it.
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Old November 26, 2012, 10:54 AM   #4
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It's only as accurate as the information it receives. It uses past data processing times to predict current wait times. Those times are constantly in flux which will limit the accuracy of the tracker. Suffice it to say it's right around 6 months currently on form 4's.
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Old November 26, 2012, 04:31 PM   #5
Join Date: November 9, 2012
Posts: 47
The NFA tracker relies on users submitting data. My last suppressor that was approved early October was about 6 months to the day from when my check was cashed.
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