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Old December 28, 2017, 08:04 AM   #1
bigbuck007
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From an collector investment point

Dear all,

based on that list, what would you say has the most potential to increase (in %) its collector value most over the next 10 years.

Auto Ordnance; Savage - Thompson SA (1928A1) build in 1940

Steyr - MP34ö = MP34ö SA build in 1942

Haenel; Steyr; Erma - MP40 build in 1942

Eidgenössische Waffenfabrik (W + F) - Furrer MP41/44 build in 1944

Haenel - MP28 SA build in 1928

Erma - MP38 = build in 1940

Enfield - Bren MkI .303 Brit build in 1940

Colt M16A1 build in 1970

Waffenwerke Brünn - MG30t / ZB30t 8*57IS build in 1935


I am not asking for the present value of each model just a percentage increase for the future.

Consider that all models are original and in working condition

thank you for your thoughts.

br

bigbuck
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Old December 28, 2017, 08:08 AM   #2
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US wise, it depends on who is president and what their gun policies are.
Could be the sub machine guns are worth a million each or zero.
Tell us that and we can make you a billionaire.
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Old December 28, 2017, 08:16 AM   #3
bigbuck007
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Sorry i forgott to mention,

please - for your thoughts turn off the present law and consider a positive change (only for outdated systems up to and including WW2 )

So it is a generic question at this time.
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Old December 28, 2017, 01:31 PM   #4
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Where you are will make the most difference. German stuff, Stateside, will likely grow faster due to a lack of supply vs high demand. When the thing was made doesn't matter much. Different collectors for pre-war stuff.
A 1928A1 Thompson built in 1940 is not as valuable as one made in 1928 is now. There's one on Gunbroker now valued at 20 grand US. Know a guy who has one made in the 20's that's never been fired. Makes it virtually priceless.
"...turn off the present law..." You cannot do that. Far too many political decisions are made that directly affect collector values. All it takes is a politician to have a whim that requires all collectors to turn in their property for destruction.
The ATF's 'Once an MG always an MG' that they exported to Canada caused the values of an entire class of firearm to plummet in value. No market for firearms the average shooter cannot own.
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Old December 28, 2017, 07:18 PM   #5
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Colt M16A1 build in 1970
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Old December 29, 2017, 01:41 PM   #6
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Quote:
"...turn off the present law..." You cannot do that. Far too many political decisions are made that directly affect collector values
I agree. You cannot ignore the effect of the law on the value of automatic weapons, in the US.

The current "value" of registered full auto firearms is ENTIRELY due to the law. Specifically, the Hughes Amendment to the FOPA, which froze the legal registry. Since no new arms could legally be added, the value of legally transferrable full auto (those already on the registry) skyrocketed.

There are only three possible futures, one is that nothing changes, in which case, your full autos (assuming they are on the registry) will increase in value, but at what rate, I cannot say.

The other possibilities, are that the law will be tightened, possibly to the point where there are no legal full autos allowed for civilian sale, in which case, your collection becomes worthless.

The third possibility is that the restrictions will be eased. Not likely, nor probable, but not impossible. If that happens, the artificially inflated value of full autos will drop. That $20,000 Tommygun could, overnight, become a $2000 tommy gun. (or, perhaps, even less)

I think there are too many unknowns and unknowable things in the future for anyone to make any kind of accurate prediction on the value increase of your collection, in whole, or part.
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Old December 29, 2017, 09:08 PM   #7
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Note that the original poster is not from the US, so our laws don't count. If laws are ignored (or the OP is in an official capacity) in the US, the Swiss Furrer would be the rarest, since few have been released and none were sold on the surplus market or brought back as war trophies. Most of the others are scarce, but not as rare. The Thompson is the most common in the US (thousands were sold as DEWATS, then opened up during the 1968 amnesty); the German MP 38/40's are also fairly common, being a favorite war trophy.

Jim
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Old December 30, 2017, 09:45 AM   #8
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Quote:
I am not asking for the present value of each model just a percentage increase for the future.
"...Percentage increase..."?! Impossible to answer. You are asking to predict future interest in particular firearms. As with PBS's "Antiques Roadshow", sometimes the value of an antique will go down due to the changing of public interest.
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Old December 30, 2017, 09:53 AM   #9
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Quote:
Note that the original poster is not from the US, so our laws don't count.
I was wondering what the "deal" is, machine guns are illegal in Germany- and you can't own them here if you're not a citizen. So, where are the guns..?
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Old December 31, 2017, 11:13 PM   #10
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As a general rule, when we talk prices, we talk RETAIL prices. But anyone who has sold guns, either one at a time or in disposing of a collection will learn that when the purchaser is a dealer, the seller will (if lucky) get wholesale price. This applies to current production guns (why would a dealer pay YOU more for a used gun than he would pay his distributor for a new one), but also to most used and antique guns. A dealer, by definition, is buying in order to sell at a profit; he can't pay retail and stay in business.

So anyone selling a gun, whether a prized collectors item or an ordinary sporting firearm needs to look outside those retail price guides and on-line prices to see how much that handgun or rifle will really bring.

Jim
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Old January 2, 2018, 05:18 AM   #11
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Dear all,

First a Happy New Year to you.

Thank you for your good toughts on this complicated issue.

As far as i am involved i made good succes buying 15 years ago a C96 and a Pistole 08 from WWI. There present value increased well and having all this time fun shooting it- so no safe queens..
The same looks good for my last year purchase MP43 (with discreet and legal semi-auto alteration) Of course the only way you can legaly posses such a time piece.

I will go for the M16 because its a nice shooter with a lot of techn. inovation and the Furrer because it is technically outstanding (swiss art) both (with discreet and legal semi-auto alteration)

br

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Old January 3, 2018, 01:53 AM   #12
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The answer to your question is that there is no way to tell which firearm will perform better, valuation-wise, in the future. The reason is the efficient market hypothesis.

So just pick what you like. Or throw a dart.

There have been vast studies of professional stock pickers, and they almost always, in the long run, underperform the broader market. Do some research on the efficient market hypothesis, and you will find that out why (although with stock pickers and investment advisors, churning often also comes into play).

https://www.ifa.com/articles/summary...stock_picking/
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Old January 3, 2018, 05:14 PM   #13
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^^^
Heck, with CB's running the worldwide equity markets and refusing to allow a decline doesn't matter much what's picked lol...

In this environment, stock pickers can't outperform and justify their fees. But heck, that's why Vanguard (IIRC) invented the index fund
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Old January 4, 2018, 04:18 PM   #14
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I always crack up inside when I hear stock ‘experts’ talk about which stocks or asset class will take off next or what to buy. Many people always point to the genius known as Jim Cramer. Well, Jim Cramer loses to the market. For some reason, people just assume JC beats the market.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ji...ket-2016-05-13

https://www.kiplinger.com/article/in...-the-most.html

Then they bring up Warren Buffet. Well, WB nowadays gets premium discounts on his buys because companies want to lure him in for his cache, so of course he’s going to beat the market. Also, he’s sat on his stock buys for decades. He’s not really a trader/picker.

EMH is like gravity. You don’t have to believe in it. It forces itself on you and smashes you in the face, like it or not.

That’s why when people ask about the future value of something, anything...the uncomfortable answer is always...there is no way to know. Those who give the right answer will tout their expertise. Those who give the wrong answer will stay quiet.
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Old January 7, 2018, 02:42 PM   #15
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No matter where in the world you are, the value will be determined by market demand. The more difficult it is to legally buy and own the item, the more that affects market demand.

The rarity affects asking prices, but cannot and does not set the demand.

Under current US law, there is a "three tier" system for full auto firearms. We can use the classic Tommygun as an example, in all three cases.

one "tier" is guns that are registered with the govt, but not on the civilian registry. These guns are held by dealers, and govt organizations, and are only allowed to be sold to dealers and govt. organizations, not to the public. The "value" of a Tommygun on that list is pretty low, less than a couple thousand, and maybe only a few hundred dollars. The reason is low demand. The only people who can buy them are govt/ police/ and dealers who sell to those customers, and those customers don't want Tommyguns, these days, so the price is low.

Another Tommygun (identical other than ser#), but on the Civilian Registry, able to be owned by private citizens (in compliance with the rest of the laws_ go for $20-40,000 or more, because the supply is small, and fixed, and the demand is comparatively high.

A third Tommygun, never registered with the govt (and under current law, not allowed to be!) is worth 10 years in jail. It cannot be legally sold (in the US) and its illegal to own.

Other places around the world have their own laws, and the degree of effect those laws have on the market value of a full auto varies, but there is always an effect.

I understand the question, and the interest behind it, but reality is no one can give you anything more than a guess. Go ask the Magic 8 ball, or a gypsy fortune teller, their answers are just as possible as anything we might predict here.

Good Luck!
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