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Old July 20, 2019, 11:56 AM   #1
ammo.crafter
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NJ gun owners

I just finished reviewing another bunch of new laws signed by New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy. He vows to make NJ the gun-free state.
Am curious if any of the Governor’s despotic laws have impacted crime. Since the mainstream media declines to print any news that may present private gun ownership in a positive view or the failure of gun control legislation to reduce crime, if anyone has crime vs legislation stats I would appreciate same.
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Old July 20, 2019, 01:40 PM   #2
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Am curious if any of the Governor’s despotic laws have impacted crime.
1. New Jersey has long had draconian gun control.

2. New Jersey ranks near the bottom with 228 violent crimes per 100,000 citizens.

3. States having the most violent crimes per 100,000 citizens are Alaska (829), New Mexico (783), Tennessee (651)

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...the-us-states/
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Old July 20, 2019, 01:44 PM   #3
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The FBI published crime statistics by state on an annual basis. We are now in 2019 so the most recent data available will probably be only up through 2018 (or maybe 2017), but it's a start. I don't have a link handy, but you should be able to access the reports through a search engine.
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Old July 20, 2019, 03:10 PM   #4
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NJ gun owners

I’m out... sort of.

Bought a house 10 minutes from work in Maine. Still down in Georgia for training, and have another five weeks to go. Then, packing everything up and making the final move. Also have to stop in Pennsylvania to grab all the stuff that Mr Ed turned illegal by a swipe of the pen (which I’m shocked he even knows how to spell his own name).

Cost of living, taxes, and everything else is outrageous in NJ. I have a similar house, a little more property (with a stream nearby), and paid less than half for it and will be about a quarter of the taxes. I’m glad to be out of that cesspool.

Last edited by Screwball; July 20, 2019 at 09:38 PM.
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Old July 20, 2019, 03:43 PM   #5
Armed_Chicagoan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thallub
1. New Jersey has long had draconian gun control.

2. New Jersey ranks near the bottom with 228 violent crimes per 100,000 citizens.
The question was if NJ's crime ever fell in response to the laws. That it has less crime than some other states is irrelevant.
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Old July 20, 2019, 03:45 PM   #6
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I’m out... sort of.

Bought a house 10 minutes from work in Maine. Still down in Georgia for training, and have another five weeks to go. Then, packing everything up and making the final move. Also have to stop in Pennsylvania to grab all the stuff that Mr Ed turned illegal by a swipe of the pen (which I’m shocked he even knows how to spell his own name).

Cost of living, taxes, and everything else is outrageous in NJ. I have a similar house, a little more property (with a stream nearby), and paid less than half for it and will be about a quarter of the taxes. I’m glad to be out of that [dump].

Felt the same way when I left NYC to go to college; except for 3 years in CO/ND, I have always enjoyed living in a state with ZERO state income taxes. Where I live now, my taxes are about $600/year, my monthly utility bill was $260 - for five utilities - gas, water, sewer, electric and garbage; two months ago it was $105, but since the heat has been 95+ for 60 days, it's gone up a little. Sure don't mind my small town that is 20 minutes from a very large city. Close enough for doctors and major shopping, far enough away so traffic, crime etc. are basically non-existent.

As to the crime stats, IDK if NYC's crime rates being less than a few decades ago are due to tight gun control or just better policing methods.
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Old July 21, 2019, 05:14 AM   #7
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2. New Jersey ranks near the bottom with 228 violent crimes per 100,000 citizens.
Sorry, these statistics do not tell the whole story. If you have to drive through Newark NJ or Camden NJ at night, as I sometimes used to have to do, if you’re like me, you don’t feel secure. But circumstances required me to have to do it on occaision.

When I lived in PA where I had a license to carry, but I worked in Salem, NJ where I couldn’t legally carry, and I had to drive through Wilmington DE each way where I couldn’t legally carry, I didn’t feel safe when I had to drive home after dark, which I had to do quite often. The first rule of carrying a firearm is to avoid situations which require you to carry in the first place which is sometimes difficult to do.
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Old July 21, 2019, 08:01 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by ammo.crafter View Post
I just finished reviewing another bunch of new laws signed by New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy. He vows to make NJ the gun-free state.
Am curious if any of the Governor’s despotic laws have impacted crime. Since the mainstream media declines to print any news that may present private gun ownership in a positive view or the failure of gun control legislation to reduce crime, if anyone has crime vs legislation stats I would appreciate same.
It is estimated that 'about' 30-33% of the population of NJ are gun owners..'about' 3 million gun owners. Curious as to how this governor or any term limited governor can make any state 'gun free'??

Just curious...

People complain about Colorado's new governor and how 'bad' it has gotten in Colorado..

I just bought a shotgun..took about 10 minutes..about 3 weeks ago I bought a Glock 43..took about 10 minutes. I went to Tanner Gun Show yesterday...lots of people walking out with all sorts of new purchases....

So..
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Old July 21, 2019, 09:08 AM   #9
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violent crimes also include domestic assaults (most of which are misdemeanors) and sexual assaults (most of which are committed by a person known to the victim). if you want to compare armed robbery and other street crime (stranger on stranger) it will give you a better idea of what the average person would face in the day to day environment.
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Old July 21, 2019, 11:05 AM   #10
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I just finished reviewing another bunch of new laws signed by New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy. He vows to make NJ the gun-free state.
Well whenever Gov. Murphy makes a personal appearance to spew the anti-gun rhetoric at all of the gun-free zones throughout New Jersey, members of his personal security force are standing close by and armed to the teeth. In New Jersey the qualification for getting a concealed carry permit is that your occupation requires that you carry a gun, so the governor’s bodyguards qualify. Same for Gov. Newsom out here in CA. The fact that you can’t afford to hire an armed guard doesn’t qualify you to have a concealed carry license. It’s all of the hypocrisy involved here that you just can’t deal with.
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Old July 21, 2019, 11:08 AM   #11
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Originally Posted by JERRYS. View Post
violent crimes also include domestic assaults (most of which are misdemeanors) and sexual assaults (most of which are committed by a person known to the victim). if you want to compare armed robbery and other street crime (stranger on stranger) it will give you a better idea of what the average person would face in the day to day environment.
I don't trust any rankings where the statistics are based on government figures. Many use "creative" calculations and figures to skew the results to make them say what they want them to say. What might be a violent crime in one place is not a crime in another. What is reportable in one place might be reportable in another. Figures lie and liars figure.
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Old July 21, 2019, 11:24 AM   #12
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Originally Posted by osbornk View Post
I don't trust any rankings where the statistics are based on government figures. Many use "creative" calculations and figures to skew the results to make them say what they want them to say. What might be a violent crime in one place is not a crime in another. What is reportable in one place might be reportable in another. Figures lie and liars figure.
that use to be the case with the UCR, but now NIBRs has taken that under reporting trick out of the hands of the agencies. a report cannot be submitted without clearing the NIBRs requirements. the choices for feckless police leadership is to either not do a report or report the incident as something different that was reported by the victim; or not use any type of reporting data... this won't fly in court....
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Old July 21, 2019, 11:40 AM   #13
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Yes, crime stats can be easily manipulated. A favorite tactic in Chicago, for example, is to downgrade a robbery into "theft of lost or mislaid property" even when it was forcibly taken from a victim. Or they make reporting crimes so time-consuming and impractical that much goes unreported.

Last edited by Armed_Chicagoan; July 21, 2019 at 12:00 PM.
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Old July 21, 2019, 01:11 PM   #14
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For those who don't want to even look at the FBI statistics because you don't trust them ... what's your alternative for the OP, who wants to find some statistics that prove or disprove the NJ governor's position?
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Old July 22, 2019, 11:35 PM   #15
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. what's your alternative for the OP, who wants to find some statistics that prove or disprove the NJ governor's position?
My answer is simple in principle, difficult in practice and not really helpful..

Simply, get rich. Rich enough to commission (buy) your own study. Plenty of folks out there who will come up with statistics to prove or disprove what ever position you are paying for them to take. Then you get to claim a "valid statistical study" shows.....(insert your claim here)

Until /unless someone challenges your study and debunks it with THEIR study...

Ever notice that when someone is advertising to get you to invest/buy stocks, there's always a disclaimer about how "past performance is no guarantee of future results" ? (probably some law requiring it...)

WHY isn't there such a disclaimer about other "studies"???
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Old July 23, 2019, 12:31 AM   #16
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Suppose those doctored FBI statistics support our position despite having been (maybe) fudged a bit?

Link to the FBI data for 2017:

https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s.../violent-crime

Let's look first at national averages:

Violent crime: 394 per 100,000 population
Murder and non-negligent manslaughter: 5.3 per 100,000
Rape: 41.7 per 100,000
Robbery: 98.0 per 100,000
Aggravated assault: 248.9 per 100,000


Now let's look at New Jersey:

Violent crime: 228.8 per 100,000 population
Murder and non-negligent manslaughter: 3.6 per 100,000
Rape: 16.7 per 100,000
Robbery: 87.7 per 100,000
Aggravated assault: 120.8 per 100,000


Wow! New Jersey is better than the national average in all categories. Gun control must work, right? Then let's look at Pennsylvania, which is right across the river from NJ. PA allows unlicensed open carry, and a concealed carry permit costs (IIRC) $25 for five years, with no training requirement, only a basic criminal background check.

Pennsylvania:

Violent crime: 313.3 per 100,000 population [well below national average]
Murder and non-negligent manslaughter: 5.8 per 100,000 [slightly worse than the national average]
Rape: 32.8 per 100,000 [well below the national average]
Robbery: 92.1 per 100,000 [below the national average]
Aggravated assault: 182.6 per 100,000 [well below the national average]


Hmmm ... New Jersey's numbers are a bit better than Pennsylvania's. BUT ... Pennsylvania's numbers are still much better than the national average, and not all that far behind New Jersey, withOUT the benefit of the draconian (and potentially unconstitutional) anti-gun laws. Then factor in the possibility that New Jersey may (speculation on my part!) be cooking the books on what they report to the FBI more than Pennsylvania does, and I think even the FBI's statistics bear out the argument that draconian gun control isn't as effective in controlling crime as the proponents want us to believe.
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Old July 23, 2019, 08:44 AM   #17
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There are far too many variables for those statistics to have any bearing whatsoever on the relationship between firearm laws and crime.
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Old July 23, 2019, 10:48 AM   #18
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There are far too many variables for those statistics to have any bearing whatsoever on the relationship between firearm laws and crime.
We may decide to trust the FBI statistics or to not trust them, but they are statistics. I think it's a stretch to say they have no bearing whatsoever on the relationship between gun laws and crime.

Pick an anti-gun law. What year was it passed? Dredge up the FBI statistics for the five years before passage and the five years after passage. Did any category of violent crime go down significantly following passage of the law? If so, maybe the law had some effect. If not -- clearly the law didn't accomplish what it was intended to accomplish.
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Old July 23, 2019, 11:05 AM   #19
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Lower violent crime is a good thing, no matter the cause, yes?
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Old July 23, 2019, 11:15 AM   #20
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I think it's a stretch to say they have no bearing whatsoever on the relationship between gun laws and crime.

There is a significant difference between a relationship, and a cause/effect conclusion.

Correlation is not causation.

I'll point it out again, statistics are a compilation of facts. Conclusions "based" on statistics are OPINIONS, and may or may not be accurate, or even relevant.

Suppose you do a study and find that 99.9995% of convicted murders in the US ate bread or a bread product within 30 days of committing murder. That would be a fact. Stating that bread or bread products cause murder, so we should ban/restrict bread flour is a conclusion, an opinion, NOT a fact.

There is a way, statistically to reduce all crime in New Jersey to 0 (zero).
Abolish the state of New Jersey!

Statistically, it would work!
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Old July 23, 2019, 06:19 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by 44 AMP
There is a significant difference between a relationship, and a cause/effect conclusion.

Correlation is not causation.
Understood. Which is why my statement included the word "maybe." However, if statistics following the passage on an anti-gun law (or three, or six) show NO decrease in violent crime, then I think it's fairly safe to say the law(s) didn't accomplish what they were [purportedly] intended to accomplish.

Let's not forget the original question that started this discussion:

Quote:
Originally Posted by ammo.crafter
Since the mainstream media declines to print any news that may present private gun ownership in a positive view or the failure of gun control legislation to reduce crime, if anyone has crime vs legislation stats I would appreciate same.
If we know the date of passage of a law, the FBI stat can be used to compare crime rates before against crime rates after. It may not prove causation, but if there isn't even a correlation, then we've learned something.

Secondly, you can dig into the FBI stats beyond the state level, to get data on individual cities and metropolitan areas. By comparing the stats for states and cities with strict anti-gun laws against states and cities with "lax" gun control laws, we can at least see if there's a correlation. If the stats don't show a statistically significant correlation ... again, we've learned something.
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Old July 23, 2019, 11:19 PM   #22
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There are also MANY related factors to crime rates. How common is organized crime, drug use, youth unemployment, etc? Were there sentencing changes for crimes? Did the definition of crimes change? How was the economy? How much of the young adult population was exposed to significant quantities of lead as children (which actually correlates really well to many crime statistics!).
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Old July 24, 2019, 07:43 AM   #23
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violent crime and non-violent crime stats generally follow demographics and certain political strongholds. a comparison between NJ and Penna was made but this includes violent political strongholds of Philadelphia and Pittsburg. "breaking" in to unlocked cars and stealing laptops and Rayban sunglasses does not equal night club shootings. I know politics is not welcome here but if you want an honest look at what is truly violent crime you have to look at the local stats which sway the state average as a whole. Illinois is a good example of how political strongholds and their violence make the rest of the state look bad in aggregate. Vermont is a left leaning state with low violent street crime and very few gun restrictions. it is also a bit more homogenous population wise.
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Old July 24, 2019, 10:59 AM   #24
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Originally Posted by JERRYS.
violent crime and non-violent crime stats generally follow demographics and certain political strongholds. a comparison between NJ and Penna was made but this includes violent political strongholds of Philadelphia and Pittsburg.
And New Jersey includes such bucolic locations as Newark and Camden.

Quote:
"breaking" in to unlocked cars and stealing laptops and Rayban sunglasses does not equal night club shootings.
Breaking into unlocked cars is also typically not classified as a violent crime.

Quote:
I know politics is not welcome here but if you want an honest look at what is truly violent crime you have to look at the local stats which sway the state average as a whole.
Which is why I mentioned that the FBI statistics also include data by city and by metropolitan area if you want to drill down that far.

The opening post in this thread asked for sources of statistics. The FBI has statistics. Are they infallible? No. If you know of a better source to which to refer the OP, feel free to provide a link.

Another potential resource would be the work of John Lott. However, I don't have any links.
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Old July 24, 2019, 11:04 AM   #25
JERRYS.
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Originally Posted by Aguila Blanca View Post
And New Jersey includes such bucolic locations as Newark and Camden.


Breaking into unlocked cars is also typically not classified as a violent crime.


Which is why I mentioned that the FBI statistics also include data by city and by metropolitan area if you want to drill down that far.

The opening post in this thread asked for sources of statistics. The FBI has statistics. Are they infallible? No. If you know of a better source to which to refer the OP, feel free to provide a link.

Another potential resource would be the work of John Lott. However, I don't have any links.
which is why I cautioned the OP with general crime stats. As I said before, a better understanding of violent crime which would effect the general populous is to omit sexual offenses and domestic abuse because of the majority of victim/offender familiarity.
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