Is the AR market going to survive under current conditions? - Page 2

MarkCO · March 14, 2017, 09:02 AM

There are already a few AR focused companies that have gone under.

I have seen a few builder kits (with decent parts) for as low as $269, so add a blem $50 lower and $319 is a pretty good deal. I still have not seen one I would actually consider owning for less than $600 though.

If you buy an AR15 today for $400 as an investment, you are gambling that you will be able to sell it for about $700 in 4 years or $1400 in 8 years. While I know a guy with a pallet of ARs he bought at $520/unit (100K of ammo too) for an investment, I am not convinced it is a good risk to reward play.

But yes, the AR market will survive, and in some segments thrive. All the small companies are scrambling to get AR9 parts in play, and some are junk, but some are pretty good. More and more people are hunting with ARs as well, so those more potent calibers will see some improvement in the next few years.

Skans · March 14, 2017, 10:05 AM

Quote:

But yes, the AR market will survive,

I agree, it will survive. Someone will come out with a different configuration that looks cool and may even add a little more functionality, and it will take off. I don't know what that will be, but it will be.

osbornk · March 14, 2017, 11:17 AM

The AR15 is to the rifle what the 1911 is to pistols. I will be around for much the same reasons (good, affordable and universal parts). It will weed out the poor and/or inefficient manufacturers but the AR market will be around for many decades.

fourbore · March 14, 2017, 11:57 AM

I am looking for the deal of the day for an upper receiver. Not stripped, not a complete upper. Aero or perhaps Anderson. Where are the deals on those today?

rickyrick · March 14, 2017, 12:44 PM

Aero has blemished uppers from time to time, I've yet to find any blemishes.

Nathan · March 14, 2017, 12:44 PM

The AR market is dying. If you have other products, soon you will drop pr minimize AR products.

If you have a solid name and rep, you will continue along with steady sales and decreasing prices. Hopefully your profit margins are set right.

If you have big flash today, but were nothing a year ago, you will have too much investment and loss to get right and will die out or change.

If you are on the fringes, buckle down, this is gonna be a ride!

rickyrick · March 14, 2017, 12:48 PM

I think when free pmags and BCGs are getting bundled into every order, something is up. I bought a scope, and a free $80 mount was thrown in.

Seems like they are hurting for sales, when the surplus dries up we will see who's left standing.

In 2.5 years we could have another panic. We will have a better idea who the dem candidate might be.

FTG-05 · March 14, 2017, 01:34 PM

If the HPA (Hearing Protection Act) passes, I expect to see a lot of AR manufacturers turn to making off the shelf suppressors for every gun know to man. Then the whole gun business will increase to start turning out all kinds of guns that will take suppressors out the door. Ruger has already started doing this.

It's a great time to be gun onwer!

pturner67 · March 14, 2017, 01:44 PM

Just wait. If the current leadership underperforms, the next cycle will produce panic buying and prices will go up. Prices are low now. I suggest dollar cost averaging while you can.

Fishbed77 · March 14, 2017, 04:26 PM

Quote:

You wouldn't know it by the Geissele trigger prices... they went up.

Maybe sales are down and they are trying to make more profit off of each sale?

It won't work.

Gunplummer · March 14, 2017, 09:03 PM

If you watch the internet auctions, you can see the prices of "Black rifles" just keep falling. Some of you are confusing the sale of complete guns with kits. The market is flooded with cheap kits and 80% receivers right now and it is giving the complete rifle sales a beating.

Ignition Override · March 15, 2017, 01:44 AM

stagpanther: Exactly. People seem to believe that there will be no more panics, connected to an unthinkable tragedy as in the past. Let's pray that such nightmares never again happen.

Even if there are no more panics induced by reckless comments from politicians in the majority party of the US House or Senate, watch out for (never-ending) new anti-Second Amendment state legislation in MD, NY, NJ, CT, MA, CA and any other state with anti-gun attitudes in highly-populated urban areas.

.

fourbore · March 15, 2017, 12:42 PM

Quote:

f you watch the internet auctions, you can see the prices of "Black rifles" just keep falling. Some of you are confusing the sale of complete guns with kits. The market is flooded with cheap kits and 80% receivers right now and it is giving the complete rifle sales a beating.

I dont see the big sales. Can someone provide a few links. I could use a upper assembled receiver (not a complete upper) just a receiver. Aero or Anderson.

I found one for $72 here:
http://www.tomstactical.com/aero-pre...eiver-assembly

I would expect more like $50 or $60 or less to hear all the dumping talk on this forum. Any deals on nice varmint barrels in 6 point something. I mean cheap cheap ... Or floating forearms, those always been crazy money. Did the forarms crash?

Is rock river arms or anderson slashing prices? I dont see that.

Fishbed77 · March 15, 2017, 01:47 PM

Quote:

There are already a few AR focused companies that have gone under.

None of the good ones have gone under.

BCM, DD, LWRC, KAC, Noveske, and even Colt are still in business.

My guess is that they are going nowhere.

rickyrick · March 15, 2017, 05:02 PM

I got a $59 BCG 6.8 PSA
Half price keymod AeroPrecision handguard
Buy 5 boxes of ammunition get 5 pmags
Can find uppers for $35-$40 when I look.
I even seen a 50 pack of stripped lowers
Bought a vortex scope and got an $87 mount for free
Heck, my latest project was put together from my inbox

Get on daily deal mailings.

Gunplummer · March 15, 2017, 05:25 PM

get on Gunbroker.com and punch up 80% receivers or parts kits.

fourbore · March 16, 2017, 06:35 AM

Quote:

I got a $59 BCG 6.8 PSA
Half price keymod AeroPrecision handguard
Buy 5 boxes of ammunition get 5 pmags
Can find uppers for $35-$40 when I look.
I even seen a 50 pack of stripped lowers
Bought a vortex scope and got an $87 mount for free
Heck, my latest project was put together from my inbox

wow! I need most of that upper related stuff.

Ok, so; I did a google on "daily deal website" and I got a lot of hits. Which one? Do you have a link to home page for this service?

I used to have a favorite link to a website that scoured the web for gun deals. This one:

https://gunwatcher.com/ar15--aero-up...est-price-link

a quick search for aero upper get me $89. Not so good.

Gunplumber, Thank you. I dont need any lower stuff. I was on Gun Broker a while back and did not see anything to jump on for upper end parts.

stagpanther · March 16, 2017, 06:53 AM

Take it from me DO NOT BUY EXTRA STRIPPED LOWERS--they are ladder drugs for an addiction to building endless AR's and you will soon be forced to buy VERY expensive large safes!

BTW, I just found a spare lower in one of my shelves, any suggestions?

rickyrick · March 16, 2017, 07:15 AM

Fourbore,
Go to each manufacturer/supplier's website, most have a sign-up for deals. Some call them "daily deals" "email blast" and so on. Even some of the more expensive places like rainier will have good email deals.
Most are doing some sort of combo deals right now.

You have to be ready to buy, they don't last long in most cases.

O4L · March 16, 2017, 09:50 AM

I have found slickguns.com very helpful over the years.

fourbore · March 16, 2017, 10:13 PM

Quote:

Take it from me DO NOT BUY EXTRA STRIPPED LOWERS--they are ladder drugs for an addiction to building endless AR's ...

You hit the nail right on the head. I stocked up in anticipation and the rest is history.

I will get my self on some mailing lists. I dont mind paying up a little for a barrel. As long as there are deals out there, I like to take advantage for some of the other parts.

Ignition Override · March 16, 2017, 11:00 PM

Another website has a comment that three major sporting good chains (Gander, along with two others) now list Pre-Election prices for ARs.

With 'ARs', 'M4s' all over Armslist, there's no way that my slightly-used, stock S&W M&P Sport II will receive any offers, even at $100 below last spring's retail prices: about $750 with tax.

The only adult responding to my add indicated that people are waiting for deflation to bring most prices down to $550. Ironic that my prefered rifles-the better AKs-have gone up so much.

f2shooter · March 18, 2017, 10:17 PM

I had been looking around for an AR most of last year but nothing caught my eye. Two days after the election a friend called and a neighbor was selling off his unfired AR based on election results. I got an excellent deal and enjoy having it. I may add a couple to my safe this next year not as investments but as a good thing to have around the house or in the car. I wish the price on HK 91's would find some sanity.

Rick H.

katonahjohn · March 20, 2017, 06:48 PM

I get email ads from one of the companies that I do business with. Latest offering had three brand new AR's under $500.00, and a supressor for $749.00. Of course they aren't what you would call top of the line AR's, but they are quite a bit more complicated to make than the surpressor..

March 14, 2017, 09:02 AM	#26
MarkCO Senior Member Join Date: October 21, 1998 Location: Colorado, USA Posts: 4,308	There are already a few AR focused companies that have gone under. I have seen a few builder kits (with decent parts) for as low as $269, so add a blem $50 lower and $319 is a pretty good deal. I still have not seen one I would actually consider owning for less than $600 though. If you buy an AR15 today for $400 as an investment, you are gambling that you will be able to sell it for about $700 in 4 years or $1400 in 8 years. While I know a guy with a pallet of ARs he bought at $520/unit (100K of ammo too) for an investment, I am not convinced it is a good risk to reward play. But yes, the AR market will survive, and in some segments thrive. All the small companies are scrambling to get AR9 parts in play, and some are junk, but some are pretty good. More and more people are hunting with ARs as well, so those more potent calibers will see some improvement in the next few years. __________________ Good Shooting, MarkCO www.CarbonArms.us

March 16, 2017, 06:53 AM	#43
stagpanther Senior Member Join Date: March 2, 2014 Posts: 11,787	Take it from me DO NOT BUY EXTRA STRIPPED LOWERS--they are ladder drugs for an addiction to building endless AR's and you will soon be forced to buy VERY expensive large safes! BTW, I just found a spare lower in one of my shelves, any suggestions? __________________ "Everyone speaks gun."--Robert O'Neill *I am NOT an expert--I do not have any formal experience or certification in firearms use or testing; use any information I post at your own risk!*

March 16, 2017, 11:00 PM	#47
Ignition Override Senior Member Join Date: February 18, 2008 Location: About 20 nm from the Big Muddy Posts: 2,886	Another website has a comment that three major sporting good chains (Gander, along with two others) now list Pre-Election prices for ARs. With 'ARs', 'M4s' all over Armslist, there's no way that my slightly-used, stock S&W M&P Sport II will receive any offers, even at $100 below last spring's retail prices: about $750 with tax. The only adult responding to my add indicated that people are waiting for deflation to bring most prices down to $550. Ironic that my prefered rifles-the better AKs-have gone up so much. Last edited by Ignition Override; March 16, 2017 at 11:06 PM.

March 14, 2017, 11:17 AM	#28
osbornk Senior Member Join Date: August 11, 2012 Location: Mountains of Appalachia Posts: 1,598	The AR15 is to the rifle what the 1911 is to pistols. I will be around for much the same reasons (good, affordable and universal parts). It will weed out the poor and/or inefficient manufacturers but the AR market will be around for many decades.

March 14, 2017, 11:57 AM	#29
fourbore Senior Member Join Date: August 22, 2015 Location: new england Posts: 1,159	I am looking for the deal of the day for an upper receiver. Not stripped, not a complete upper. Aero or perhaps Anderson. Where are the deals on those today?

March 14, 2017, 12:44 PM	#30
rickyrick Senior Member Join Date: March 15, 2010 Posts: 8,237	Aero has blemished uppers from time to time, I've yet to find any blemishes.

March 14, 2017, 12:44 PM	#31
Nathan Senior Member Join Date: July 1, 2001 Posts: 6,331	The AR market is dying. If you have other products, soon you will drop pr minimize AR products. If you have a solid name and rep, you will continue along with steady sales and decreasing prices. Hopefully your profit margins are set right. If you have big flash today, but were nothing a year ago, you will have too much investment and loss to get right and will die out or change. If you are on the fringes, buckle down, this is gonna be a ride!

March 14, 2017, 12:48 PM	#32
rickyrick Senior Member Join Date: March 15, 2010 Posts: 8,237	I think when free pmags and BCGs are getting bundled into every order, something is up. I bought a scope, and a free $80 mount was thrown in. Seems like they are hurting for sales, when the surplus dries up we will see who's left standing. In 2.5 years we could have another panic. We will have a better idea who the dem candidate might be.

March 14, 2017, 01:34 PM	#33
FTG-05 Senior Member Join Date: March 18, 1999 Location: TN Posts: 301	If the HPA (Hearing Protection Act) passes, I expect to see a lot of AR manufacturers turn to making off the shelf suppressors for every gun know to man. Then the whole gun business will increase to start turning out all kinds of guns that will take suppressors out the door. Ruger has already started doing this. It's a great time to be gun onwer!

March 14, 2017, 01:44 PM	#34
pturner67 Senior Member Join Date: February 26, 2006 Posts: 737	Just wait. If the current leadership underperforms, the next cycle will produce panic buying and prices will go up. Prices are low now. I suggest dollar cost averaging while you can.

March 14, 2017, 09:03 PM	#36
Gunplummer Senior Member Join Date: March 11, 2010 Location: South East Pa. Posts: 3,364	If you watch the internet auctions, you can see the prices of "Black rifles" just keep falling. Some of you are confusing the sale of complete guns with kits. The market is flooded with cheap kits and 80% receivers right now and it is giving the complete rifle sales a beating.

March 15, 2017, 01:44 AM	#37
Ignition Override Senior Member Join Date: February 18, 2008 Location: About 20 nm from the Big Muddy Posts: 2,886	stagpanther: Exactly. People seem to believe that there will be no more panics, connected to an unthinkable tragedy as in the past. Let's pray that such nightmares never again happen. Even if there are no more panics induced by reckless comments from politicians in the majority party of the US House or Senate, watch out for (never-ending) new anti-Second Amendment state legislation in MD, NY, NJ, CT, MA, CA and any other state with anti-gun attitudes in highly-populated urban areas. .

March 15, 2017, 05:02 PM	#40
rickyrick Senior Member Join Date: March 15, 2010 Posts: 8,237	I got a $59 BCG 6.8 PSA Half price keymod AeroPrecision handguard Buy 5 boxes of ammunition get 5 pmags Can find uppers for $35-$40 when I look. I even seen a 50 pack of stripped lowers Bought a vortex scope and got an $87 mount for free Heck, my latest project was put together from my inbox Get on daily deal mailings.

March 15, 2017, 05:25 PM	#41
Gunplummer Senior Member Join Date: March 11, 2010 Location: South East Pa. Posts: 3,364	get on Gunbroker.com and punch up 80% receivers or parts kits.

March 16, 2017, 07:15 AM	#44
rickyrick Senior Member Join Date: March 15, 2010 Posts: 8,237	Fourbore, Go to each manufacturer/supplier's website, most have a sign-up for deals. Some call them "daily deals" "email blast" and so on. Even some of the more expensive places like rainier will have good email deals. Most are doing some sort of combo deals right now. You have to be ready to buy, they don't last long in most cases.

March 16, 2017, 09:50 AM	#45
O4L Senior Member Join Date: September 16, 2015 Posts: 646	I have found slickguns.com very helpful over the years.

March 18, 2017, 10:17 PM	#48
f2shooter Junior member Join Date: December 24, 2016 Posts: 20	I had been looking around for an AR most of last year but nothing caught my eye. Two days after the election a friend called and a neighbor was selling off his unfired AR based on election results. I got an excellent deal and enjoy having it. I may add a couple to my safe this next year not as investments but as a good thing to have around the house or in the car. I wish the price on HK 91's would find some sanity. Rick H.

March 20, 2017, 06:48 PM	#49
katonahjohn Junior Member Join Date: January 1, 2017 Posts: 8	I get email ads from one of the companies that I do business with. Latest offering had three brand new AR's under $500.00, and a supressor for $749.00. Of course they aren't what you would call top of the line AR's, but they are quite a bit more complicated to make than the surpressor..