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Old December 14, 2024, 01:14 PM   #101
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Originally Posted by Pumpkin View Post
If apparent performance gains of one caliber over another are hard to quantify (and I agree mostly) how do we determine which load for a given caliber is the best?

Are the claimed differences between, slow poke wad cutters, standard FMJ/expanding loads or +P loads with controlled expansion bullets definitive enough to claim superiority of one over another?

Or are ammo companies marketing new, improved projectiles for the sake of stimulating sales by showing superior performance on blocks of gel and paper ballistics?
Everything comes down to the terminal performance of the individual bullet. How the bullet performs inside the intended target is all that makes a difference between, each bullet. What do you want the bullet to do, and does it do that.
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Old December 14, 2024, 01:31 PM   #102
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So, aside from the Marshall/Sanow and Ellifritz studies, is anyone aware of any other studies of real world shootings? It seems to me that because Marshall/Sanow have credibility issues, be they real or manufactured, and Ellifritz has the numerous issues I described in my previous post, we really don't have any useful "real world" data aside from the anecdotal.

As such, I have to disagree with statements like this:

Quote:
Originally posted by JohnkSa
These are all good arguments for WHY the difference can’t be detected in the real world. The important thing isn’t why—the fact that it can’t be detected is really all we need to know.
I think the why does matter. Perhaps the difference can't be detected because it's so miniscule or perhaps it can't be detected because we don't have the sufficient quantity or quality of data. I honestly don't see how we can determine if the difference in effectiveness between 9mm and .45 is significant, detectable, or even extant with such paltry data to draw from.
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Old December 14, 2024, 01:57 PM   #103
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Originally Posted by Webleymkv View Post
So, aside from the Marshall/Sanow and Ellifritz studies, is anyone aware of any other studies of real world shootings? It seems to me that because Marshall/Sanow have credibility issues, be they real or manufactured, and Ellifritz has the numerous issues I described in my previous post, we really don't have any useful "real world" data aside from the anecdotal.

As such, I have to disagree with statements like this:



I think the why does matter. Perhaps the difference can't be detected because it's so miniscule or perhaps it can't be detected because we don't have the sufficient quantity or quality of data. I honestly don't see how we can determine if the difference in effectiveness between 9mm and .45 is significant, detectable, or even extant with such paltry data to draw from.
Except we do. We have over 100 years of military, police, and civilian anecdotal data thats never shown any difference in stopping power favoring any caliber. By now if one caliber was superior in common self defense semi auto pistols it would be well known and established... and military and police use favors the 9mm. Ammo and gun sales is another anecdotal data set that show the 9mm is favored over other calibers and most militaries and police forces use 9mm as standard for many years now. Even the US abandoned the 45 after the longest service life among other countries for the 9mm. And its not because 9mm has less stopping power.

We do have extensive gel penetration and mushrooming testing done in all the main calibers and on average all the main self defense semi auto pistol calibers (9, 40 and 45) average penetration is the same and meet the FBI standard.
We have the data. We have real world examples, and everything shows no practical difference. To believe one caliber is superior in the absence of evidence is a faith based opinion and while thats fine its also misleading to new people asking questions looking for their first gun that best suits their needs.
Again, if there was evidence 45acp caliber in this pistol class was superior in stopping power nobody would be buying 9mm.

https://www.luckygunner.com/labs/sel...tic-tests/#9mm
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Old December 14, 2024, 02:32 PM   #104
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Imo, there is a difference between just looking at the cartridge differences, then looking at the firearms that they are chambered in. 9mm can be loaded in smaller, more controllable easily concealed and cheaoer to practice with pistol than the 45 acp.

However, again just imo, a 45 acp bullet has some real advantages.
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Old December 14, 2024, 03:32 PM   #105
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The thing about data (from personal accounts) is if you do not back it up with exactly the same conditions you cannot say it’s accurate or reliable. How can you?

I worked in an engine test lab for almost 40 years and saw many tests, that cost lots of money having to be redone because of a temperature, flow or some other measurement was not within its acceptable range.

So, we go back to gel and other materials other than the actual media needed for real world replication. To my simple brain, the faster, bigger or combination of both SERVICE caliber available would be the one I would choose to protect my back side. As long as it fit in my pocket holster.

Bed stand or open carry is a different animal.
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Old December 14, 2024, 04:34 PM   #106
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The thing about data (from personal accounts) is if you do not back it up with exactly the same conditions you cannot say it’s accurate or reliable. How can you?
Anecdotal data is a very inefficient way to collect usable data but over time it can be useful. We have over 100 years of anecdotal data of 9mm and 45acp and over that time most world military and police forces have adopted the 9mm. Certainly there is a level of discernment everyone must have with personal accounts but we can say that if the 9mm was inferior over the last 100 years there would be a large enough level of mutiny within those professional occupations among those issued those guns who volunteer their lives to go to the threat by now. The US military would not have abandoned the 45 just for more capacity.
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Old December 14, 2024, 05:04 PM   #107
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If apparent performance gains of one caliber over another are hard to quantify (and I agree mostly) how do we determine which load for a given caliber is the best?
Is it reliable in your gun?
Is it accurate in your gun?
Does it reliably expand significantly in reasonable scenarios?
Does it reliably penetrate deeply enough to get to the vitals in reasonable scenarios?

I think of this as roughly similar comparing knife steels in a knife. There are all kinds of theoretical advantages of one kind of knife steel when compared to one that's not as high-end. But in practice, as long as neither steel is cheap, low-quality stuff, as long as the manufacturer does their job, and you make sure the knives are sharp, they're going to cut what you need cut and you probably won't be able to note a difference unless you come up with some sort of tests that aren't really representative of the real world to try to highlight the differences.
Quote:
I think the why does matter. Perhaps the difference can't be detected because it's so miniscule or perhaps it can't be detected because we don't have the sufficient quantity or quality of data. I honestly don't see how we can determine if the difference in effectiveness between 9mm and .45 is significant, detectable, or even extant with such paltry data to draw from.
How much data do we need? If it takes huge numbers of shootings before we can detect the difference, how can it possibly be a significant difference? A significant difference, by definition, would have to be detectable in some reasonably sized data set since your lifetime experience with self-defense shootings is definitely going to be a reasonably sized data set.

Think of it this way. In your lifetime, are you going to get into thousands of shootings, or less than 100? Then if the difference doesn't even show up in 100 shootings, what's it doing for you? Let's accept for the sake of argument that there's a difference. Let's even say it's benefiting you in some undetectable way. What good is a difference you can't detect? Is a benefit you can't detect actually a benefit at all?

And, by the way, it's not reasonable to assume that if there is a difference it must favor the heavier calibers. Until someone can show a detectable difference, we really need to consider that any of the following possibilities could be true. 1) Heavier calibers in the service pistol class create a very small disadvantage to the defender. or 2) Lighter calibers in the service pistol class create a very small disadvantage to the defender. or 3) Choices within the service pistol class do not provide any benefit or disadvantage to the defender.

Obviously any benefit/disadvantage has to be 'very small' or we would be able to see it when looking at large numbers of shootings. But since we can't detect it at all, we need to consider that any of the options could be true.
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Old December 14, 2024, 06:29 PM   #108
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Quote:
Originally posted by JohnKSa
How much data do we need? If it takes huge numbers of shootings before we can detect the difference, how can it possibly be a significant difference? A significant difference, by definition, would have to be detectable in some reasonably sized data set since your lifetime experience with self-defense shootings is definitely going to be a reasonably sized data set.
The problem is we have basically no useable data from real-world shootings. Marshall and Sanow have too many credibility issues and Ellifritz's methodology renders his data incapable of providing any meaningful conclusion one way or the other. All that we have from real-world shootings is the anecdotal, which has problems of its own unless, of course, there is another study or studies that I'm unaware of.

We know that there are certainly measurable differences between calibers and loadings, but we have no reliable data from the real world to tell us how significant those differences are. You may be right that there is no discernable difference between service calibers, but without reliable real world data we have no way of determining that.
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Old December 14, 2024, 06:39 PM   #109
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...and were going full circle here. I will still contend we have over 100 years of anecdotal data that shows major military and police agencies abandoning the 45 for the 9mm.

But the claim in this thread is the 45 is better. The burden of proof is on the claim. Thats the evidence were looking for.
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Old December 14, 2024, 07:12 PM   #110
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Originally Posted by Koda94 View Post
...and were going full circle here. I will still contend we have over 100 years of anecdotal data that shows major military and police agencies abandoning the 45 for the 9mm.

But the claim in this thread is the 45 is better. The burden of proof is on the claim. Thats the evidence were looking for.
But why have they gone to the 9mm, was it performance or another reason?
And, is what’s best for one group the best for everyone else?
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Old December 14, 2024, 07:21 PM   #111
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But why have they gone to the 9mm, was it performance or another reason?
And, is what’s best for one group the best for everyone else?
Its not because it has less stopping power. Nobodys going to go backwards on that.
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Old December 14, 2024, 07:38 PM   #112
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Its not because it has less stopping power. Nobodys going to go backwards on that.
Then possibly some other measurable reason’s

capacity, commonality, recoil

While being considered, adequate.
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Old December 14, 2024, 07:57 PM   #113
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Then possibly some other measurable reason’s

capacity, commonality, recoil

While being considered, adequate.
capacity alone makes the 9mm better than the 45acp, and thats not anecdotal...
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Old December 14, 2024, 08:13 PM   #114
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But why have they gone to the 9mm, was it performance or another reason?
What do you mean by "performance"? What do you want out of a self-defense handgun--do you want it to give you the capability to defend yourself effectively assuming you have the skill and tactics to do so? Isn't that what we all really mean by "performance"?

Or, are you measuring performance by energy, or momentum, or bullet mass, or diameter? What do those things buy you (within the narrow range of the service pistol class) on the street?

I mentioned a number of possible considerations one should take into account when selecting a self-defense pistol/pistol caliber/loading. All of them relate to "performance" in one way or another.
Quote:
You may be right that there is no discernable difference between service calibers, but without reliable real world data we have no way of determining that.
Listen to what you're saying. If it's that hard to even prove there is a difference, how could the difference be significant?

Whatever the reasons that it is hard to prove the difference, the fact remains that it IS hard. Nobody is arguing that point. Nobody has brought evidence to the contrary. There's agreement that it's so hard that no one has been able to do it. If no one can prove it exists, why does it make sense to even assume it exists? Let alone assume that it's a meaningful/practical difference and that it favors particular calibers.

Look, there's a practical aspect to this. It's actually important to understand what's going on here. Once people realize that their choice of the numbers stamped on their gun and on the ammo they buy isn't going to save them in the real world, they can start focusing on what's really important. On the things that everyone agrees really can make a big difference in the outcome of gunfights.
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Old December 14, 2024, 08:23 PM   #115
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There has been some reliable real world data posted in this thread. Actual police shootings, ballistic dummy tests.
Its been mentioned more than once and keeps getting ignored, so Im not going to requote it. What has been shared has not shown the 45 having more stopping power.
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Old December 14, 2024, 10:48 PM   #116
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John, it seems people are hearing you (reading the text) but some are not listening to what you are saying.

Quote:
You may be right that there is no discernable difference between service calibers, but without reliable real world data we have no way of determining that.
So, you can't figure out something without a study?? Isn't that like walking into the middle of a forest, and choosing one, saying "how do I know this is a tree???"

Quote:
But why have they gone to the 9mm, was it performance or another reason?
And, is what’s best for one group the best for everyone else?
It was for other reasons, and what is best for one group is not automatically best for everyone else.

Quote:
I will still contend we have over 100 years of anecdotal data that shows major military and police agencies abandoning the 45 for the 9mm.
No, we don't have over 100 years of data showing major military and police agencies abandoning the 45 for the 9mm.

What we do have is data from 1902 on, for the 9mm Luger and data from 1911 on for the.45acp in military service. The first US police force I know of to adopt the 9mm Luger was the Illinois State Police, about 1970. Very few (if any) other major police groups adopted the 9mm until AFTER the US military adopted the 9mm in 1984.

The US military did not "abandon" the ,45 for the 9mm due to any performance issues, Remember, the military is restricted to FMJ ammo. The .45 was retired and replaced with the 9mm because the 1911A1 pistols were being retired, as the newest ones were bought in 1945, and we had an agreement with NATO that when we replaced the 1911 pistols its replacement would be in the NATO standard pistol caliber, which was 9mm.

Keep in mind that military standards and the standards you or I might choose for personal defense are NOT the same. Military and even police choices involve not just the effectiveness of the round, but also budget and sometimes even political considerations.

The Military's primary concern is the mission, not the individual, Remember that.

We do not have a 100+year history of the US "abandoning" the .45. The police never used the .45 in significant numbers, they primarily used .38Special and later .357 revolvers so one cannot say they abandoned the .45, and we have the US military using the .45 as their primary service pistol round until the 1980s and then adopting the 9mm primarily due to political considerations.
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Old December 14, 2024, 10:58 PM   #117
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^^Well said^^
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Old December 14, 2024, 11:01 PM   #118
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Originally Posted by 44 AMP View Post

No, we don't have over 100 years of data showing major military and police agencies abandoning the 45 for the 9mm.

What we do have is data from 1902 on, for the 9mm Luger and data from 1911 on for the.45acp in military service. The first US police force I know of to adopt the 9mm Luger was the Illinois State Police, about 1970. Very few (if any) other major police groups adopted the 9mm until AFTER the US military adopted the 9mm in 1984.

The US military did not "abandon" the ,45 for the 9mm due to any performance issues, Remember, the military is restricted to FMJ ammo. The .45 was retired and replaced with the 9mm because the 1911A1 pistols were being retired, as the newest ones were bought in 1945, and we had an agreement with NATO that when we replaced the 1911 pistols its replacement would be in the NATO standard pistol caliber, which was 9mm.

Keep in mind that military standards and the standards you or I might choose for personal defense are NOT the same. Military and even police choices involve not just the effectiveness of the round, but also budget and sometimes even political considerations.

The Military's primary concern is the mission, not the individual, Remember that.

We do not have a 100+year history of the US "abandoning" the .45. The police never used the .45 in significant numbers, they primarily used .38Special and later .357 revolvers so one cannot say they abandoned the .45, and we have the US military using the .45 as their primary service pistol round until the 1980s and then adopting the 9mm primarily due to political considerations.
ok, all good points and appreciate the clarity.
So my point is just that after 100 years of these two calibers being in use most major military and police are using the 9mm today. That is anecdotal data that does not support the claim that the 45 has more stopping power than the 9mm.
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Old December 14, 2024, 11:25 PM   #119
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That is anecdotal data that does not support the claim that the 45 has more stopping power than the 9mm.
As far as I know, I have made no such claim. I have admitted that I have a preference for the .45 over the 9mm, but that's a personal thing, primarily because I've been shooting since the early 70s, when unless you handloaded the only ammo for either round was FMJ. Also, I prefer the guns the .45 is found in, over most of those in 9mm. Again, a personal matter, and not intended as advice or an example for others.

I agree with what JohnKSa has said here several times, if you cannot show a clear superiority of one round over another, then a significant advantage does not exist, so its a matter of personal preference as much as anything.
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Old December 14, 2024, 11:32 PM   #120
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As far as I know, I have made no such claim. I have admitted that I have a preference for the .45 over the 9mm, but that's a personal thing, primarily because I've been shooting since the early 70s, when unless you handloaded the only ammo for either round was FMJ. Also, I prefer the guns the .45 is found in, over most of those in 9mm. Again, a personal matter, and not intended as advice or an example for others.

I agree with what JohnKSa has said here several times, if you cannot show a clear superiority of one round over another, then a significant advantage does not exist, so its a matter of personal preference as much as anything.
To clarify I wasnt suggesting you claimed that I was just clarifying my point to the discussion in general. My apologies for any confusion.

FWIW I really love my 1911s in 45acp and do rely on them for SD roles but its not because I think they have more stopping power I just like 1911s in the good ol 45acp "they way it was meant to be" some may say. A personal preference. I have other guns in 9mm too, and do not feel under gunned at all with 9mm stopping power. If it came down to to the old question "you can only have one gun" Id rather have the 9mm for its capacity advantage.
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Old December 15, 2024, 12:16 AM   #121
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...and were going full circle here. I will still contend we have over 100 years of anecdotal data that shows major military and police agencies abandoning the 45 for the 9mm
There are a few problems with this statement. First of all, the United States is in the minority of countries to use a .45 or similar cartridge as its primary military handgun in the last 100 years or so in the first place. Most of Europe was either already using 9mm to begin with or abandoned smaller cartridges like .32 Auto or .380 Auto to go to it. Likewise, few police agencies used .45's to begin with. In the early 20th Century .32 Caliber revolvers were popular for police use and then .38 Special. By the time 9mm became popular in the 1980's, it was replacing primarily .38 Special and .357 Magnum revolvers and the change in caliber had as much to do with the change in platform from revolver to semi-auto as anything. Also, you're ignoring that throughout the 90's many, many police agencies abandoned the 9mm in favor of the .40 S&W and have only recently started transitioning back to 9mm.

Quote:
Originally posted by JohnKSa
Listen to what you're saying. If it's that hard to even prove there is a difference, how could the difference be significant?

Whatever the reasons that it is hard to prove the difference, the fact remains that it IS hard. Nobody is arguing that point. Nobody has brought evidence to the contrary. There's agreement that it's so hard that no one has been able to do it. If no one can prove it exists, why does it make sense to even assume it exists? Let alone assume that it's a meaningful/practical difference and that it favors particular calibers.
It's pretty hard to prove or disprove anything if you have no data to go on and, as far as real-world shootings that's pretty much what we seem to have. The Marshall/Sanow data isn't really useable because, for lack of a better description, it's "corrupted" by mathematical errors. Conversely, the Ellifritz data isn't really useful in my estimation because he didn't sufficiently pare his data down to that which is useful. We know through laboratory tests that a JHP bullet in a "service" type caliber like 9mm or .45 Auto can be expected to perform quite differently than a FMJ bullet. This is so well known, in fact, that pretty much every major U.S. police agency issues or authorizes JHP ammunition of one sort or another. Ellifritz, however, chose to lump all shootings of the same caliber together regardless of bullet type.

Again, I think it is the "why" that is truly important here. I don't think that the difficulty in proving or disproving a significant difference in real-world performance between 9mm and .45 is proof in and of itself that there isn't a significant difference but rather proof that good reliable data is exceedingly difficult to get. The vast majority of real-world data that we have come from police reports and those, unfortunately, often omit or incorrectly report much of the data we're looking for. This is why, though I don't find much value in the Ellifritz study, I'm not particularly critical of Ellifritz himself. Ellifritz did the best he could with the data he had to work with which, unfortunately, wasn't as much as the numbers might suggest.

Quote:
Originally posted by JohnKSa
Look, there's a practical aspect to this. It's actually important to understand what's going on here. Once people realize that their choice of the numbers stamped on their gun and on the ammo they buy isn't going to save them in the real world, they can start focusing on what's really important. On the things that everyone agrees really can make a big difference in the outcome of gunfights.
While I would agree that I think too much focus is put on caliber, I would also caution that the whole "caliber doesn't matter" argument can be taken to extremes that are also detrimental. I have actually seen arguments advocating .22 Long Rifle as a "better" self-defense caliber because it's easier to shoot than 9mm. While it's certainly true that .22 LR is easier for most people to shoot and that speed and accuracy are more important than caliber, it seems fairly obvious to me that most people can shoot a 9mm well enough that its ballistic advantages outweigh the fact that its slightly more difficult to shoot than a .22.

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Originally posted by .44 AMP
So, you can't figure out something without a study?? Isn't that like walking into the middle of a forest, and choosing one, saying "how do I know this is a tree???"
I don't need a study to figure out that a .45 loaded with 230 gr Federal HST which has 404 ft. lbs. energy and, in bare gelatin, penetrates to 12" and expands to .980" is going to, all else held equal, do more damage to a living organism that a 9mm loaded with 124 gr Federal HST which has 364 ft. lbs. energy and, in bare gelatin, penetrates to 11" and expands to .880". It seems fairly obvious to me that a bigger bullet with more energy and deeper penetration should be more effective than a smaller one with less energy and less penetration. What I don't know without some sort of a study is how much more effective the bigger, more powerful, deeper penetrating bullet is.

I don't want to rely solely on anecdotal data because it's just that: anecdotal. We have anecdotal data from the Philippine Insurrection telling us that .38 Long Colt LRN ammunition was completely ineffective against Moro warriors, yet we also have an anecdote from Theodore Roosevelt and his experience in the Spanish-American war stating that he shot a man with the very same type of ammunition and the man he shot "crumpled like a jackrabbit," so which anecdote are we to base our opinions on? I'd very much like to see a reliable case study done on the real-world effects of various handgun calibers and loadings, but unless there is such a study I'm unaware of, it appears not to exist.

The conundrum I find myself in is that we have a group of "experts" telling us that we want a handgun bullet to behave a very particular way, but there's a lot of anecdotal evidence telling us that some of the most effective handgun bullets don't necessarily perform the way the "experts" say they should. I've noticed, over the years, that many of the bullets which perform exceptionally well anecdotally do have a lot of common traits, but they still don't perform the way the "experts" say an ideal bullet should. So, the question I come back to is are the "experts" simply wrong about what a bullet should do or are the anecdotes exaggerated and these particular loadings, some of which have achieved near-legendary status, simply not as good as we were led to believe. While I certainly have my own theories, some reliable real-world data would be most helpful in clearing up this conundrum but, unfortunately, that doesn't seem to exist.
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Old December 15, 2024, 12:31 AM   #122
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There are a few problems with this statement. First of all, the United States is in the minority of countries to use a .45 or similar cartridge as its primary military handgun in the last 100 years or so in the first place. Most of Europe was either already using 9mm to begin with or abandoned smaller cartridges like .32 Auto or .380 Auto to go to it. Likewise, few police agencies used .45's to begin with. In the early 20th Century .32 Caliber revolvers were popular for police use and then .38 Special. By the time 9mm became popular in the 1980's, it was replacing primarily .38 Special and .357 Magnum revolvers and the change in caliber had as much to do with the change in platform from revolver to semi-auto as anything. Also, you're ignoring that throughout the 90's many, many police agencies abandoned the 9mm in favor of the .40 S&W and have only recently started transitioning back to 9mm.
The way I read that actually supports my position that most military and police agencies are using the 9mm today, as anecdotal evidence the 45 does not have more stopping power.
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Old December 15, 2024, 12:34 AM   #123
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The moment I read the original post and watched the video; I decided "nope, this is ridiculous, I'm staying out of this discussion."
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Old December 15, 2024, 12:57 AM   #124
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My head is spinning.
I'm seventy years old and for at least 50 years of that I have been going back-and-forth between the 1911 and the high power.
For some inexplicable reason in the end, I have gone to 1911 .45.
Most of that is because I have had a 1911 in my hands continuously since I've been 19 years old.
I truly like the browning high power and 9 mm.
I have owned at least 15 1911 .45s and probably 6 9mm browning high powers
But -
This is probablyconvoluted thinking on my part, but I don't apologize for it -
I feel very comfortable with full metal jacket bullets.
So 45 is my choice.
It's as simple as that.
As an aside, that means nothing -except probably to me-any animal I shot with 45 hardball needed just one shot. No bears were ever harmed.

Last edited by Jim567; December 15, 2024 at 01:07 AM.
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Old December 15, 2024, 01:53 AM   #125
JohnKSa
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Quote:
I feel very comfortable with full metal jacket bullets.
So 45 is my choice.
It seems that no one can prove that your choice will handicap you, so if that is what gives you confidence, you can feel good about it. Of course it seems that no one can prove it gives you an advantage either.

For whatever it's worth, going to FMJ is the best way to minimize the measurable difference in terminal performance (as measured in gel testing) in the service pistol class.
Quote:
So, you can't figure out something without a study?? Isn't that like walking into the middle of a forest, and choosing one, saying "how do I know this is a tree???"
It would be if there were no consensus about what a tree was and significant conflicting information on the topic.
Quote:
I would also caution that the whole "caliber doesn't matter" argument can be taken to extremes that are also detrimental. I have actually seen arguments advocating .22 Long Rifle as a "better" self-defense caliber because it's easier to shoot than 9mm.
Anything can be taken to an extreme, and that fact doesn't remotely imply that there's a problem with the validity of the original premise that is exaggerated in the process.

It probably hasn't escaped your notice that I've repeatedly stated that I'm talking about differences in the service pistol performance class, that I've refuted the idea that trying to compare performance to a caliber outside that performance class (i.e. .454 Casull) was going to provide useful information, and that the thread is about .45 vs 9mm, and not service pistol calibers vs. .22LR.
Quote:
What I don't know without some sort of a study is how much more effective the bigger, more powerful, deeper penetrating bullet is.
That overstates the case. Without a study we don't even know if the difference is significant. And, in fact, the data we do have suggests very strongly that it is not--as does the fact that there is no general consensus on the topic in spite of years of trying to find one.
Quote:
I don't think that the difficulty in proving or disproving a significant difference in real-world performance between 9mm and .45 is proof in and of itself that there isn't a significant difference but rather proof that good reliable data is exceedingly difficult to get.
Ok, then, let's look at the why. WHY is reliable data exceedingly difficult to get? WHY is it so critical to have pristine data to find a difference in outcome of that difference in outcome is significant?

We only need large number of data points when we're looking for very small differences. We only need pristine data when we're looking for very small differences. If the difference we're looking for is having a significant effect on outcomes, it's easy to find, it doesn't take a lot of data points and the data can be pretty noisy.

The FBI's expert, back in the late '80s admitted that trying to find effects due to caliber differences in shooting data was a fools errand. There's simply no way around the fact that the only way that can be true is if the effects are not significant.

It's essentially a tautology--the simplest kind of reasoning. If you can't find significant effects due to caliber differences in real-world shootings then the effect due to caliber differences in real-world shootings is not significant.
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