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#76 |
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Join Date: January 6, 2011
Location: Thornton, Texas
Posts: 4,030
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So, there you have it. The 380 is just as effective as the 45ACP. Who really believes that? Nobody believes that. We’ll be back to recommending the 38 Long Colt again. Meth head is coming at you with a machete. One round in each pistol - 380, 9mm, 45 ACP. I’m picking up the 45.
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#77 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: May 22, 2011
Posts: 12,382
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45 vs 9mm interesting test
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As for picking the 45, no is saying you can’t or shouldn’t. Some people have come to different conclusions than yourself. It happens. You mentioned above people could keep going at this forever. You seem to be one of those people. |
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#78 | |||
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Join Date: February 12, 2001
Location: DFW Area
Posts: 25,407
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Don't put your faith in numbers stamped on a gun or on a cartridge box. If you have to pull your gun to save your life, those numbers won't help you one little bit. People want to focus on the numbers because it helps them avoid them being forced to deal with the unpleasant reality that what saves them in the real world is going to be time at the range, skill, situational awareness, maybe their tactics, and probably their ability to perform under stress. I'm not asking you to believe me. You have the internet at your disposal and this is a common topic--one that is of interest to thousands of people and many large organizations. Go find the evidence to show that there's a practical difference in the outcomes of real-world shootings due to caliber difference--that defenders are stopping attackers faster or surviving more often based on which one of the service pistol calibers they choose. If there is a practical difference, if caliber terminal performance differences are actually having a detectable effect on the outcome of gunfights, then, well, the effect will be detectable. People talk about how there are too many other variables that affect shootings and those make it impossible to detect the differences due to caliber. They are exactly right--but the fact is, it doesn't matter WHY it can't be detected. If it can't be detected, then how could it possibly be helping? If it could be shown to be helping, then, by definition, it would be detectable.
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#79 |
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Join Date: November 22, 2024
Location: Southeast Texas
Posts: 42
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#80 | |
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Join Date: March 11, 2006
Location: Upper US
Posts: 30,067
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All else being equal (and it almost never is) bigger bullets tend to work better. |
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#81 |
Senior Member
Join Date: November 25, 2012
Location: Cascadia
Posts: 1,356
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The only reason people believe the 45 has more stopping power is because they want to justify their choice over other choices. If it were really true nobody would buy a 9mm. The vast majority would be using 45acp and that is not the case, in fact if I recall the 9mm is the most popular self defense round sold in the US, probably the world. There's a reason for that....
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#82 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: November 20, 2008
Posts: 11,296
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Then, there are millions of tests showing wound channels of 45acp compared to 9mm. While the testing is valid, it only serves to show what each round does to ballistic gelatin - not on a living human body. So, we have to "guess" at which round is more effective, and more effective in varying circumstances. This is the reason caliber wars never cease. Even if a particular round (say 10mm) has good penetration, good wound channel and higher capacity - there are going to be people who simply don't shoot it as well as 380 or 9mm. The bottom line is there are too many variables to say that one cartridge is better than all others. Now, lets talk ballistic lasers - big hole, no recoil, infinite number of "shots"...... |
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#83 | ||||
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Join Date: February 12, 2001
Location: DFW Area
Posts: 25,407
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But, ok. let's say those numbers are manipulated so that the statistics work out a certain way. Where are the data sets where the numbers are manipulated so the statistics work out so that the .45ACP is the clear winner? Where are the data sets where the numbers are manipulated so that there's an obvious difference in shooting outcomes based on differences in terminal performance differences due to caliber? Let's see some of that data and then we can argue about which data set is valid and/or which one has the statistics manipulated and in what ways. I can't find it. Neither can you or you wouldn't be reduced to "hand-waving" type proofs. Neither can anyone else or they would have answered my question and proved I was wrong. I've been looking for the data for decades, and it's not out there as far as I can tell. I've been challenging others to find it for years and no one can. Quote:
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It's nonsense to say that: "It's helping the defender in real world shootings, but when you look at the outcome of real world shootings the effect is not apparent." If it is helping, by definition, the effect MUST be apparent. If the effect is not apparent in real world shootings, then, by any reasonable definition of "apparent effect" and "helping" it CAN'T be helping in the real world. If it's not incapacitating people faster in real world shootings, what's the advantage? If it is, where's the evidence? If it's not improving the survival rate of defenders in real world shootings, what's the advantage? If it is, where's the evidence? I wanted an answer to this just as badly as everyone else does. But I wasn't willing to speculate to come up with an answer. I wasn't willing to just arbitrarily decide, based on my personal opinion--I wanted to make my decision based on evidence. I didn't start this out to prove that they were all providing the same basic real-world outcomes, I started out to prove my favorite was better than the others. But I couldn't because I couldn't find any evidence and no one could provide any. I finally realized that I had the answer I was looking for--it just wasn't the one I thought I would find. If there wasn't any real world evidence, any real world differences couldn't be significant. If the real world differences were significant, there would, by definition, HAVE to be real world evidence.
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#84 |
Senior Member
Join Date: October 18, 2020
Location: Seguin Texas
Posts: 766
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What caused Evan Marshall and Ed Sano’s statistics in “STOPPING POWER” to loose credibility.
Obviously people have found enough assumptions, errors, etc. to the data that it can’t or isn’t trusted by so many. |
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#85 |
Staff
Join Date: March 11, 2006
Location: Upper US
Posts: 30,067
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These kinds of arguments remind me of the story about the engineers and the bumblebee. The engineers studied everything they could, body mass, wing area muscle contraction rate, number of wingbeats per second, every statistic they could find, calculated things out, and pronounced that, mathematically, the bumblebee could not fly.
The bee, not having read the study, flew away.... ![]() ![]() ALL the studies I've seen, or heard about have some of the same things in common, one of them being the focus on some (or only one) factor, ignoring a host of others, and presenting conclusions as if the chosen factor was the only responsible thing giving the observed result. When we look at stopping people, things frequently get "blended" into general groups, in order to provide manageable numbers to work with. One of the things that often gets reduced to essentially one uniform data point is people. People are NOT a uniform, homogenous target medium. Every hit is different. Every PERSON is different. The differences may be small and insignificant, or they may be large and clearly and important. The attacker can be any where from the extreme of a "terminator" who will not stop until physical damage stops them, to the other end where the attacker stops because they got shot somewhere.... The attacker can be anything from a small person to a huge one, yet in the studies all are the same, either "stopped" or "not stopped"....and the chosen factor of focus is usually the given reason why. Studies can show general trends, and that can be useful information, but none of them should be considered holy writ, or an immutable law of physics. Flip a coin. Odds are the same which side will land up. SO, by the math you have a 50/50 chance every time. Now suppose you flip 10 times and get 7 tails. Did you beat the odds?? Is it an anomaly?? Or, is it what a statistician will tell you, "your sample size isn't big enough". ?? I do agree with the idea that if there was a significant difference you should be able to show it, and if you can't, then there probably isn't one.
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#86 | |
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Join Date: November 9, 2006
Posts: 28
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#87 | |
Staff
Join Date: March 11, 2006
Location: Upper US
Posts: 30,067
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All else being equal (and it almost never is) bigger bullets tend to work better. |
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#88 | ||||
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Join Date: February 12, 2001
Location: DFW Area
Posts: 25,407
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According to the original story (which may or may not be based on an actual occurrence) the result was not a careful mathematical modeling, it was literally, a slapdash calculation done on a napkin, with the implication that the engineer in question may have had a few before attempting the feat. Not surprisingly, given the circumstances, the calculation turned out to be wrong. The story has (in modified form—changed to make it seem like the quick and dirty estimate was actually the result of a properly verified scientific study) become the darling of people who want to dismiss scientific results for one reason or another. Quote:
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#89 |
Senior Member
Join Date: October 18, 2020
Location: Seguin Texas
Posts: 766
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I remember reading a write up in a handgun mag back in the day (I think I still have it somewhere) about their work. Honestly, it seemed believable especially when considering paper ballistics of the rounds in question.
Of course, you also had the opinion of the author of the article to weigh in, good, bad or indifferent. As I remember, this was all at the time the 40 was talking hold and it produced some of the better numbers. I do seem to remember the 357/125 being rated as one of the most effective at producing, one shot stops. Amazon still has ONE copy of Stopping Power for…… $50.00 ![]() |
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#90 |
Staff
Join Date: February 12, 2001
Location: DFW Area
Posts: 25,407
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It was very attractive because the M&S results correlated well with kinetic energy and it was very comforting for people to believe that they could get a useful assessment of a round's street performance with just a simple calculation based on easily measured parameters (mass and velocity). Indeed, many ammo manufacturers supply the kinetic energy numbers so the user doesn't even have to do the measurements or calculation. People love simple answers.
In retrospect, it was too good to be true. As everyone keeps saying, there are just too many variables that heavily affect the outcome of shootings in the real world for there to be a simple way to determine which service pistol caliber is best. In fact, those variables affect the outcome so heavily that effect from caliber terminal performance differences are swamped by the other factors and it doesn't even show when people are trying hard to find it.
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#91 |
Senior Member
Join Date: January 6, 2011
Location: Thornton, Texas
Posts: 4,030
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I do apologize for being difficult on this. We, most of us, just disagree. But, in the interest of dragging this out a bit further, let’s bring the 44 Mag and the 454 Casull into this. Do they have more stopping power than a 9mm? To bring the bear back into this, would you rather have a 9mm on your hip or a 454 Casull if the bear showed interest in you as a food group? Admittedly, the 454 wasn’t part of the original conversation, but it is a 45 caliber cartridge, which to some of you isn’t any more effective than a 9mm.
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#92 |
Senior Member
Join Date: November 25, 2012
Location: Cascadia
Posts: 1,356
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IMO when it comes to bear, or any dangerous game, you need something that penetrates more. Its a way different "target medium" than a human torso to be considered part of the discussion.
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#93 |
Senior Member
Join Date: May 22, 2011
Posts: 3,775
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Federal/Gold Dot public information and Lucky Gunner with standardized media disagree. Youtubers are nothing in the world of standardized testing.
https://le.vistaoutdoor.com/ammuniti...n/default.aspx You've got almost equal expansion and penetration in the HST 9mm as the 45 +P HST 45...That "almost" qualifier stands against HUGE costs for carrying a 45.
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#94 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: November 4, 2013
Location: Western slope of Colorado
Posts: 3,787
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Those all have by any standard of measurement more “power” then either 9mm or 45acp. The reasons are some of the same that weigh against 45acp over 9mm. More recoil making follow up shots slower Less capacity on tap in the gun Bigger guns More weight Higher ammo cost = less training = less competency I’ll say it again…this is not a debate about 1shot effectiveness. Thats silly. The difference is so SMALL it cant be defined. Even though people have been trying for 100+ years to do so. When looking at the whole picture there IS a clear winner. 9mm checks more defensive use needs then 45acp. Or you can chose to carry a single shot Contender in 45-70…enjoy. |
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#95 | |
Staff
Join Date: March 11, 2006
Location: Upper US
Posts: 30,067
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All else being equal (and it almost never is) bigger bullets tend to work better. |
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#96 | ||
Staff
Join Date: February 12, 2001
Location: DFW Area
Posts: 25,407
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The result is you have a handful of calibers that are all fall into a pretty narrow performance range. As far as what to carry for a bear attack, the answer is:
Don't you think it's telling that you keep having to create unusual or extreme situations and comparisons in order to try to support your point? (What if there was a bear and you had only one shot?, What if you were charged by a drugged up fanatic who was covered in tight wrappings and carrying a sword <Moro> to control blood loss and had only one shot?, What if you were attacked by a Meth head with a machete and had only one shot?, What about comparing one of the most powerful handgun hunting calibers available against a service pistol caliber for bear attack effectiveness?) I think it's interesting that when pressed to support the assertion that all the service pistol calibers perform the same on the street, people immediately begin trying to come up with examples that go outside of the caliber range under discussion, or creating scenarios that are unlikely and/or extreme. Then again, I guess what else can they do given that there's no real-world evidence for their position? Quote:
In this case, here are some things (not a complete list) that should be considered when deciding what to carry and what to load it with. Provided in no particular order.
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#97 |
Senior Member
Join Date: January 6, 2011
Location: Thornton, Texas
Posts: 4,030
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All I ever meant to say was that I thought the 45 ACP had more stopping power than a 9mm, and that if I only had one shot to disable an attacker, I’d go for the larger bullet. I don’t have a 45 caliber handgun, but have a couple of 9mm. Where I live, there are no bears, no Moro’s, and I don’t know about meth heads. I said what I believe. Most of you seem to disagree, and that’s fine. Neither of us can prove their respective cases. We are all left with personal opinions.
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#98 | |
Staff
Join Date: March 11, 2006
Location: Upper US
Posts: 30,067
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What I consider to be slightly off topic is that while the OP asked about the performance of certain 9mm and .45ACP AMMO, we are getting all wrapped up in the physical pros and cons of the GUNS, and what is and isn't best in features for carry.
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#99 | ||
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Join Date: February 12, 2001
Location: DFW Area
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#100 |
Senior Member
Join Date: October 18, 2020
Location: Seguin Texas
Posts: 766
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If apparent performance gains of one caliber over another are hard to quantify (and I agree mostly) how do we determine which load for a given caliber is the best?
Are the claimed differences between, slow poke wad cutters, standard FMJ/expanding loads or +P loads with controlled expansion bullets definitive enough to claim superiority of one over another? Or are ammo companies marketing new, improved projectiles for the sake of stimulating sales by showing superior performance on blocks of gel and paper ballistics? |
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