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Old December 25, 2024, 04:11 PM   #251
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I'll make this very simple. How do you reconcile your claim that accuracy has a detectable and significant effect on the outcome of real world shootings when no such correlation appears in the Ellifritz study?
Here's how I would make things very simple,

First, understand what is meant, in context when one says detectable and significant.

detectable means that one can determine if something is present, or not. That's it. Without additional qualifiers (which may or may not be found in the context) detectable does not, and cannot provide any quantifiable value beyond enough exists to be detected.

Detectable is a yes/no thing. Either something exists in at least enough quantity to be detected, or it does not.

Significant is a value judgement, can vary with different parameters, but does have one constant, it has to exist in a detectable quantity, or it cannot be significant, other than by its absence.

And both of these exist in the real world, independent of any and all studies, they just are, or are not, and are valid whether a study takes them into account, (and does so correctly), or not.

IF you want to talk accuracy, in the framework of real world defensive shootings, the minimum detectable level is simple, and easy to see. The target was hit, or it wasn't. IF you miss, NONE of the other factors are relevant.
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Old December 25, 2024, 04:56 PM   #252
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What about a list of possible items/things that could contribute to shifting the data?

I think it could be pretty large and able to clog up the works.
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Old December 25, 2024, 06:27 PM   #253
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How do you reconcile your claim that accuracy has a detectable and significant effect on the outcome of real world shootings when no such correlation appears in the Ellifritz study?
To be perfectly honest, I answered the question based on the standard definition of "accuracy" rather than on "accuracy as defined by Ellifritz".

I'm assuming that in this question you still mean "accuracy as defined by Ellifritz", not just "accuracy". Right?

As far as simple questions go, I thought this was a pretty simple question, based on the standard meanings of common words and with the definitions even provided.

"How could the effect of one of the criteria you list, be obscured (kept from being seen, concealed) and still be significant (sufficiently great or important to be worthy of attention; noteworthy.)?"
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Old December 25, 2024, 09:43 PM   #254
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I bet Bryan Litz could do a meaningful (detectable, significant, statistically correlated) comparison--but I doubt he'd want to waste his time doing it.
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Old December 25, 2024, 11:39 PM   #255
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Originally posted by JohnKSa
To be perfectly honest, I answered the question based on the standard definition of "accuracy" rather than on "accuracy as defined by Ellifritz".

I'm assuming that in this question you still mean "accuracy as defined by Ellifritz", not just "accuracy". Right?
Yes, I already specified "accuracy as defined by Ellifritz" in post #224 and again in post #230. As Ellifritz's data is the only data we have that does not suffer from credibility issues, it makes the most sense to use his definitions since that's how he compiled the data. Also, I think Ellifritz's definition is a reasonable one as he defines "accuracy" as "What percentage of hits was in the head or torso." Given that the majority of vital organs in the human body are in the head and torso, defining accuracy this way seems reasonable as you exclude shots to the extremities, which are less likely to incapacitate and skew the results unfairly while still allowing for the variability in precise shot placement endemic to real-world events.

You've spent a lot of time talking circles around this, but not answering it directly. So I ask again, how do you reconcile your claim that accuracy has both detectable and significant effect on the outcome of real world shootings when in Ellifritz's study increased accuracy, as defined by percentage of shots that hit the head or torso, did not correlate with increased stopping power as defined by percentage of hits that were fatal, average number of rounds until incapacitation, percentage of people who were not incapacitated, one-shot-stop percentage (again the Ellifritz definition), and/or percentage of people actually incapacitated by one head or torso hit? I don't think I can make my question any more specific than that.

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Old December 26, 2024, 01:56 AM   #256
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So I ask again, how do you reconcile your claim that accuracy has both detectable and significant effect on the outcome of real world shootings when in Ellifritz's study increased accuracy, as defined by percentage of shots that hit the head or torso, did not correlate with increased stopping power as defined by percentage of hits that were fatal, average number of rounds until incapacitation, percentage of people who were not incapacitated, one-shot-stop percentage (again the Ellifritz definition), and/or percentage of people actually incapacitated by one head or torso hit? I don't think I can make my question any more specific than that.
I'm sorry, I guess my last response wasn't clear.

I believe that "accuracy" (standard definition) does have a detectable and significant effect on real world outcomes. That's why I initially answered the way I did because I was answering based on the standard definition of accuracy. On the other hand, "accuracy as defined by Ellifritz" is something very different. Different enough that I'm not sure how to assess it. I'm willing to accept your assessment of "accuracy as defined by Ellifritz".

Ok, there's your answer. How about one from you now.

How could the effect of caliber choice on one of the criteria you listed in post 230, be obscured (kept from being seen, concealed) and still be significant (sufficiently great or important to be worthy of attention; noteworthy)?
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Old December 26, 2024, 10:03 AM   #257
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Originally posted by JohnKSa
How could the effect of caliber choice on one of the criteria you listed in post 230, be obscured (kept from being seen, concealed) and still be significant (sufficiently great or important to be worthy of attention; noteworthy)?
Simple, the effect of caliber or any of the factors I mentioned can be obscured quite easily by the opposing effect of another factor of equal or greater significance. For example, the increased effectiveness of a more powerful caliber might be obscured by better accuracy of a weaker one. Better accuracy of one caliber might be obscured by superior bullet design in another. Because the degree to which factors like bullet type, specific shot placement, body habitus/mental state of the people shot, etc. are unknown in the Ellifritz study, we have no way to know to what degree they might be obscuring the effects of other factors.
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Old December 26, 2024, 05:37 PM   #258
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For example, the increased effectiveness of a more powerful caliber might be obscured by better accuracy of a weaker one. Better accuracy of one caliber might be obscured by superior bullet design in another.
Maybe that's what's happening, but whatever is happening, you and I agree that terminal performance differences due to caliber choice are being obscured in the overall outcome.

Obscured is a word that means something, as all words do. It means that the effect is kept from being seen, concealed. The effect of terminal performance differences due to caliber choice on the overall outcome of real-world shootings are kept from being seen--they are concealed, they are not detectable. We agree that they exist but also that they are not great enough to be noted in overall real-world shooting outcomes.

You claim that the effect of terminal performance differences due to caliber choice on the overall outcome of real-world shootings could still be significant even though you agree they are not detectable.

Significant is a word, and therefore it means something as well. It means that whatever it modifies is sufficiently great or important to be worthy of attention; it is noteworthy.

How is something that is kept from being seen, is concealed and undetectable, also sufficiently great or important enough to be worthy of attention? How could it be noteworthy if it can't be noted?

The two words you are trying to put together, 'obscured' and 'significant', just don't go together. They are incompatible.

Imagine someone selling you something that was supposed to provide a significant benefit but also claiming that the effect was obscured in real-world use. "Oh, yes, the effect is significant, but the effect when you use it in the real world is concealed, it is kept from being seen." How much would you pay for a benefit like that? Or would you ask: "If the effect is concealed and kept from being seen in real-world use, how is it helping me in any significant way? There may be an effect, but if it is obscured in the real world, how could it be a significant effect?"

If you are fine with the concept that something can provide a significant benefit in the real world while its effects in real-world use are concealed/obscured in the overall outcome, then I have a deal for you. Send me $127.95 and upon receipt, I will provide you instantly with a significant advantage in real world gun fights although that benefit will be concealed in the overall outcome. Don't worry that the effect in the real world is obscured in the overall outcome and can't be noted, the benefit will be there and it will be noteworthy.

The bottom line is that if the effect of terminal performance differences due to caliber choice on the overall outcome of real-world shootings is obscured, it can not also be significant. As long as we use standard definitions for 'obscured' and 'significant', that statement is essentially unassailable.

That doesn't invalidate your arguments about HOW and WHY the effects could be getting obscured in the real world. I think you are definitely on the right track with some of them. The problem is when it's all said and done, regardless of the how and why of it, the effects ARE obscured and that makes it impossible to argue that they can also be significant. Not because the rationale of the how and why are necessarily wrong but because the words 'obscured' and 'significant' are not compatible.
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Old December 26, 2024, 08:25 PM   #259
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John, increased accuracy had no correlation with increased incapacitation in the Ellifritz study, therefore it's effect was obscured like that of caliber. Now you claim that accuracy has a significant effect on the outcome of real world shootings, yet it's effects were still obscured by other factors. Therefore either accuracy must either have an insignificant effect on the outcome of real world shootings or obscured effects do not prove insignificance.
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Old December 26, 2024, 09:15 PM   #260
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Now you claim that accuracy has a significant effect on the outcome of real world shootings, yet it's effects were still obscured by other factors.
I think there is a point being missed here. It just seem common sense to me that accuracy (defined as the bullet went where it was intended to go) has a huge effect on the outcome of real world shootings.

What I think is being missed is the effect being "obscured" is because of the methodology used in studies, lumping different things into broad categories and then reducing them to percentages and averages.

Quote:
Therefore either accuracy must either have an insignificant effect on the outcome of real world shootings or obscured effects do not prove insignificance.
The "therefore" is a result of how the data is used in the study and accepting the study results as real fact, rather than a blended mathematical that I believe it is,

I'm probably missing something, but it seems to me that when the categories are "head hits" or "Torso hits" out of XXX number of shots fired over XYZ different shootings, there seems to be no way to accurately represent all the factors involves, let along determine which one(s) were "significant" and resulted in stopping the attack.

How can you realistically quantify something like "accuracy" and assign a made up number to a cartridge, when you're looking at hundreds of shots fired by hundreds of different people, at different people in widely different situations?

How can you assign a value to a round because of how people (trained? untrained? a mixture?) shot it under high stress conditions?

How do you consider the variables and what effect they can have over so many vastly different situations? Assign a number (determined HOW??) as "bad shots" and toss that percentage out, then calculate percentages??

I keep coming back to real world things like peripheral hits, and mulitple hits and psychological stops, and don't see how the existing data can accurately represent their effects.

Consider things like Trump was hit in the head. That's a head shot in the statistics, but the bullet only nicked his ear. "failure to stop with a head shot" is what it would be in the statistics, because of the category parameters.

Consider the bad guy hit 17 times before falling down. That's not how many shots it took, its how many shots they used.

Also consider the same case where there are 17hits but only 8 in "vital areas" how do you figure if it took 8 or it only took one, and which one that might have been?? Perhaps the guy was stopped with the first round, but didn't fall down before getting hit with 16 more? Or maybe it was round #8 or#11 that was the actual "stopper". How can the statistics account for that??

And consider the guy who gets hit, once, and decides to stop?? If these and all the other possible factors are lumped together in the data classes, I don't see how the data can be a truly accurate representative sample.

I believe it can show general trends but isn't accurate enough to determine which details (in terms of the different factors involved) are the significant ones and which ones are more responsible for getting the job done, or failing.

I don't know if it makes an important difference whether it is 35 or 45 angels dancing on the head of pin that makes a difference, what I don't see is how arguing about it results in anything actually constructive.
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Old December 27, 2024, 02:02 AM   #261
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John, increased accuracy had no correlation with increased incapacitation in the Ellifritz study, therefore it's effect was obscured like that of caliber. Now you claim that accuracy has a significant effect on the outcome of real world shootings, yet it's effects were still obscured by other factors.
You're very obviously playing games here.

Here's the corrected version, although it doesn't really make sense once corrected.
John, increased accuracy, as defined by Ellifritz, had no correlation with increased incapacitation in the Ellifritz study, therefore it's effect was obscured like that of caliber. Now You claim that accuracy (by the standard definition) has a significant effect on the outcome of real world shootings. , yet it's effects were still obscured by other factors.
You know as well as I do that Ellifritz didn't report accuracy (standard definition) in his study, so implying that he did is disingenuous.

I told you plainly that my comments about accuracy were NOT about "accuracy as defined by Ellifritz" but were about accuracy using its standard definition. Clearly you understand that "accuracy as defined by Ellifritz" is different from "accuracy" or you wouldn't have been careful to specify which type you were talking about when you initially asked the question. I should have been paying closer attention at that point and that would have short circuited this whole gambit.

I have made NO assessments of "accuracy as defined by Ellifritz" and have, in fact, made it plain that I am not going to assess its effects--accepting your assessment instead.

Continuing to imply that I have made some assessment about "accuracy as defined by Ellifritz" other than to say that it's different from normally defined "accuracy" is disingenuous on your part.

Furthermore, from the beginning, I have made it plain that I believe accuracy (by the normal definition) does have an effect on real world shootings, so it's disingenuous to pretend that it's just something I started claiming "now".

Finally intentionally conflating the two definitions of accuracy even though you obviously know they are different is disingenuous.

1. Why do you feel the need to defend your point so strongly that you would stoop to this level?
2. If you feel that you can't defend your point any other way, what does that say about your point?
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Old December 27, 2024, 06:55 AM   #262
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I haven't the slightest idea what either of your arguments are at this point as it relates to the original post. In fact, I'm beginning to suspect you both actually hold the same over-all conclusion but are dueling as a matter of honor over who's interpretation is "more correct." I'm running out of beer and chips, too.
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Old December 27, 2024, 07:27 AM   #263
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That's regrettable, because it's not really that complicated in spite of some concerted efforts to make it so.

Let's start with a fact: In decades of trying, no one has been able to demonstrate that terminal performance differences due to caliber choice within the service pistol class provide a real-world benefit to defenders.

My position is: The obvious difficulty in demonstrating the existence of such a benefit is very strong evidence indeed that if the benefit is ever detected, it will not be a significant benefit.
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Old December 27, 2024, 07:38 AM   #264
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The only thing that was a bigger waste of time in this thread than all the arguing, is the fact that I’ve read the whole thing.
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Old December 27, 2024, 08:31 AM   #265
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Let's start with a fact: In decades of trying, no one has been able to demonstrate that terminal performance differences due to caliber choice within the service pistol class provide a real-world benefit to defenders.

My position is: The obvious difficulty in demonstrating the existence of such a benefit is very strong evidence indeed that if the benefit is ever detected, it will not be a significant benefit.
I agree. Too many variables in other words, right? But I doubt anyone on this thread really disagrees with that.
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Old December 27, 2024, 11:19 AM   #266
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John, if you reject Ellifritz's definition of accuracy, then please enlighten me as to how we can see the effects of accuracy, by "standard definition", in the results of Ellifritz's study. I chose to use Ellifritz's definition because that is what he used when collecting and compiling his data.

Quote:
Let's start with a fact: In decades of trying, no one has been able to demonstrate that terminal performance differences due to caliber choice within the service pistol class provide a real-world benefit to defenders.
Yet in all those decades we've only gotten two serious studies, one which has been largely discredited and another with methodology that yields inconclusive results. Your argument basically boils down to "if it were significant, someone would've proven it by now," but it appears to me that not all that many people have been interested in studying the effects of caliber in real world shootings opting instead for laboratory and/or live animal testing.

Quote:
My position is: The obvious difficulty in demonstrating the existence of such a benefit is very strong evidence indeed that if the benefit is ever detected, it will not be a significant benefit.
And my position is that the methodology of the two studies we have on the topic are so flawed that they're not useful in detecting the effects of much of anything, much less assigning significance so it is unwise to draw conclusions based on such flawed studies.

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Old December 27, 2024, 01:30 PM   #267
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Starting with the testing on the unfortunate livestock many years ago we’ve had a total of 3 published studies on this?
Makes me think if the subject were more politically correct I’m sure a hundred or more university studies, funded by the taxpayers, would have been done by now.

Until someone wants to fully fund such a study I feel what we have is what we got.
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Old December 27, 2024, 01:36 PM   #268
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Goats, buddy, goats.
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Old December 27, 2024, 02:16 PM   #269
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Cadavers, cattle and horses. Close to goats.
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Old December 27, 2024, 02:46 PM   #270
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I dont understand the resistance to the FBI data.
Consistent media
Various intermediate barriers to effect performance
Ability to compare apples to apples

I’ll give you that gel is not people, but its a consistent media to compare depth of penetration and expansion across calibers and different bullets.
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Old December 27, 2024, 03:04 PM   #271
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lol. So, we're doing this again?

I could have sworn we left it at "45ACP is slightly 'better' than 9mm, but 9mm has more rounds.".

Pros and cons aside from capacity aren't that different.
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Old December 27, 2024, 03:07 PM   #272
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There are now giant screaming goats in my head,,,AGAIN!

Thanks so much for that...
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Old December 27, 2024, 03:21 PM   #273
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LOL @ screaming goats. Nightmare fuel.
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Old December 27, 2024, 03:33 PM   #274
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John, if you reject Ellifritz's definition of accuracy...
I never said that I rejected it. What I said was that I had not, and was not going to, make any assessment of it and would accept your assessment instead. Are you trying to force me to disagree with your assessment?
Quote:
...enlighten me as to how we can see the effects of accuracy, by "standard definition", in the results of Ellifritz's study.
I never said we could. I said that accuracy (normal definition) has a detectable and significant effect on real-world shootings. I guess you can try to figure out how to relate that fact to Ellifritz's study results, but I don't know how and therefore I can't provide the enlightenment you desire.
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... it appears to me that not all that many people have been interested in studying the effects of caliber in real world shootings...
Urey Patrick, the FBI's expert explained why it was going to be very difficult to get answers from studying real-world shootings. I quoted him earlier in the thread on post #75. Fackler was apparently of the same opinion. The problems with getting answers from real-world shootings moved the focus to gel testing.
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...opting instead for laboratory and/or live animal testing.
As far as I can tell, there has been no verifiable systematic live animal testing of handgun rounds since the Thompson-Lagarde tests. Everyone went to gel testing.

The great thing about gel testing is that it's very controlled, it's repeatable and one can measure the results very carefully and get good numbers. This allows one to rank calibers even if their terminal performance differences are small.

The problem with gel testing is that no one has been able to correlate those results to the outcomes of real-world shootings and show that the rankings relate to any sort of benefit to the defender based on the terminal performance differences measured in the gel. You have made some good arguments to explain why that is true to add to the ones I've provided.
Quote:
And my position is that the methodology of the two studies we have on the topic are so flawed that they're not useful in detecting the effects of much of anything, much less assigning significance so it is unwise to draw conclusions based on such flawed studies.
This ignores the underlying reason we have so few studies to work with. The cognoscenti abandoned the analysis of real-world shootings as a means to discriminate between calibers in the service pistol class over three decades ago because it was a dead end. It's very difficult or impossible to detect any differences. Patrick made that clear by stating that even 100 shootings wouldn't be enough to produce results, saying "very large numbers of shooting incidents" would be necessary. He threw out the number 1000 but hedged by saying that even with that many shootings, only a small number of shootings out of that 1000 might actually show a real-world benefit to the defender.

By the way, as a point of interest, he characterized target destruction percentages as 0.07% and 0.04% in one comment which is interesting since that agrees well (as it should) with the estimate I arrived at from crunching a bunch of FBI gel results.

At any rate, we are almost certainly not going to get any better studies of real-world shootings than we already have because the experts gave up on that well before the turn of the century once they realized that the real world was making it impossible to show the differences in calibers.

Which is a result in itself, and perfectly consistent with my position.
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Old December 27, 2024, 03:35 PM   #275
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LOL @ screaming goats. Nightmare fuel.
Not if they have been debleated.
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