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Old January 15, 2016, 11:35 AM   #1
Glenn E. Meyer
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Active shooters simulation

https://www.gunsamerica.com/blog/new...d-carry-drill/

This is an interesting piece. It demonstrates that civilians can have a positive effect in a critical incident. Notice that all had some training. This is a good counter point to those who think we are helpless in a situation. It is a counter point to the old Diane Sawyer faked demo on ABC which proposed civilian guns are useless.

I do note that open carry was not a good idea.
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Old January 15, 2016, 01:19 PM   #2
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Good information.

A 50/50 chance of a positive outcome is certainly an improvement over no chance at all.

I note that not a single 'innocent bystander' was shot by the CCW employees.

This needs to be staged several dozen times, with trained and untrained people, and with no prior knowledge of the test, for a better set of statistics.
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Old January 15, 2016, 03:04 PM   #3
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It is a counter point to the old Diane Sawyer faked demo on ABC which proposed civilian guns are useless.
+1.

It sure is and I'm glad somebody did this. I hope it gets a lot of publicity.

Personally for me it's just very simple. Ask the anti-gun folk, "Hey, you're in a line up at your school/shopping center/church/business, waiting to get executed...would you like to have a gun or not?"
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Old January 15, 2016, 03:11 PM   #4
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I don't think their process was very scientific. I'm not sure it, like the Dan Sawyer special, really shows anything.

It would be interesting if a good simulation was run double blind with a realistically trained attacker along with victims.
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Old January 15, 2016, 03:35 PM   #5
Glenn E. Meyer
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Now who is going to fund such study?

We get what we can. If some rich person wants to fund me with salary and resources, I am quite capable of setting it up.

It would be in the 6 figure domain for the real deal. Takers?
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Old January 15, 2016, 04:25 PM   #6
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You can't do a true double blind test, everyone has to know about the simulation or someone is going to have a heart attack. The best you can do is have folks select their paint gun, like any CCW person would have done, and run the test.

You could have a CCW person 'die' early on and see who picks up his weapon and retaliates. That would be helpful.
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Old January 15, 2016, 04:47 PM   #7
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Wouldn't the New Life Church shooting count as a civilian V. active shooter with a positive outcome?
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Old January 15, 2016, 05:00 PM   #8
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It seems those who were liberal with their shooting, and quick to go for the head, were the ones who prevailed.

I would hope the woman learned that she needs to work on her marksmanship and speed. She shot like someone who only shoots at a bullseye target in practice.

Why her husband continued to waste time and ammo on the vest is a wonderment. His comment was a bit odd too. Its also kind of odd they had the most time in training too. Wonder where/who that was with?

The open carry thing makes complete sense, if you have any.
Not that that will be popular with those who advocate it.

FoF is a great training aide. Its also very much like sparring the first time in martial arts. Youre all pumped up with all your newly acquired kata skills, and then that first punch or kick is thrown and landed, and it all goes out the window in panic. Mike Tysons quote sums it up nicely..... " Everybody's got a plan, until they get punched in the mouth."
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Old January 15, 2016, 05:43 PM   #9
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New Life is sometimes discounted as Ms. Assam used to be police officer. That separates her from the rank and file carrier in these arguments.

Does Joe O'carryconcealed have that sort of training?

Got to be ready for the counter arguments?

No one is hiring me to run the research yet? Oh, come - you must have a few hundred thousand lying around.
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Old January 15, 2016, 05:43 PM   #10
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Just an afterthought here .....

It would be interesting to see how it would have played out with the CCW people using guns so often chosen these days, J frames, LCP's, etc., instead of what were more or less full size, high cap guns. Not that those type Airsoft guns are readily available. The J frames would be easy enough to work out though.

If what you normally carry, fits the category above, may want to pay attention to the number of rounds that were fired, and how quickly they were in most cases. Also, are you practiced enough that you can you shoot those little guns well and in that capacity?

In most of those cases, the distances involved were all well within the capability of those guns, but how many actually practice getting them quickly into action, and shoot them realistically, to be able to make those hits. Would you waste time on COM, like most are taught, or would you go right for the head?
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Old January 15, 2016, 06:10 PM   #11
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Glenn, if you want to set up some sort of "go fund me" site for this project, I'll chip in a couple hundred.
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Old January 15, 2016, 06:31 PM   #12
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I think even as much as the deck was stacked against them a couple of the people on the ABC piece did pretty well. I seem to remember 2 of them getting hits and I always wonder what got edited out.

Personally, I don't intend to stand and fight against a terrorist or an active shooter. If I can get me and mine out of the area that's my primary mission.
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Old January 15, 2016, 06:34 PM   #13
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Oh, come - you must have a few hundred thousand lying around.
What?! You mean YOUR lottery ticket didn't hit on Wednesday???

(And ha ha ha...the joke is on the ones that DID win! There's THREE of 'em so they'll only get ONE THIRD of the $1.6 billion. Hardly worth driving to the SA to get a ticket...)

(So says Dale who lives in a state where almost everybody can easily deal with not winning the lottery but would have a terrible hard time dealing with one of their neighbors winning the thing---lucky for us that didn't happen.)
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Old January 15, 2016, 07:41 PM   #14
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Send that link to Obama and Hillary.
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Old January 15, 2016, 09:29 PM   #15
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Glenn, if you want to set up some sort of "go fund me" site for this project, I'll chip in a couple hundred.
I'd chip in a bit also.
If serious, I'm guessing you wouldn't have too much trouble finding someone to volunteer time making a basic website.

As far as double blind, they do have to know something about what is going on, but like ABC's there are ways to make it a surprise by making them think they are still in orientation when it occurs.

Honestly, isn't a project like this exactly what the NRA is supposed to be doing? There would be all kinds of training lessons gained they could roll out in their various classes, articles in the magazines, their news channel, etc. All that on top of the direct RKBA value. Just one of those things that leaves me scratching my head and writing a check to SAF.
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Old January 15, 2016, 10:02 PM   #16
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It would be a very large expense to do a very complete study. Let me think about it for a bit.
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Old January 15, 2016, 10:06 PM   #17
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I'm interested. The CPA wife asked if this would be tax deductible if it's through a higher education facility?
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Old January 15, 2016, 10:27 PM   #18
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I would point out that the 50/50 odds were for a shooter that is an active SWAT officer with 22 years of experience. That is pretty darn good. I would like to see that experiment re run using some random people with very little experience as the bad guys.
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Old January 15, 2016, 10:35 PM   #19
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Its impossible to do a real study on the subject.

If im in the study, yoh equip me with a sim gun and tell me whats going to occur. I KNOW its faked. Regardless if it happens during the orientation or not. IF i think its real im not going to use the "sim" gun.

No way to get REAL data, cause the situation is never "real"
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Old January 15, 2016, 10:43 PM   #20
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Gun Talk Media's 1st Person Defender series on youtube.com has a couple of active shooter episodes. It takes average gun owners and puts them into self defense situations using simunitions.
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Old January 16, 2016, 01:16 AM   #21
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The CPA wife asked if this would be tax deductible
Your CPA wife knows better than that. However, if Glenn did get someone to fund his study, he would need to report the income from the funding on his annual tax return.

Stay safe.
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Old January 16, 2016, 01:30 AM   #22
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Originally Posted by Jim243
Your CPA wife knows better than that. However, if Glenn did get someone to fund his study, he would need to report the income from the funding on his annual tax return.
Actually no.

I could probably set up a non-profit educational corporation to conduct the study and secure a 501(c)(3) tax exemption. So contributions to the corporation would be tax deductible by the donor and not taxable to the corporation.

Of course any compensation paid to Glenn or any other employee or contractor of the corporation would be taxable as ordinary income to the employee/contractor.
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Old January 16, 2016, 09:16 AM   #23
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I would point out that the 50/50 odds were for a shooter that is an active SWAT officer with 22 years of experience. That is pretty darn good. I would like to see that experiment re run using some random people with very little experience as the bad guys.
I had similar thoughts. It seems to me that the trend towards "self radicalization" and "lone wolf attacks" is a trend towards less training and more amateurism by terrorists, tipping the odds a bit more towards a defender.

(Yes, I know that terrorist attacks are a low-probability scenario, but it was the scenario presented in the test.)
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Old January 16, 2016, 03:09 PM   #24
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Its impossible to do a real study on the subject.

If im in the study, you equip me with a sim gun and tell me whats going to occur. I KNOW its faked. Regardless if it happens during the orientation or not. IF i think its real im not going to use the "sim" gun.

No way to get REAL data, cause the situation is never "real"
That basic sentiment holds true for pretty much every study I've ever designed, participated in, or read. Doubly so for those involving human subjects. Well at least those performed in the last 50 years or so. All kinds of policy decisions are still made based on such studies.

There are ways to get much better results than those we have seen. The Diane Sawyers was absolutely lopsided. This small stations attempt really leaned to our benefit. Basically putting the "victim" in condition orange with every thought in his mind being centered toward moving to condition red.
They make for great ratings, but anyone with a brain knows they are really as worthless as the anti-gun CNN web polls. All those show is pro-gun groups are much better at organizing a drive to click on a link.

Last edited by johnwilliamson062; January 16, 2016 at 03:33 PM.
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Old January 17, 2016, 11:02 AM   #25
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Not sure at all, that a 'study' would show anything you could bank on. In a group setting, there are so many variables, that figuring out what would happen, or determining later what did happen and why, is almost impossible. Utilizing that result to make a decision on a different scenario just extends the pointlessness of the whole thing.
What I do believe, is that armed Citizens, highly trained or not, will react in some manner not expected by their attackers, and will certainly result in a different outcome than the attackers anticipated.
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