Main Cause of the Current Ammo Shortage?

[ghbucky]

6 months ago I would have thought that was ridiculous.

Now they have educated me.

[DukeConnor]

I may have something to do with the shortage. Sorry

[JohnKSa]

Every ammo shortage I've seen (over the past 30 years) has had the same cause and the same resolution.

Cause: Panic buying in excess of what the manufacturers can match with production.
Resolution: People calm down and manufacturers catch up.

Every ammo shortage I've seen has also been "decorated" with conspiracy theories that claim panic buying isn't the cause and it's something much more sinister and strategic. None of them panned out.

[44 AMP]

a guy who stood in line for 5 hours in front of me innocently explaining that he was there to buy a gun for someone else and getting hostile when told it was a crime.

It's not always a crime. If I had to stand in line for 5 hours, (for anything) I'd be pretty hostile, too!

You can, legally, buy a gun for someone else (assuming they can legally possess it) as a gift. The forms have to be filled out correctly, and some questions answered differently, but it can legally be done.
things get tricksy and if you state YOU are the buyer but your intent is getting the gun for someone else, you could be breaking the law.

Simpler and safer these days to just give the intended the money/gift certificate, and have them buy it (and do the paperwork) for themselves.

As to the cause of the ammo shortage, its simple supply and demand. Just like anything else. Manufacturers produce a supply to meet the AVERAGE demand. IF demand drops drastically, expensive machinery sits idle, costing them money. When demand spikes drastically, such as with the recent panic buying, existing stocks are sold out and there is a lag period before manufacturing can ramp up production to meet the demand. During that time, we have a "shortage".

Its like when the boa constrictor swallows a pig whole. Things get pretty blocked up for a while, but "eventually, this too, shall pass"...

[HiBC]

As to the cause of the ammo shortage, its simple supply and demand. Just like anything else. Manufacturers produce a supply to meet the AVERAGE demand. IF demand drops drastically, expensive machinery sits idle, costing them money. When demand spikes drastically, such as with the recent panic buying, existing stocks are sold out and there is a lag period before manufacturing can ramp up production to meet the demand. During that time, we have a "shortage".

Agreed,and realize tha supply chain the ammo manufacturer relies on is also geared to meet average production.

From the time an order is placed,how long does it take to get a shipping container of powder from Australia?
How long for coils of cartridge brass strips? (I assume blanks are punched out of coiled strips)

Now add the complexity of ship crews,COVID,,and other factors I know nothing about.

What is someplace between sad and amusing,it was not long ago,right here on TFL,was a post complaining about "The Trump Slump" in the gun market.

Zounds!! there was no panic.Life seemed stable. The shelves were filling with stock.

It must be Trump's fault. It is incredible that one Man would have the near infinite power to be the cause of every complaint,real or imagined,in the world.

Wow.Remember when the world was all Utopia,rainbows,and scent free Unicorn farts before Nov 2016?

[ghbucky]

Remember when the world was all Utopia,rainbows,and scent free Unicorn farts before Nov 2016?

My wife would tell you that all problems before then were Bush's fault.

[HiBC]

My wife would tell you that all problems before then were Bush's fault.

I'm just going to let that one go by.

[Swifty Morgan]

Am I the only one wiping my rear end with ammo boxes?

[TXAZ]

There's a coming silver lining for all this rush if you're patient: In a few months to a year (look for the vaccine and fed up homeowners shooting (not in the knee) anarchist and being no-billed), then people are going to realize they don't need the guns and ammo as much as rent, food and medications. I've already seen a few near-new / never / little used rifles purchased on local boards and expect more to follow.

Prices of guns and ammo are going to be coming down once people realize COVID-19 and anarchy is chilling.

But we'll see.

[TruthTellers]

The wave of millions of new/first time gun owners that has been hitting since March is a very large reason why ammo is practically gone.

To think that 4 months ago we all thought it was going to be a buyer's market for guns by this time, I say if there's anything you've been thinking of selling, there's no better time than now.

[reynolds357]

Yep. Buy in the glut and sell in the famine. Ole supply and demand.

[SHR970]

Depends on where you are. Here in Kali you need to go through a FFL and a background check to get ammo now. Ca. DoJ is "running behind" AND has a better than 1 in 6 false fail rate report coupled with being "back logged". Then there is the typical supply and demand issues....based on steady state supply which we are not dealing with currently.

[ARSG12]

Let's not forget the fact that there are strong demands for the police to be defunded, which is now happening. NY has cut funding by a billion dollars, and the "defunders" still aren't satisfied. There is even talk of it being done at the federal level.

Small wonder that more people are now buying guns! They're realizing after watching the riots on TV what can happen in their own area, especially if the police are no longer going to be there to stop (or stand by and watch) it happen. They know that we may all be responsible for protecting ourselves, with no more "911" to call.

[reynolds357]

Originally Posted by ARSG12

Let's not forget the fact that there are strong demands for the police to be defunded, which is now happening. NY has cut funding by a billion dollars, and the "defunders" still aren't satisfied. There is even talk of it being done at the federal level.

Small wonder that more people are now buying guns! They're realizing after watching the riots on TV what can happen in their own area, especially if the police are no longer going to be there to stop (or stand by and watch) it happen. They know that we may all be responsible for protecting ourselves, with no more "911" to call.

I must admit that I hope they defund the scale police. I would be a welcome sight to see their chicken coops closed.

[ghbucky]

IMHO, all of this 'defund police' talk will vanish in November. The police are simply too important as revenue generators to many of these large cities for them to truly go away.

Reynold's scale police make money for states. They won't give that up.

Meanwhile, the public is responding to what they are hearing by snapping up guns and ammo.

OTOH, I ordered some ammo yesterday morning and had a tracking # in about 45 minutes. I emailed the company commenting on how fast they responded and they told me they had finally worked through their huge surge in orders, so I think we are coming to the end of the scarcity.

[DangerousDane]

I agree that this will all be over in November. This stuff always ramps up right into the elections then we go into election fraud talk for a few years haha

[Bartholomew Roberts]

Most of the “defund police” thing is a just kabuki theater. Dallas PD for example had 268 vacancies they were unable to fill in 2019. NYPD had something like 200 retirements in the last month.

They are “cutting” phantom positions that they’ve been unable to fill because they can’t find qualified people willing to do the job for that money and they don’t want to pay more. It is that rare trifecta for politicians. You get to look like you are responding swiftly to your constituents and get rid of a problem you couldn’t fix simultaneously. And nobody asks questions about where the money went that was supposed to be used to hire more cops in the meantime.

Of course eventually, the 3200 guys you do have will get tired of doing the work of the 3800 positions your outside consulting firm determined were the absolute minimum to achieve your goal and that hole will get even bigger. But the “defund the police” thing won’t have anything to do with it.

[seanc]

Of course eventually, the 3200 guys you do have will get tired of doing the work of the 3800 positions your outside consulting firm determined were the absolute minimum to achieve your goal and that hole will get even bigger. But the “defund the police” thing won’t have anything to do with it.

Perception is reality. So will be the inevitable increase in crime and lowering of quality of life. Let the Defunders own this. They created the environment where no sane person would want to become a cop in the 1st place.

[Bartholomew Roberts]

I don’t disagree with you there, seanc. Demoralizing is faster and probably more effective than defunding. But the actual “funds” being removed were either never there to begin with or had been replaced with an “IOU - Councilman Gone T. Mexico”

[cw308]

Look at my State , that's why.

[Shadow9mm]

The reason for the shortage, people are panic buying all the ammo. This is not a new thing, it always goes in cycles and it is always feast or famine.

My Solution. Buy it deep stack it cheap long term. Rather than buying in bulk and clearing the shelves I set aside money for ammo every payday. I do a split, for example, if I want to shoot handguns once a month I buy 2-3 boxes, shoot one stash the other 1 or 2 (with a date on it). Over the years I have been able to build up a decent buffer so I can keep shooting like normal when things get weird. If most people did this rather than panic buy there would be plenty of ammo on the shelves.

[cw308]

Look what just happened in Missouri where the couple stood outside their home to protect their property from that BLM mob , the DA sided with the mob. Pick a side . Why stock up on ammo , box them in and do what comes natural.

[7.62 man]

Everyone always stocks up before a Presidential election. Look what happened when Obama got in. Prices of ammo shot up for years & was almost impossible to find. All the civil unrest gave it another kick in the ****.

[joeranger]

Before I chime in on why...should I suspend my search for 9mm? I stocked up when Dick's stopped selling and got great deals on everything else but all the 9mm was gone.
"Don't shoot your last box" Oops At the range, my son was shooting and I went to grab another box and the ammo bag was "missing" 9mm. I told my son to stop shooting!!! I have 2 rnds for my CC.

[ghbucky]

https://ammoseek.com/

[edit] starting price for plinking 9mm is .35/round