July 20, 2019, 11:56 AM | #1 |
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NJ gun owners
I just finished reviewing another bunch of new laws signed by New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy. He vows to make NJ the gun-free state.
Am curious if any of the Governor’s despotic laws have impacted crime. Since the mainstream media declines to print any news that may present private gun ownership in a positive view or the failure of gun control legislation to reduce crime, if anyone has crime vs legislation stats I would appreciate same.
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July 20, 2019, 01:40 PM | #2 | |
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2. New Jersey ranks near the bottom with 228 violent crimes per 100,000 citizens. 3. States having the most violent crimes per 100,000 citizens are Alaska (829), New Mexico (783), Tennessee (651) https://www.statista.com/statistics/...the-us-states/ |
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July 20, 2019, 01:44 PM | #3 |
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The FBI published crime statistics by state on an annual basis. We are now in 2019 so the most recent data available will probably be only up through 2018 (or maybe 2017), but it's a start. I don't have a link handy, but you should be able to access the reports through a search engine.
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July 20, 2019, 03:10 PM | #4 |
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NJ gun owners
I’m out... sort of.
Bought a house 10 minutes from work in Maine. Still down in Georgia for training, and have another five weeks to go. Then, packing everything up and making the final move. Also have to stop in Pennsylvania to grab all the stuff that Mr Ed turned illegal by a swipe of the pen (which I’m shocked he even knows how to spell his own name). Cost of living, taxes, and everything else is outrageous in NJ. I have a similar house, a little more property (with a stream nearby), and paid less than half for it and will be about a quarter of the taxes. I’m glad to be out of that cesspool. Last edited by Screwball; July 20, 2019 at 09:38 PM. |
July 20, 2019, 03:43 PM | #5 | |
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July 20, 2019, 03:45 PM | #6 | |
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Felt the same way when I left NYC to go to college; except for 3 years in CO/ND, I have always enjoyed living in a state with ZERO state income taxes. Where I live now, my taxes are about $600/year, my monthly utility bill was $260 - for five utilities - gas, water, sewer, electric and garbage; two months ago it was $105, but since the heat has been 95+ for 60 days, it's gone up a little. Sure don't mind my small town that is 20 minutes from a very large city. Close enough for doctors and major shopping, far enough away so traffic, crime etc. are basically non-existent. As to the crime stats, IDK if NYC's crime rates being less than a few decades ago are due to tight gun control or just better policing methods.
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July 21, 2019, 05:14 AM | #7 | |
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When I lived in PA where I had a license to carry, but I worked in Salem, NJ where I couldn’t legally carry, and I had to drive through Wilmington DE each way where I couldn’t legally carry, I didn’t feel safe when I had to drive home after dark, which I had to do quite often. The first rule of carrying a firearm is to avoid situations which require you to carry in the first place which is sometimes difficult to do.
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July 21, 2019, 08:01 AM | #8 | |
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Just curious... People complain about Colorado's new governor and how 'bad' it has gotten in Colorado.. I just bought a shotgun..took about 10 minutes..about 3 weeks ago I bought a Glock 43..took about 10 minutes. I went to Tanner Gun Show yesterday...lots of people walking out with all sorts of new purchases.... So..
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July 21, 2019, 09:08 AM | #9 |
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violent crimes also include domestic assaults (most of which are misdemeanors) and sexual assaults (most of which are committed by a person known to the victim). if you want to compare armed robbery and other street crime (stranger on stranger) it will give you a better idea of what the average person would face in the day to day environment.
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July 21, 2019, 11:05 AM | #10 | |
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July 21, 2019, 11:08 AM | #11 | |
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July 21, 2019, 11:24 AM | #12 | |
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July 21, 2019, 11:40 AM | #13 |
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Yes, crime stats can be easily manipulated. A favorite tactic in Chicago, for example, is to downgrade a robbery into "theft of lost or mislaid property" even when it was forcibly taken from a victim. Or they make reporting crimes so time-consuming and impractical that much goes unreported.
Last edited by Armed_Chicagoan; July 21, 2019 at 12:00 PM. |
July 21, 2019, 01:11 PM | #14 |
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For those who don't want to even look at the FBI statistics because you don't trust them ... what's your alternative for the OP, who wants to find some statistics that prove or disprove the NJ governor's position?
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July 22, 2019, 11:35 PM | #15 | |
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Simply, get rich. Rich enough to commission (buy) your own study. Plenty of folks out there who will come up with statistics to prove or disprove what ever position you are paying for them to take. Then you get to claim a "valid statistical study" shows.....(insert your claim here) Until /unless someone challenges your study and debunks it with THEIR study... Ever notice that when someone is advertising to get you to invest/buy stocks, there's always a disclaimer about how "past performance is no guarantee of future results" ? (probably some law requiring it...) WHY isn't there such a disclaimer about other "studies"???
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July 23, 2019, 12:31 AM | #16 |
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Suppose those doctored FBI statistics support our position despite having been (maybe) fudged a bit?
Link to the FBI data for 2017: https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s.../violent-crime Let's look first at national averages: Violent crime: 394 per 100,000 population Murder and non-negligent manslaughter: 5.3 per 100,000 Rape: 41.7 per 100,000 Robbery: 98.0 per 100,000 Aggravated assault: 248.9 per 100,000 Now let's look at New Jersey: Violent crime: 228.8 per 100,000 population Murder and non-negligent manslaughter: 3.6 per 100,000 Rape: 16.7 per 100,000 Robbery: 87.7 per 100,000 Aggravated assault: 120.8 per 100,000 Wow! New Jersey is better than the national average in all categories. Gun control must work, right? Then let's look at Pennsylvania, which is right across the river from NJ. PA allows unlicensed open carry, and a concealed carry permit costs (IIRC) $25 for five years, with no training requirement, only a basic criminal background check. Pennsylvania: Violent crime: 313.3 per 100,000 population [well below national average] Murder and non-negligent manslaughter: 5.8 per 100,000 [slightly worse than the national average] Rape: 32.8 per 100,000 [well below the national average] Robbery: 92.1 per 100,000 [below the national average] Aggravated assault: 182.6 per 100,000 [well below the national average] Hmmm ... New Jersey's numbers are a bit better than Pennsylvania's. BUT ... Pennsylvania's numbers are still much better than the national average, and not all that far behind New Jersey, withOUT the benefit of the draconian (and potentially unconstitutional) anti-gun laws. Then factor in the possibility that New Jersey may (speculation on my part!) be cooking the books on what they report to the FBI more than Pennsylvania does, and I think even the FBI's statistics bear out the argument that draconian gun control isn't as effective in controlling crime as the proponents want us to believe. |
July 23, 2019, 08:44 AM | #17 |
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There are far too many variables for those statistics to have any bearing whatsoever on the relationship between firearm laws and crime.
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July 23, 2019, 10:48 AM | #18 | |
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Pick an anti-gun law. What year was it passed? Dredge up the FBI statistics for the five years before passage and the five years after passage. Did any category of violent crime go down significantly following passage of the law? If so, maybe the law had some effect. If not -- clearly the law didn't accomplish what it was intended to accomplish. |
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July 23, 2019, 11:05 AM | #19 |
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Lower violent crime is a good thing, no matter the cause, yes?
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July 23, 2019, 11:15 AM | #20 | |
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There is a significant difference between a relationship, and a cause/effect conclusion. Correlation is not causation. I'll point it out again, statistics are a compilation of facts. Conclusions "based" on statistics are OPINIONS, and may or may not be accurate, or even relevant. Suppose you do a study and find that 99.9995% of convicted murders in the US ate bread or a bread product within 30 days of committing murder. That would be a fact. Stating that bread or bread products cause murder, so we should ban/restrict bread flour is a conclusion, an opinion, NOT a fact. There is a way, statistically to reduce all crime in New Jersey to 0 (zero). Abolish the state of New Jersey! Statistically, it would work!
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July 23, 2019, 06:19 PM | #21 | ||
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Let's not forget the original question that started this discussion: Quote:
Secondly, you can dig into the FBI stats beyond the state level, to get data on individual cities and metropolitan areas. By comparing the stats for states and cities with strict anti-gun laws against states and cities with "lax" gun control laws, we can at least see if there's a correlation. If the stats don't show a statistically significant correlation ... again, we've learned something. |
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July 23, 2019, 11:19 PM | #22 |
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There are also MANY related factors to crime rates. How common is organized crime, drug use, youth unemployment, etc? Were there sentencing changes for crimes? Did the definition of crimes change? How was the economy? How much of the young adult population was exposed to significant quantities of lead as children (which actually correlates really well to many crime statistics!).
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July 24, 2019, 07:43 AM | #23 |
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violent crime and non-violent crime stats generally follow demographics and certain political strongholds. a comparison between NJ and Penna was made but this includes violent political strongholds of Philadelphia and Pittsburg. "breaking" in to unlocked cars and stealing laptops and Rayban sunglasses does not equal night club shootings. I know politics is not welcome here but if you want an honest look at what is truly violent crime you have to look at the local stats which sway the state average as a whole. Illinois is a good example of how political strongholds and their violence make the rest of the state look bad in aggregate. Vermont is a left leaning state with low violent street crime and very few gun restrictions. it is also a bit more homogenous population wise.
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July 24, 2019, 10:59 AM | #24 | |||
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The opening post in this thread asked for sources of statistics. The FBI has statistics. Are they infallible? No. If you know of a better source to which to refer the OP, feel free to provide a link. Another potential resource would be the work of John Lott. However, I don't have any links. |
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July 24, 2019, 11:04 AM | #25 | |
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