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Old May 7, 2015, 09:47 AM   #126
jbrown50
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Quote:
1) The single most likely outcome from drawing the gun is: the assailant runs away.

2) The single most likely outcome from drawing the gun and firing (but missing) is: the assailant runs away.

3) The single most likely outcome from drawing the gun and hitting (but a marginal hit) is: the assailant runs away.

4) The single most likely outcome from drawing the gun and hitting with a good solid center mass, upper center chest hit is: the assailant runs away.

5) The single most likely ouycome from drawing the gun and hitting with a fast series of good solid center mass, upper center chest hits is: the assailant runs away.

It's only in the movies where people drop dead in their tracks. More often, they turn around and start beating feet in the opposite direction. "Oh, my, look at the time! I must be elsewhere now!"

And that's good. That's stopping the threat.

If the assailant plops over dead at your feet, that might be a bonus to some ways of thinking.

But it's not the most likely outcome, even with excellent, speedy, appropriately-aimed shots that hit the guy right in the heart. And if you plan to keep firing until he's dead at your feet (and no other outcome will do in your mind), then you will likely do stupid stuff like chase the bad guy out the door and shoot him in the back as he runs away.

And that's ... suboptimal, both legally and practically.

pax
Ah...... In other words it won't be anything like the typical non-adrenaline rushed day at the range shooting at those elusive stationary paper targets, nor will it be like the choreographed entertainment in the movies and TV.

Imagine that.
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Old May 7, 2015, 10:22 AM   #127
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Posted by Moomooboo:
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This is one forum with a small microcosm of people. I believe this is what they call anecdotal evidence.
True indeed.

Quote:
Just because one resides among a group of people who think the same does not mean other groups who think differently do not exist in equal or larger numbers.
Even a quick and incomplete review of other fora, established training companies and academies, books, and articles will show rather conclusively that many--not all, but most--of those who "think differently" have simply not made the effort to inform themselves.

Quote:
You have one way to thinking, i have another.
That is obvious.

Quote:
You go through risk management i go by statistics to assess.
Statistical analysis, performed properly, is the very basis of risk management.

Quote:
You discount my conclusions and state that i am not listening to reason when there is little evidence that i will ever need a mag. Yours is based primarily off of mitigating a situation which may not occur, mine is based off of situations which have occured.
All risk management involves deciding whether, and if so how, to mitigate a situation that may not occur.

But you are going about it wrong. First, you decide whether or not to carry a weapon, based on assessment of likelihood, severity of consequences, and what would be involved in doing so.

Then you look, independently, at the next tier of risks. In this case, a malfunction.

Let me try to put it simply for you using an example that you should be able to understand.

A fire in the kitchen is very unlikely, right? But you might like to be able to handle it. You might, or might not, choose to keep a fire extinguisher handy. I do.

But would you select one that would likely handle fires in a very limited subset of circumstances, simply because the risk is unlikely to ever materialize?

No. No one would responsibly do so. One does not buy an extinguisher that may not function reliably just base fire are unlikely. Should a fire occur, one will want a very good one.

That's obviously not a perfect analogy, but perhaps it will help get the point across.

Regarding your assertion that you are basing anything on "situations which have occurred", you have no idea at all what has occurred and what has not. No one does. There are only two small data sets containing any details of civilian defensive shootings, and only one can be verified by the public.

There are reasons why the data are not available, and I have explained them.
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Old May 7, 2015, 08:44 PM   #128
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A lot of folks seem adamantly opposed to carrying a spare magazine. The focus of the objection seems to be a spare mag is unnecessary. But, are there any good reasons not to carry a spare?

The reason I have not been carrying a spare mag is it is convenient not to do so. A more brutal way of phrasing my rationale is I am being slothful. Sloth and a minor convenience are not good reasons. In the recent failed self-defense trial in ME the fact that the shooter was carrying two spare mags was used against him as a sign of premeditation, which, despite sounding scary, is not a good reason, because carrying a gun even without reloads could also be deemed evidence of premeditation.

I endorse a person's choice to arm himself or not and to carry as much or as little ammo as he wants. Many good reasons have been offered for carrying reloads, but are there any good reasons (other than non-necessity) to carry no reloads?
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Old May 7, 2015, 10:50 PM   #129
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Quote:
A lot of folks seem adamantly opposed to carrying a spare magazine. The focus of the objection seems to be a spare mag is unnecessary. But, are there any good reasons not to carry a spare?


^ good one. I am one of those that don't. and I can honestly say "no", there isn't really a good reason NOT to......

that short post was probably the only one of six pages to make me actually consider doing it tomorrow.
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Old May 8, 2015, 02:33 PM   #130
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Weird,

I can't do a quote and reply. In response to Oldman.




"Even a quick and incomplete review of other fora, established training companies and academies, books, and articles will show rather conclusively that many--not all, but most--of those who "think differently" have simply not made the effort to inform themselves."

-And again you go saying people are wrong and ignorant because they don't believe in what you have to say. Please stray away from this.


"Statistical analysis, performed properly, is the very basis of risk management."

- Sure, and there are different ways to look and interpret statistics. Statistics are numbers, how you choose to interpret and analyze them are different. You have one, I have another, but you are stating that I am wrong.


"All risk management involves deciding whether, and if so how, to mitigate a situation that may not occur. But you are going about it wrong. First, you decide whether or not to carry a weapon, based on assessment of likelihood, severity of consequences, and what would be involved in doing so. Then you look, independently, at the next tier of risks. In this case, a malfunction.

Let me try to put it simply for you using an example that you should be able to understand. A fire in the kitchen is very unlikely, right? But you might like to be able to handle it. You might, or might not, choose to keep a fire extinguisher handy. I do. But would you select one that would likely handle fires in a very limited subset of circumstances, simply because the risk is unlikely to ever materialize?

No. No one would responsibly do so. One does not buy an extinguisher that may not function reliably just base fire are unlikely. Should a fire occur, one will want a very good one. That's obviously not a perfect analogy, but perhaps it will help get the point across.

Regarding your assertion that you are basing anything on "situations which have occurred", you have no idea at all what has occurred and what has not. No one does. There are only two small data sets containing any details of civilian defensive shootings, and only one can be verified by the public.

There are reasons why the data are not available, and I have explained them."

-Sure I will agree, all these factors are independent and should be analyzed independently as they are not dependent on the other. However, the chances of all of that happening can be combined to provide the odds of all that happening.

No offense, but please use a different analogy than the fire extinguisher.

So, by your assertion that I have no idea what has occurred due to small data sets, I am wrong in my statistics. Taking your claim that the basis of risk management is statistics, there is no way you can be correct either. The foundation of your risk management is null and void if my statistics cannot be used due to lack of data.



I can't see who wrote this but this is my response.

"A lot of folks seem adamantly opposed to carrying a spare magazine. The focus of the objection seems to be a spare mag is unnecessary. But, are there any good reasons not to carry a spare?

The reason I have not been carrying a spare mag is it is convenient not to do so. A more brutal way of phrasing my rationale is I am being slothful. Sloth and a minor convenience are not good reasons. In the recent failed self-defense trial in ME the fact that the shooter was carrying two spare mags was used against him as a sign of premeditation, which, despite sounding scary, is not a good reason, because carrying a gun even without reloads could also be deemed evidence of premeditation.

I endorse a person's choice to arm himself or not and to carry as much or as little ammo as he wants. Many good reasons have been offered for carrying reloads, but are there any good reasons (other than non-necessity) to carry no reloads?"

On the same note, is there really a good reason to carry reloads? If you're going to say that you'll never know you may never need it, we'll go down this slippery slope of needing a kevlar helmet and bulletproof vest again. Sure it's 1 or 2 reloads, but then again its just a helmet or bulletproof vest. They have some nice unnoticeable bulletproof vest nowadays too and comparing the cost of the vest vs your life, is really, priceless.

On the note of risk management, you might as well never leave your home to mitigate risks, its easy with the internet delivering goods and food to your home. (no offense oldman, I do appreciate your input).
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Old May 8, 2015, 02:54 PM   #131
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On the slippery slope, if you really do understand statistics and risk management, you would understand that you establish a reasonable cutoff or critical value for acceptable levels of risk.

The slippery slope is really a distribution of possible incidents and errors. Many experts have decided (you can denigrate experts) that looking at the continuum of possible problems, an extra mag is not so far out to be a silly action to take.

As far as sloth and not being able to do it with comfort, well - that's your choice and many have found they can.
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Old May 8, 2015, 03:06 PM   #132
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Uh. No it's not a slippery slope. A couple extra magazines are something that probably all semi-auto owners have. Nobody but you has suggested that sticking a couple mags in a pouch is going to lead to leaving the house in full battle gear to provide for every contingency. If you really believe that there is no reasonably possible situation that could occur that would necessitate carrying them then fine. I, and a lot of people who carry just can't see the resistance to a practice that takes zero effort to accomplish just in case. Like I said in a previous post, "I've gone nearly 59 years without needing a gun." It's easy to carry and it's fun to train. It's a hobby and a lifestyle. I hope no one here ever needs even a single round but even more than that I hope no one here needs an extra magazine and doesn't have it.
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Old May 8, 2015, 03:12 PM   #133
Moomooboo
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Glenn E. Meyer View Post
On the slippery slope, if you really do understand statistics and risk management, you would understand that you establish a reasonable cutoff or critical value for acceptable levels of risk.

The slippery slope is really a distribution of possible incidents and errors. Many experts have decided (you can denigrate experts) that looking at the continuum of possible problems, an extra mag is not so far out to be a silly action to take.

As far as sloth and not being able to do it with comfort, well - that's your choice and many have found they can.
Name those experts glenn. Please.

Also i have never denigrated any experts. Please use the proper word.

Last edited by Moomooboo; May 8, 2015 at 03:25 PM.
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Old May 8, 2015, 03:34 PM   #134
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Posted by Moomooboo:
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So, by your assertion that I have no idea what has occurred due to small data sets, I am wrong in my statistics. Taking your claim that the basis of risk management is statistics, there is no way you can be correct either. The foundation of your risk management is null and void if my statistics cannot be used due to lack of data.
You just do not understand.

You were claiming to base your assessment on cumulative probabilities that would combine the likelihood of a defensive shooting with the likelihood of a failure to function--both happening at the same time.

You do not have the data and neither do I, but if we had them, we would not use them. That would be the wrong way to go about it.

Read Post #54 again, as many times as it takes you to grasp the basic concept.

In its simplest form, here it is again: You first assess the risk of being attacked, and decide whether to mitigate it by carrying a weapon. Some people decide to do so, and many others decide otherwise.

Then, if you have decided to carry a firearm, you assess, separately, the risk that your firearm may fail.

There are plenty of ways of assessing that marginal probability--the risk that the firearm will fail when you need it most. You could ask some instructors, or devote some time observing some two-day training sessions, or better yet, you could enroll in one.

After making the assessment, you decide whether and how to mitigate that risk. We have discussed two ways.

Capisci?

Quote:
On the same note, is there really a good reason to carry reloads?
That has been the entire subject of this discussion.

Quote:
If you're going to say that you'll never know you may never need it, we'll go down this slippery slope of needing a kevlar helmet and bulletproof vest again. Sure it's 1 or 2 reloads, but then again its just a helmet or bulletproof vest. They have some nice unnoticeable bulletproof vest nowadays too and comparing the cost of the vest vs your life, is really, priceless.
You could go through that thought process if you wanted to, and make a decision or two. That would be up to you.

Here's the process:
  • Identify the risks
  • Assess the likelihood that each of the risks would occur, unmitigated
  • Assess the severity of the potential consequences of each of the risks
  • Consider potential risk mitgation techniques; look at cost and effectiveness; "cost" means more than dollars--weight, impact on mobility, comfort, convenience.....
  • DECIDE

No helmet or vest for me, thank you.

Quote:
On the note of risk management, you might as well never leave your home to mitigate risks, its easy with the internet delivering goods and food to your home.
That doesn't make sense to me, but one might prudently decide to not go out when people are coming home after people have been at Superbowl parties, or to not drive when the roads are icy.
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Old May 8, 2015, 03:55 PM   #135
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Posted by momooboo:
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Name those experts glenn. Please.
Oh for heaven sakes!

Well, should Glenn happen to believe that that inane request is worth the time of day, we'll see how his list compares with mine:
  • Massad Ayoob
  • Frank Ettin
  • Tom Givens (carries two)
  • JohnKSa
  • Kathy Jackson
  • Spats McGee
  • Glenn E. Meyer
  • Mike Seeklander
  • Rob Pincus, and all of his instructors
  • And most every other qualified defensive pistol instructor I can think of

Claude Werner recently opined that if he had to make a choice, he would rather carry a less lethal weapon than an extra magazine.

Whether you believe that you have denigrated any experts, I think that do you seem to do so.

And that is the proper word.
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Old May 8, 2015, 04:19 PM   #136
pax
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Add John Farnam, Gila Hayes, Lynn Givens, Marty Hayes and Jim Cirillo to that list. Although Jim was better known for suggesting an entire second gun, eg the "New York reload" which was named for him.

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Old May 9, 2015, 08:02 AM   #137
Moomooboo
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Ok Old Marksman. I have disparaged experts even though ive said that you can carry extra magazines even though i do not choose to. Seems you guys dont understand what denigrate means, just because i dont believe what you preach does not mean that ive belittled you.

As for these experts. They all fall under the same organizations. At the top is massad and then the armed citizens network. Your claim for them being experts is that theyve simply been shooting and getting trained for years.

Just because ive taken some car driving course and been driving courses, driving for 20 years and am a member of nascar federation does that make me an expert?

These people, some seem to have LEO Backgrounds which indirectly leads to some research. But these arent people who have been poring over cases to come to their conclusion.

Last edited by pax; May 9, 2015 at 08:23 AM. Reason: Removed gratuitous insult
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Old May 9, 2015, 08:17 AM   #138
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Posted by Moomooboo:
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As for these experts. They all fall under the same organizations. At the top is massad and then the armed citizens network.
Those sentences are contradictory.

Quote:
Your claim for them being experts is that theyve simply been shooting and getting trained for years.
I have claimed nothing of the kind.

Quote:
These people, some seem to have LEO Backgrounds which indirectly leads to some research.
Several of them were police officers at one time. Others have never been.

Quote:
But these arent people who have been poring over cases to come to their conclusion.
What is your basis for that assertion?

Are you suggesting that many, most, or all of the people whom pax and I have listed are not experts?

Are you intentionally trying to denigrate them?
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Old May 9, 2015, 08:27 AM   #139
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And....

This one is done.

Just a reminder: TFL's Forum Rules can be found here. They include the following:

Quote:
Originally Posted by TFL Forum Rules
3. No spamming, trolling, flaming, invective or other personal attacks, be they acrimonious or veiled in humor.
Deliberately twisting another member's name falls under that heading.

Closing the thread because it appears the meat of the discussion is over in any case.

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Old May 9, 2015, 12:54 PM   #140
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On the Subject of Experts

People can and should look into the backgrounds, qualifications, and reputations of "expets" and anyone else when considering their advice.

For the convenience of those who have followed this discussion, I'll list those of just an arbitrary few.

This what one finds on John Farnham's website:
Quote:
John Farnam, police officer and decorated veteran of the Vietnam War, is one of the top defensive firearms instructors in the nation. He has personally trained thousands of federal, state and local law enforcement agency personnel, many private security agencies, foreign governments, and hundred of civilians in safe gun handling and the tactical use of the defensive firearms. He has authored dozens of magazine articles, five books, written several handgun manuals, produced numerous training videos, and has written a model Use of Force Policy.
One of John's students is Kathy Jackson (pax, here):
Quote:
I’ve lost track of the number of hours I’ve spent in firearms classes from other excellent instructors. It’s well over 500 hours now, and includes courses from Jim Cirillo, Ken Hackathorn, Tom Givens, Massad Ayoob, and many others. I’ve also taken self-defense classes from Marc MacYoung, Rory Miller, Tony Blauer, and several other personal safety instructors. I hold firearm instructor certificates from Marty Hayes at FAS and from Tom Givens at Rangemaster in Tennessee. I’m also an adjust instructor for Massad Ayoob of the Massad Ayoob Group, being qualified to teach both halves of Ayoob’s MAG-40 classes.
Kathy mentions Tom Givens:
Quote:
Soon joined by his wife Lynn, the training duo formed Rangemaster Firearms Training Services to share their expertise with a much broader audience. They now travel across the country and around the world to arm responsible citizens with the skills and knowledge they need to effectively protect themselves and their families.
Tom has now been working in firearms instruction for nearly forty years. He has trained security officers; law enforcement officers at the local, state, and federal level; and foreign government agents. Just a few of his credentials are listed below.
Education, Training, and Experience:
  • Graduate, NRA Law Enforcement Firearms Instructor Development School, and Law Enforcement Tactical Shooting Instructor School, attended multiple times
  • Graduate, FBI Police Firearms Instructor School, FBI Certified Firearms Instructor
  • Graduate, (Expert Certificate) Gunsite Training Center API 499, Jeff Cooper
    Graduate, U.S. Army Instructor School
  • Graduate, Advanced Tactical Pistol, Tactical Explosives Entry School (TEES)
  • Graduate, Ken Hackathorn Advanced Handgun Course
  • Graduate, Chuck Taylor Advanced Handgun Course
  • Graduate, John Farnam DTI Advanced Handgun Course (Instructor Certified)
  • Graduate, CQB and Low Light Courses, Andy Stanford, OPS and Surefire Academy
  • Certified Handgun Instructor, Tennessee, Department of Safety and Department of Commerce
  • MS State Certified Instructor
  • Adjunct Firearms Instructor, Memphis Police Academy
  • Certified Expert Witness on Firearms and Police Firearms Training (state and federal court)
I have left out a lot about Tom, including championships, authorships and so forth, but it is relevant here that he has lectured and written about over sixty real defensive use of force encounters that his students experienced.

I have studied under Rob Pincus. A few highlights:
Quote:
From 2003 through 2007, Rob was the Director of The Valhalla Training Center in Montrose, Colorado. Rob developed the training doctrines and programs that brought Valhalla to the attention of the entire shooting industry as a leading source of reality based firearms training. During this time, Valhalla was identified by the Rand Corporation as a leader in private sector reality based training and as a sole source provider to 10th Group Army Special Forces for Extreme Close Quarters Counter Ambush training. Rob was awarded the Range of the Year award by the National Association of Shooting Ranges for 2007.

In Late 2007, Rob launched I.C.E. Training Company and began traveling and teaching around the country and the world. Rob is one of the busiest instructors in the industry, conducting well over 50 courses a year in over 40 locations. He travels over 300 days a year, bringing cutting edge personal defense information to students ranging from military and law enforcement special operations personnel to those who are just considering their first defensive firearm. In 2005, Rob began production of the Personal Defense Firearms DVD Series which evolved to include the Personal Defense Network online resource for training information. To date, the DVD series has shipped over 4 Million copies and consists of over 75 titles. There is no other series of defensive training video series that even comes close to this level of distribution. In addition to his print, video and in-person teaching, Rob has been involved in the production of several TV shows including Personal Defense TV, Best Defense, Stop The Threat, World News Tonight, The Daily Show, Best Defense: Survival, Weaponology, Trigger Time and dozens of local and regional news pieces covering training and firearms rights & responsibilities topics."

....

Recently, Rob has focused on program and instructor development. Instructors groups that have sought out Rob’s expertise and integrated components of his programs include the Chicago Police Department FTU, South Wales Police Department Training Unit (UK), NSW SEAL Qualification Training, Bavarian Polizie (DE), Orange County (FL) Sheriff’s Office and 19th Group Army Special Forces. Rob also conducts an annual conference for certified Combat Focus Shooting Instructors and is one of the founders of the Association of Defensive Shooting Instructors.
If you have watched The Best Defense, you have seen Mike Seeklander. If you have not , you should. Search and read about his impressive background.

Massad Ayoob should need no introduction. I have studied under Mas, too.

Understand that this is a business. Some people may try to pass themselves off as experts, but if they cannot deliver, they will not succeed.

Again, I have arbitrarily chosen just a few.
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