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November 28, 2012, 04:57 PM | #76 |
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And I thought chess was difficult ...
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November 28, 2012, 06:50 PM | #77 |
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Try 3D Chess....
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January 9, 2013, 01:38 AM | #78 |
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In a rather sudden turn of events (Lisa Madigan filed for rehearing in the Moore/sheppard cases in the 7th circuit today), it appears that Alan Gura is not willing to wait and is attempting to force the issue.
Today, the SAF filed a petition for cert to the SCOTUS. The Kachalsky case still had about 50 days left on the clock to file. We could get a ruling on Woollard in that time as well as theoretically, Moore could very well also be decided. Alan Gura is not waiting to see who else files first. He has taken the bull by the proverbial horns and s hoping for another case by the same Court that has ruled twice before in his favor (Heller and McDonald). Should the Court grant cert, every single 2A case will come to a screeching halt. Gene Hoffman, CalGuns Foundations is hosting the petition: http://www.hoffmang.com/firearms/kac...2013-01-08.pdf |
January 9, 2013, 03:38 AM | #79 |
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Is there any chance this will be heard in the spring, decided in the summer - of 2013?
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January 9, 2013, 09:12 AM | #80 |
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There is a good chance that cert may be granted before the summer recess. If so, don't expect orals until the 2013 session this fall. Any decision would be after that... June 2014.
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January 9, 2013, 11:20 AM | #81 |
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I posted this over in MDShooters.
A decision on the merits is not really possible this Term, even with the early filing. 30 days for NY to respond (they could seek an extension but let's assume that they won't). The court won't wait for a reply at the cert stage, so it goes to conference 2 or 3 weeks after the opp is filed, so let's assume opp is filed ~ 2/8/13. Earliest Friday Conference the petition could be considered is March 1 (slim chance for Feb. 22), and after that March 15. If cert is granted, 45 days to file opening brief (mid to late April), 30 days after that for the response (late May or early June). See Rule 25 SCT Rules. A reply is optional but must be filed not later than 2:00pm, a week before argument. The last argument day this Term is April 24. The only way this could be argued this Term is if the Court accelerated the schedule, which they will do but not really that often or to the extent you would need to do so here. That said, we likely will have a decision on whether to grant the petition this term. The likely conference for this petition is March 1, the last Friday conference this Term is June 20. The SG sat out McDonald and may sit out this case. Either way, the SG is very unlikely to intervene with an amicus brief at the cert stage unless the Court requests the views of the United States. I don't see the Court doing that here, as federal law and policy are not at issue. Even then, standard policy of the SG's office is that the SG will file its views in time for the cert petition to be decided this Term. So I am quite sure we will have a cert grant or denial this Term, probably in March. That leaves plenty of time for briefs to be filed for an argument in October or November. As to the 4th Circuit in Woollard, I tend to doubt that they will wait for the cert petition, but they would likely wait if the petition was granted, UNLESS they want to have their opinion considered by the SCT in deciding Kachalsky. They can do anything they want. Last edited by esqappellate; January 9, 2013 at 11:50 AM. |
January 9, 2013, 11:22 AM | #82 |
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Esqappellate? Are you following me, or am I following you?
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January 9, 2013, 11:48 AM | #83 |
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You're in the lead, Al and I like where you're going!
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January 9, 2013, 06:00 PM | #84 | ||||||
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Alan Gura offers the Court 2 questions. The first question is the most important one:
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Alan Gura starts right out of the gate, with: Quote:
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Additionally, I also like the ending: Quote:
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February 4, 2013, 02:56 PM | #85 | |
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From the docket at SCOTUS:
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Then we will wait to find out if cert is granted. According to the calendar, conference dates are: Mar. 29; Apr. 12, 19 and 26. I expect we will know the Monday following one of those days. |
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February 12, 2013, 07:28 PM | #86 | |
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Yesterday, 7 briefs were submitted as amicus curiae for support of certiorari for appllants. My thanks to the Firearms Policy Coalition for hosting these briefs.
While I haven't had time to read everything (yet), I will make note of the opening statement by Virginia: Quote:
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February 13, 2013, 01:41 AM | #87 |
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The virginia amicus brief is a long but elegantly written piece. Very nice job.
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February 13, 2013, 11:13 AM | #88 |
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I strongly suspect that when NYS files its response to the petition, we will see amici briefs from the two usual "friends:" The Brady Campaign and the LCPGV (LCAV).
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February 13, 2013, 02:12 PM | #89 | |
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Quote:
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February 13, 2013, 03:17 PM | #90 | |
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Quote:
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February 13, 2013, 03:55 PM | #91 |
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So this is designed to strike down all the May Issue laws to be replaced with Shall Issue, or Open Carry with May Issue?
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February 13, 2013, 04:26 PM | #92 |
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Well kinda.
Where we THINK the court is going to go is with a set of options for the states, backed first by the idea that there's a right to carry. There's a bunch of case law (mostly 19th Century but with some as late as 2003 such as the Ohio Supreme Court in Klein) that says concealed carry can be restricted or even eliminated so long as (loaded) open carry is legal. The US Supremes might back this view. We know that as actually happened in Ohio in 2004, we can "annoy our way" from there into a shall-issue concealed permit law we can live with. The court may also back a shall-issue concealed carry system as a more modern alternative, and as long as the costs are low and the equality high, we can cope with that. What I don't think we're challenging just yet is a situation such as Texas/FL where a fairly expensive ($200 or so with training) concealed permit is necessary to carry at all, and permitless open carry as a zero-cost alternative is banned. Kachalsky isn't the case that will challenge this. Kachalsky was designed to confirm that carry outside the home, IN SOME FORM, is a basic civil right. We know that states where permitless, zero-cost open carry and permitted concealed carry exist will be upheld as constitutional. There's a lot of these states. The only ones that might be constitutionally questioned are those where open carriers are extensively harassed, or that one bizarre state (can't remember if it's Mississippi or Missouri?) where the moment ANY part of a gun is covered by a holster it's considered concealed, per some really dumb court rulings. (Somebody is already making clear plastic holsters...)
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February 13, 2013, 05:26 PM | #93 |
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Guess I should be thankful I live in Shall Issue with legal open carry. Except in one town that just made the news for trying and failing to ban any carry in too many "sensitive areas" despite state preemption.
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February 14, 2013, 02:02 PM | #94 | |
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I think they'll take Kachalsky and perhaps even mag capacity and some other must-be-solved issues, but once those are done, I think they'll refuse to grant cert to pretty much everything, esp something that is so clearly a state-level issue. |
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February 15, 2013, 07:15 PM | #95 | |
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Kachalsky deals with just cause. Politics aside, theoretically Illinois could have passed carry legislation that would have addressed the complaints made by Moore/Shepard case, but Illinois could have instututed may issues / good cause. |
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February 15, 2013, 08:16 PM | #96 | ||
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What the CA2 did was to agree that there was a right to self defense outside the home, but that the right was far enough removed from the core of the right (They didn't say "in the home" but the implications were quite clear) that the State could regulate it however they desired (rational basis review, however the court chose to dress it up). Quote:
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February 22, 2013, 05:53 PM | #97 | ||
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February 24, 2013, 09:57 AM | #98 |
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The political reality is that there will never, ever, as long as the United States of America governs the country, be legal guns in the holsters, whether open or concealed, of citizens walking the streets of New York City.
New York City is "different," "special." It's the headquarters of the United Nations. It has the New York Stock Exchange, Broadway, Times Square, Central Park. It's one of America's two truly international cities. It should properly be considered as America's Hong Kong. Until SAF and Gura recognize this basic political reality and craft a means of allowing New York City, or just Manhattan Island, not to be governed by the same gun laws that bind the rest of the state, Gura's going to lose, and our rights are going to pay the price. In Kachalsky, at any level, the court will first look at the case and consider the outcome of granting Gura his desired remedy. If this remedy includes citizens carrying loaded firearms up Seventh Avenue, he's gone too far, and he's going to lose. If the case were filed blind, where no state names, city names, party names were present in the case, where the pleadings contained merely the text of the disputed law, argument and the remedy requested, he'd probably win the case in a walk. Sadly, cases are not decided in abstract detachment. The best hope for getting gun rights restored to the rest of New York is probably to have New York City severed from the United States as an international territory. The United States would retain protection duties of NYC under treaty, but its laws would not apply. Without the laws of the United States controlling NYC, the Second Amendment would not apply, and the citizens of Schenectady could have a good chance at getting their gun rights restored. Of course, this plan would really disrupt the balance of power in Albany, so it would likely never go anywhere, but I see it as the only means of getting good gun rights in that state. |
February 24, 2013, 10:30 AM | #99 | |
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The idea of severing NYC from the rest of the country is a bit silly.
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February 24, 2013, 10:50 AM | #100 | ||
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Quote:
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Last edited by smoking357; February 24, 2013 at 11:01 AM. |
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