Gun Market

[Gunplummer]

Take notice to the prices on the used guns in the last month or two? Levers and military stuff (Wood & steel) really took a jump. What is it? Tax return time? Maybe it is like the realty business. If you can't sell a house, raise the price. Too many amature "American pickers" trying to save a bad deal? I have seen movies and magazines raise gun prices, but sometimes I just can't figure it out.

[carguychris]

Originally Posted by Gunplummer

Levers and military stuff (Wood & steel) really took a jump. What is it? Tax return time?

Sounds like you answered your own question.

Actually, I think we're also seeing the combined effects of a huge collective post-election sigh of relief and a market-saturating glut of "tacticool" products. Since there will presumably be no AWB for the next 4 years, there's no compelling need to stock up on AR/AK stuff or fill the closet with 5.56 again; might as well relax and buy something pretty with a tubular magazine or a 6-shot cylinder.

[g.willikers]

Just a guess, but,
It might be due to what is similarly going on with the classic car and motorcycle market.
Nostalgia.
The modern world is getting way too complicated and unfathomable.
Lots of folks are thinking back to the good ole' days.

[KyJim]

The general firearm market is down since Trump was elected. https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...=.89792e445a6e. The story, being from the Washington Post, can't help from bashing Trump as part of the story. Yet, facts are facts and can't be ignored. In particular, NICS firearm checks are down.

[shootniron]

All I have to do to know the gun market is down, is to go in any of my local gun shops and ask...they ALL say that business is off, big time. They say that it has been that way since the election...all say their Christmas was WAY off, too.

[Gunplummer]

I have to agree with shootniron. I talked to Dealers BEFORE the election and they all said nothing was moving. Any sports shop in this area had cases and cases of 5.56 and 7.62 ammo on sale with no buyers. It just seems odd that with sales down, prices are up.

[Tony Z]

Let the prices drop until the goods start moving again! Doubt if any of us will complain.

[arquebus357]

I can't believe that the downturn in gun/ammo sales is some kind of mystery. We were stocking up for fear of what Hillary might do if elected. You do understand that the Constitution is just a list of fine suggestions. With Trump in the White house we are confident that he will not crap on the 2nd amendment. Hillary most certainly would have.

[peggysue]

Any thing AR-15 is going at bargain prices right now. Sure it will change after the over production is sold down. I Assembled #9 AR this month. I really do not need anymore variations.
The older wood and metal guns are out there on GB. They have gone up in price because surplus guns are no longer imported. No more Nagent pistols or for Mosin–Nagant rifles for $90.

[Machineguntony]

I took a 15 year break from the shooting sports to build my business, and I got back into it in 2012-13 or so. Back then, when I got back into shooting, it was definitely supply side. There were ammo shortages, AR shortages, powder shortages, and 22 was $100 a brick if you could even find it.

One of my assistants told me that 9mm was unavailable in the entire city, and lines would form when 22 arrived at Walmart. I couldn't believe it. So I went and looked and I remember seeing bare shelves at Cabelas. Then around noon, a large group of people started forming around the bare shelves. I asked someone what was happening, and they said that the clerks stocked the shelves with 9mm exactly at 12 every day. The clerk put out like a dozen boxes and there was a skirmish for the 9mm. I couldn't believe what I saw. I couldn't believe the state of the shooting sports, compared to what it was like in the 90s.

Crazy thing is that the boxes of 9mm were $18/50 rounds.

And the selling prices on semi auto ARs were stupid, if you could even find one.

So I don't feel bad for the current supply side (dealers, manufacturers, distributors, etc) of the business. Everything comes and goes, and supply side had their moment at the consumer sides' expense.

[jackstrawIII]

Everyone has spent the last 5 years buying ARs. Now, we all have enough ARs (well, non NY residents do anyways).

Since that market is saturated and the prices on "tactical" stuff is dropping dramatically, the rest of the market (more traditional firearms) is going to increase in price to match the interest.

Economics baby.

[Gunplummer]

I am going with Jackstraw III--Saturated market. The slump in blackgun and ammo sales started BEFORE the election

[Drachenstein]

It's a simple equation; they now have a surplus product, still priced as a scarcity. People have quit buying at those prices, as fear is no longer motivating a demand. Eventually retailers will have to drop their prices if they are to sell their product. All it takes is one retailer to blink and the prices will plummet. Ammo is dropping, firearms will soon follow. Guns no longer in production may not drop though, due to limited supply and import restrictions.


It pleases me to all ends that all those people who bought ammo or firearms in an effort to scalp (make a killing), are now stuck with their product. As retailers are now in stock and selling for much less than what the scalpers bought it for, find themselves in the position of sitting on it and hope for the worst, or taking it in the shorts and sell at a loss. I believe it's called ROTFLMAO ,,,,, yea, it's karma.

[FrankenMauser]

I'm sure there are many factors, but I agree with the theories about people turning their attention away from hoarding ARs and AKs.

Though minor, and a single data point, my LGS supports that. When I was in there last week, discussing a few things with them and having some FFL copies emailed, they (owner and his gunsmith) said they hadn't sold an AR since January, and the last AK sale had been about six weeks prior. However, they've had more sales and inquiries about lever actions and their small assortment of mil-surps than in the past few years.

Another thing they've seen, but I haven't seen people talking about across the country, is a huge spike in new shotgun sales. Plain-Jane Remington and Mossberg pumps, in particular, have made up about 50% of their firearm sales for the last few months. (Very unusual for this part of the country.)

And, again, I don't know how well it fits into the 'big picture', but they've also had a big spike in people bringing in "grandpa's old rifle" (usually an abused mil-surp) to see if it is shootable, get it fixed, and/or to see what it shoots.
I'm no gun shop lizard that hangs out all the time and sticks my nose into other peoples' business, but the LGS knows me just enough to know that I like the mil-surps, even if I don't own many; and that I know the cartridges better than the actual rifles. So, it's fun when they ask for my advice if I happen to be there for something. Lots and lots of Mauser 98s, Arisakas, and Berthier carbines coming out of closets around here; with a surprising (though still small) number of 1888 commission rifles...

Perhaps "grandpa's old rifle" is spurring interest in more mil-surps, for some of the shooters. ...Especially those that discover that they can't get ammo for what they already have.

[JoeSixpack]

I think other have already touched on it.

Trump is president and republicans controls congress.. not much chance of new control for foreseeable future.

the AK's and AR's are safe.. on top of that every one with a CNC machine is pumping out AR15's

The market is saturated and the demand has dropped.
That's good news since Im just starting to get into AR's

The ammo prices still need to come back down a bit.. walmart is still so damn high that there is NOTHING worth buying there anymore, and 22lr is outrageous still today (local or online).

I think we still have a little while before we hit rock bottom.

[carguychris]

Originally Posted by JoeSixpack

...walmart is still so damn high... 22lr is outrageous still today (local or online).

I think we still have a little while before we hit rock bottom.

While I agree with you about the rock-bottom point overall, I don't think .22LR prices will return to what we saw in the halcyon days of 2008, at least not for several years.

We've experienced almost 10 years of high demand and limited supply with only sporadic interruptions. While some of the high prices have undoubtedly been driven by hoarders, there are also many more "tacticool" replica .22LR firearms on the market, increasing the number of shooters who will burn through 500+ rounds in an afternoon. It's not just about small-game hunting and precision target practice anymore.

I seriously doubt that Federal 550rd bricks @ $8.88 will return to Walmart anytime soon.

[GCbroker]

I'm seeing a big uptick in the reloading business. Many of the dealers near me are now starting to stock up on presses, powder, ect... all that is needed to reload. Before now there were only two stores that stocked some reloading supplies.
Beyond the locals the on-line brass dealers are growing at a very fast pace.