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Old June 10, 2011, 04:49 AM   #1
MTT TL
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Now 70% of the guns used in crimes in Mexico come from the US

The harshly disputed claim that 90% of the guns in Mexico used in crimes come from the US has been replaced by the much more scientific 70%.



Whatever the truth may be I would point out that of those 70% thousands can likely be traced directly back to the ATF letting them across the border.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...=ITP_pageone_1

If you look at the chart you can see that they were either "manufactured in the US or imported in to the US". It does not say how many were "Sold in the US". I only point this out because they very well could have been given to the Mexican Government by the US government and then sold to drug dealers by government officials.

Quote:
The ATF figures show that 21,313 firearms recovered in Mexico in 2009 were submitted for tracing by the agency. Of these, 10,945 were manufactured in the U.S. and 3,268 were imported into the U.S. from third countries before ending up in Mexico. The origin of 7,100 firearms couldn't be determined.

Of 7,971 firearms recovered in Mexico in 2010 and traced by ATF, 4,186 were manufactured in the U.S. and 2,105 were imported into the U.S. The origin of 1,680 firearms couldn't be determined.

Collectively, the data show that of the 29,284 firearms recovered in Mexico in 2009 and 2010 and submitted to the ATF for tracing, 20,504 or 70% passed through the U.S. at some point. The period is the most recent for which data are available.

The ATF said it traced the guns based on information provided by Mexican authorities. The Mexican government doesn't submit every firearm it recovers for tracing.
Much more at Link
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Old June 10, 2011, 07:11 AM   #2
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We can rip this apart just on the basis of the snippet quoted:

Quote:
The ATF figures show that 21,313 firearms recovered in Mexico in 2009 were submitted for tracing by the agency. Of these, 10,945 were manufactured in the U.S. and 3,268 were imported into the U.S. from third countries before ending up in Mexico. The origin of 7,100 firearms couldn't be determined.
Taking it from the top (and remembering that not all crime guns were even submitted for trace, only the ones the Mexican authorities chose to submit), only half were manufactured in the U.S., and one-third could not be traced. My guess is that the Mexican authorities only submitted the ones they thought would support their bogus claim that the U.S. is the cource of all their gun problems, so these were likely cherry-picked guns, and one-third of THOSE could not be traced.

Quote:
Of 7,971 firearms recovered in Mexico in 2010 and traced by ATF, 4,186 were manufactured in the U.S. and 2,105 were imported into the U.S. The origin of 1,680 firearms couldn't be determined.
See above. The percentages changed a bit, but the idea is the same.

Quote:
Collectively, the data show that of the 29,284 firearms recovered in Mexico in 2009 and 2010 and submitted to the ATF for tracing, 20,504 or 70% passed through the U.S. at some point. The period is the most recent for which data are available.
How many "passed through" the U.S. and were last accounted for in a report of stolen firearms?

The collective data still show that a full 30 percent (okay, 29.9 percent) of the cherry-picked guns submitted STILL could not be traced.

Quote:
The ATF said it traced the guns based on information provided by Mexican authorities. The Mexican government doesn't submit every firearm it recovers for tracing.
And why is that, I wonder? Betcha they don't submit the ones they know were guns we sold to the Mexican army. That would be embarrassing.
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Old June 10, 2011, 07:25 AM   #3
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Where do you suppose most of the guns used in crimes in this country are from? Mexico?
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Old June 10, 2011, 08:52 AM   #4
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That is a good question. The most popular single gun in America is the Glock Pistol. Since handguns are used in the vast majority of crimes I would say that most likely most guns used in crimes in America are from Austria.

I am all on board a complete and total ban of all Glocks coming into the US. They should not be allowed for purchase by anyone including law enforcement. By their logic this should greatly reduce crime in both the US and Mexico.
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Old June 10, 2011, 09:30 AM   #5
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What is your source for information about Glocks? Are they the best selling or are they the most common? Either way, your logic is spot on. Might even help the balance of payments.
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Old June 10, 2011, 10:37 AM   #6
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We debunked these claims on another site recently. We are barely responsible for 10% of the guns in Mexico. We also are one of the only nations that have anyway at all to determine the origination of a gun. I think what we concluded was that this 70% number in reallity is just over 10% of the crime guns.
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Old June 10, 2011, 10:57 AM   #7
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The "logic" of gun-banners

MTT TL:
Quote:
That is a good question. The most popular single gun in America is the Glock Pistol. Since handguns are used in the vast majority of crimes I would say that most likely most guns used in crimes in America are from Austria.

I am all on board a complete and total ban of all Glocks coming into the US. They should not be allowed for purchase by anyone including law enforcement. By their logic this should greatly reduce crime in both the US and Mexico.
Hear, hear!

Using similar "logic", let's say that, statistically, the type of car most frequently involved in fatal crashes is a blue Chevy; just think how many lives would be saved if we would only ban blue Chevys!

Abusus non tollit usum.
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Old June 10, 2011, 01:05 PM   #8
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So, 70% of the guns that were recovered and submitted for tracing were either manufactured or imported into the U.S. How many guns were recovered but not submitted for tracing? How many guns were used in crimes but not recovered at all? A statistic can say anything you want it to depending on how it's presented and worded.

Honestly though, it doesn't really matter what percentage of Mexican crime guns come from the U.S. The Mexican police and military can get just as sophisticated arms and armor as what a cartel can smuggle out of the U.S., yet the cartels still seem to have the upper hand. It seems to me that a government buerachracy full of corrupt officials has more to do with Mexico's ills than guns from the U.S. do. Given the unchecked flow of illegal aliens and drugs that seems to be flowing out of Mexico, we don't seem to have nearly as much trouble maintaining law and order here. Perhaps Mexico should concentrate more on putting their own house in order and less on lecturing other nations.
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Old June 10, 2011, 01:25 PM   #9
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Anyone see the stuff on the ATF allowing guns into mexico no less?

The obama administration is trying to build this statistic...all I can see after reading about how we allowed guns to go into Mexico (and quite a few 50 BMG rifles went across the border?!)
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Old June 10, 2011, 01:28 PM   #10
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WebleyMkV beat me to the premise; but the real question isn't the U.S. origin; it is where did they come from in the U.S.?

Fox News recently reported that paid ATF informants were given fake IDs and access to buy M2HB Machineguns for Mexican cartels and that the MGs were subsequently "walked."

I'd be willing to bet that a substantial portion of the "U.S. origin" weapons are military stuff that has originated as United States government aid to Mexico, Guatemala, or other countries in the region. Cracking down on gun stores won't help you much if Uncle Sam is selling direct.
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Old June 10, 2011, 07:03 PM   #11
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I would say that 70% couldn't be verified because no one really knows how many firearms the Mexican Government has confiscated in total. Does anybody here believe that they would publish real numbers?
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Old June 10, 2011, 10:22 PM   #12
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Quote:
That is a good question. The most popular single gun in America is the Glock Pistol. Since handguns are used in the vast majority of crimes I would say that most likely most guns used in crimes in America are from Austria.
Here in gun-friendly Kentucky, all police confiscated firearms are sold by the state at auction. I've reviewed a number of lists of auctioned guns and, as expected, they are heavy in Lorcins, Jennings, Hi-Points, etc. Most of the cheap hoods out there use cheap guns. Not always true, of course.

If you're interested, here's a link to a recent list of auctioned guns: http://www.kentuckystatepolice.org/c...01_25_2011.pdf
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Old June 12, 2011, 11:56 PM   #13
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I was watching a Canadian or British news special about America's "obsession" with guns last year. They said that most of the guns that make it to Mexico come from just 20 or 30 gun stores, most on them being in the south.
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Old June 13, 2011, 12:41 AM   #14
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Quote:
Using similar "logic", let's say that, statistically, the type of car most frequently involved in fatal crashes is a blue Chevy; just think how many lives would be saved if we would only ban blue Chevys!
Amen to that!!! It might not stop fatal crashes, but it would stop a lot of rust!

Seriously, According to a recently retired Customs and Immigration agent friend of mine who was in and around Nogales, many of the so-called "U.S. originating" firearms included in the Mexican crime stats are, in fact, stolen M-16s that were taken by deserters from the Mexican Army who joined the various cartels. Yes, they are U.S. made, and yes, they are stolen. Let's just leave out "the rest of the story."
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Old June 13, 2011, 02:30 AM   #15
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Just ask them!
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Old June 13, 2011, 05:14 AM   #16
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I wonder how many American made firearms were M16's sold to the Mexican Army that "walked".
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Old June 13, 2011, 05:46 AM   #17
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If it's really a problem, they should gather all the US sourced guns and send them back to us. I'm sure someone here could find a good home for them.
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Old June 13, 2011, 08:23 AM   #18
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Wikileaks recently released documents which show that the overwhelming majority of the drug cartels' guns were stolen from government arsenals throughout Latin America -

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...#ixzz1Nx0p7gq1

The last I heard, the Mexican gov't was only submitting a small fraction (maybe 20% ?) of the "crime scene" guns for BATF traces because all the other guns were obviously not of civilian origin.

As the Wikileaks documents demonstrate, U.S. officials are well aware that guns smuggled into Mexico from the U.S. do not make up 70% of the cartels' arsenals.
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Old June 15, 2011, 04:05 PM   #19
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Quote:
Here in gun-friendly Kentucky, all police confiscated firearms are sold by the state at auction. I've reviewed a number of lists of auctioned guns and, as expected, they are heavy in Lorcins, Jennings, Hi-Points, etc. Most of the cheap hoods out there use cheap guns. Not always true, of course.

If you're interested, here's a link to a recent list of auctioned guns: http://www.kentuckystatepolice.org/c...01_25_2011.pdf
We are gun friendly except for some stupid reason we destroy the guns instead of reselling them. We just brow beat our citizens with traffic tickets to generate money.

As far as the brand of guns confiscated and resold goes. I am sure if their were any big brand name guns confiscated from the hoods they would be returned to their rightful owners which they were stolen from.
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