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Old June 27, 2018, 01:42 PM   #1
motorhead0922
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Justice Anthony Kennedy is retiring-Kavanaugh Nominated

He will retire at the end of July:
https://apnews.com/43de809e3c144a1f9048055386394263

Several people have supposed that the high court has not taken some of the 2A cases because there has not been a "solid" pro-2A majority. Maybe we'll find out if that's true.
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Old June 27, 2018, 01:45 PM   #2
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Thats twice now I've been happy Trump won the election. We would have been up the creek without a paddle. He needs to get on it right away.
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Old June 27, 2018, 01:57 PM   #3
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It's going to get serious. There will be crushing pressure on Senators.

IIRC, the nuclear option was used for Gorsuch....does it remain in effect? Can the Republicans get Trump's pick onto SCOTUS with just a simple majority?
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Old June 27, 2018, 02:11 PM   #4
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Can the Republicans get Trump's pick onto SCOTUS with just a simple majority?
Yes, they can. The no-filibuster rule is permanent.
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Old June 27, 2018, 02:33 PM   #5
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Anyone think a certain bitter, Trump hating senator might screw this up?
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Old June 27, 2018, 02:33 PM   #6
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I've always thought that he was the primary reason for the cautionary language in Heller and it is likely that his unwillingness to go further than Heller and McDonald was the reason the Court has not granted cert. on several recent seemingly obvious 2nd Amendment infringement cases. It will be interesting to see what happens the next time an "assault weapon" ban or "cause for issue" case works it's way up to the Court.
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Old June 27, 2018, 02:55 PM   #7
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Now we just need a few more of the liberal justices to retire or expire so we can stack the deck further.
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Old June 27, 2018, 03:03 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gary L. Griffiths
I've always thought that he was the primary reason for the cautionary language in Heller and it is likely that his unwillingness to go further than Heller and McDonald was the reason the Court has not granted cert. on several recent seemingly obvious 2nd Amendment infringement cases.
May I ask your reasons for thinking this? I've never seen anything attributing that language to Kennedy, but a number of people seem to feel as you do, and I'm wondering how you came to feel that way.
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Old June 27, 2018, 03:07 PM   #9
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Now we just need a few more of the liberal justices to retire or expire so we can stack the deck further.
That mechanism works both ways. Thomas is old and carries too much weight. Breyer is old, but seems to be going strong. Kagan and Sotomayor are relatively young.
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Old June 27, 2018, 03:29 PM   #10
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*smiles*
As I've said before... patience.
Zukiphile is right though, it does work both ways, even still... patience.
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Old June 27, 2018, 03:41 PM   #11
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I wouldn't count my eggs before they're cracked.

"Stacking the deck" hasn't worked out so well, more than once in just the last few decades, even when the sitting POTUS is.... intellectually inclined... and his choice was confirmed. Frankly, I don't trust Trump to make an acceptable (by my definition) choice, nor do I trust that the choice will turn out to BE acceptable, even if I thought he would and they "appeared" to be. Wolf in sheeps clothing, chameleons and all that.

However, it simply can't be worse than the alternative would have been... I think.
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Old June 27, 2018, 04:34 PM   #12
Glenn E. Meyer
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For my focus, I would want a Justice who is proactive and strong for gun rights. The current Alito, Roberts pairing are not. Kennedy was not strong.

Other political causes and undoing this or that social issue - I'm opposed or of secondary interest. If that is the focus of GOP nominations, I would be very disappointed.

Eliminating the threat to impose NY, CA, etc. weapons ban, eliminating bans of concealed carry and making it clear states have to issue quickly and cheaply - these are things that should be taken up. However, I think Alito and Roberts aren't so inclined.
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Old June 27, 2018, 05:01 PM   #13
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Ginsburg is 85 this year.
Breyer is 80 this year.
Both are Clinton appointments.

I have my conspiracy theories about why Kennedy would retire. I was under the assumption that most justices held onto the position as long as they were mentally able and had the physical capacity to make it to work everyday. Rehnquist in '05 dying of cancer while still sitting was suprising.

Still, the odds of retirement go up for both RBG and Breyer every month... the odds of either of them lasting through Trumps second term are very slim... RBG would be 91, and while she's beaten cancer twice, it's a helluva job to have.

I'm about 90/10 that we've got a 7:2 right-wing majority come 2024... which would be pretty huge for gun-rights for a few decades.

In any case, I'm sure we'll start hearing from certain news agencies (the same ones that want to eliminate the electoral college) that SC appointments shouldn't be for life, and blah blah blah...
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Old June 27, 2018, 05:07 PM   #14
Glenn E. Meyer
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We really don't care in this discussion if we have a right wing or left wing majority. We care about the gun rights implications. Wandering from that and we close this one.
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Old June 27, 2018, 05:26 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Glenn E Meyer
Eliminating the threat to impose NY, CA, etc. weapons ban, eliminating bans of concealed carry and making it clear states have to issue quickly and cheaply - these are things that should be taken up. However, I think Alito and Roberts aren't so inclined.
Glenn, are you allowed to share why you think Alito & Roberts would not be inclined to take up those issues?

And to clarify, do you mean they would vote against granting cert for such cases?
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Old June 27, 2018, 05:39 PM   #16
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There’s already talk of delay of confirmation until after the midterms.
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Old June 27, 2018, 05:46 PM   #17
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they must be solid pro 2nd Amendment as an individual right. if so all else would seem to follow reasonably.....
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Old June 27, 2018, 05:47 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gary L. Griffiths
I've always thought that he was the primary reason for the cautionary language in Heller and it is likely that his unwillingness to go further than Heller and McDonald was the reason the Court has not granted cert. on several recent seemingly obvious 2nd Amendment infringement cases. It will be interesting to see what happens the next time an "assault weapon" ban or "cause for issue" case works it's way up to the Court.
I agree on both points.

As to watching future cases -- Trump's next nomination is going to be crucial, and it's going to be important for those of us who have Republican senators (which doesn't include me) to keep the pressure on them to approve a conservative, originalist, strict constructionist nominee. None of that "resist," or "He's not MY president" crap.
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Old June 27, 2018, 05:53 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vicGT
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gary L. Griffiths
I've always thought that he was the primary reason for the cautionary language in Heller and it is likely that his unwillingness to go further than Heller and McDonald was the reason the Court has not granted cert. on several recent seemingly obvious 2nd Amendment infringement cases.
May I ask your reasons for thinking this? I've never seen anything attributing that language to Kennedy, but a number of people seem to feel as you do, and I'm wondering how you came to feel that way.
The language didn't come from Kennedy, it came from Scalia. But Scalia couldn't go farther than he did in Heller without seeing Kennedy jump ship and vote against the conservative side.
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Old June 27, 2018, 05:53 PM   #20
Glenn E. Meyer
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SCOTUS turned cases and 4 justices are needed for Cert. Thus with two clearly progun justices - Scalia and Gorsuch, I think it is clear.

https://www.google.com/search?q=gun+...nt=firefox-b-1
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Old June 27, 2018, 06:13 PM   #21
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Thomas is old and carries too much weight.
I like him. He is smart, consistent and loyal. He is only 70. If Trump gets a second term it might a good time to step down, if not he can hang on for at least eleven years easily.
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Old June 27, 2018, 06:25 PM   #22
Bartholomew Roberts
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I find Thomas to be the most intellectually consistent of the justices. I also think he is definitely the most pro-Second.

One thing is for sure, Kennedy’s replacement should help clarify what some of the remaining Heller majority justices are thinking on these cert denials of solid 2A cases.
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Old June 27, 2018, 06:35 PM   #23
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I could really get behind a Ted Cruz nomination. I don't think it will ever happen though.
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Old June 27, 2018, 06:36 PM   #24
Glenn E. Meyer
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That's true. If Alito and Roberts were not trusting Kennedy, their denial made sense.

If it happens with 3 progun justices, then we know for sure.
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Old June 27, 2018, 08:38 PM   #25
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Originally Posted by rickyrick View Post
There’s already talk of delay of confirmation until after the midterms.
Is any of that talk coming from members of the majority party in the Senate?
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