1873 winchester lever action .44-.40

javabum · July 6, 2009, 02:12 AM

i found this site surfing the web and some one was wondering about a non sellers apprasil for a similar rifle if i read it correctly....well
i have 1 in 95% condition and it appraised for $2,400.00 to $2,6oo.00 and was told in an economy such as the one we have now it would increase 8 to 12 % a year and in a thriving economy up to as much as 16% a year.(not sure if he was shooting me straight) but thats the range i was given.

BobbyT · July 6, 2009, 05:05 AM

I can't speak to your specific rifle, but that's an awfully specific appraisal. Values for sentimental, rare things don't tend to work that way.

Say your rifle was worth 2500 a year or so ago. Right now you might be able to get that from someone looking for one, but you might take a hit if you had to sell it now, because there are fewer buyers. In a year or two, you'd find it easier to sell for what it was worth a year ago.

As time goes by and the numbers dwindle, you'll see the value work its way up, but remember its value is what another person is willing to pay, and no human being is going to say "Hm let's take 16% appreciation across 4.5 years, carry the 1..." etc.

He's going to say "I still see these at shows for 2500 so that's all I'm willing to offer", or he's going to say "I've always wanted one of these since I first shot my grandfather's, and the last time I saw one was 5 years ago so yeah 3000 sounds fair".

csmsss · July 6, 2009, 08:31 AM

No one on earth can tell you how much the value of a firearm will change over time. Just not possible. As noted, the value of a firearm (same for any commodity) is determined by what someone else is willing to pay for it at the moment you are attempting to sell it.

javabum · July 6, 2009, 01:15 PM

although you are both right....this rifle has been in the family for as long as i can remember and to sell it would be a travesty.
i would never think of selling it.i was just giving out some info i got from a gun dealer....
all things rather it be a rifle,bail of hay or a boat,is only worth what someone is willing to pay and what the person selling is will to settle for.
anyways thanks for the info....always nice to see and have input.

javabum (Kevin)

James K · July 6, 2009, 09:19 PM

Saying "1873 Winchester" is meaningless in terms of even guessing a value. I have seen them go for under $100 as a rusted relic to upwards of $20,000, depending on the exact model and condition.

Bobby T makes some good points; there is no way anyone can tell you what that gun will be worth next year. Sure, the price on top condition collectibles will generally trend upward, but that "12% a year" sounds more like someone touting the rifle as an investment than a disinterested appraiser.

Also, be aware of the "retail price" trap. The price given in the Blue Book, and other books, as well as the price/value given here and by most appraisers, is almost always, unless noted otherwise, a retail price, or what a reasonable buyer will pay for it. But gun dealers like to eat, and antique gun dealers seem to like to eat well (yes, I know several). They continue to eat because they don't pay retail for their guns. So if you sell to another collector directly, you might get close to the retail price; if you sell to a dealer, you will be lucky to get 75%.

Jim

July 6, 2009, 02:12 AM	#1
javabum Senior Member Join Date: July 6, 2009 Location: Californication Posts: 264	1873 winchester lever action .44-.40 i found this site surfing the web and some one was wondering about a non sellers apprasil for a similar rifle if i read it correctly....well i have 1 in 95% condition and it appraised for $2,400.00 to $2,6oo.00 and was told in an economy such as the one we have now it would increase 8 to 12 % a year and in a thriving economy up to as much as 16% a year.(not sure if he was shooting me straight) but thats the range i was given.

July 6, 2009, 05:05 AM	#2
BobbyT Senior Member Join Date: May 3, 2009 Posts: 266	I can't speak to your specific rifle, but that's an awfully specific appraisal. Values for sentimental, rare things don't tend to work that way. Say your rifle was worth 2500 a year or so ago. Right now you might be able to get that from someone looking for one, but you might take a hit if you had to sell it now, because there are fewer buyers. In a year or two, you'd find it easier to sell for what it was worth a year ago. As time goes by and the numbers dwindle, you'll see the value work its way up, but remember its value is what another person is willing to pay, and no human being is going to say "Hm let's take 16% appreciation across 4.5 years, carry the 1..." etc. He's going to say "I still see these at shows for 2500 so that's all I'm willing to offer", or he's going to say "I've always wanted one of these since I first shot my grandfather's, and the last time I saw one was 5 years ago so yeah 3000 sounds fair".

July 6, 2009, 08:31 AM	#3
csmsss Senior Member Join Date: October 24, 2008 Location: Orange, TX Posts: 3,078	No one on earth can tell you how much the value of a firearm will change over time. Just not possible. As noted, the value of a firearm (same for any commodity) is determined by what someone else is willing to pay for it at the moment you are attempting to sell it.

July 6, 2009, 01:15 PM	#4
javabum Senior Member Join Date: July 6, 2009 Location: Californication Posts: 264	although you are both right....this rifle has been in the family for as long as i can remember and to sell it would be a travesty. i would never think of selling it.i was just giving out some info i got from a gun dealer.... all things rather it be a rifle,bail of hay or a boat,is only worth what someone is willing to pay and what the person selling is will to settle for. anyways thanks for the info....always nice to see and have input. javabum (Kevin)

July 6, 2009, 09:19 PM	#5
James K Member In Memoriam Join Date: March 17, 1999 Posts: 24,383	Saying "1873 Winchester" is meaningless in terms of even guessing a value. I have seen them go for under $100 as a rusted relic to upwards of $20,000, depending on the exact model and condition. Bobby T makes some good points; there is no way anyone can tell you what that gun will be worth next year. Sure, the price on top condition collectibles will generally trend upward, but that "12% a year" sounds more like someone touting the rifle as an investment than a disinterested appraiser. Also, be aware of the "retail price" trap. The price given in the Blue Book, and other books, as well as the price/value given here and by most appraisers, is almost always, unless noted otherwise, a retail price, or what a reasonable buyer will pay for it. But gun dealers like to eat, and antique gun dealers seem to like to eat well (yes, I know several). They continue to eat because they don't pay retail for their guns. So if you sell to another collector directly, you might get close to the retail price; if you sell to a dealer, you will be lucky to get 75%. Jim