Looking for good arguments for a pro-gun society... difficult

[zukiphile]

zukiphile: Herd immunity perhaps? The closer the carry rate gets to 100% the less likely that anyone gets robbed.

It sounds good but lets say instead of a gun you are carrying a lump of metal that has several hundred dollars in value and is easily converted into cash.
What is the risk reward for the scenario?

If the lump isn't a weapon, I would think the target would become more attractive. The effect would be something like just stepping away from an ATM.

If the lump is a weapon, we might get some insight into how enticing the prospect of stealing someone's weapon will be by examining the rate at which open carriers have their weapons stolen off their person. I haven't any stats on it, but pistols being taken by force from mall cops, armoured car staff and LEOs for later sale doesn't seem to an occurrence I can recall. I'm sure it has happened.

If someone wanted $100, there seem to be easier and safer ways to get it that to confront an armed person. Almost any other transaction seems safer. People do steal police cars, but that is generally when there isn't a PO in it.

If criminals are rational actors when it comes to avoiding armed confrontations, would they not also be equally rational when it comes to getting a greater reward? would they be more likely to avoid or develop tactics to lessen the risk of getting that valuable lump of metal?

Yes. Robbing a gun store might involve less risk.

A rational actor looking for value won't restrict the scope of his search to firearms being carried. Parked cars have historically been low hanging fruit. Unoccupied homes offer a lot of opportunity.

The rational avoidance of lethal risk may explain the frequency of sales scams. If you can get value from people with a lie rather than a physical confrontation you may lose, why risk the confrontation? It's a potentially career ending variable.

[Buzzcook]

zukiphile: I did a quick google and couldn't find stats on gun thefts from concealed carriers, or police. There are of course lots of articles on gun theft and it seems that many of the gun stolen are taken from cars.

Before I go on I should say I don't think we will find many rational actors among the criminals that are will to confront possible armed citizens.
Mainly because it is easier and safer to earn one hundred dollars working ~10 hours at a fast food restaurant.

But even if we were to look for stats, our first road block would be the gun owners. According to this article gun thefts from private individuals are under reported.
https://www.americanprogress.org/iss...-guns-america/

Individual gun owners are also targets for thieves. It is difficult to ascertain the exact number of guns that are stolen from individuals in the United States because many of these thefts are not reported to law enforcement. However, estimates from a number of survey studies indicate that roughly 200,000 to 400,000 guns are stolen from individuals each year.

[Spats McGee]

Originally Posted by Buzzcook

zukiphile: . . . .Before I go on I should say I don't think we will find many rational actors among the criminals that are will to confront possible armed citizens.
Mainly because it is easier and safer to earn one hundred dollars working ~10 hours at a fast food restaurant. . . . .

I'm not sure what line if work you're in Buzzcook, but I'll say this: Working fast food may be safer, but you'd be surprised at how fast a lot of the defendants on my docket make bail.

Originally Posted by Buzzcook

. . . .But even if we were to look for stats, our first road block would be the gun owners. According to this article gun thefts from private individuals are under reported.
https://www.americanprogress.org/iss...-guns-america/

I don't know anything about americanprogress.org, but I took a look at a few of their articles. I'd be pretty cautious about citing them as a source. They have an entire section on "Gun Violence," and do not seem hesitant to use the Violence Policy Center, The Trace, or Everytown for Gun Safety as sources.

[zukiphile]

Originally Posted by Buzzcook

zukiphile: I did a quick google and couldn't find stats on gun thefts from concealed carriers, or police. There are of course lots of articles on gun theft and it seems that many of the gun stolen are taken from cars.

I wouldn't be surprised. There's a reason so many parking garages warn customers not to leave valuable in their cars.

Originally Posted by Buzzcook

Before I go on I should say I don't think we will find many rational actors among the criminals that are will to confront possible armed citizens.

I agree, and would add that even people who do bad or foolish things can operate rationally. Recreational arson isn't itself rational, but one could pursue the end in a rational manner. Theft, mugging, robbery etc can be pursued in a manner that is calculated in optimize return and minimize risk.

Rational actor analysis will run into limits. The fellow who beats to death the man he finds in bed with his wife is unlikely to be dissuaded by making homocide illegal, but for most transactions we can at least imagine why people pursue ends we want to prohibit and state appropriate disincentives.

Originally Posted by Buzzcook

But even if we were to look for stats, our first road block would be the gun owners. According to this article gun thefts from private individuals are under reported.
https://www.americanprogress.org/iss...-guns-america/

I am somewhat familiar with the source. It's an advocacy source. That doesn't mean it's information is wrong, but it does press a view.

I've little doubt that theft of many kinds aren't reported at 100% of their rate of occurrence. However that isn't an obstacle to opining reasonably on the social effects of concealed carry of arms in the general population.

Originally Posted by Buzzcook citing American Progress

Individual gun owners are also targets for thieves. It is difficult to ascertain the exact number of guns that are stolen from individuals in the United States because many of these thefts are not reported to law enforcement. However, estimates from a number of survey studies indicate that roughly 200,000 to 400,000 guns are stolen from individuals each year.

Note that this figure is an estimates of thievery in total from homes and cars as well, not taken off the person of a concealed carrier. Footnote 17 seems intentionally ambigious in that it cites to several different article for the same proposition, yet neither source actually supports the idea that it is the owners themselves who are targeted for theft. Instead they suggest that unsecured arms in cars and homes are the targets of theft.

When we are examining personal carry, that seems an important difference.

[Brit]

I worked as a Doorman (Bouncer) in Liverpool for 5 years. Four of them at the Cavern, of Beatles fame, from 1960 till 1964, and a year at the Blue Angel, a nightclub on Seal St.

Was stabbed twice at the Cavern (The Club was full of young girls!) was in lots of fights, we would start most of them, you tend to win the ones you do not wait to get hit before you get involved.

Lived in Toronto Canada for 32 years. Got involved with one fight (if you could call it that) a Large Irish man, wanted to dance with my Girlfriend, a very lovely Trinidadian. It was noisy, loud music.

The second time he approached our table, he had a bottle of beer in his right hand. So I could hear him better, I presume, he leaned his weight on the bottle, on the table and leaned over starting to speak.

I cupped the bottle, and pulled it towards me, he fell forward, my sharp quick headbutt (Liverpool kiss) sat him down on the floor.

Two of the bouncers, dragged him off, down the stairs. Came back to tell me he had caused trouble in there before.

I have a very good looking Wife, who some well dressed young man, who had just stepped into the elevator, in which only my Wife and I were the sole occupants of, stated he wanted a hug? She was at the buttons, I was standing back. He was in front of me, holding a Martini Glass, with a wee umbrella in it, half full. Or half empty?

Not sure if anyone here has seen the result of a glass in the face? I was born in a pub, I have.
When he lifted his foot, the left one, to go a hugging, I stepped under his left arm, and drove him into the wooden bar, on the back wall of the elevator.

When he opened his eyes, they were scrunched uptight! I informed him to keep away from my Wife. Must have hurt.

We left. I was carrying a Glock 19, and a Benchmade folder. Never thought of weapons, not required. We were attending a Firearms forum.

This was in Sept. 2004, Dayton Ohio.

Have not hit anyone since moving to Florida, in 13 years, carry a gun every day, have not shot anyone either, but there are many unsavoury people out there, I must say I have only met pleasant and polite ones in those 13 years.
Having the means of self-defence is a good thing. Having the skill to use it, that's good as well.