The Firing Line Forums

Go Back   The Firing Line Forums > Hogan's Alley > Tactics and Training

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old January 19, 2018, 04:12 PM   #1
JJ45
Senior Member
 
Join Date: June 8, 2015
Posts: 643
Self Defense Confrontation

Sorry if this has already been asked.

Are there any stats on the average DISTANCE and NUMBER OF SHOTS fired in a self defense confrontation? I don't know who or how anyone could compile this data but was curious.

This would seem to have an influence on what to CCW....Thanks, JJ
JJ45 is offline  
Old January 19, 2018, 05:07 PM   #2
TailGator
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 8, 2009
Location: Florida
Posts: 3,656
It gets beat around all the time. The problem is, by definition of average, if you prepare for the average then very nearly half the encounters are beyond your preparation. I'll let others start throwing the numbers around.
TailGator is offline  
Old January 19, 2018, 05:21 PM   #3
OldMarksman
Staff
 
Join Date: June 8, 2008
Posts: 3,905
Quote:
Are there any stats on the average DISTANCE and NUMBER OF SHOTS fired in a self defense confrontation?
Statistics are routinely compiled for police shootings. Contrary to some popular beliefs, those do, or the most part, involve self defense or the defense of others, as do lawful civilian uses of force.

But the circumstances do not really compare. Civilians do not make traffic stops or enter homes to respond to domestic violence calls or respond to robbery calls. And police officers are not expected to avoid trouble.

There are some rather small data sets relating to civilian shootings. The shootings by Rangemaster training graduates are the best known. I remember seeing reports from another source in Tennessee, also.


Quote:
This would seem to have an influence on what to CCW....
It may so seem, but they would not be helpful.

First, averages are rather useless for decision-making, except for such things as pricing insurance policies.

Second, there are far too many variables. Too many unknowns and too few equations, as it were.
OldMarksman is offline  
Old January 19, 2018, 06:38 PM   #4
JJ45
Senior Member
 
Join Date: June 8, 2015
Posts: 643
So it is then...I suspect try to envision all the eventualities and prepare for the worst.
JJ45 is offline  
Old January 19, 2018, 06:45 PM   #5
Schlitz 45
Senior Member
 
Join Date: January 14, 2018
Location: Colorado
Posts: 131
I googled your question and found this
http://gunssavelives.net/self-defens...h-data-tables/
Average number of shots in self defense=2 Average distance= arms length
Schlitz 45 is offline  
Old January 19, 2018, 07:10 PM   #6
briandg
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 4, 2010
Posts: 5,455
Old marksman is right, average is kind of a mind killer. We read average, and assume that the fifteen foot average will be what presents itself, and we will train at fifteen foot ranges, and expect that whatever happens to us will wind up being fifteen feet or less.

An average, whether mean, mode, median, all three are different, is compiled with numerous bits of data. the handful of fifty yard shootings that actually occur balance the numerous sd shootings that take place at ten feet or less.

While most people never face a fifty foot shooting situation, it happens all of the time.

Here's a thought. Do you think that a police officer is special, so special that he will always have different situations from the public? No, they will have situations at all sorts of ranges. A few years ago, here, a guy was dating an ex wife, the ex husband came to the theater and shot him down from a relatively long distance. Our police had a running gun fight that covered about eight blocks, at distances that reached about forty yards or so.

Police train at various distances, but I believe that the default qualification starts at fifty feet.

Your training should start at a distance that will cover a larger range of situations, I'd suggest starting at fifty.
__________________
None.
briandg is offline  
Old January 19, 2018, 09:41 PM   #7
Lohman446
Senior Member
 
Join Date: April 22, 2016
Posts: 2,112
Average is a statistical mind field. Without knowing standard deviation you really don’t have a good idea of what average really represents.

To me the question is one of comfort. If you are not going to go with a belt gun and limit yourself to pocket carry your options are limited. Once you are to a belt capacity becomes easier
Lohman446 is offline  
Old January 20, 2018, 05:58 AM   #8
JJ45
Senior Member
 
Join Date: June 8, 2015
Posts: 643
Schlitz 45 made it simpler, that's what I thought...2 shots, arms length.... if it's at a distance I've already made the decision to run or hide.

Avoidance of having to draw my handgun at all cost comes first but it appears that accuracy and capacity are less of a factor in a handgun for carry.
JJ45 is offline  
Old January 20, 2018, 09:07 AM   #9
Schlitz 45
Senior Member
 
Join Date: January 14, 2018
Location: Colorado
Posts: 131
I agree averages could be misleading but the conclusions given in the link I posted are hard to argue with:
1 Be aware
2 Be willing to fight
3 Have a weapon available
4 Be familiar enough with your weapon to employ it without fumbling
5 Communicate to the attacker that resistance will be given and...
6 If attacker doesn’t withdraw counterattack without hesitation

Last edited by Schlitz 45; January 20, 2018 at 09:24 AM.
Schlitz 45 is offline  
Old January 20, 2018, 10:43 AM   #10
Lohman446
Senior Member
 
Join Date: April 22, 2016
Posts: 2,112
Quote:
So it is then...I suspect try to envision all the eventualities and prepare for the worst.
I have failed to articulate this point so many times I am either going to have to abandon it entirely as an invalid argument beyond my inability to articulate it or simply give up on the argument. Regardless let's try again.

You cannot be prepared for the absolute worst case scenario. Recently around here a jogger, on a reasonably well traveled road in a "safe" area, was shot and killed by an individual in a passing car seemingly without warning. While one must be vigilant and aware of his or her surroundings this type of random non-targeted violence can sometimes be done in a manner which one cannot reasonably defend against unless living as a hermit appeals. Likewise if for some reason a dozen "delta force level" individuals in body armor and with long guns decide they are going to take you out and decide to lay in ambush for you it is unlikely you are going to overcome them.

What is the worst case scenario that you are able to envision as possible and envision yourself as being able to overcome? Prepare for that.

Your ability to overcome a situation is likely limited by your training - though it should be noted there have been surprising results from seemingly untrained individuals. Your training is limited by both time and money.

It is further limited by your equipment. While a highly trained individual will likely do better with limited equipment than a novice there is a point in which equipment will limit you. Your equipment is limited by comfort and mode of carry. We are not, for the most part, wondering around with battle rifles and other long guns in body armor. Some find that belt carry is simply to limiting to them for social and practical reasons and opt for pocket carry. This places a distinct limit on equipment. Others feel that carrying a belt gun is the limit of reason and chose not to carry a spare magazine. Those that carry spare magazines stop often at one or two.

I would argue don't over equip your training by some ridiculous degree. With that said it would suck to run out of equipment before you ran out of ability.

Personally my "worst case" scenario, in my mind, involves human trafficking and an attempt to snag one of my children. I don't worry about myself when I'm out jogging. I prepare for the (likely overblown) reports involving a group of potential abductors (about 3-4) and am confident in my ability to fend off such an attack. I do train for slightly different scenarios but this is the one that I feel I MUST overcome if it occurs and it occupies more of my thoughts than it should.

Your own worst case scenario that you feel you have a reasonable chance of overcoming will be different. Train for it and slightly different scenarios and you are likely doing what you can with the limited time any of us have.
Lohman446 is offline  
Old January 20, 2018, 12:06 PM   #11
nanney1
Senior Member
 
Join Date: November 24, 2017
Posts: 225
Lohman446: when jogging, do you carry? I have a fanny pack that would work ok for jogging or cycling, I just haven't tried it yet.

It's inconvenient, I would need to include my ID and permit, and in a SD situation, it would be very slow.
nanney1 is offline  
Old January 20, 2018, 12:34 PM   #12
briandg
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 4, 2010
Posts: 5,455
you never know when someone will backshoot you just for the hell of it, you can't begin to plan for these things.

Plan for what you can. make sure that you have an appropriate weapon and prepare for what could reasonably expected to happen. A farmer shouldn't carry the LCP as he works his fields. a model 29 isn't appropriate for mall carry. Will you possibly get into a crazy situation at a mall, in a store? maybe. It happens. Maybe you should train yourself to shoot at the distance across the main hallway of a mall, or across a typical shoe store.

There is no reason to stop there, there is just a minimum level of training that you should acquire if you you intend to be safe under even minimal normal conditions. If I didn't train at fifty plus feet, I couldn't even shoot the length of a bar that I go to occasionally. I couldn't shoot across a walgreens. Not an intersection. Training for your SAT exam by going over your sixth grade math book isn't going to work, is it?
__________________
None.
briandg is offline  
Old January 20, 2018, 06:37 PM   #13
Lohman446
Senior Member
 
Join Date: April 22, 2016
Posts: 2,112
Quote:
Lohman446: when jogging, do you carry? I have a fanny pack that would work ok for jogging or cycling, I just haven't tried it yet.

It's inconvenient, I would need to include my ID and permit, and in a SD situation, it would be very slow.
Not when running alone. I do when jogging with my kids with a crossbreed belly band. Not super comfortable or convenient or for that matter incredibly well concealed but around here it’s not vital
Lohman446 is offline  
Old January 20, 2018, 09:03 PM   #14
James K
Senior Member
 
Join Date: March 17, 1999
Posts: 24,383
Anyone who thinks he can prepare for every eventuality can't. Learn your weapon and how to use it, then try to avoid places where you might have to use it. Believe me, the best defensive shooting is the one you don't have.

Too many folks think it is like the Old West movies; the hero outdraws the bad guy, the sheriff slaps him on the back and buys him a drink, and he rides off into the sunset. I hope those who believe that fantasy never have to use a gun in self defense, even in the home. Believe me, it doesn't work that way.

Jim
__________________
Jim K
James K is offline  
Old January 20, 2018, 09:33 PM   #15
briandg
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 4, 2010
Posts: 5,455
James, I fully expected to have a gunfight before I died, I was amazed when I realized that it wasn't very likely. I was amazed that my father even failed to kill someone during his time in the air force.

It's a fact, no matter how many people deny it, people are influenced by what they see, and people are quite often delusional about such things. Not saying that it doesn't happen, but millions of people go through life without violence. Millions of people go through life without a terror attack.

My wife thought I was nuts for keeping defensive guns where I could access them, but after years of reminding hey that random tragedies happen she understands. She even carries mace. Otoh, I am continually amazed that she never locks her car doors until she has to stop her car next to a scary person.

Maybe being hit by numerous stupid drivers was what changed her. When a guy on a motorcycle goes over your hood after doing something incredibly stupid triggered it.

If this made no sense, it's because of a very nice bottle of champagne.
__________________
None.
briandg is offline  
Old January 20, 2018, 09:46 PM   #16
raimius
Senior Member
 
Join Date: January 27, 2008
Posts: 1,981
From the stats available, which are limited, a majority of defensive shooting occur at relatively close range, and few shots fired. Thus, preparing for that type of situation is wise. Yet, there are plenty of situations where longer distances or more shots are required. So, ONLY preparing for "conversational distance" violence is not recommended.

Personally, I would say 10yds or less should be the majority of self-defense training, but you should occasionally push it out to 25 or 50yds. This helps work on accuracy and provides you a good gauge of your speed/accuracy limitations.

**Prepare for the probable first, then the possible.**
raimius is offline  
Old January 20, 2018, 09:57 PM   #17
xsquidgator
Senior Member
 
Join Date: June 14, 2007
Posts: 115
Tom Givens (Rangemaster) has a great seminar/presentation he's put together with data from defensive gun uses (DGUs) from his former students. When I saw the presentation about 5-6 years ago, it was up to 65 former students of his who had fired a gun in self-defense. That's *fired in self-defense*, not "produced a gun without shooting".

The data he summarized supported the earlier statements in this thread about a typical DGU being only a couple of rounds. He said the average DGU was 3 rounds, at about 3 feet distance, and was over in 3 seconds or less. However, the extremes of rounds fired and distance were 11 rounds (all that the defender had in his gun when he experienced a home invasion, if he'd had more he'd have fired more), and a distance of 25 yards- one guy sitting on his porch reading the paper was attacked from across the street, and had to make 25 yard hits in order to stop his attacker.

On average it's very close and only a couple of rounds, but since you can prepare for the worst, you should. It would be awful to need more than 3 rounds and not have it, or to need to make a far shot and not be able to. Hope for the best, but train for the worst case.

By the way, of those 65 former students of his who needed to fire in self-defense? 63 prevailed against their attackers. The two who did not prevail, did not have their guns on them when they were attacked, and were killed by their attackers.
xsquidgator is offline  
Old January 21, 2018, 06:03 AM   #18
JJ45
Senior Member
 
Join Date: June 8, 2015
Posts: 643
Wow X, that's amazing!...but, I think it was M. Ayoob on shooting someone across the street...a good lawyer would eat that up and make it seem like you could have avoided it. Still, certainly, to train some at distance will improve your skills as you pointed out.

It's a thin line, as they say.
JJ45 is offline  
Old January 21, 2018, 07:46 AM   #19
briandg
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 4, 2010
Posts: 5,455
The laws here refer to another person being the legal equal of the self when self defense is involved. If your wife or children are attacked, the armed individual can defend them. A coworker, the person at your table at dinner, the table next to yours,the guy in the kitchen, even, or your neighbor who has been jumped by thugs. That's the letter of law,if anyone in the vicinity is in extreme danger, lethal force is justified.

The farther a person reaches beyond his own personal space, however,the greater the personal risk becomes in legal issues.

The example could be that if I was presented with a knife and a credible risk, it is within the law. There's no guarantee, though, and that ain't advice.

If I heard a woman screaming in the park at night and saw some goon beating her with a baseball bat, forfy yards away, I might be inclined to act. If it turns out that it was just a couple of stupid teenagers playing with a nerf bat, my God,I have obviously gone beyond reasonable belief, I guess, what did I see that absolutely made me believe that it was a life and death situation that led me to lean on a tree and head shoot the guy from over 100 feet away?

With every bit of distance in any of the various means of making a decision you have between yourself and your target, your risk of screwing up increases.

If I saw someone hit my neighbor, I would have grave concerns about his spinal injury and that would be the first step in the decision, if he is beaten badly it would probably paralyze him. There would be many, many other things for consideration before I grabbed the rifle from my closet and shot his attacker from about 100 feet.

The problem would be that I wouldn't know a thing, so my decision would be very weak.
__________________
None.
briandg is offline  
Old January 21, 2018, 08:03 AM   #20
OldMarksman
Staff
 
Join Date: June 8, 2008
Posts: 3,905
Quote:
That's the letter of law,if anyone in the vicinity is in extreme danger, lethal force is justified.
Not always.

There's more to it than that.
OldMarksman is offline  
Old January 21, 2018, 08:45 AM   #21
briandg
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 4, 2010
Posts: 5,455
That is how the law reads, with all of the normal caveats, reasonable belief, whether it was reasonable to believe, etc. As I said, it's not advice, and the rest of what I wrote was about how reasonable belief on the part of the shooter isn't always a correct assessment. The farther away a person is, for example a stranger, distance, understanding, so forth. Reasonable belief can go up in smoke when a person isn't directly involved. What can appear to be clear cut can turn into something totally different, and acting rashly without proper consideration can be a disaster.

The shooter can only act on his own beliefs, but the system judges whether or not his actions and beliefs were correct, so to speak.

Sd situations are never good for the careless or stupid, poor judgment is not protected.

Is this close to correct?
__________________
None.
briandg is offline  
Old January 21, 2018, 09:38 AM   #22
OldMarksman
Staff
 
Join Date: June 8, 2008
Posts: 3,905
Quote:
That is how the law reads, with all of the normal caveats, reasonable belief, whether it was reasonable to believe, etc.
Whatever that means....

The point is that there is more to it than "if anyone in the vicinity is in extreme danger, lethal force is justified.".

The "normal caveats" for self defense usually include indications of an imminant threat of death or great bodily harm, and a basis for reasonable belief hat deadly force, and no less, is immediately necessary.

There's also the little matter of innocence.

That also applies in the case of defending a third person, and it can be tricky. In most jurisdictions, unless there is a basis for reasonable belief that that "anyone in the vicinity" would be lawfully entitled to use deadly force for self defense, the use of deadly force would not be justified.

Distance may or may not enter into the equation for a basis for a readable belief. did the acorns know what had transpired before the encounter? Does the actor have any way of knowing who the participants might be? There would be more than distance involved in addressing those questions.
OldMarksman is offline  
Old January 24, 2018, 03:58 AM   #23
Jeff22
Senior Member
 
Join Date: September 15, 2004
Location: Madison, Wisconsin
Posts: 695
Check out

Fighting Smarter: A practical Guide for Surviving Violent Confrontations
By Tom Givens (revised 3rd edition)
(Memphis, Tennessee; Rangemaster, Inc; 29 January 2015)

Chapter 13 – Training Priorities (pages 95 to 105)

In summary, his recommendations:

I would suggest the following as the skills that a private citizen should work toward competency in:

 Fast, effective, and reliable presentation of the handgun from concealment.
 The ability to accurately place several quick shots into an anatomically important area of the target at a distance of 3 to 5 yards.
 The ability to place an anatomically important hit in a reasonable amount of time beyond 7 yards out to at least 25 yards.
 The ability to reload the handgun quickly and efficiently, especially if it holds less than 10 rounds.
 The ability to rapidly move off the line of force (sidestep) without hindering the presentation of the pistol from concealment
__________________
You can only learn from experience if you pay attention!
Jeff22 is offline  
Old January 24, 2018, 04:02 AM   #24
Jeff22
Senior Member
 
Join Date: September 15, 2004
Location: Madison, Wisconsin
Posts: 695
The FBI has for years studied incidents in which police officers were killed (The LEOKA reports)

They have NOT collected statistics on ALL police involved shootings, which I have always found quite bizarre. New York City PD publishes an annual report called SOP9 that provides statistics for incidents that NYPD officers are involved in.

I think Tom Givens and John Farnam and Massad Ayoob and some others have information on incidents that their students were involved in.

There is currently no comprehensive data base that exists that covers ALL police-involved or citizen involved shooting incidents.

As somebody commented above, first train for the probable and then prepare for the possible
__________________
You can only learn from experience if you pay attention!
Jeff22 is offline  
Old January 24, 2018, 08:21 AM   #25
Nanuk
Senior Member
 
Join Date: January 2, 2005
Location: Where the deer and the antelope roam.
Posts: 2,756
Carry the biggest most powerful gun you shoot well and conceal. After a lifetime of LE, between Military, Big city and Federal I carry a full size Glock 357 Sig or a Smith and Wesson 44 magnum revolver concealed every day all day.
__________________
Retired Law Enforcement
U. S. Army Veteran
Armorer
My rifle and pistol are tools, I am the weapon.
Nanuk is offline  
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 04:21 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
This site and contents, including all posts, Copyright © 1998-2018 S.W.A.T. Magazine
Copyright Complaints: Please direct DMCA Takedown Notices to the registered agent: thefiringline.com
Contact Us
Page generated in 0.09643 seconds with 8 queries