November 28, 2019, 09:57 AM | #76 |
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I’d forgotten about the BB gun fight with my best friend in middle school, Mike. At least we wore shop goggles although no one got hit. I remember we were running around in deep snow.
I now keep a box of no. 4 shotgun shells in the trunk as last time Dog and I went pheasant hunting the 10 rounds I lug around in my coat were depleted to one last round. The birds were not shooting back. Only one harvested and i was shooting poorly. |
November 28, 2019, 10:01 AM | #77 | |
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November 28, 2019, 10:31 AM | #78 | |
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To suggest otherwise is rather dewy-eyed. To say that they are irrelevant (to you) sounds a little more reasonable.
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November 28, 2019, 10:33 AM | #79 |
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Statistically, you are unlikely to ever need a fire extinguisher in your kitchen -- so why waste the money to buy one?
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November 28, 2019, 10:34 AM | #80 | |
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Every business, or scientific endeavor relies heavily on statistical analysis for all important decisions.
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November 28, 2019, 10:42 AM | #81 | |
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This is not an uncommon logic platform. What is uncommon is for someone to suggest that any reasonably accurate statistic relating to danger, is irrelevant.
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November 28, 2019, 10:58 AM | #82 | ||||
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That's basic conditional probability theory. Quote:
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The fact that the need to fire a gun in self defense is unlikely has not made me decide to not carry a fiirearnm. That is the only decision to which it would be relevant. The thread was not about that subject. There is a lot more to risk assessment than probability. Severity of potential consequences, availability of mitigation approaches.... |
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November 28, 2019, 11:03 AM | #83 | |
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Then perhaps you can reconcile this comment with the one you made in post 82. If you want to make a proclamation with out qualification.. people are probably going to assume you are speaking completely and broadly.
I still remain confused if you think the statistics are relevant or not. Quote:
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Life is a web woven by necessity and chance... Last edited by FireForged; November 28, 2019 at 11:11 AM. |
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November 28, 2019, 11:10 AM | #84 | ||
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The thread is about the number of rounds that may be required should shooting occur. Completely irrelevant. Quote:
But stats from the limited actual data available, with the large number of variables, are of very limited usefulness indeed. Rather, one would have to apply statistical analysis and modeling techniques to other measures, which would be obtained via simulation, shooting exercises, and so on. |
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November 28, 2019, 11:14 AM | #85 |
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Thank you for explaining it.. ONE MORE TIME.
well, we simply stand at odds in this regard. I think it is quite relevant and can easily be a part of what a person decides to carry as well as capacity. I stand by my previous criticism.
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Life is a web woven by necessity and chance... Last edited by FireForged; November 28, 2019 at 11:22 AM. |
November 28, 2019, 11:21 AM | #86 | |
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November 28, 2019, 11:41 AM | #87 |
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I never said that it would have anything to do with what I feel is needed ( should it occur). I was suggesting that it could have a bearing on what a person decides to carry in regards to capacity. In essence, what they are willing to settle for based on a presumption of exceedingly low risk.
What I am saying is that people may settle for less capabilities if they consider the risk to be rather low. If a person accepts that they are not likely to EVER need a gun or if they feel that danger is incredibly unlikely to confront them is a certain place or at a certain time, they may settle for something less. I am not saying that I accept those things as critically important or that I make my decisions based primarily on statistical likelihoods ( because I don't). I am saying that it is not unreasonable to consider such things or that such things have some manner of impact on a persons decision. Perhaps I missed it but I did not take this discussion to be about what a person likely needs to walk onto the active field of battle. I agree, it doesn't really matter how unlikely you are to get into a gunfight if you already know the gunfight is going to happen or is happening. JohnKSa made a thoughtful comment which included a reference to stats and I tend to agree with what he said. The Stats as he framed them in his comment are indeed relevant as far as I am concerned. I say this to clarify my point for the reader, not to change anyone's mind.
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Life is a web woven by necessity and chance... Last edited by FireForged; November 28, 2019 at 11:53 AM. |
November 28, 2019, 12:22 PM | #88 | ||
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November 28, 2019, 12:26 PM | #89 | |
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What if I said that dominating the fight can be as simple as 1 or 2 solid hits, take cover and let nature take its course. I know in today's PC climate that is unpopular, but it beats the alternative.
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November 28, 2019, 12:42 PM | #90 | |
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November 28, 2019, 12:58 PM | #91 | ||
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Every so often, someone brings up the point that gunfights are improbable as a rationale for low capacity. That might be good rationale for not carrying a gun, but what I was trying to get across is that once the decision to carry has been made, it must be left behind. From that point on, the focus is how to survive a gunfight, not on whether or not it's likely you'll be in a gunfight. Quote:
How many rounds a person needs to survive a gunfight is totally independent of whether or not gunfights are improbable. Let's say you're in an area where gunfights are extremely improbable. Does that mean you'd expect to need fewer shots to survive a gunfight in that area? Of course not. The actual gunfight itself isn't going to be different just because it's less probable to occur. If you think that incidents requiring a gun are too improbable to prepare for, then don't carry a gun. That's a reasonable decision that most people make and that most people get away with. BUT, once you have decided to carry a gun it doesn't make sense to carry one with very limited capability. You've already made the decision that you want to prepare for an incident requiring a gun--NOW it's time to focus on what it takes to survive that incident. If you decide to re-evaluate your decision to carry a gun, that's fine. But mixing the two decisions doesn't make sense. The two things are completely independent of each other. The probability of needing a gun does not affect how many rounds will be required if the need arises nor is it affected by the number of rounds required to survive the incident. The number of rounds required to survive a violent incident does not affect and is not affected by the probability of needing a gun. Both of those statements are true--it doesn't make sense to pretend that they aren't.
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November 28, 2019, 01:01 PM | #92 | |||||
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Consider the likelihood of a kitchen fire. It is very low. But tthe severity of the potential consequnces is such that many of us choose to mitigate it. I do, The low likelihood of occurrence would never properly justify a decision to have a fire extinguisher containing a mere cubic centimeter or two of material. If a fire occurs, putting it out will take what it takes, the low risk of occurrence notwithstanding. Does that help? Quote:
Full disclosure: at one time, I did approach my carry decision in that manner, but then someone on TFL questioned the logic, and I realized the folly, Before I ever started carrying, I co-wrote the risk management procedures for a major corporation. And yet, I initially ignored what I knew. Quote:
What is it, then, that you have been trying to say? Quote:
To wit, "...if you decide you do want to prepare for a gunfight, then start thinking about how to do that and STOP thinking about how unlikely they are--". |
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November 28, 2019, 01:37 PM | #93 |
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I have repeatedly placed my comments into context, if you are confused by what I said, missed the point or whatever.. I cannot further clarify. Its not like I dropped a comment and refused to elaborate. At some point it just becomes silly to labor the point. If you disagree with what I said, its fine by me. Historically, we do not agree very often. I stand by my previous criticism for all the reasons I have previously outlined. I simply will not run this into circles or deflect into some other point.
I have enjoyed many comments in this thread I wish everyone the best
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Life is a web woven by necessity and chance... Last edited by FireForged; November 28, 2019 at 01:42 PM. |
November 28, 2019, 06:36 PM | #94 |
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Wow
Loads of interesting replies.
I had to go back and see why I had started this thread.....almost forgot my reason.. I was just wondering that if I am fairly proficient with a revolver, why I need to carry a semi with many more rounds in back up?? |
November 29, 2019, 07:58 AM | #95 | |
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BUT, statistics mean zero if anybody finds themselves in a situation where they 'need' a gun, of course. Can it happen? Sure can. But again, chances are slim. Everybody has to make their own decisions based on their own circumstances. I live in a 'statistically' VERY safe town, and the ones I am around often(grand daughters, Daughter-in-law) do too but I carry everyday, all day.
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November 29, 2019, 10:34 AM | #96 |
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About statistics:
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November 29, 2019, 01:40 PM | #97 |
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I try to keep in mind that my whole survival up to his point in life has been due to a string of statistical anomalies.
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November 29, 2019, 06:14 PM | #98 |
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What I learned about this forum is that people don't really care what your reasoning is. Even if you've been gun fights, fought overseas, worked undercover, etc. They don't care.
They made their decision to carry 5-6 rounds and that's that. Why? Statistics told them so. I make it a point to not argue that point anymore because they refute any new information and fail to register the fact that criminals travel in packs and seem to love extended magazines and high capacity weapons themselves. So they're handicapping themselves at a chance of survival. Cognitive dissonance much? Anyway... You'll rarely meet too many people who have been in gunfights stateside (where they mainly carry pistols) carry less ammunition after their gun fight than they did before their gun fight. The anxiety of being low on ammunition while still getting engaged or in a "hot-zone" is earth-shattering. Military is pretty divided as they mention stateside that they're given a duty to retreat or become reactive is slimmer than overseas where they mainly carried rifles and had an entirely different code to abide by. That said, I and many others I know carry similarly. Glock 17 or HK P30L with at least one spare on person. The usual EDC pocket dumps. And medical. A TQ and combat gauze are a must. Some lessons are learned the hard way and there's nothing we can do about it. Not even sit around and take low-key shots at one another because of pride will help that. |
November 29, 2019, 08:19 PM | #99 | |
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November 29, 2019, 08:23 PM | #100 | |
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