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June 3, 2009, 10:03 AM | #51 |
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Of course, to truly know if something like CCW has any effect on crime it would have to be introduced in significant numbers very quickly, to an area that previously had no legal carry method. Otherwise, there is simply no way of isolating the effect of CCW. Things like entire societies are simply too complicated with far too many variables to be able to identify solid causal relationships over an extended period of time.
For example, New Orleans has CCW but we have NO WAY of knowing if the crime rate would be higher or lower or indifferent without it. DC could actually be a good testing ground. If they are forced to allow concealed carry in the near future and they issue thousands of permits in a short time then we may be able to identify a positive correlation. You simply cannot take a snippet of time from a complex equation and identify the effects of any variable you choose. XYZ city has CCW and low crime. Is there a correlation? Maybe it's because it's a Bible belt city and they have more devout Christians. Maybe they've got a judicial system that's tough on crime. Maybe it's low unemployment. Maybe it's because they're not on a major highway that serves as a drug route. Maybe it's a combination of all those things and more. There is simply NO WAY to tell.
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June 3, 2009, 03:38 PM | #52 | |
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Concealed carry doesn't seem to change crime trends in any way. Along similar lines, the many political types will tell you that putting more police officers on the streets reduces crime. Death penalty advocates used to argue that the death penalty reduced crime, but that doesn't pan out either, nor does heavier prison penalties. My point here is that lots of people/groups/causes want to take credit when crime rates drop and will show some sort of correlation, but none show causation. All have excuses for why crime rates may go up in spite of the championing of their pet causes.
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June 3, 2009, 10:33 PM | #53 | ||
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Give me 5 active CCW holders in a crowd of 5,000 strangers and they aren't going to hold a candle to cause a drop in crime. Give me 2,500 CCW holders in the same crowd and it's a whole 'nuther ball game. UCR stats don't do anything for this, do they? It's that darn common sense thing.... Can't comment much on your claim of heavier prison penalties and the death penalty not panning out without going off-topic. All I have to say is the former hasn't been further from the truth, i.e. child rapists getting 60 days probation (thanks judge Edward Cashman of Vermont) and the latter hasn't worked when the convicted is getting three hots and a cot knowing it won't happen anyway by looking at the odds. The strongest chain is it's weakest link and if you don't have all cylinders firing the way it should, it's a failure from the get go and the theory is the scapegoat. Quote:
Let's get down to an individual level. Does anyone think they are probably NOT increasing their odds of keeping them from being a statistic if one is carrying concealed? Not me. If this is the case, then why wouldn't it work at a mass level? It would work at an even better rate if there were significant numbers amongst us. Until then, the UCR or whatever stat you want to throw at trying to debunk the theory isn't worth a grain of salt. All it's showing, AT BEST, is a very small percentage of actual active CCW holders isn't enough to provide ANY conclusion.
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June 4, 2009, 01:12 AM | #54 | |
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June 4, 2009, 08:30 AM | #55 | ||||
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They also like to cite states like Texas those form Texas where crime dropped the very year the CHL program came online, as if bad guys magically got a clue and stopped committing crime because of a new law and without consider the data in the greater context of things like trends already in progress. Quote:
And how can you argue with this logic that concealed carry reduces crime? Quote:
So obviously, if concealed carry doesn't increase violent crime, then it must reduce it? What??? http://www.thefiringline.com/forums/...y+lowers+crime http://www.thefiringline.com/forums/...+reduces+crime http://www.thefiringline.com/forums/...+reduces+crime http://www.thefiringline.com/forums/...+reduces+crime We all want something magical to happen
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June 4, 2009, 09:37 AM | #56 |
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There's a scholarly debate on Lott. Some is from antigunners and some from progun folks but who are critical scholars.
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.c...ract_id=431220 http://jrc.sagepub.com/cgi/content/abstract/42/2/187 It might be useful to read such if one is serious in the debate. I've heard that Kleck isn't a big fan of Lott's analyses.
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June 4, 2009, 10:22 PM | #57 |
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DoubleNaught,
Here is a link that starts a 13 part YouTube video of a debate from I2QUS. The title: Resolved; Guns Reduce Crime. On our side is Gary Kleck, John Lott, Stephen Halbrooke(NRA Lawyer) and on the other side; Paul Helmke (Brady Campaign), John Donohue(whose paper Glenn cited), and Gil Kerlikowski the Chief of Police of Seattle. It takes on a lot of these issues. I found it fascinating. I really like Kleck and Halbrooke. Takes awhile to watch but well worth it and not quite as dry as reading a thesis! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DraTc...x=0&playnext=1
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June 4, 2009, 11:47 PM | #58 | |
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Find a town that will participate in an experiment supporting my claim and I'm willing to put a Buffalo Nickel down for a bet. This is my last post since this is going nowhere. It's obvious by reading the links you've provided that your mind is already made up and won't concede to my point of common sense. I wouldn't take up a criminal profession. You'd probably be caught on the wrong side of a gun in short order. Criminals usually weigh in probables before commiting to a crime. This simple issue touches base with all the unknowns that stats just aren't covering. This is my whole point. It may have been a whopping 20 years give or take that shall issue has been restored. But it's only been in recent years that the majority of states changed to shall issue. Even then, I still assert CCW holders are in the extreme minority and are severely outnumbered. Uh-oh, there's that probability factor again... I'm still going to listen to the Platoon Sergeant...
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June 5, 2009, 07:01 AM | #59 | ||
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My guess would be it was totally...unchanged.
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June 5, 2009, 10:15 AM | #60 | |
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June 5, 2009, 10:40 AM | #61 | ||
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June 5, 2009, 11:01 AM | #62 | |||||
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As Glenn said, "It might be useful to read such if one is serious in the debate." There are those that are serious about learning, and they read the books, the journal articles, the reviews and analysis. Then there are those that are not serious, who are only interested in finding snippets and nuggets of info without any concern for understanding the whole picture. |
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June 5, 2009, 11:17 AM | #63 | ||||||
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June 5, 2009, 12:20 PM | #64 | |||||
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Last edited by David Armstrong; June 5, 2009 at 12:27 PM. |
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June 5, 2009, 02:01 PM | #65 | ||||
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Nevertheless, I have downloaded and read Mr. Donohue's 2003 paper. A couple of thoughts. First this is not research but a brief commentary about research that someone else did. Mostly, Kovandzic and Marvell who according to Donohue criticized Lott's work. Second, Donohue clearly shows his anti-gun bias by agreeing with and praising Kovandzic and Marvell when their findings suit his views but is nonplussed and critical when they conclude; Quote:
He then goes on to make some strange comments about how much it costs law enforcement to have CCW and it is easier to enforce a law where no carry is permitted versus one where some are licensed. That statement makes no sense and he offers no explanation. Now he goes on to tell a story about the movie Actor Sean Penn (who is a flake and probably should not be allowed to CCW) who had a rare CA permit (probably because of his star status a la The Robert Deniro Rule) and stupidly left his gun unsecured in his car while he "did lunch" and it was stolen along with his car and they found the car but not the gun. Not sure what that had to do with Lott's research about law abiding citizens CCW but there it was. In footnote 21 he quotes a historian Randy Roth who blatantly misquotes Kleck's study by saying that DGUs mean shooting someone and that if Kleck and Gertz's studies were true then "American gun owners shot 100,000 criminals in 1994 in self-defense – a preposterous number.” Since Kleck didn't say all DGUs meant someone was shot, and meremly drawing the weapons stopped the crime I agree it is preposterous and Roth needs to read Kleck's study. Conclusions; Mr. Donohue offers little to the debate and doesn't nearly go into the depth that my link provides about guns and crime. However, during the debate I posted Donohue, who is participating, keeps bringing up some panel or board that he claimed refuted Lott's work. Kleck and Lott descend on him with swiftness and adroitly refute and rebuff his claim and even the moderator is forced to agree with Lott and Kleck that the board or group really did a "Ponitus Pilate" and washed their hands concerning a conclusion. Donohue is speechless. But I don't want to ruin it for you. Does more guns mean less crime? I don't know, but neither does Mr. Donohue. All he knows is that he doesn't like guns. After you have viewed the link I provided I would be happy to discuss it more. I think those who are progun rights will like how the audience (a hostile NY crowd) changed a good bit after hearing both sides.
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June 5, 2009, 02:24 PM | #66 | |||||||
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ETA: This is one of those reasons why one should actually get the material and look at it. Quote:
draw firm conclusions about virtually every issue they addressed, so, that was more of a no-decision decision than it was reaching the opposite conclusion, they did not reach the conclusion that making it easy to get a carry permit increases crime. They did not conclude that John Lott was wrong, and basically, you know, you learn nothing from what that particular panel said." Donvan, the moderator, then says, "I’ve read the same report and I have to say, Gary, that I read it the same way, actually, it was a bit of a Pontius Pilate moment that didn’t know who was right or who was wrong." In other words, the moderator agrees with Donahue's statment about the panel, that the panel did not find any evidence that guns reduced crime. Kleck even acknowledges that by saying, "Yeah, you kind of read the thing and you ask was this trip really necessary." Everybody basically agrees with Donahue, who's entire comment, when put together without the interruptions, is as follows: All the tests that John do show that crime gets better. But, again, this is exactly what the National Academy of Science looked at. And, they concluded the opposite, that the data did not support the proposition that we’re debating today which is that guns reduce crime. Last edited by David Armstrong; June 5, 2009 at 02:55 PM. |
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June 5, 2009, 02:39 PM | #67 | |||||||
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June 5, 2009, 03:10 PM | #68 | ||||||
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June 5, 2009, 03:56 PM | #69 | |
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June 5, 2009, 03:56 PM | #70 |
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The gun ban/control game, no end Is sight
I want to thank you for putting me on to that 13 part Item on You Tube, I watched all of it and as always if you were pro gun before you will still be now and also con. What came first the chicken or the egg!!! I remember when Florida first was talking about going for the CCW and it was going up for a vote and the press went wild, there will be shootouts is the streets and we will be going back the the wild west and on and on! Well P.S. the vote was passed and nothing happened, people got there CCWs by the droves and no shootouts In the streets , no wild west, nothing and just what did you hear from the press? Nothing, the sound of silince!!! it's that good old double standard over again, the one that stood out for me was that john Donohue, a tipical teacher type that will only talk to the people that think like him, no rime or reason, his way or the highway, I never saw him before, but that's just how he came across to me!!! and that group of people, who were they, were were thy from, did they belong to some group, because that can change everything. Some of the stories that came from the cop and Mayor sound like they were coming right out of a politicians mouth, slanted & bias. so when all was finished, much ado about nothing.
I'm still glad I took the time to watch, like minds think alike. Some people hear just what they want to hear and also you have the people that will tell them just what they think they want to hear, so around and around we go. As always sorry for the bad spelling, not my thing, and Semper FI to all Hank D. |
June 5, 2009, 04:13 PM | #71 |
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Thanks Hank, I am glad you liked it.
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June 5, 2009, 05:02 PM | #72 | ||||||
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June 5, 2009, 06:08 PM | #73 |
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Anybody remember the short-lived spate of German tourists who were being robbed (and two killed) in Florida in the late 80's or early 90's? There is one indication of one of the "unintended consequences" of CCW.
From what I recall reading of the case one of the gang members involved in the tourist robberies had his own "close call" with a CCW holder. This got a small group to thinking about hitting foreign tourists, as they would be unarmed, carrying U.S. cash for the trip as well as having cameras and video gear. It went fairly well until two German tourists were killed and then, under pressure from the tourism trade, police began a serious effort to stop the robberies. In Texas, a car-theft ring was stealing cars from shopping center lots. Police lucked out when a known parolee was spotted getting into a Mercedes in a mall lot and driving away. An officer trailed the car while waiting for back-up and pinpointed a crooked car shop in the process. 8 of 12 suspects arrested had priors for armed robbery, robbery, assault and one rape. During interrogation one admitted that stealing cars was "much safer than risking getting shot in a robbery." Now... maybe you don't believe or you discount those as ancedotes that don't mean much. In most states, less than about 3% of the population has a CCW permit. That number will rise if you eliminate children (about 40%) and those disqualified from owning guns. Call it 8% of the adult population. If 8% can shift some criminals from violent crime to property crimes that means a slightly safer society. Most important, is that it gives the honest citizen the means to protect himself and family from the dregs of society.
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June 5, 2009, 06:38 PM | #74 | |
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Yep, I've used that example numerous times. When the thugs were asked why they had targeted tourists they explicated stated "because we know they're not armed." Even though that is a redirection of crime rather than a reduction, it does make one wonder what the thugs would have done had there not been tourists around. A reduction in their activity would certainly be likely.
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June 5, 2009, 08:59 PM | #75 |
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Let's just keep it calm, folks. I think the point is that we need to examine the sources and look at the originals if we can. Panel discussions with experts are quite useful as summaries.
I think we have reached a useful conclusion that we can't just spout a catch phrase but gather real info to back up the summaries. I will now bring peace to the Middle East.
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