Likelihood of reversing Izhmash Ban Executive Order?

Willie D · November 13, 2016, 02:34 PM

What are the odds of this happening? Seems like a possibility although there may be pressure from domestic manufacturers to keep the status quo.

kilimanjaro · November 13, 2016, 06:27 PM

Maybe, if Trump rescinds all Obama orders, but reality is US jobs gain with manufacturing here.

Bartholomew Roberts · November 13, 2016, 08:49 PM

I'm kind of skeptical that a candidate who wants to keep jobs in the U.S. and is skeptical of our trade agreements is going to open the floodgates on cheap imports to compete with American businesses.

kozak6 · November 14, 2016, 05:20 AM

There's a lot of conspiracy theories concerning Trump's relationship with Russia. It will be fascinating to see how it all plays out.

A floodgate of cheap imports? I wish! We're talking Obama's EO, not Bill Clinton's voluntary restraint agreement. Most of Izhmash's previously importable firearms weren't particularly cheap nor even interesting. The Saiga series is where it's at.

Remington sold a lot of their stuff rebadged or under their Spartan line, so there might be less pressure than you'd expect.

carguychris · November 14, 2016, 09:54 AM

Kozak6 and BR both have excellent points.

If Trump rescinds the EO, the MSM is going to scream foul, and we're going to hear both "Trump is pandering to evil dirty Putin!" AND "Trump is a pants-on-fire hypocrite on trade!" at the same time, likely in the same editorials. (The irony of the political left making latter accusation will be overwhelming, given that we're primarily discussing EBRs, but I predict this won't stop the MSM from running with it.

)

When he was a candidate, Trump seemed to relish this sort of ready-made controversy, even when (perhaps ESPECIALLY when) it was obvious that he was being baited. OTOH his course as president-elect has yet to be conclusively demonstrated.

This one is hard to call, but my hunch is that he will stay out of it. There are plenty of gun-rights initiatives that will yield more measurable benefits in proportion to the controversy they will generate.

5whiskey · November 14, 2016, 11:07 PM

I agree with Chris. That political capital can be used elsewhere for a much greater gain. I could care less about Izhmash arms... Better options out there

Bartholomew Roberts · November 15, 2016, 07:56 AM

True about political capital from both sides. If you are Putin and Trump is your best buddy ever, you've probably got a long list of controversial policy changes you want to see before spending it on reopening the U.S. to Izhmash exports.

amd6547 · November 15, 2016, 08:56 AM

Well, I like my Saiga 5.45 a lot, so I'd like to see them come back...though I would profit if they didn't.
I would like to see action taken on the ban of 7n6 5.45 imports.

Targa · November 15, 2016, 09:13 AM

I would like to see it reversed. Saiga's for example were one of the best bangs for the buck IMO, my 7.62x39 is alot fun at the range, I wouldn't mind another one in 5.45.

rickyrick · November 16, 2016, 11:49 AM

Russia takes, or at least, sometimes takes our astronauts to the space station. Apparently someone has a friendly relationship with Russia.

carguychris · November 16, 2016, 12:47 PM

Putin has threatened to use the space-travel concessions as a bargaining chip before, along with steering Russian long-haul airliner purchases to Airbus rather than Boeing. The U.S.-Russia relationship is complex.

That said, the Kalashnikov/Izhmash EO represents a pinprick in terms of U.S.-Russian commerce. It's primarily symbolic, which is the main reason I think it's unlikely to be rescinded – there's little practical value in doing so. Trump has bigger fish to fry.

(Just for the record, I'd like to see both this EO and the much broader DoS voluntary restraint agreement overturned; I just don't think either is likely to happen while U.S.-Russian relations are deteriorating.)

**44 AMP** · November 16, 2016, 05:05 PM

Quote:

I just don't think either is likely to happen while U.S.-Russian relations are deteriorating.)

Deteriorating?? You mean Hillary's "reset button" didn't fix all that???

carguychris · November 17, 2016, 09:19 AM

^^^ I do a reflexive facepalm whenever anyone in the executive branch begins discussing a "reset button" in the context of international relations.

danco · November 17, 2016, 03:49 PM

Quote:

Russia takes, or at least, sometimes takes our astronauts to the space station. Apparently someone has a friendly relationship with Russia.

That'd be NASA...

thallub · November 17, 2016, 08:19 PM

Quote:

That said, the Kalashnikov/Izhmash EO represents a pinprick in terms of U.S.-Russian commerce.

There is no such "executive order". There are no executive orders pertaining to gun control.

https://www.archives.gov/federal-reg...-subjects.html

carguychris · November 17, 2016, 09:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thallub

There is no such "executive order". There are no executive orders pertaining to gun control.

This link says otherwise. Scroll down to the part where the Kalashnikov Concern aka/fka Izhmash is placed on the Specially Designated Nationals (i.e. banned persons and companies) list.

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-ce.../20140716.aspx

I'll cut you some slack.

The EO is hard to find unless you know where to look, because it's written in dense and byzantine trade-sanction language and says nothing explicit about guns, firearms, arms, weapons, etc.

[EDIT] Also, an important thing to understand is that it's not a broad ban on Russian firearms; it's a specific set of sanctions against Russian companies under a particular corporate umbrella. It just happens to encompass Saiga rifles and shotguns.

Old Bill Dibble · November 18, 2016, 02:56 AM

I'm thinking that this will start to go away in January.

**44 AMP** · November 18, 2016, 04:14 PM

Maybe it will go away, maybe not.

Remember that the Gun Control Act 68 was supported by gun makers, and representatives because a good part of it was a trade protection law.

It's provisions to restrict import guns (especially the cheap competition) were welcomed by US gun makers. And, American worker's facing job loss from cheap(er) foreign products was something politician's still took seriously back then. (they claim they do now, but the way things seem to work out, I have my doubts about how serious some of them really are...)

They supported it, then, because it was good for business. And Trump is all about business.

He'll bend some ways to do business with Russia, and bend other ways to keep the support of American businesses. Where he winds up on any specific matter is, I think, too soon to call.

November 13, 2016, 02:34 PM	#1
Willie D Senior Member Join Date: June 24, 2007 Posts: 1,149	Likelihood of reversing Izhmash Ban Executive Order? What are the odds of this happening? Seems like a possibility although there may be pressure from domestic manufacturers to keep the status quo.

November 14, 2016, 09:54 AM	#5
carguychris Senior Member Join Date: October 20, 2007 Location: Richardson, TX Posts: 7,523	Kozak6 and BR both have excellent points. If Trump rescinds the EO, the MSM is going to scream foul, and we're going to hear both "Trump is pandering to evil dirty Putin!" AND "Trump is a pants-on-fire hypocrite on trade!" at the same time, likely in the same editorials. (The irony of the political left making latter accusation will be overwhelming, given that we're primarily discussing EBRs, but I predict this won't stop the MSM from running with it. ) When he was a candidate, Trump seemed to relish this sort of ready-made controversy, even when (perhaps ESPECIALLY when) it was obvious that he was being baited. OTOH his course as president-elect has yet to be conclusively demonstrated. This one is hard to call, but my hunch is that he will stay out of it. There are plenty of gun-rights initiatives that will yield more measurable benefits in proportion to the controversy they will generate. __________________ "Smokey, this is not 'Nam. This is bowling. There are rules... MARK IT ZERO!!" - Walter Sobchak Last edited by carguychris; November 14, 2016 at 10:07 AM. Reason: minor reword

November 15, 2016, 08:56 AM	#8
amd6547 Senior Member Join Date: May 27, 2006 Posts: 2,313	Well, I like my Saiga 5.45 a lot, so I'd like to see them come back...though I would profit if they didn't. I would like to see action taken on the ban of 7n6 5.45 imports. __________________ The past is gone...the future may never happen. Be Here Now.

November 16, 2016, 12:47 PM	#11
carguychris Senior Member Join Date: October 20, 2007 Location: Richardson, TX Posts: 7,523	Putin has threatened to use the space-travel concessions as a bargaining chip before, along with steering Russian long-haul airliner purchases to Airbus rather than Boeing. The U.S.-Russia relationship is complex. That said, the Kalashnikov/Izhmash EO represents a pinprick in terms of U.S.-Russian commerce. It's primarily symbolic, which is the main reason I think it's unlikely to be rescinded – there's little practical value in doing so. Trump has bigger fish to fry. (Just for the record, I'd like to see both this EO and the much broader DoS voluntary restraint agreement overturned; I just don't think either is likely to happen while U.S.-Russian relations are deteriorating.) __________________ "Smokey, this is not 'Nam. This is bowling. There are rules... MARK IT ZERO!!" - Walter Sobchak

November 17, 2016, 09:19 AM	#13
carguychris Senior Member Join Date: October 20, 2007 Location: Richardson, TX Posts: 7,523	^^^ I do a reflexive facepalm whenever anyone in the executive branch begins discussing a "reset button" in the context of international relations. __________________ "Smokey, this is not 'Nam. This is bowling. There are rules... MARK IT ZERO!!" - Walter Sobchak

November 13, 2016, 06:27 PM	#2
kilimanjaro Senior Member Join Date: November 23, 2009 Posts: 3,963	Maybe, if Trump rescinds all Obama orders, but reality is US jobs gain with manufacturing here.

November 13, 2016, 08:49 PM	#3
Bartholomew Roberts member Join Date: June 12, 2000 Location: Texas and Oklahoma area Posts: 8,462	I'm kind of skeptical that a candidate who wants to keep jobs in the U.S. and is skeptical of our trade agreements is going to open the floodgates on cheap imports to compete with American businesses.

November 14, 2016, 05:20 AM	#4
kozak6 Senior Member Join Date: June 16, 2005 Location: AZ Posts: 3,113	There's a lot of conspiracy theories concerning Trump's relationship with Russia. It will be fascinating to see how it all plays out. A floodgate of cheap imports? I wish! We're talking Obama's EO, not Bill Clinton's voluntary restraint agreement. Most of Izhmash's previously importable firearms weren't particularly cheap nor even interesting. The Saiga series is where it's at. Remington sold a lot of their stuff rebadged or under their Spartan line, so there might be less pressure than you'd expect.

November 14, 2016, 11:07 PM	#6
5whiskey Senior Member Join Date: October 23, 2005 Location: US Posts: 3,652	I agree with Chris. That political capital can be used elsewhere for a much greater gain. I could care less about Izhmash arms... Better options out there

November 15, 2016, 07:56 AM	#7
Bartholomew Roberts member Join Date: June 12, 2000 Location: Texas and Oklahoma area Posts: 8,462	True about political capital from both sides. If you are Putin and Trump is your best buddy ever, you've probably got a long list of controversial policy changes you want to see before spending it on reopening the U.S. to Izhmash exports.

November 15, 2016, 09:13 AM	#9
Targa Senior Member Join Date: March 20, 2014 Posts: 2,084	I would like to see it reversed. Saiga's for example were one of the best bangs for the buck IMO, my 7.62x39 is alot fun at the range, I wouldn't mind another one in 5.45.

November 16, 2016, 11:49 AM	#10
rickyrick Senior Member Join Date: March 15, 2010 Posts: 8,236	Russia takes, or at least, sometimes takes our astronauts to the space station. Apparently someone has a friendly relationship with Russia.

November 18, 2016, 02:56 AM	#17
Old Bill Dibble Senior Member Join Date: July 25, 2016 Posts: 802	I'm thinking that this will start to go away in January. __________________ "Tragedy has been and will always be with us. Somewhere right now, evil people are planning evil things. All of us will do everything meaningful, everything we can do to prevent it, but each horrible act can’t become an axe for opportunists to cleave the very Bill of Rights that binds us."

November 18, 2016, 04:14 PM	#18
44 AMP Staff Join Date: March 11, 2006 Location: Upper US Posts: 28,820	Maybe it will go away, maybe not. Remember that the Gun Control Act 68 was supported by gun makers, and representatives because a good part of it was a trade protection law. It's provisions to restrict import guns (especially the cheap competition) were welcomed by US gun makers. And, American worker's facing job loss from cheap(er) foreign products was something politician's still took seriously back then. (they claim they do now, but the way things seem to work out, I have my doubts about how serious some of them really are...) They supported it, then, because it was good for business. And Trump is all about business. He'll bend some ways to do business with Russia, and bend other ways to keep the support of American businesses. Where he winds up on any specific matter is, I think, too soon to call. __________________ All else being equal (and it almost never is) bigger bullets tend to work better.