Ammo Shortages = Alternate Calibers? - Page 2

44caliberkid · August 19, 2020, 07:14 PM

I was surprised to see all the spam cans of 7.62x25 are sold out. I feel adequately armed with a Tok or a CZ52.

Seven High · August 20, 2020, 07:45 PM

I’m surprised that foreign manufacturers of ammunition aren’t ramping up production for our domestic market. I would expect to see large amounts of Wolf and Tula.

Mystro · August 21, 2020, 08:23 AM

I am finding that high end monolithic bullets that would never be sold on their own are starting to enter the consumer reloading market. This is showing that ammunition companies are being starved of their components as well and forced to sell what they can in this current market.

Jim Watson · August 21, 2020, 10:13 AM

I do reload, I do compete, so my planning is about an order of magnitude higher than many here. I have enough powder and primers to last past the Inauguration Riots.
I have bullets on order which I fondly hope will arrive sometime next month.

Just to show how cyclic the business is, the last time I bought primers, Winchester was giving a 25% rebate. So I bought 15,000. But there was no HP38 or W231 to be had, so I bought Bullseye.

TRX · August 21, 2020, 01:14 PM

> When that 38 Super and 32 ammo is gone none of the manufacturers will produce any more until they get caught up on production of more common rounds.
---
That's what happened to me when I bought a .50 Beowulf in 2008. It was almost a year before my back-ordered brass started coming in. I'd ordered from two different vendors that claimed it was "in stock"...

While I understand no manufacturer wants unused capacity sitting around not making money, ammo and component supplies have been iffy ever since late 2001. The "our military contracts" and "election hoarding" excuses are getting pretty stale.

**44 AMP** · August 22, 2020, 12:05 PM

I have some pistols that have been totally unaffected by the current ammo shortage. They were also totally unaffected by the last ammo shortage.

I can find exactly the same amount of ammo for them on the shelves as there has been for the past 40 years or so, everywhere I look,

None.

When I want ammo for them, I make it.

And I have enough components to probably meet my needs for the next 20 years, which is likely as long as I'll be around to need them. Possibly longer than I will be around to need them...

wild cat mccane · August 22, 2020, 03:20 PM

Northrup owns the US defense contract for the private/public contract for US govt owned Lake City. They also own (Vista Outdoors) Federal and Speer/CCI.

Remington just went under in Chapter 11 (again) and has closed ammo for now. Takes down Barnes and the other Freedom owned companies.

While Hornady makes the FBI round now, if they switch to Vista's new 2019 G2 Gold Dot which performs better than the Critical Duty round, they kinda have nothing but specialty XTP loads. (think big buyers, no retail)

Literally one company is producing almost all handgun ammo made in the US right now and also is the same one making most commercial bullets to load.

So an alternative caliber isn't going to save you. There is no big company to make the bullets or load the rounds. Once those stocks dry up AND if 9mm is still surging, no way are we seeing more. Look at 357 market. Gonzo for over a month now. Totally gone.

GarrettJ · August 23, 2020, 05:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aguila Blanca

So, yes, it's a no brainer to use the same slide for 9mm and .38 Super. It probably won't ever need a different recoil spring, but it might call for slight tweaking of the extractor tension.

I had seen at one time (mid-90s) when Colt was selling a 1911 set with both 9mm and .38 Super barrels. It came in a hard plastic case with both barrels and one magazine to go with each. I don’t believe they changed springs with it.

**44 AMP** · August 27, 2020, 12:04 AM

The big problem, for those not reloading, is that while "alternate" calibers, meaning those rounds that are less popular, not service rounds, and including those that are semi-obsolete is, that while they may be the last thing you find on the shelf, they are also the last thing replaced.

In general (and in "normal" times) the way the ammo manufacturers work is a combination of regular production (those rounds in high volume use) and "seasonal" production, which is those rounds with low demand that are only made once in a while.

Now, seasonal doesn't mean every fall or at Christmas it means every few years, based on usual demand. When the warehouse stock level reaches a previously set "low" quantity, the factory tools up a production line and cranks out the seasonal round until their stock is back up to "full" then shuts it down, packs away the tooling and that line goes back to making the regular production rounds.

How much of what they make as seasonal ammo depends on previous year(s) demand, and when something spikes interest in a formerly "moribund" round, such as use by a popular tv/movie character, existing supply can be gobbled up and a "shortage" results. We've seen this over and over in previous tmes, mostly with rifle rounds before there was any "election panic" or virus panic complicating the issue.

We see it most with the "obsolete" rifle rounds, because there are more of them, many go back to the black powder era, but there are also fairly recent ones that were not popular enough to stay in production. .

But it happens with pistol rounds too. Also happens with gun supply. WHY do you think there are price surges and scarcity with various gun models, especially discontinued ones? Because for years some barely sold enough to stay in production, or not enough to stay in production, then some movie star uses one in a hit film and then everyone has to have one.

One of the biggest and most famous examples of this is the S&W .44 Magnum. Since the late 50s they sold, in small numbers, steady enough, but nothing huge. Then in 1971, Clint Eastwood's Dirty Harry used it and made it "THE GUN" to have, and demand literally exploded overnight. By the mid 70s, the factory was still running more than 2 years backordered, and people were paying double MSRP just to get one in their hands, today.

The same applies to old calibers, when something puts them "back on the map". War anniversaries or a round hitting its centennial do this sometimes.

.45 Colt and .45-70 were still poking along sales wise, after production resumed following WWII, not a lot sold, but enough to keep them going, until 1973, when they turned 100 years old and got a lot of write ups about them, increasing interest and demand, back to or even exceeding their historical levels and continuing to this day.

The "feast or famine" cycle in ammo is the normal pattern with low popularity rounds. Today with the virtual feeding frenzy for any ammo in any caliber isn't going to change that. what it is going to do is extend the lean times , exponentially.

Armybrat · August 28, 2020, 02:39 PM

Besides the 9mm, I do have a good amount of .327 - 14 boxes of Federal AE (plus 400 rounds of .32 S&W long) to shoot through my SP101 and Single Seven.

BJung · August 28, 2020, 10:46 PM

I am limited on time and money. I worry about running out of ammo even though I don't shoot much. This is how I use my limited resources. First, I reload so I can have more ammo for the money and more accurate ammo. Like any tool, after the initial cost, it belongs to you for life ( you can't take it with you ). I hoard as much brass as I can and buy a HF tumbler to clean the brass. If possible, I'd buy bulk surplus powder from GIbrass and blemished bullets in bulk. If not, I'd buy by the pound and a box for testing. I cast now so I'll never run out of bullets. This leaves one main thing to buy, primers!

Cheapshooter · August 28, 2020, 11:16 PM

"They have ammo in that caliber, but I don't have a gun for it"
I've used weaker excuses to buy a new gun. Go for it!

Hal · August 29, 2020, 04:22 AM

Quote:

I’m surprised that foreign manufacturers of ammunition aren’t ramping up production for our domestic market. I would expect to see large amounts of Wolf and Tula.

I'm not sure anything much is coming across the borders as of yet.

We had to get some treated lumber deck boards to replace some damaged ones. We had to wait for a few days until a shipment came in to Menards.
Lowes, Home Depot and the local lumber yard had none & expected none to come in any time soon.
They blamed it on the US/Canada border being closed.
(didn't make sense to me since TSP is treated Southern Pine - but - who knows)

Tygus.Shooting · August 29, 2020, 11:23 PM

...whenever my supply of .40S&W, 9mm, or .45ACP starts to dwindle, I simply switch to my Kel-Tec PMR30 in .22 Magnum.

With two extra mags, the combination gives me a total of 91 rounds on tap, which makes up for any misgivings I may have about the diminutive caliber's effectiveness (!)

___________________________________

I love gun control. It lets me hit what I'm shooting at!

August 21, 2020, 08:23 AM	#28
Mystro Senior Member Join Date: November 26, 2004 Location: Central Pa. Posts: 1,528	I am finding that high end monolithic bullets that would never be sold on their own are starting to enter the consumer reloading market. This is showing that ammunition companies are being starved of their components as well and forced to sell what they can in this current market. __________________ "I'm a good guy with a gun" What do I care if I give up some freedom or rights?....The Goverment will take care of me. This kind of thinking is now in the majority and it should concern you. "Ask not what you can do for your country, but what free entitlements you can bleed from your country"

August 22, 2020, 12:05 PM	#31
44 AMP Staff Join Date: March 11, 2006 Location: Upper US Posts: 28,832	I have some pistols that have been totally unaffected by the current ammo shortage. They were also totally unaffected by the last ammo shortage. I can find exactly the same amount of ammo for them on the shelves as there has been for the past 40 years or so, everywhere I look, None. When I want ammo for them, I make it. And I have enough components to probably meet my needs for the next 20 years, which is likely as long as I'll be around to need them. Possibly longer than I will be around to need them... __________________ All else being equal (and it almost never is) bigger bullets tend to work better.

August 22, 2020, 03:20 PM	#32
wild cat mccane Senior Member Join Date: May 22, 2011 Posts: 3,626	Northrup owns the US defense contract for the private/public contract for US govt owned Lake City. They also own (Vista Outdoors) Federal and Speer/CCI. Remington just went under in Chapter 11 (again) and has closed ammo for now. Takes down Barnes and the other Freedom owned companies. While Hornady makes the FBI round now, if they switch to Vista's new 2019 G2 Gold Dot which performs better than the Critical Duty round, they kinda have nothing but specialty XTP loads. (think big buyers, no retail) Literally one company is producing almost all handgun ammo made in the US right now and also is the same one making most commercial bullets to load. So an alternative caliber isn't going to save you. There is no big company to make the bullets or load the rounds. Once those stocks dry up AND if 9mm is still surging, no way are we seeing more. Look at 357 market. Gonzo for over a month now. Totally gone. Last edited by wild cat mccane; August 23, 2020 at 10:53 AM.

August 27, 2020, 12:04 AM	#34
44 AMP Staff Join Date: March 11, 2006 Location: Upper US Posts: 28,832	The big problem, for those not reloading, is that while "alternate" calibers, meaning those rounds that are less popular, not service rounds, and including those that are semi-obsolete is, that while they may be the last thing you find on the shelf, they are also the last thing replaced. In general (and in "normal" times) the way the ammo manufacturers work is a combination of regular production (those rounds in high volume use) and "seasonal" production, which is those rounds with low demand that are only made once in a while. Now, seasonal doesn't mean every fall or at Christmas it means every few years, based on usual demand. When the warehouse stock level reaches a previously set "low" quantity, the factory tools up a production line and cranks out the seasonal round until their stock is back up to "full" then shuts it down, packs away the tooling and that line goes back to making the regular production rounds. How much of what they make as seasonal ammo depends on previous year(s) demand, and when something spikes interest in a formerly "moribund" round, such as use by a popular tv/movie character, existing supply can be gobbled up and a "shortage" results. We've seen this over and over in previous tmes, mostly with rifle rounds before there was any "election panic" or virus panic complicating the issue. We see it most with the "obsolete" rifle rounds, because there are more of them, many go back to the black powder era, but there are also fairly recent ones that were not popular enough to stay in production. . But it happens with pistol rounds too. Also happens with gun supply. WHY do you think there are price surges and scarcity with various gun models, especially discontinued ones? Because for years some barely sold enough to stay in production, or not enough to stay in production, then some movie star uses one in a hit film and then everyone has to have one. One of the biggest and most famous examples of this is the S&W .44 Magnum. Since the late 50s they sold, in small numbers, steady enough, but nothing huge. Then in 1971, Clint Eastwood's Dirty Harry used it and made it "THE GUN" to have, and demand literally exploded overnight. By the mid 70s, the factory was still running more than 2 years backordered, and people were paying double MSRP just to get one in their hands, today. The same applies to old calibers, when something puts them "back on the map". War anniversaries or a round hitting its centennial do this sometimes. .45 Colt and .45-70 were still poking along sales wise, after production resumed following WWII, not a lot sold, but enough to keep them going, until 1973, when they turned 100 years old and got a lot of write ups about them, increasing interest and demand, back to or even exceeding their historical levels and continuing to this day. The "feast or famine" cycle in ammo is the normal pattern with low popularity rounds. Today with the virtual feeding frenzy for any ammo in any caliber isn't going to change that. what it is going to do is extend the lean times , exponentially. __________________ All else being equal (and it almost never is) bigger bullets tend to work better.

August 28, 2020, 11:16 PM	#37
Cheapshooter Senior Member Join Date: December 2, 2007 Location: Missouri Posts: 8,306	"They have ammo in that caliber, but I don't have a gun for it" I've used weaker excuses to buy a new gun. Go for it! __________________ Cheapshooter's rules of gun ownership #1: NEVER SELL OR TRADE ANYTHING!

August 19, 2020, 07:14 PM	#26
44caliberkid Senior Member Join Date: May 15, 2017 Location: Iowa Posts: 1,102	I was surprised to see all the spam cans of 7.62x25 are sold out. I feel adequately armed with a Tok or a CZ52.

August 20, 2020, 07:45 PM	#27
Seven High Senior Member Join Date: December 11, 2004 Posts: 650	I’m surprised that foreign manufacturers of ammunition aren’t ramping up production for our domestic market. I would expect to see large amounts of Wolf and Tula.

August 21, 2020, 10:13 AM	#29
Jim Watson Senior Member Join Date: October 25, 2001 Location: Alabama Posts: 18,541	I do reload, I do compete, so my planning is about an order of magnitude higher than many here. I have enough powder and primers to last past the Inauguration Riots. I have bullets on order which I fondly hope will arrive sometime next month. Just to show how cyclic the business is, the last time I bought primers, Winchester was giving a 25% rebate. So I bought 15,000. But there was no HP38 or W231 to be had, so I bought Bullseye.

August 21, 2020, 01:14 PM	#30
TRX Senior Member Join Date: September 24, 2008 Location: central Arkansas Posts: 400	> When that 38 Super and 32 ammo is gone none of the manufacturers will produce any more until they get caught up on production of more common rounds. --- That's what happened to me when I bought a .50 Beowulf in 2008. It was almost a year before my back-ordered brass started coming in. I'd ordered from two different vendors that claimed it was "in stock"... While I understand no manufacturer wants unused capacity sitting around not making money, ammo and component supplies have been iffy ever since late 2001. The "our military contracts" and "election hoarding" excuses are getting pretty stale.

August 28, 2020, 02:39 PM	#35
Armybrat Senior Member Join Date: May 10, 2009 Location: Round Rock, Texas Posts: 976	Besides the 9mm, I do have a good amount of .327 - 14 boxes of Federal AE (plus 400 rounds of .32 S&W long) to shoot through my SP101 and Single Seven.

August 28, 2020, 10:46 PM	#36
BJung Senior Member Join Date: December 5, 2019 Posts: 773	I am limited on time and money. I worry about running out of ammo even though I don't shoot much. This is how I use my limited resources. First, I reload so I can have more ammo for the money and more accurate ammo. Like any tool, after the initial cost, it belongs to you for life ( you can't take it with you ). I hoard as much brass as I can and buy a HF tumbler to clean the brass. If possible, I'd buy bulk surplus powder from GIbrass and blemished bullets in bulk. If not, I'd buy by the pound and a box for testing. I cast now so I'll never run out of bullets. This leaves one main thing to buy, primers!

August 29, 2020, 11:23 PM	#39
Tygus.Shooting Member Join Date: August 16, 2020 Location: Victoria, Australia Posts: 30	I know I'm going to cop flack for this, but... ...whenever my supply of .40S&W, 9mm, or .45ACP starts to dwindle, I simply switch to my Kel-Tec PMR30 in .22 Magnum. With two extra mags, the combination gives me a total of 91 rounds on tap, which makes up for any misgivings I may have about the diminutive caliber's effectiveness (!) ___________________________________ I love gun control. It lets me hit what I'm shooting at!