This primer shortage

gunsrtools · November 16, 2020, 08:13 AM

I am just a bit curious as to why it appears that Canada does not seem to have been effected as much as the U.S. has on this issue.
If the shortage is world wide, then why when I go to several online retailers located in Canada
they seem to have primers in stock? Of course they cannot ship to the United States. So they are no resource for us.
But wouldn't you think if the situation is so dire, Canadian retailers would also be wiped out? It is the same manufacturers we are talking about. Are these primer manufacturers shipping to Canadian distributors but not to U.S. distributors?
it just does not make sense.

**Aguila Blanca** · November 16, 2020, 09:16 AM

How many reloaders do you think there are in Canada?

How many reloaders do you think there are in the United States?

gunsrtools · November 16, 2020, 09:34 AM

"How many reloaders do you think there are in Canada?"

more than you would think.

kahless5876 · November 16, 2020, 09:36 AM

Canadians aren't preparing for civil war either.

FITASC · November 16, 2020, 09:51 AM

What makes you think there is a worldwide shortage as opposed to only here where we have a $1,000,000,000 backlog.

higgite · November 16, 2020, 09:57 AM

Copied from a response to your same question that you posted on another forum. Makes the most sense to me.

Quote:

"Opinion" they did not have a huge surge of panic buying from 1. Riots 2. An upcoming election. They are missing key drivers for the huge demand we are seeing.

gunsrtools · November 16, 2020, 11:54 AM

The real question that I would like to know is:
Are the primer manufacturers continuing to ship to Canadian distributors while not shipping to US distributors at all?

hounddawg · November 16, 2020, 12:25 PM

they are getting shipped to US gun stores they are just being sold as fast as they hit the shelves and net by either by panic buyers or scalpers who are reselling them for triple or quadruple the amount they paid on the net or gun shows. The shortage will continue until the panic buyers stop paying the outrageous prices or internet dealers start putting stricter limits on amounts.

Just for the heck of it I have several internet sellers sending me notices of instock items. One sent me a notice of H4350 instock the other day, I logged in 12 minutes after the email was sent and they were sold out. I would not have purchased had it still been instock but that just goes to show how fast it is moving. You will probably see that H4350 being resold at gunshows for $100 or more a pound next week

higgite · November 16, 2020, 12:33 PM

Quote:

they are getting shipped to US gun stores they are just being sold as fast as they hit the shelves

It pays to have inside connections. I did once. It was short lived, but nice while it lasted.

T. O'Heir · November 16, 2020, 02:48 PM

"...more than you would think..." Yep. However, ya'll have over 300 million living there. We have about 38 million.
One local shop wants $5 to $8Cdn for 100 primers. Our idiot government has kept prices for all thing firearm related artificially high since we got fornicated by NAFTA. The only thing the Donald ever said that was remotely true about NAFTA was it was a bad deal. For Canada, not the US or Mexico.
"...the primer manufacturers..." Are likely closed due to the Covid Panic and aren't shipping anything. The assorted shipping companies aren't likely working either.

FoghornLeghorn · November 16, 2020, 04:16 PM

Quote:

scalpers who are reselling them for triple or quadruple the amount they paid

Funny you should say that.

https://thefiringline.com/forums/sho...d.php?t=609162

pete2 · November 16, 2020, 04:33 PM

The shortage is continuing because of the election. If Biden is confirmed it may last a long time. Same same happened during Obama for a while.

5whiskey · November 18, 2020, 04:11 AM

And it sucks because primers go fast. I had a good stock of everything but SRP, and I don’t shoot ammo using that much anymore anyway. Alas I’ve gone through nearly 30% of my small pistol stash the past 3 months. Granted I got home from a year long deployment and have been obsessive about increasing my supply of loaded rounds. Still though, this s making me nervous some.

**Unclenick** · November 18, 2020, 11:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gunsrtools

Are the primer manufacturers continuing to ship to Canadian distributors while not shipping to US distributors at all?

They are shipping all the primers to ammunition manufacturers. I've read in three places now that because the US has had panic buying of guns, there are now a few million first-time gun owners buying and stocking loaded ammunition, so demand is higher than normal. Additionally, COVID-19 has interfered with the import sources of ammunition that usually handle more of the market, so there is less supply than normal. Loaded ammo is more profitable than reloading components and also there are contractual obligations for priority delivery of primers to ammunition makers. So we'll have to wait for ammo demand to decline or for COVID-19 to come under control to see primers back on the shelves in normal quantities.

According to Forbes magazine, a primer line is an expensive investment and takes a year to a year and a half to build, so if anyone is adding capacity (and that article suggests they are not, as there isn't confidence that the panic buying will continue long enough to justify it), it won't be apparent for awhile yet.

The Canadians appear simply not have consumed their old stock completely. This place shows some CCI and Federal numbers out of stock, so they will run dry on US brands, too, with enough time.

seanc · November 19, 2020, 04:18 PM

Smaller manufacturers/remanufacturers are getting small pistol primers now. I agree that manufacturers will continue to be the primary recipients and until they get caught up, we're going to have to bide our time. Hopefully, by summer 2021, we'll see primer components available again. I think it depends on how aggressive the Biden administration comes in vis-a-vis the 2nd Amendment. If they come in hot, expect the ammo panic level to go to 11. By January, we should start seeing FMJ rounds starting to be produced in numbers. Right now, every precious primer is stoking a premium HP.

RC20 · November 19, 2020, 09:27 PM

Quote:

So we'll have to wait for ammo demand to decline or for COVID-19 to come under control to see primers back on the shelves in normal quantities.

Sadly I think panic is the new norm.

Apparently gun shortage is due to (ahem) the other side buying guns now.

Then Jan 20th it flips back. Next will be Space Alien invasions I suspect. Logic has nothign to do with it (hint, the Supremes are locked and loaded!)

If we are lucky we will get a calm in between and we can stock up. I did, I have enough powder to blow the house to hell and back. I don't like it, but I can piss and moan or deal with reality.

edfardos · November 20, 2020, 08:27 AM

Government gets first dibs, feds, then LEO. they're more important than you are. you are not essential. that drives markets and prices on the streets. make friends with LEO's. they often can get you free range brass! CHP shoots remington golden saber, nickle cases. great stuff.

Colorado Redneck · November 20, 2020, 01:41 PM

https://www.powdervalleyinc.com/why-...pply-shortage/

hounddawg · November 20, 2020, 03:04 PM

I was in the vicinity of a Sportsmans Warehouse earlier so I stopped in to check and see what what they had. Good supply of loaded ammo, lots of bullets and a fair supply of powders. No primers though, asked one of the people on floor when to expect any and he was clueless. I picked up a pound of H4831SC just cause I just finished off a 1 pounder, left 2 more 1 pounders sitting on the shelf. Still not as bad as 2008/2009 in my opinion other than primers

**Unclenick** · November 20, 2020, 03:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by edfardps

Government gets first dibs, feds, then LEO…

That's usually written into contracts, but it doesn't explain the shortage. In a typical year in this country, government consumes about 10% of the ammunition, while private citizens consume about 90% of it. I have seen a 2:1 range of statements about the size of the market, but the bottom line is the various government entities are minority consumers. They can cause short delays, as when the military replenishes its stockpiles (happened about 2009, IIRC; about 4 billion rounds) but in a 10-15 billion round market, that's a delay in months not years, and only of domestic ammunition, not all the imports. Right now, the COVID-19 induced reduction in imports is the second piece of the equation.

littlebikerider · November 20, 2020, 04:10 PM

As of this morning, Scheel's in Springfield IL had about a dozen boxes of CCI Large Pistol Primers for $59.99/1000.

November 16, 2020, 08:13 AM	#1
gunsrtools Senior Member Join Date: July 5, 2008 Location: New Hampshire Posts: 116	This primer shortage I am just a bit curious as to why it appears that Canada does not seem to have been effected as much as the U.S. has on this issue. If the shortage is world wide, then why when I go to several online retailers located in Canada they seem to have primers in stock? Of course they cannot ship to the United States. So they are no resource for us. But wouldn't you think if the situation is so dire, Canadian retailers would also be wiped out? It is the same manufacturers we are talking about. Are these primer manufacturers shipping to Canadian distributors but not to U.S. distributors? it just does not make sense. __________________ Bob ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ

November 16, 2020, 09:16 AM	#2
Aguila Blanca Staff Join Date: September 25, 2008 Location: CONUS Posts: 18,468	How many reloaders do you think there are in Canada? How many reloaders do you think there are in the United States? __________________ NRA Life Member / Certified Instructor NRA Chief RSO / CMP RSO 1911 Certified Armorer Jeepaholic

November 16, 2020, 09:34 AM	#3
gunsrtools Senior Member Join Date: July 5, 2008 Location: New Hampshire Posts: 116	"How many reloaders do you think there are in Canada?" more than you would think. __________________ Bob ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ

November 16, 2020, 09:51 AM	#5
FITASC Senior Member Join Date: December 6, 2014 Posts: 6,446	What makes you think there is a worldwide shortage as opposed to only here where we have a $1,000,000,000 backlog. __________________ "I believe that people have a right to decide their own destinies; people own themselves. I also believe that, in a democracy, government exists because (and only so long as) individual citizens give it a 'temporary license to exist'—in exchange for a promise that it will behave itself. In a democracy, you own the government—it doesn't own you."- Frank Zappa

November 16, 2020, 11:54 AM	#7
gunsrtools Senior Member Join Date: July 5, 2008 Location: New Hampshire Posts: 116	The real question that I would like to know is: Are the primer manufacturers continuing to ship to Canadian distributors while not shipping to US distributors at all? __________________ Bob ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ

November 16, 2020, 09:36 AM	#4
kahless5876 Junior Member Join Date: January 8, 2016 Posts: 8	Canadians aren't preparing for civil war either.

November 16, 2020, 12:25 PM	#8
hounddawg Senior Member Join Date: March 1, 2009 Posts: 4,232	they are getting shipped to US gun stores they are just being sold as fast as they hit the shelves and net by either by panic buyers or scalpers who are reselling them for triple or quadruple the amount they paid on the net or gun shows. The shortage will continue until the panic buyers stop paying the outrageous prices or internet dealers start putting stricter limits on amounts. Just for the heck of it I have several internet sellers sending me notices of instock items. One sent me a notice of H4350 instock the other day, I logged in 12 minutes after the email was sent and they were sold out. I would not have purchased had it still been instock but that just goes to show how fast it is moving. You will probably see that H4350 being resold at gunshows for $100 or more a pound next week __________________ “How do I get to the next level?” Well, you get to the next level by being the first one on the range and the last one to leave.” – Jerry Miculek

November 16, 2020, 02:48 PM	#10
T. O'Heir Senior Member Join Date: February 13, 2002 Location: Canada Posts: 12,453	"...more than you would think..." Yep. However, ya'll have over 300 million living there. We have about 38 million. One local shop wants $5 to $8Cdn for 100 primers. Our idiot government has kept prices for all thing firearm related artificially high since we got fornicated by NAFTA. The only thing the Donald ever said that was remotely true about NAFTA was it was a bad deal. For Canada, not the US or Mexico. "...the primer manufacturers..." Are likely closed due to the Covid Panic and aren't shipping anything. The assorted shipping companies aren't likely working either. __________________ Spelling and grammar count!

November 16, 2020, 04:33 PM	#12
pete2 Senior Member Join Date: May 15, 2012 Location: Texas Posts: 2,566	The shortage is continuing because of the election. If Biden is confirmed it may last a long time. Same same happened during Obama for a while.

November 18, 2020, 04:11 AM	#13
5whiskey Senior Member Join Date: October 23, 2005 Location: US Posts: 3,657	And it sucks because primers go fast. I had a good stock of everything but SRP, and I don’t shoot ammo using that much anymore anyway. Alas I’ve gone through nearly 30% of my small pistol stash the past 3 months. Granted I got home from a year long deployment and have been obsessive about increasing my supply of loaded rounds. Still though, this s making me nervous some. __________________ Support the NRA-ILA Auction, ends 03/09/2018 https://thefiringline.com/forums/sho...d.php?t=593946

November 19, 2020, 04:18 PM	#15
seanc Senior Member Join Date: December 28, 1998 Posts: 590	Smaller manufacturers/remanufacturers are getting small pistol primers now. I agree that manufacturers will continue to be the primary recipients and until they get caught up, we're going to have to bide our time. Hopefully, by summer 2021, we'll see primer components available again. I think it depends on how aggressive the Biden administration comes in vis-a-vis the 2nd Amendment. If they come in hot, expect the ammo panic level to go to 11. By January, we should start seeing FMJ rounds starting to be produced in numbers. Right now, every precious primer is stoking a premium HP.

November 20, 2020, 08:27 AM	#17
edfardos Member Join Date: April 4, 2016 Posts: 84	Government gets first dibs, feds, then LEO. they're more important than you are. you are not essential. that drives markets and prices on the streets. make friends with LEO's. they often can get you free range brass! CHP shoots remington golden saber, nickle cases. great stuff.

November 20, 2020, 01:41 PM	#18
Colorado Redneck Senior Member Join Date: January 6, 2008 Location: Northeast Colorado Posts: 1,993	Info about current primer shortage https://www.powdervalleyinc.com/why-...pply-shortage/

November 20, 2020, 03:04 PM	#19
hounddawg Senior Member Join Date: March 1, 2009 Posts: 4,232	I was in the vicinity of a Sportsmans Warehouse earlier so I stopped in to check and see what what they had. Good supply of loaded ammo, lots of bullets and a fair supply of powders. No primers though, asked one of the people on floor when to expect any and he was clueless. I picked up a pound of H4831SC just cause I just finished off a 1 pounder, left 2 more 1 pounders sitting on the shelf. Still not as bad as 2008/2009 in my opinion other than primers __________________ “How do I get to the next level?” Well, you get to the next level by being the first one on the range and the last one to leave.” – Jerry Miculek

November 20, 2020, 04:10 PM	#21
littlebikerider Senior Member Join Date: September 10, 2018 Posts: 131	As of this morning, Scheel's in Springfield IL had about a dozen boxes of CCI Large Pistol Primers for $59.99/1000.