The Firing Line Forums

Go Back   The Firing Line Forums > Hogan's Alley > Handguns: The Semi-automatic Forum

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old October 19, 2019, 08:17 AM   #176
nanney1
Senior Member
 
Join Date: November 24, 2017
Posts: 225
Quote:
Originally Posted by Catchabullet View Post
Aren’t a lot of competition shooters using 40 to make power factor?
Every time I go to shoot USPSA, plenty of shooters in Limited class using .40 S&W pistols to make major power factor.
nanney1 is offline  
Old October 19, 2019, 06:59 PM   #177
Alert
Senior Member
 
Join Date: July 8, 2007
Location: Mobile, Alabama
Posts: 203
I just fairly recently got a Glock model 22 and two 22 round Glock magazines at a deal I couldn’t pass up
__________________
"One man with courage makes a majority" Andrew Jackson
Alert is offline  
Old October 19, 2019, 11:15 PM   #178
JohnKSa
Staff
 
Join Date: February 12, 2001
Location: DFW Area
Posts: 22,566
Quote:
You keep saying that compared to all the recorded shootings, there is no detectable difference. An important point is that of all those recorded shootings, "the data" isn't necessarily great. This massive body of evidence you keep referring to is not uniform and is much more sparse on accurate details than I think you might be taking it to be.

One feature of that is that two important subclasses of shootings I've discussed are not readily isolable from that body of existing data. The first is statistics for all non-vital hits that stopped an attack, including location of the shot, how long it took, etc. Do we even have those numbers available to talk about? (This is why I've had to discuss it in terms of logical assumption and thought experiment, as opposed to probability from existing statistics.)
These are all just reasons for why no one can prove the difference exists. Again, if it's so hard to show that it exists that no one can do it (regardless of the many reasons why that might be true) how can it be practically significant?

By definition, if it made a practically significant, people would be able to detect a difference in outcomes of real-world gunfights. The inability to detect that it makes a difference is exactly equivalent to saying that it doesn't make a practically significant difference.
Quote:
The second is the subclass of shootings where your trade-off costs in speed and accuracy are rendered meaningless by distance or entanglement. For instance, assuming that you lose enough speed and accuracy on a particular platform between 9mm and .40 S&W to be significant in the first place, that will only apply to those situations in which that difference contributes to the outcome. For instance, it could matter under a bunch of conditions such as an attacker charging you from seven yards, defending yourself around the isles of a convenience store, etc. However, it is unlikely to matter under conditions of very close attackers, entangled fights, etc.
Yes, there are clearly gunfights where speed and accuracy don't matter. If you're rolling around on the ground fighting with someone, recoil recovery and accuracy probably won't play a decisive part in the outcome. Capacity still might, however.

I suppose it is possible to construct a reasonable argument that there are some gunfights in which nothing related to caliber choice within the service pistol class matters at all. That's worth thinking about, but I don't see how such an argument could be used to build up one caliber in the class at the expense of another--or to try to make the point that one is obviously inferior given that the premise is that in certain cases nothing about caliber choice makes any difference at all. i.e. That they all provide exactly the same level of effectiveness (or ineffectiveness) in certain cases.
__________________
Do you know about the TEXAS State Rifle Association?
JohnKSa is offline  
Old October 20, 2019, 07:49 AM   #179
amd6547
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 27, 2006
Posts: 2,201
I don’t care if the one shot effectiveness is improved by one tenth one percent...I’ll take it.
__________________
The past is gone...the future may never happen.
Be Here Now.
amd6547 is offline  
Old October 20, 2019, 08:14 AM   #180
Cosmodragoon
Senior Member
 
Join Date: March 18, 2013
Location: Northeastern US
Posts: 1,651
Quote:
JohnKSa wrote:

These are all just reasons for why no one can prove the difference exists. Again, if it's so hard to show that it exists that no one can do it (regardless of the many reasons why that might be true) how can it be practically significant?
I have illustrated how it could be practically significant, in some particular types of cases. That's the key here.

The point is that (1) the argument that there is definitely no difference in all cases is dubious and (2) cannot be adequately supported by the existing evidence.

I think it is safe to say that choice in mainstream defensive caliber for handguns won't make much difference in a lot of cases. "Most" could be argued. Just be wary of "all".

By that same token, I don't think there is a blanket "best" choice that applies universally for everyone in every situation. I think some choices will be better for certain people under certain conditions in certain types of situation. So we get to think about our individual circumstances and make some bets based on our understanding of the probabilities. That's really what we are doing for any kind of preparedness.
Cosmodragoon is offline  
Old October 20, 2019, 08:27 AM   #181
TunnelRat
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 22, 2011
Posts: 9,722
Quote:
Originally Posted by amd6547 View Post
I don’t care if the one shot effectiveness is improved by one tenth one percent...I’ll take it.
Then why not step up to 10mm or 460 Rowland?

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
TunnelRat is offline  
Old October 20, 2019, 09:04 AM   #182
cslinger
Senior Member
 
Join Date: July 14, 2002
Location: Nashville, TN
Posts: 1,675
Quote:
Then why not step up to 10mm or 460 Rowland?
I am now picturing two dudes rolling on the ground fighting when one lets off a short barrel .500 magnum or .460. The round misses......yet both get up shake hands and walk away deaf and blind and possibly smoldering
__________________
"Is there anyway I can write my local gun store off on my taxes as dependents?"
cslinger is offline  
Old October 20, 2019, 09:37 AM   #183
Nanuk
Senior Member
 
Join Date: January 2, 2005
Location: Where the deer and the antelope roam.
Posts: 2,678
Quote:
Then why not step up to 10mm or 460 Rowland?
Sometimes I carry a 44 magnum snubby with hot 180grn or 200grn JHP's does that count?
__________________
Retired Law Enforcement
U. S. Army Veteran
Armorer
My rifle and pistol are tools, I am the weapon.
Nanuk is offline  
Old October 20, 2019, 09:47 AM   #184
TunnelRat
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 22, 2011
Posts: 9,722
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nanuk View Post
Sometimes I carry a 44 magnum snubby with hot 180grn or 200grn JHP's does that count?
Well you're not the person I was quoting but sure it counts for you.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
TunnelRat is offline  
Old October 20, 2019, 02:13 PM   #185
JohnKSa
Staff
 
Join Date: February 12, 2001
Location: DFW Area
Posts: 22,566
Quote:
I don’t care if the one shot effectiveness is improved by one tenth one percent...I’ll take it.
That would make sense if there were absolutely no other variables affected by the choice. But taking a 0.1% advantage that costs you 10% in terms of accuracy and speed combined would be a truly terrible tradeoff.
Quote:
I have illustrated how it could be practically significant, in some particular types of cases.
To be more accurate, you provided some rationale why the difference might be undetectable.

That's neither equivalent to showing that it IS practically significant, nor does it explain how something undetectable can be practically significant. I would also say it's not really relevant.

WHY you can't detect it (or why it's hard to detect) doesn't affect the core issue.

If the difference is practically significant then it should make a detectable difference in real-world gunfights. That's a painfully simple concept--it's essentially a tautology. If it makes a detectable difference then it makes a detectable difference.

The converse is also true and also similarly simple. If it is undetectable in real-world gunfights (regardless of why it's undetectable) then it can't be a practically significant difference since practical significance is, by definition, making a difference in real-world gunfights. Again, a tautology: If it doesn't make a difference then it doesn't make a difference.
__________________
Do you know about the TEXAS State Rifle Association?
JohnKSa is offline  
Old October 20, 2019, 05:25 PM   #186
Cosmodragoon
Senior Member
 
Join Date: March 18, 2013
Location: Northeastern US
Posts: 1,651
Quote:
To be more accurate, you provided some rationale why the difference might be undetectable.
JohnKSa, this has been a long conversation. That's true for my last couple posts. I'm talking about earlier when I discussed the possibility of non-vital hits to bone, muscle, connective tissue etc. where differences in destructive capabilities might come into play. This also overlaps with entangled fights where getting a shot into someone's arm, shoulder, thigh, pelvic girdle, etc. might be your only hope. That was part of the non-isolable data.

Quote:
Then why not step up to 10mm or 460 Rowland?
TunnelRat, this is part of the same reason that people tend to carry small CCW guns instead of full-sized service pistols. There are limits to what people can comfortably carry around all day, every day. Guns in 10mm or any of the .45-caliber cartridges tend to be larger.

A major claim for .40 S&W was that it could be had on the same frame as 9mm. I think that's fine when people are talking about full-sized service guns. When we drop down to small CCW guns, notice how many more people start complaining about snappy recoil. I imagine that would be much more pronounced with "compact" 10mm, .45 super, etc.

Even when we drop needs like concealment, there are practical limits to what a lot of people will choose to carry. For instance, let's consider woods carry in cases where the handgun isn't being used as a primary hunting tool. Then let's think about steel revolvers, where both power and weight can really get up there. I could tote around an XVR but I don't. I tend to cap out on an N-frame or Redhawk with six inches of barrel. Even then, I'd be more likely to choose an L-frame, GP-100, or a polymer semi-auto in 10mm.
Cosmodragoon is offline  
Old October 20, 2019, 05:54 PM   #187
amd6547
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 27, 2006
Posts: 2,201
I just don’t see any difference for me shooting my Gen3 G17 with the +P or +P+ ammo I use and my recently acquired Gen4 G22. Same-same for me.
I happen to like that 180gn HST .40 at 1000fps.
I’ve been shooting 9mm in various platforms since before there was a .40, or even 10mm. I like 9mm just fine.
__________________
The past is gone...the future may never happen.
Be Here Now.
amd6547 is offline  
Old October 20, 2019, 10:08 PM   #188
JohnKSa
Staff
 
Join Date: February 12, 2001
Location: DFW Area
Posts: 22,566
Quote:
JohnKSa, this has been a long conversation. That's true for my last couple posts. I'm talking about earlier when I discussed the possibility of non-vital hits to bone, muscle, connective tissue etc. where differences in destructive capabilities might come into play. This also overlaps with entangled fights where getting a shot into someone's arm, shoulder, thigh, pelvic girdle, etc. might be your only hope. That was part of the non-isolable data.
As you say, it is a long conversation. I confess that I am not re-reading the entire thread each time I respond to someone to ensure that my responses cover all of the posts that person has made so far in the thread.

Here is the response I made to your initial comment about circumstances where it "might make a difference".

"If there were such a difference and if it were practically significant, how could it be undetectable?"
__________________
Do you know about the TEXAS State Rifle Association?
JohnKSa is offline  
Old October 20, 2019, 10:42 PM   #189
Cosmodragoon
Senior Member
 
Join Date: March 18, 2013
Location: Northeastern US
Posts: 1,651
Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnKSa View Post
... Here is the response I made to your initial comment about circumstances where it "might make a difference".

"If there were such a difference and if it were practically significant, how could it be undetectable?"
... and the answer to that question is the data problems I discussed. For instance, can anyone accurately isolate defensive shootings involving shots to areas which were non-vital but still still stopped the attack, and reference by those which involved entangled fights or point-blank shootings?
Cosmodragoon is offline  
Old October 20, 2019, 10:55 PM   #190
TunnelRat
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 22, 2011
Posts: 9,722
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cosmodragoon View Post



TunnelRat, this is part of the same reason that people tend to carry small CCW guns instead of full-sized service pistols. There are limits to what people can comfortably carry around all day, every day. Guns in 10mm or any of the .45-caliber cartridges tend to be larger.



A major claim for .40 S&W was that it could be had on the same frame as 9mm. I think that's fine when people are talking about full-sized service guns. When we drop down to small CCW guns, notice how many more people start complaining about snappy recoil. I imagine that would be much more pronounced with "compact" 10mm, .45 super, etc.



Even when we drop needs like concealment, there are practical limits to what a lot of people will choose to carry. For instance, let's consider woods carry in cases where the handgun isn't being used as a primary hunting tool. Then let's think about steel revolvers, where both power and weight can really get up there. I could tote around an XVR but I don't. I tend to cap out on an N-frame or Redhawk with six inches of barrel. Even then, I'd be more likely to choose an L-frame, GP-100, or a polymer semi-auto in 10mm.
Yeah I know, it was said tongue in cheek. I started out carrying a Model 19. I have no desire to go back there. My point was we all make trade offs, whether we admit it to ourselves or not.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
TunnelRat is offline  
Old Yesterday, 12:48 AM   #191
JohnKSa
Staff
 
Join Date: February 12, 2001
Location: DFW Area
Posts: 22,566
Quote:
... and the answer to that question is the data problems I discussed.
These things are only "problems" if one refuses to accept the fact that there is no evidence that terminal effect differences in the service pistol performance class results in a detectable effect on real-world gunfights and continues to operate under the unshakeable assumption that there is a detectable effect.

"Data problems" is just a creative way to indicate that there's a conflict between opinion and reality.
Quote:
For instance, can anyone accurately isolate defensive shootings involving shots to areas which were non-vital but still still stopped the attack, and reference by those which involved entangled fights or point-blank shootings?
This is all needlessly complicating something that's very simple. There are two cases. One simple, one even simpler.

If it makes a detectable difference then there is a detectable advantage, perhaps one that is practically significant, and we can talk about that advantage and how valuable it is or isn't. If anyone has any evidence that terminal performance differences within the service pistol class make a detectable difference in real-world gunfights, let's look at it and discuss it. If there isn't, as we all know is the case, then that gets us to the other even simpler case.

If the difference isn't detectable then it can't possibly provide a detectable advantage, it clearly makes no practically significant difference, and there's no need to contemplate all the reasons why it isn't detectable (nor is there any point in dong so), nor any need to wonder why it might be hard to detect. It becomes moot to try to separate shootings into classes where it might make a difference that still isn't detectable or ones where it obviously doesn't make a difference.
__________________
Do you know about the TEXAS State Rifle Association?
JohnKSa is offline  
Old Yesterday, 04:30 PM   #192
Forte S+W
Member
 
Join Date: October 12, 2019
Posts: 31
So, in conclusion... .40 S&W really isn't going anywhere, because it's just as good as 9mm Luger in terms of ballistics, but is a larger diameter bullet which also expands to larger diameter, and arguably punches through solid objects better, thus leaving it with no crippling disadvantages?

Honestly, I'm not exactly sure where this argument is going, but so far it really hasn't provided any reason why the .40 S&W would fade away into obscurity, unless the point of the argument is to illustrate the flawed logic that a cartridge which performs equally as well as a time-proven, world-renowned service cartridge has no redeeming qualities.

Bottom line, even if the .40 S&W has no tangible benefit over the 9mm Luger, that hardly indicates that .40 S&W will be disappearing anytime soon, especially in a market in which many cartridges aren't any better than onthers, with some newer cartridges actively seeking to do nothing more than equal the performance of other time-proven cartridges.
Forte S+W is offline  
Old Yesterday, 05:25 PM   #193
MTT TL
Senior Member
 
Join Date: October 21, 2009
Location: Quadling Country
Posts: 2,572
I'm not sure exactly but John keeps saying something about a difference in terminal ballistics not being detectable. If only we had a few more posts about that.
__________________
Thus a man should endeavor to reach this high place of courage with all his heart, and, so trying, never be backward in war.
MTT TL is offline  
Old Yesterday, 05:30 PM   #194
fastbolt
Senior Member
 
Join Date: June 9, 2002
Location: northern CA for a little while longer
Posts: 1,835
You know, sometimes the attributes of any particular caliber might offer a "sweet spot" that's desirable for a particular user/owner.

I remember attending some training where the instructor worked somewhere in the Northeast (USA). When the subject of duty caliber usage came up, he at one point he mentioned that his agency had recently changed from .45ACP to .40 S&W.

He said that review of OIS incidents in their area had eventually revealed that when suspects were wearing layers of heavy winter clothing the .40 JHP had been observed to demonstrate better "performance" in stopping the threats than the .45ACP JHP. They "liked" the results with the .40 better than with that of their former choice of .45. I think he mentioned the .40 seemed less likely to plug the nose cavity after defeating so many layers of heavy clothing, in actual shootings, too.

We didn't get into the specifics of the brand or bullet weight, as it wasn't something that seemed surprising to the cops in the training, and most of us were constrained to carry issued guns/ammo on-duty, anyway. Just one of those interesting bits of shared trivia you can find in most training that involves cops from all over.
__________________
Retired LE - firearms instructor & armorer
fastbolt is offline  
Old Today, 12:23 AM   #195
Snuffy308
Senior Member
 
Join Date: October 3, 2005
Posts: 190
Quote:
Originally Posted by MTT TL View Post
I'm not sure exactly but John keeps saying something about a difference in terminal ballistics not being detectable. If only we had a few more posts about that.
Snuffy308 is offline  
Old Today, 01:56 AM   #196
fastbolt
Senior Member
 
Join Date: June 9, 2002
Location: northern CA for a little while longer
Posts: 1,835
Quote:
Originally Posted by MTT TL View Post
I'm not sure exactly but John keeps saying something about a difference in terminal ballistics not being detectable. If only we had a few more posts about that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnKSa View Post
... If anyone has any evidence that terminal performance differences within the service pistol class make a detectable difference in real-world gunfights, let's look at it and discuss it. If there isn't, as we all know is the case, then that gets us to the other even simpler case.
...
Seems pretty simple when you consider that very small differences that can sometimes be detected in a carefully controlled lab testing scenario aren't being reported as something that's "detectable" in actual OIS incidents outside the lab.

Yes, back in '89 it was proposed that even a small possible "advantage" of a 1% difference might be useful, sometime, somewhere, in some incident, and if it was, then it was worth it. Just in case.

However, I'd rather work on improving, increasing and maintaining shooter skills and the ability to function under duress, myself, as those qualities are usually reported to matter more often in street conditions outside the lab.

Folks, a "miss" of several inches may easily make moot a 1% larger expanded diameter. If you can't put it where it matters most, does it matter in the right way?

Being able to avoid freezing at the wrong moment, or getting stuck too long in the Observe part of the OODA Loop, or going "blank" and being unable to draw upon skills because they aren't sufficiently ingrained and properly practiced, etc, etc. All these things, and more, may likely be more critical to being able to do the right thing, at the right moment, in the right way ... than obsessing and worrying over perceived caliber nuances which might not ever be consistently detectable outside of a lab.

Remember, the same guy who said back in '89 that a theoretically potential 1% advantage may be a good thing also said that it's counter productive to ignore either lab or street results, but to carefully consider info obtained from both in order to try and make informed choices.

So ... a difference may be detectable in the lab, but not in the street. What's the boggle?
__________________
Retired LE - firearms instructor & armorer
fastbolt is offline  
Old Today, 03:37 AM   #197
PatientWolf
Senior Member
 
Join Date: October 20, 2012
Location: NC
Posts: 843
In the two sentence OP, I must have missed the part that asked which cartridge is better. I only saw where it asked if the .40 was going away, and to that I would say the answer is no. I don’t see anyone throwing away .40 pistols.
PatientWolf is offline  
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 04:13 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
This site and contents, including all posts, Copyright © 1998-2018 S.W.A.T. Magazine
Copyright Complaints: Please direct DMCA Takedown Notices to the registered agent: thefiringline.com
Contact Us
Page generated in 0.10087 seconds with 9 queries