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September 5, 2007, 05:21 PM | #51 | ||
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September 5, 2007, 07:43 PM | #52 | |
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Probabilities and percentages are a must for Texas Holdem or the stock market. If your wrong you lose money. In a criminal scenario its death. That raises the odds in my book well beyond anything that the FBI's uniformed crime report stats indicate. That might be hard for some internet forensic gunfight analyst to understand but it is the real world. |
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September 5, 2007, 07:47 PM | #53 |
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I get it, only play the odds in poker or the stock market, if your life is at risk do whatever you feel like and ignore the odds.
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September 6, 2007, 11:59 AM | #54 | |
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Odds when they relate to life and death aren't the same. If 10 armed men in a room were told that one might die if no action is taken or two might die if action is taken what do you do? Since death is final I believe I have to act despite the increase in danger doing so. Precisely the reason I carry. So that I can determine my fate not some scumbag. |
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September 6, 2007, 03:04 PM | #55 |
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You are well within your rights to act in an illogical and counterproductive way. I know people who will drive 30minutes out of the way because they want to avoid a 15 minute traffic jam. It's the same thing. To some people control is more important than life itself.
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September 6, 2007, 07:14 PM | #56 | |
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Both are wrong. My training guarantees a fighting chance and being in control. Playing the odds guarantees nothing. |
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September 7, 2007, 09:12 AM | #57 |
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The odds are just information as to likely outcome. The point is that one should know that some situations are better not escalated. You have to make the final call but it is better to know what happens and when then not.
Simple point.
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September 7, 2007, 09:33 AM | #58 | |
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September 7, 2007, 11:03 AM | #59 | |
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September 7, 2007, 11:17 AM | #60 |
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Maybe all you guys just over-analyze stuff. I seriously doubt very many people think along these lines when confronted with a possibly lethal situation. At that time, either training or instinct rules.
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September 7, 2007, 12:24 PM | #61 |
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Oh, Lurper - I'm just arguing for knowning the facts. I don't disparage a reasoned choice. I just don't respect the view that the facts are irrelevant which is the flavor of some.
For the record, at the NTI: 1. One year, a dude ran in and shot the banker. I was meek. He shot me on the way out. 2. This year, nut runs in and shoots the judge - I try a disarm - criticized for doing that. He was going to just run out (well, how did I know that - last time I was shot) 3. Guy with gun starts to rob a store - I challenge, we get into gun fight. I shoot him. Well, I should have stayed low and let him leave. I said, he had a gun and I couldn't trust him to be rational. I've been all over the place on judging actions. I just argue for knowing the typical pattern as useful info. That's my simple point.
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September 7, 2007, 12:47 PM | #62 | ||||||
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September 7, 2007, 02:13 PM | #63 | ||
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The problem is that they aren't really facts, they are statistics. The key element that cannot be factored in is the human element. Even though many therapists want to say that past behavior is the best indicator of future behavior, that is not true. If it were - once a junkie always a junkie, once a thief always a thief. As it applies to this topic, that means just because the BG didn't kill/injure his last victim bears no relevance to what he will do this time. I am not dismissing the fact that your actions may induce an outcome that would not have happened otherwise. What I am saying is that there are no facts that can tell you as a victim in the moment the incident occurs who is more likely to kill you or not. Thinking that there is is a recipe for disaster imo. Therefore, since it may be my last stand, I will decide what action I take.
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There is no false bravado or Ramboism to that statement. Visualizing yourself as victorious in situations like this is a positive action. Would you rather someone see themselves as a victim? Seeing yourself as a winner, you will be much more likely to act decisively than if you don't. |
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September 7, 2007, 02:39 PM | #64 |
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A more realistic mindset would be: "If I am presented with the opportunity to escape, I will take it. When that option is removed, I will fight with every fiber of my being and will not give up until I have taken my last breath."
No, a more realistic mindset is: 1. If I can escape I will 2. In certain instances, the crime will go down and no one will be hurt. 3. I have to evaluate if this is the case here before I start the gun fight. 4. If I think that it will progress to people being hurt (me or the ones I care about), then I take action. Not knowing that a pattern of crimes usually end without someone being hurt is again ignoring knowledge. Saying it is statistics and not facts really doesn't mean anything. I'm not in the mood for a behavior prediction lecture but are arguing like the following. Cigarettes cause health problems in most people, however some people don't have those problems. Thus, knowing that smoking may predict health problems in most but not all is useless and you will smoke. Maybe not a perfect analogy but close. Are you better off knowing that bank robberies usually don't end with violence so that you don't automatically start a gun fight that might go badly. Might be statistically of interest that a percent of robberies have a backup unknown to you, so that if start the gun fight, surprise! About looking down the muzzle of a gun and the odds meaning nothing: 1. Bank robberies usually go well. You see the gun and you let it go down. I think that only 4% have violence. 2. You look at the muzzle of the gun and draw your gun - what's the comparable odds of that going well? We all make our choices. Arguing for the automatic gun fight as compared to the reasoned gun fight is a style you will have to choose.
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September 7, 2007, 02:41 PM | #65 |
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I think the most efective way to get your point accross that you're not scared to pull the trigger is to drop the mag, and chuck it at the BG.
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September 7, 2007, 03:59 PM | #66 | ||
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I never advocated "automatically" starting a gunfight. What I am saying is you can cite all the statistics in the world, but in the situation you have no way of knowing whether your assailant is in the minority or the majority as far as resulting to violence goes. You also cannot relate his past behavior in terms of violence to this particular incident because a whole new set of variables is introduced. In short you don't know what he is going to do! We agree on a lot of things, but I think saying that classifying this stuff as "information" that should be considered when making a life or death decision is a stretch. IMO, the only information that should be considered is the situational information and the knowledge of your own ability.
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I'm not arguing that you should automatically start a gun fight. I am certainly not arguing that you should submit to the BG's wil. What I am saying is that the decision should be situationally based, not statistically based. |
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September 7, 2007, 04:01 PM | #67 | |
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Someone said that I shouldn't start a gun fight with an armed bad guy who has yet to display violent behavior because stats say they won't. I disagree because, as stated by Lurper, humans are unpredictable and because death unlike poker is final. So being wrong is not an option. Should I pass on an opportunity to end the threat simply because it increases my odds of getting hurt? I don't think so. Because my crystal ball broke and I can't be 100 percent sure of the prefered non gunfight option. Thats my point Pretty simple. |
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September 7, 2007, 04:21 PM | #68 | |
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It's hard to add much more to it as well.
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September 8, 2007, 06:07 AM | #69 |
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I think along the lines of the Florida law. If someone is about to kill me or someone else or to commit serious harm, and has the capability, or is about to commit a forcible felony. I will shoot.
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September 8, 2007, 06:12 AM | #70 |
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Here's something else to ponder.
Odds and stats for those who decide to fight I would argue are skewed as well. I don't know many folks with the skill of say Mr. Lurper getting into gunfights. Heck I am far better with a firearms than most folks and have never been in a gunfight. In fact most of the gunfight folks that I know (including customers) have little skill and no tactical training. Oh and all survived and most won. Since the vast majority of armed citizens have little or no training the stats are skewed to the negative for folks involved in a shootout. |
September 10, 2007, 09:57 AM | #71 | |||||||||
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September 11, 2007, 03:06 AM | #72 |
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Wow... talk about over analyzing things!
I'm not advocating that you engage in every circumstance but to rely on some statistical probability when you don't know all the factors may also get you killed. It may be that 96% of robberies end without injuries, but how do you know if the one you're involved in is the 97th one today?
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September 11, 2007, 06:02 AM | #73 |
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would be interesting to see the response of the people that have been murdered if they could give an answer to the question and add to it 'if you had been armed'
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September 11, 2007, 09:14 AM | #74 | |
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September 11, 2007, 09:44 AM | #75 | ||
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I would rather rely on my abilities with a defensive firearm for survival than some badguys decision. I believe thats why we carry isn't it. Quote:
So am I to pass on a golden opportunity to end a threat if said threat hasn't displayed physical violence yet? I don't think so. I can tell you this. When trouble happens you ain't gonna have time for stats. If I would have pondered the stats before addressing the threat when it almost happened to me I would have gone from even in the reactionary curve to behind in a literal flash. |
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