What's the future of the 80% lower market?

TruthTellers · January 11, 2018, 07:03 PM

I may be getting an offer to work for a manufacturer of 80% AR lowers in an engineering capacity.

I'm not a big fan of 80% lowers because I think they're a waste of time and money and I wondering if accepting a potential offer would be worth it. I don't know how popular 80% lowers are and while I'm not interested, I don't know if others aren't.

What's the consensus on 80% lowers?

Obviously, with the AR being treated like machine guns in the media and general public, I'm wondering if legislative or executive action is going to be made in the next few years that would kill the 80% lower industry. Wouldn't want to take something that's not gonna last...

johnwilliamson062 · January 11, 2018, 07:23 PM

The line has to be drawn somewhere and always will.

My guess is the future of the market is polymers.

TruthTellers · January 11, 2018, 07:56 PM

^ Polymers for 3D printing?

3D printing as in "No need to use stupid jigs and tools to drill your own pin holes, etc" because the printer can make the entire lower 100% at home?

I would agree.

BumbleBug · January 11, 2018, 08:36 PM

As long as they are legal (your guess as good as mine on the future of this) there will be a market. But IMHO, the price needs to come Way down...like $20 each max.

FWIW

5whiskey · January 11, 2018, 10:20 PM

80% lowers are here to stay. Thats a long standing allowance in federal law. Its not just about ARs its about the 80% 1911, glock, etc. They also aren't necessarily all about building a "ghost gun." For many its just the sense of accomplishment. Its the "I can do it without the help of an FFL." While that may sound like a ghost gunner comment it really isn't. It isn't about the government not having a traceable record of your gun, its about you haveing the skill to build your own gun outside of the requirements of that traceable record. It may sound like there isn't a difference but it IS two different things.

TruthTellers · January 11, 2018, 10:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BumbleBug

As long as they are legal (your guess as good as mine on the future of this) there will be a market. But IMHO, the price needs to come Way down...like $20 each max.

FWIW

$20 for an 80% lower is not possible; that's probably what the raw forging costs. Then add to it the machining, labor, tooling, overhead... impossible.

FrankenMauser · January 11, 2018, 10:50 PM

Quote:

3D printing as in "No need to use stupid jigs and tools to drill your own pin holes, etc" because the printer can make the entire lower 100% at home?

No argument either way from me.
Just sharing my point of view, based on experience with multiple materials and parts large and small:
My 3D printer would take about 30-40 hours (maybe more?) to print an AR lower as a solid part, and it would probably take 3-5 failures before it got it right. So... figure 150 hours of print time, 10-15 hours of tweaking files and/or the printer, plus materials cost (2, 3, maybe even 4 spools of filament at $30-60 each), two to four hours to clean up support material in the open spaces and cavities of the lower after the print, and then another 20-30 minutes cleaning up or re-drilling all of the holes, because 3D printing (even on current commercial-grade machines) is not as accurate as CNC milling.

And then... the part is going to degrade due to heat, UV exposure, humidity (most materials), and cleaning solvents (!). It will likely not last more that a year, if it doesn't break during the first test cycle.

I'll stick with forged aluminum.
I love my 3D printer. It is particularly useful for making jigs to hold custom gun parts while I shape or polish things. And the technology has come quite far in the last decade.
But we're not ready for 'at-home' 3D printing of AR lowers yet, unless you want to drop $50k(+) on an SLA machine (StereoLithogrAphy, or Selective Layer Additive manufactring). And, even then... the improvements are only marginal over simple PLA filament in an FDM machine (Fused Deposition Manufacturing [or Modeling]).

Onward Allusion · January 11, 2018, 10:59 PM

I think there are 3 reasons that people buy/make the lowers . . .

#1 - do it for the fun of it . . .
#2 - want an untraceable ghost gun
#3 - prohibited person

It sure isn't to save a few bucks when a stripped Glock lower is $40 and the 80% ones are $160. Stripped AR lowers are around $50 and the 80% lowers are $80.

One thing that I have noticed is that it has driven up the price of Glock slides. One can buy a used G23 for around $350 but complete USED slides with all lower parts less receiver are selling for the same price . . .

TruthTellers · January 11, 2018, 11:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Onward Allusion

I think there are 3 reasons that people buy/make the lowers . . .

#1 - do it for the fun of it . . .
#2 - want an untraceable ghost gun
#3 - prohibited person

It sure isn't to save a few bucks when a stripped Glock lower is $40 and the 80% ones are $160. Stripped AR lowers are around $50 and the 80% lowers are $80.

One thing that I have noticed is that it has driven up the price of Glock slides. One can buy a used G23 for around $350 but complete USED slides with all lower parts less receiver are selling for the same price . . .

The slide and barrel are what costs the most money on a pistol, so I'm not surprised that they cost that much and it's not limited to just Glocks. Look at the prices of the "kits" for the Sig P320. They're more expensive than a used police trade in .40 caliber Glock.

And I agree with you on the 3 types of people who want a ghost gun. I can't even say it's wrong for a PP to go the ghost gun route because there are so many people who have probably been hit with fake domestic violence charges to get divorce proceedings sped up and to get your rights back can be impossible in some states.

Don P · January 12, 2018, 06:37 AM

Quote:

But IMHO, the price needs to come Way down...like $20 each max.

Really??? Evidently you have no concept of the cost of the forging, machining time to get the forging to its 80% of machine work. One of the more ridiculous statements I've read on TFL.

RedHoundTargets · January 12, 2018, 07:41 AM

Legally speaking who knows what the coming years will bring? If 80% lowers remain legal then I’m sure there will continue to be demand. For the same key reasons others have mentioned, but i really think the biggest one is ‘the IKEA effect’ (a real thing) where people place a higher value on things they helped make.
That being said, the 80% lower market has quite a lot of competition. Does it look like this company has a lot to bring to the table in the future to stay competitive? Do they have plans for innovations in the field, lowest cost, particularly high quality, etc.? I’m getting outside your actual question but it’s something to think about when considering any new position.

Edit: un ‘correcting’ some autocorrected words

SamNavy · January 12, 2018, 05:32 PM

I agree with the price of forged 80% lowers being high. Right now, you can buy 100% PSA lowers for $40. These are prices for individual 100% lowers and not bulk buys.

I don't see how it's "one of the more ridiculous statements I've read on TFL" to throw out a random number of $20 for an 80% lower. In addition to requiring less time on a CNC machine, 80% lowers are not subject to FAET or other random tax burdens, do not require the paperwork burden at any stage, are often not coated, etc...

I'm not convinced anybody chiming in here has a clue in hell of what any of this stuff really costs, but are still making absolute claims of "impossible" and telling others that they don't know what they're talking about. If you're "in the know" and look down upon us clueless minions because we don't know, then congratulations.

I'll admit that I have no clue either... but as a consumer, I HAVE BOUGHT ANDERSON 100% LOWERS FOR $36ea. I rarely see 80% lowers that are coated and have safety engravings for less than $50, and most that I see are $60+ and sometimes $80 with a fancy magwell or other custom "look".

As a general rule, I use PSA and Aero Precision stripped lowers as a gauge for value. I've bought plenty of 100% Aero lowers for $50 at gunshows, and have seen them that cheap online recently.

Just like any industry, it's tough for the end consumer to be able to get a straight answer out of a manufacturer, wholesaler, retailer, middle-man, etc... about what things cost to them.

Based on my limited following of this industry, I don't think it's fair to look down on a consumer who can buy $36 100% lowers and chastise them for thinking a $20 80% lower couldn't be possible for somebody to sell and still make money. If I'm wrong and somebody here can put forward some actual numbers, then here's what I'd like to know...

Lets talk about a lot of 1000 units of "normal" milspec forged lowers and follow them through from raw metal to the consumer:

Foundary
Manufacturer
Wholesaler
Retailer
Consumer

Cost of a blank forging.
Cost of machining to 80% and then to 100%.
Cost of coating.
Taxes.
Overhead.
Etc...

Can anybody run us through the whole thing and tell me why I can buy Aero's for $50, but an 80% non-engraved raw Cerro costs $60?

Duke of Lawn Chair · January 12, 2018, 06:01 PM

I don't know about that. How much do you think they paid for the 80% to make these $40.00 lowers?

http://www.primaryarms.com/MCategori...ower-Receivers

rickyrick · January 12, 2018, 06:06 PM

With Anderson lowers being sold regularly for $29, I don’t see that there’s a demand.

For some, I can see wanting to do it just to enjoy doing it. I’ve thought about it.

There’s the ghost gun crowd as well; however, I don’t think the ghost gun concept shines any positive light on the gun community but it’s not my place to judge the freedom of others.
Reiterating that some people do get some enjoyment out of milling them out.

Gotta go, hear the UPS truck coming

hdwhit · January 12, 2018, 08:58 PM

Quote:

TruthTellers asked:
What's the future of the 80% lower market?

There will always be a market for an AR lower that avoids the "complexities" of a government background check and a paper trail. Prior to the election, the 80% market was spurred on by fear of a Hillary gun-grab. That source of demand has largely disappeared from the market. The remaining sources of demand are from the hobbyists who want to make one just to say they did, the paranoid, and prohibited persons looking to acquire a gun any way they can. These are all small drivers of demand, so future growth in the 80% market is probably limited.

In considering employment, I would be interested to know what position in the 80% market this company holds; are the largest seller of 80% lowers or the 9th largest? Are they currently profitable? What is their cash position? What are their inventory levels? What is the trend in inventory? What has their auditor said about their future as a going concern? What are their future plans?

Also, where are you in your career? Are you retired and looking for something fun? Or are you a 40-something with kids and a mortgage?

I was one of few engineers that knew anything about guns in southeast Arkansas when Iver Johnson relocated to Jacksonville. I passed on an engineering position with them. I kind of regretted it. I didn't regret that they went belly up shortly after that.

hdwhit · January 12, 2018, 09:02 PM

Quote:

5whiskey wrote:
Its the "I can do it without the help of an FFL." While that may sound like a ghost gunner comment it really isn't.

Actually, it is.

"I can do it all by myself" is the sentiment of a hobbyist.

"I can do it without the help of an FFL" is someone looking to skirt the paperwork and fly under the radar.

turtlehead · January 13, 2018, 12:31 AM

Doesn't float my boat but there must be enough of a market out there to support it.

As far as the ghost thing goes I'm not of that mind. If they want them someday they just have to come and take it.

rickyrick · January 13, 2018, 04:54 AM

Yep, I’ll turn in my only firearm, rusty old revolver...

Mobuck · January 13, 2018, 08:28 AM

At some point, that "loophole" will get plugged and the 80% market will collapse just like the "solvent trap" market did a while back.

Stats Shooter · January 13, 2018, 09:23 AM

Quote:

At some point, that "loophole" will get plugged and the 80% market will collapse just like the "solvent trap" market did a while back.

I doubt it. Too hard to craft a law and enforce it that would ban 80% receivers. What about 79% or 65% etc etc. Eventually you would have to ban aluminum blocks in the general shape of a lower.

I suppose one could make it illegal to manufacture a non serialize firearm...akin to converting a semi-auto into full auto. But, if you are prohibited from owning a gun in the first place, I doubt you would care that you are breaking a law making one.

Onward Allusion · January 13, 2018, 11:40 AM

The future is not 80% lowers. The future is 100% 3D printed lowers. One can purchase 3D's for less than $1000 with may costing around $500. The key is for the industry to develop the right filament.

Big Shrek · January 15, 2018, 06:02 PM

Some gun shops were planning a "Records Room" fire if a certain Dem got into power...
because they knew the squishy would certainly hit the fan...for nearly everyone
that had ever bought a gun from them...only way to clear it all was to burn it all,
in an "accidental" manner.

Everyone's relaxed for now, but it's really only going to take the anti-gun people being
in power for all that to change. So we watch, and we wait...and hope it ends up
being good stuff coming down the pike instead of a freight train & we're stuck onna tracks.

Worst comes to worst, buy a big sailboat and skedaddle. Only port where the countries
are friendly to guns...do the Waterworld thing for a few decades

johnwilliamson062 · January 15, 2018, 08:16 PM

As previous poster stated, the future is 100% 3D printed, but i don't think that will take off until metal 3D printers hit a lower price point. Maybe 5k or something to get it really running(software and material included).

I think the short term best product is polymers 80% lowers one can buy.
Most people are very comfortable with the tools used to finish them and have tools that can be used to finish them without ruining the tools.
They are cheaper. They could get much cheaper
If you don't anodize the aluminum receiver they don't hold up all that well anyways.

Most people either want an ghost gun or a fun project. Polymer, especially reinforced, works for both.

January 11, 2018, 08:36 PM	#4
BumbleBug Senior Member Join Date: March 11, 2013 Location: Near Heart of Texas Posts: 870	As long as they are legal (your guess as good as mine on the future of this) there will be a market. But IMHO, the price needs to come Way down...like $20 each max. FWIW __________________ Visit my fictional blog "The dr Chronicles" about a laid-back Texan named dr - Enjoy!

January 11, 2018, 10:59 PM	#8
Onward Allusion Senior Member Join Date: November 17, 2009 Location: Back in a Non-Free State Posts: 3,133	I think there are 3 reasons that people buy/make the lowers . . . #1 - do it for the fun of it . . . #2 - want an untraceable ghost gun #3 - prohibited person It sure isn't to save a few bucks when a stripped Glock lower is $40 and the 80% ones are $160. Stripped AR lowers are around $50 and the 80% lowers are $80. One thing that I have noticed is that it has driven up the price of Glock slides. One can buy a used G23 for around $350 but complete USED slides with all lower parts less receiver are selling for the same price . . . __________________ Simple as ABC . . . Always Be Carrying

January 12, 2018, 07:41 AM	#11
RedHoundTargets Member Join Date: January 7, 2018 Location: Connecticut Posts: 36	Legally speaking who knows what the coming years will bring? If 80% lowers remain legal then I’m sure there will continue to be demand. For the same key reasons others have mentioned, but i really think the biggest one is ‘the IKEA effect’ (a real thing) where people place a higher value on things they helped make. That being said, the 80% lower market has quite a lot of competition. Does it look like this company has a lot to bring to the table in the future to stay competitive? Do they have plans for innovations in the field, lowest cost, particularly high quality, etc.? I’m getting outside your actual question but it’s something to think about when considering any new position. Edit: un ‘correcting’ some autocorrected words __________________ Red Hound targets. Steel targets made in the USA. www.redhoundtargets.com

January 13, 2018, 11:40 AM	#21
Onward Allusion Senior Member Join Date: November 17, 2009 Location: Back in a Non-Free State Posts: 3,133	The future is not 80% lowers. The future is 100% 3D printed lowers. One can purchase 3D's for less than $1000 with may costing around $500. The key is for the industry to develop the right filament. __________________ Simple as ABC . . . Always Be Carrying

January 15, 2018, 06:02 PM	#22
Big Shrek Senior Member Join Date: August 6, 2009 Location: NorthWest Florida Posts: 1,358	Some gun shops were planning a "Records Room" fire if a certain Dem got into power... because they knew the squishy would certainly hit the fan...for nearly everyone that had ever bought a gun from them...only way to clear it all was to burn it all, in an "accidental" manner. Everyone's relaxed for now, but it's really only going to take the anti-gun people being in power for all that to change. So we watch, and we wait...and hope it ends up being good stuff coming down the pike instead of a freight train & we're stuck onna tracks. Worst comes to worst, buy a big sailboat and skedaddle. Only port where the countries are friendly to guns...do the Waterworld thing for a few decades __________________ Marlin Specialist Calico Specialist A gun should be a tool in the hands of a deadly weapon, not a deadly weapon in the hands of a tool.

January 11, 2018, 07:03 PM	#1
TruthTellers Senior Member Join Date: October 22, 2016 Posts: 3,888	What's the future of the 80% lower market? I may be getting an offer to work for a manufacturer of 80% AR lowers in an engineering capacity. I'm not a big fan of 80% lowers because I think they're a waste of time and money and I wondering if accepting a potential offer would be worth it. I don't know how popular 80% lowers are and while I'm not interested, I don't know if others aren't. What's the consensus on 80% lowers? Obviously, with the AR being treated like machine guns in the media and general public, I'm wondering if legislative or executive action is going to be made in the next few years that would kill the 80% lower industry. Wouldn't want to take something that's not gonna last... __________________ "We always think there's gonna be more time... then it runs out."

January 11, 2018, 07:23 PM	#2
johnwilliamson062 Junior member Join Date: May 16, 2008 Posts: 9,995	The line has to be drawn somewhere and always will. My guess is the future of the market is polymers.

January 11, 2018, 07:56 PM	#3
TruthTellers Senior Member Join Date: October 22, 2016 Posts: 3,888	^ Polymers for 3D printing? 3D printing as in "No need to use stupid jigs and tools to drill your own pin holes, etc" because the printer can make the entire lower 100% at home? I would agree. __________________ "We always think there's gonna be more time... then it runs out."

January 11, 2018, 10:20 PM	#5
5whiskey Senior Member Join Date: October 23, 2005 Location: US Posts: 3,657	80% lowers are here to stay. Thats a long standing allowance in federal law. Its not just about ARs its about the 80% 1911, glock, etc. They also aren't necessarily all about building a "ghost gun." For many its just the sense of accomplishment. Its the "I can do it without the help of an FFL." While that may sound like a ghost gunner comment it really isn't. It isn't about the government not having a traceable record of your gun, its about you haveing the skill to build your own gun outside of the requirements of that traceable record. It may sound like there isn't a difference but it IS two different things.

January 12, 2018, 05:32 PM	#12
SamNavy Senior Member Join Date: August 28, 2011 Location: Virginia Beach, VA Posts: 433	I agree with the price of forged 80% lowers being high. Right now, you can buy 100% PSA lowers for $40. These are prices for individual 100% lowers and not bulk buys. I don't see how it's "one of the more ridiculous statements I've read on TFL" to throw out a random number of $20 for an 80% lower. In addition to requiring less time on a CNC machine, 80% lowers are not subject to FAET or other random tax burdens, do not require the paperwork burden at any stage, are often not coated, etc... I'm not convinced anybody chiming in here has a clue in hell of what any of this stuff really costs, but are still making absolute claims of "impossible" and telling others that they don't know what they're talking about. If you're "in the know" and look down upon us clueless minions because we don't know, then congratulations. I'll admit that I have no clue either... but as a consumer, I HAVE BOUGHT ANDERSON 100% LOWERS FOR $36ea. I rarely see 80% lowers that are coated and have safety engravings for less than $50, and most that I see are $60+ and sometimes $80 with a fancy magwell or other custom "look". As a general rule, I use PSA and Aero Precision stripped lowers as a gauge for value. I've bought plenty of 100% Aero lowers for $50 at gunshows, and have seen them that cheap online recently. Just like any industry, it's tough for the end consumer to be able to get a straight answer out of a manufacturer, wholesaler, retailer, middle-man, etc... about what things cost to them. Based on my limited following of this industry, I don't think it's fair to look down on a consumer who can buy $36 100% lowers and chastise them for thinking a $20 80% lower couldn't be possible for somebody to sell and still make money. If I'm wrong and somebody here can put forward some actual numbers, then here's what I'd like to know... Lets talk about a lot of 1000 units of "normal" milspec forged lowers and follow them through from raw metal to the consumer: Foundary Manufacturer Wholesaler Retailer Consumer Cost of a blank forging. Cost of machining to 80% and then to 100%. Cost of coating. Taxes. Overhead. Etc... Can anybody run us through the whole thing and tell me why I can buy Aero's for $50, but an 80% non-engraved raw Cerro costs $60?

January 12, 2018, 06:01 PM	#13
Duke of Lawn Chair Member Join Date: January 10, 2018 Posts: 25	I don't know about that. How much do you think they paid for the 80% to make these $40.00 lowers? http://www.primaryarms.com/MCategori...ower-Receivers

January 12, 2018, 06:06 PM	#14
rickyrick Senior Member Join Date: March 15, 2010 Posts: 8,238	With Anderson lowers being sold regularly for $29, I don’t see that there’s a demand. For some, I can see wanting to do it just to enjoy doing it. I’ve thought about it. There’s the ghost gun crowd as well; however, I don’t think the ghost gun concept shines any positive light on the gun community but it’s not my place to judge the freedom of others. Reiterating that some people do get some enjoyment out of milling them out. Gotta go, hear the UPS truck coming

January 13, 2018, 12:31 AM	#17
turtlehead Senior Member Join Date: October 20, 2015 Location: Phoenix, AZ Posts: 1,203	Doesn't float my boat but there must be enough of a market out there to support it. As far as the ghost thing goes I'm not of that mind. If they want them someday they just have to come and take it.

January 13, 2018, 04:54 AM	#18
rickyrick Senior Member Join Date: March 15, 2010 Posts: 8,238	Yep, I’ll turn in my only firearm, rusty old revolver...

January 13, 2018, 08:28 AM	#19
Mobuck Junior member Join Date: February 2, 2010 Posts: 6,846	At some point, that "loophole" will get plugged and the 80% market will collapse just like the "solvent trap" market did a while back.

January 15, 2018, 08:16 PM	#23
johnwilliamson062 Junior member Join Date: May 16, 2008 Posts: 9,995	As previous poster stated, the future is 100% 3D printed, but i don't think that will take off until metal 3D printers hit a lower price point. Maybe 5k or something to get it really running(software and material included). I think the short term best product is polymers 80% lowers one can buy. Most people are very comfortable with the tools used to finish them and have tools that can be used to finish them without ruining the tools. They are cheaper. They could get much cheaper If you don't anodize the aluminum receiver they don't hold up all that well anyways. Most people either want an ghost gun or a fun project. Polymer, especially reinforced, works for both.