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April 17, 2009, 02:26 PM | #1 | ||
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Arguments used in the Brady Campaign website
So every once in a while I read through the anti gun websites just to see what they have and whether their information and arguments are correct/valid. I'm no experts at either debate or statistics, so I was curious as to what retorts you smart folk out there would have for some of the arguments listed in the anti-CCW section of the Brady Campaign have.
http://www.bradycampaign.org/issues/concealedcarry/ Specifically to references of lax CCW laws = more crime, and CCW permit holders not being law abiding citizens. Quote:
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April 17, 2009, 04:27 PM | #2 | ||
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Tying into that, you'll note that the 80% figure is for "weapon-related offenses," whereas for the violent offenses (assaults, deadly conduct, etc.) they give absolute numbers rather than rates. They also mention arrests, not convictions. Basically it's entirely possible that many of that 81% are more akin to "paperwork violations," which while non-trivial aren't necessarily a danger to public safety. Basically I see a lot of potential for cherrypicking in that paragraph. A classic example of such statistical cherrypicking is the old "you're more likely to be killed by your own gun than defend yourself" line, which almost always includes suicides. In this case the burden would be on you to investigate these numbers further, and determine if there might be some statistical shenanigans going on. In both instances, however, you have to try and remain objective...accept the idea that they may be correct. At that point your argument needs to be centered around how significant these dangers actually are, and if there are other positive effects that may outweigh them for a net benefit (or insignificant net harm). |
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April 17, 2009, 04:29 PM | #3 | |
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Also, if their CCW permits are valid, why are the 671 "unlawfully" carrying the weapon? How does that work? This is why I stay away from the Brady Campaign's website. Yes, it's good to know what the enemy is thinking, but their "facts" are so flawed it makes me want to go on a bow and arrow rampage.......
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April 17, 2009, 04:33 PM | #4 | |
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Carry in a bar, carry in a church, carry while drunk, carry in a government building, and so on, and so forth. I don't know the specifics of Texas CCW law, but merely having a permit doesn't mean you cannot be carrying illegally. EDIT: Also, as you point out, an arrest for illegal carry does not mean it stood up in court. Said offender may have been one of the many who beat the rap, but not the ride. |
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April 17, 2009, 04:34 PM | #5 | |
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Just the kind of response I was hoping to get JC, thanks...
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April 17, 2009, 04:34 PM | #6 |
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Also, good call on arrests for defensive gun uses jfrey.
EDIT: On a side note, I heartily encourage people to apply these same levels of critical thinking to pro-gun arguments as well. I've seen many similar fallacies perpetuated by our "side" as well. |
April 17, 2009, 05:12 PM | #7 | ||
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Let's look at some statistics ourselves... Conviction (not arrest!) rates of CHL holders vs. the general population in 2007: http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/adminis...Report2007.pdf Total number of CHL permit holders was 288,909 in 2007: http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/adminis...dInstr2007.pdf Estimated population of Texas in 2007 was 23,904,380 according to the U.S. Census Bureau: http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/48000.html Let's crunch some numbers. # of non-licensed persons in TX per CHL holder: (23,904,380 - 288,909) / 288,909 = 81.7 This means that for any given crime, if all else is equal, the number of non-CHL holders committing a crime should be 81.7 times the number of times that crime was committed by a CHL holder. For the sake of time, let's pick a handful of violent crimes. Keep in mind that we are discussing actual convictions for actual violent crimes, not nebulous ill-defined "Weapons Related Arrests". Aggravated Assault with a Deadly Weapon: (2,513 - 7) / 7 = 358 Assault Causing Bodily Injury, Family Violence: (18,507 - 24) / 24 = 770 Deadly Conduct: (1,432 - 15) / 15 = 94... this is the only one with a large number (>10) of CHL convictions that's even close to 81.7... Murder: (371 - 2) / 2 = 184.5 I like this one... Robbery: 1,791 vs. zero! The same number of CHL convictions for well over 3/4 of the crimes on the list! The big one: Number of Texas residents per criminal conviction: (23,904,380 - 288,909) / (61,260 - 1,806) = 397 Number of CHL holders per criminal conviction of a CHL holder: 288,909 / 160 = 1,806 1,806 / 397 = 4.55. In 2007, non-CHL holders were convicted of crimes at 4.55 times the rate of CHL holders! I'm sure a statistician would insist on a detailed analysis of all years of data available, but for now, I rest my case.
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April 17, 2009, 08:05 PM | #9 | |
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I got a big kick out of their recent rant on stopping border violence article. The article blamed the border violence solely on our weak gun laws. Never once did the article mention that the violence is being caused by drug cartels or that drugs were ever a factor in the on going violence. I'm sure the cartels would stop smuggling drugs and killing each other if only we could stop them from getting a semi auto SKS.
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April 17, 2009, 08:23 PM | #10 |
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When y'all get tired of reading that trash, just click on over on PETA's arena for some real giggles and fits.:barf:
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April 17, 2009, 08:28 PM | #11 | |
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April 17, 2009, 09:47 PM | #12 |
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Such political rants are off-topic.
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