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Old September 18, 2017, 09:26 AM   #51
zukiphile
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I'd like to hear your assessment on how long ARs and .223 are going to be state of the art.
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Originally Posted by Skans
I don't look at any AR as "state of the art".
Indeed.

"State of the art" (which art?) is a peculiar phrase to use for firearms, a technology sneaking up on a half millenium old. It's tough to improve on a well evolved design. More than a decade ago, the "tweel" was set forth as an improvement on the pneumatic tire and wheel, but this improvement has limited application because it also carries disadvantages. I know no one with tweels on his car.

The pertinent question seems to be "what will be so much better that it will displace the AR?". A "plasma rilfe in the 40 watt range" may seem neat, but less so if the execution of the new idea isn't well adapted to personal use.

If the current layout is essentially a multi-piece pipe, like a more refined sten, and anyone can buy parts to suit his budget and tastes, including very high quality, durable parts that give good accuracy, why would someone move to another layout?
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Old September 19, 2017, 02:01 AM   #52
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Some of the old guard in the Army (and/or the ones getting paid, or are trying to secure after retirement employment) may dream of moving back to full power rifle rounds...

But smart money is on 5.56 being the continuing military round of choice, until we get a big leap in ammo tech. Caseless or polymer cased telescoped rounds... That keep weight similar to 5.56, but with better ballistics. I doubt anything over 6.5mm either... Maybe a long'ish 6mm in the 80-90gr range..

New ammo tech is many years away, and it's not going to hit the civilian market hard for a little while after.


The AR pattern rifle (and derivatives) is likely to remain the dominant platform until the arrival of a new ammo tech as well.

It may get some tweaks, updates to the spec to include improved tech and materials, but mostly stay inline with the current rifles. With only changes to readily replaceable parts likely.


I don't see any major shake up being likely for at least a decade... But that's all just conjecture on my part.


Either way, the AR platform will not die for a long time. Too ubiquitous...
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Old September 19, 2017, 06:30 PM   #53
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I won't be surprised if it happens this time around. Reasoning, the 5.56 round can't defeat enemy body armor and it's lethality at longer ranges is a joke. And greater range is where our soldiers are fighting their battles. There also seems to be more of a desire and agreement change is needed. Nothing will happen before 2020. That's when the prototype rifle are suppose to be ready. It won't be the 7.62 cartridge since that is just band-aid until a new cartridge and rifle is selected. Whatever is selected, it will likely be a AR style rifle that is in between the AR15 and AR10.
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Old September 19, 2017, 07:05 PM   #54
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I hope there's no more wars for the USA. I'm tired of wars.
I didn't think that this was a military replacement of the M4/M16 thread.
ARs will be around for a century after the USA drops the M16/M4
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Old September 19, 2017, 08:20 PM   #55
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Barring any outright bans and confiscation, I believe the AR platform will be around for a very long time. There are a lot of them out there, there is a lot of ammo for it, and it works. The round is compact, allowing for a lot of "firepower" in a small package. While some may argue other rounds are more effective, few can say that it isn't an effective anti-personnel round.

Ideally, a replacement would have larger capacity, have little to no recoil, travel faster, be more compact, and be more effective. I imagine an energy weapon such as high powered lasers or energy waves would fit the bill nicely. There would be no need for a long barrel, no need for any actual projectile (meaning no ammo to carry), it would travel at the speed of light, make no sound, and have no recoil. Battery technology would obviously have to resolved first. Even then, bullets will be able to kill people and damage objects. Watch Starwars... Wookies had pretty crude weapons and they were still able to do some damage.
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Old September 19, 2017, 09:32 PM   #56
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The next party in the White House will have lots of retaliatory legislation. In my world view gun rights are tied to one particular party, so that could be s target.
I know this is all speculation, but this whole thread is speculation.
There will be more state and local bans for sure and even in the strictest of states, people own ARs still; even though they are pretty idiotic looking. I'm sure there's plenty of m16s still used in the Vietnam region.
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Old September 20, 2017, 09:55 AM   #57
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The next party in the White House will have lots of retaliatory legislation. In my world view gun rights are tied to one particular party, so that could be s target.
I know this is all speculation, but this whole thread is speculation.
There will be more state and local bans for sure and even in the strictest of states, people own ARs still; even though they are pretty idiotic looking. I'm sure there's plenty of m16s still used in the Vietnam region.
I've seen several dem administrations come and go--the only things I've seen recently as a result of that are paranoia runs on everything from rifles to reload components which in the end do nothing but make the companies richer. Imagine that, right?
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Old September 20, 2017, 10:25 AM   #58
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Originally Posted by stagpanther
I've seen several dem administrations come and go--the only things I've seen recently as a result of that are paranoia runs ...
Just picking a linguistic nit: paranoia involves a delusion of persecution. Where a stated political aim is restriction of rights, there is no delusion in taking the statements seriously and acting in anticipation.

One's anxieties may not pan out in the short term, but that doesn't make them paranoid. If winds shift so that Sen. Feinstein drags out her wish list again, that could be a genuine problem.
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Old September 20, 2017, 10:33 AM   #59
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Just picking a linguistic nit: paranoia involves a delusion of persecution. Where a stated political aim is restriction of rights, there is no delusion in taking the statements seriously and acting in anticipation.

One's anxieties may not pan out in the short term, but that doesn't make them paranoid. If winds shift so that Sen. Feinstein drags out her wish list again, that could be a genuine problem.
Call it or blame it on what you like--I've spent a lot of time at stores watching people buy everything off the shelves and drive the prices through the roof--I have a a very strong distrust of industry fear-mongering when involving politics because that's the only thing I can count on happening.
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Old September 20, 2017, 10:43 AM   #60
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Many politicians state that they want the guns gone.
Acting upon it is a different thing, but they certainly want them gone. I live in a place now that a new restrictions come pretty often and some form of gun control is on most of the ballots.
Panics happen out of this, I don't think it's unfounded. There's lots of things people thought the government wouldn't do but it did.
The west coast is learning how to restrict guns, it will spread.

I don't think they'll make much ground, but don't let you're guard down.
Many gun owners don't vote. Many people that vote are seeking happiness from the government, not gun rights.... they could care less.

I think AR15s will be around a very long time. But it all depends.

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Old September 20, 2017, 12:20 PM   #61
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Call it or blame it on what you like--I've spent a lot of time at stores watching people buy everything off the shelves and drive the prices through the roof--I have a a very strong distrust of industry fear-mongering when involving politics because that's the only thing I can count on happening.
The AWB was real. For a decade you could count on some very silly restrictions on arms. The armor piercing ammunition import bans are real. restrictions on NFA weapons are real. The post Sandyhook opportunity to enact some very ugly restrictions was thwarted because there was political resolve to stand firm against it and enough friendly votes in Congress to frustrate the hysteria.

I understand that markets can be frustrating and that consumers and vendors don't always act to keep prices and supply stable. On the other hand, if you really wanted a PMAG in January 2013 and had $80, there was CTD ready to send it to you.

Volatility in the markets reflects a political volatility.
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Old September 20, 2017, 12:37 PM   #62
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I understand that markets can be frustrating and that consumers and vendors don't always act to keep prices and supply stable. On the other hand, if you really wanted a PMAG in January 2013 and had $80, there was CTD ready to send it to you.

Volatility in the markets reflects a political volatility.
No argument there--for the most part. What I'm saying is that emotion/fear drives a huge portion of that price volatility. The guys gouging customers or working around the clock 7 days a week to meet demand I'm sure are complaining about the assault of 2nd amendment rights and all that--all the way to the bank. Like the mag example you cited.
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Old September 20, 2017, 01:17 PM   #63
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What I'm saying is that emotion/fear drives a huge portion of that price volatility.
No question. I don't think that's unusual. I had a sec once who collected little stuffed animals called beanie babies. She thought of them as investments and could tell you how much her rare ones were worth. Reasonably apprising the long term value of a stuffed animal gave one a lower value.

Quote:
The guys gouging customers or working around the clock 7 days a week to meet demand I'm sure are complaining about the assault of 2nd amendment rights and all that--all the way to the bank. Like the mag example you cited.
I see this a bit differently. I know CTD gets little affection around here for what people call "gouging". I don't ever buy anything from CTD either, but for different reasons.

If you have a gallon of gas or a stuffed animal or a PMAG or the latest israeli bullpup and you are valuing it as a commodity, then what you paid for it is not pertinent. You would base your price on your replacement cost, whatever your next gallon of gas, stuffed animal or Pmag would cost. Setting a price that deters speculators and allows you to maintain an inventory may make buyers grumble, but it isn't wrong.

Anticipating that the price on Pmags or israely bullpups may go increase wildly if the bigger, badder brother of the 94AWB were to pass isn't unreasonable. At this point, I believe the more serious hobbyists amongst us have may plans for at least a moderate dry spell in the supply of whatever we normally consume, and we are consequently a bit more picky in what we will buy. In that way, we (the hoarders) have contributed to current market stability.
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Old October 10, 2017, 03:40 PM   #64
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I have forty of them, they will be around until I croak.
Kraigwy, My trapdoor carbine (1885) hangs over the fireplace when I am not shooting it so I can attest to it's longevity.
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Old October 10, 2017, 07:26 PM   #65
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They will be around until the Democrats take over all three houses long enough to push radical legislation through and stack the SCOTUS.
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Old October 10, 2017, 07:27 PM   #66
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The AR wont begin to lose popularity until the military adopts a new general service rifle. Until then, enjoy the black rifles!
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Old October 11, 2017, 09:28 AM   #67
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The AR wont begin to lose popularity until the military adopts a new general service rifle.
And M1 Garands and M14 clones are still popular.
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Old October 11, 2017, 11:12 PM   #68
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^^^what he said ^^^^

91/30s, 1903s, ak47s, sks, FALs and enfields are still popular too.
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Old October 13, 2017, 11:07 PM   #69
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Service rifles will always have a following. However,


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And M1 Garands and M14 clones are still popular.
People tend to be nostalgic a bit. The older shooters mainly keep those rifles in use. When they die off, they will lose more popularity. It is already happening to a degree, at one time the 30-06 was king, and once fired brass as common as sand on a beach. But not today. However, the modularity of the AR platform and ability to change cartridges makes it a much different animal than the Garand or M14.

Basically it has at least 50 years if it were to go out of service right now before everyone young while it was in use.
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Old October 14, 2017, 09:29 AM   #70
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Interesting question.

I would not call the design "state of the art"
However Guns don't really go obsolete do they? they're as good today as the day the first one rolled off the line.

Another gun might have attributes you like better but it's not like Air Jordan.. It ain't the shoes.

The AR15 is still a solid and well thought out platform, It's modularity and aftermarket support is probably 2nd to none on the market including the AK.

Other guns emulate it's buffer tube just to be able to utilize it's butt stocks.. think about that.

It's one of if not the most popular semi automatic rifle on the market in America.
Look how many people are building them? it's like with the 1911 just about every company is a meetoo producer.

So to answer how long will it be around? well it was designed before I was born and probably be made after im gone.


At the prices the AR stuff is selling for right now I see no reason not to get one if you don't already have one.
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Old October 14, 2017, 11:34 AM   #71
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It will be outdated when you decide it is, look at the 1911 pistol, never be gone.
+1 ar15 is pretty optimized I would love to see its replacement. unless its a variant with incompatible parts.
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Old October 14, 2017, 12:42 PM   #72
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Well the AR platform is 60 years old, so it's hardly state of the art. The main thing is it got people thinking differently about gun design, like Glock. The platform will evolve and the flaws fixed.

When I was looking to get back into shooting and looking for a rifle, I thought I'd get a Remington 700. Then I saw an article on AR's, did more research, and realized it's a design that makes a LOT of sense.
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Old October 17, 2017, 10:11 AM   #73
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People tend to be nostalgic a bit. The older shooters mainly keep those rifles in use
I'm not sure if nostalgia is the right word. I know plenty of people (including myself) who were born long after World War 2 or the Korean War that shoot and enjoy Garands.

And M14 clones are still manufactured new.

Not to mention the interest in surplus military rifles. Pretty sure that most Mosin Nagant owners never carried one in combat in their youths.
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Old October 17, 2017, 03:04 PM   #74
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Not to mention the interest in surplus military rifles. Pretty sure that most Mosin Nagant owners never carried one in combat in their youths.
Those rifles are mainly purchased because they are cheap. And the quantity of Garand shooters as a percentage has declined dramatically. As an indirect indicator, look at the amount of .30-06 once fired brass you find compared to decades ago. It used to be all over the place. And the M-14/M1A is a much newer rifle so its clock started much later.
Garands were post WW2 surplus and even saw some action in Korea. So the surplus stockpile lasted for decades...this implies a time lag from last service until civilian popularity wanes.
i didn't say they totally vanish either, or that there are not some groups out there keeping it alive. Only that the popularity as a percentage of total shooters declines.

However, because there hasn't been much in the way of technological improvements in firearms beyond just building lighter rifles and a bit better bullets and barrel alloys, the Garand isn't really out dated like a musket is or a cap and ball rifle. Therefore, their following will stay strong until that changes.
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Old October 17, 2017, 04:23 PM   #75
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Simonrichter: Guten Abend/Morgen.

Are the gun laws in Austria very similar to the laws in Germany?

A friend here, who grew up in Essen, told me about the hours of classroom theory (mittelalterlch: how many angels can dance on the head of a pin?), before the practical training begins. Good God, how ludicrous.....

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