Justice Anthony Kennedy is retiring-Kavanaugh Nominated

[TXAZ]

I read an article quoting McConnell saying confirmation would come "in the fall".
So that might be before or a little bit after the midterm.
My guess is it will be before

[L2R]

So, I have always thought Scalia and his pro 2A beliefs kept the needle just right of dead center. His death, I think, moved the needle just over to the other side. So a little was lost with that appointment. (it could have been drastically different I know)

If that is correct, then Kennedy's replacement might bump the needle back. But a moderately 2A judge replacing a neutral judge isn't a huge gain unless they prove to be very pro 2A down the road.

Now if Trump gets to make a 3rd appointment then that would be historical.

[zukiphile]

Originally Posted by MTT TL

I like him. He is smart, consistent and loyal. He is only 70. If Trump gets a second term it might a good time to step down, if not he can hang on for at least eleven years easily.

Thomas is superlative. I see many of his concurring and dissenting opinions from which future courts could draw should they choose to abandon current majority positions.

Age is only a number and I am not a doc. Scalia was 79 and feisty, but also carried far too much weight. I have partners Kennedy's age who don't seem frail and elderly, but Kennedy has had some cardiac problems. Breyer is 79, but he looks as if he is still going strong. These impressions and guesses are worth what you paid to read them, but attrition can be hard to predict with accuracy. Someday it will take Thomas too.

[Bartholomew Roberts]

While I’m hopeful, I wouldn’t assume we are going to get a pro-2A nomination just because of the current President. A lot of horse-trading gets done on Supreme Court nominations. Considering the importance of any member of the Heller majority being replaced, this would be something I plan to discuss with my Senators, even though I’m confident in both of them.

[MTT TL]

Mike Lee is being floated as strong contender. I don't know his record on guns but imagine if it follows the rest of his leanings he would be an outstanding choice.

[TXAZ]

I see potentially positive news now and in the next 6 years.
Ginsburg is 85, clearly (one of the most) anti-2nd Amendment, and in 5 years will be the oldest SCOTUS Justice ever. Health wise that is unlikely for her.

If Trump follows his stated list of applicants, the 2nd should enjoy a resurgence with a solid majority on the court.

[zukiphile]

Originally Posted by Bartolomew Roberts

While I’m hopeful, I wouldn’t assume we are going to get a pro-2A nomination just because of the current President.

My anxiety here would be that he sees the Federalist pledge as discharged or satisfied, and looks to consolidate support from some other group.

Originally Posted by MTT TL

Mike Lee is being floated as strong contender. I don't know his record on guns but imagine if it follows the rest of his leanings he would be an outstanding choice.

That's correct.

While this board has a particular focus, how one interprets the 2d Am. is not a separate, stand alone issue unrelated to the interpretation of constitutional text and civil rights more generally. Lee's public communication both on how the constitution generally and the 2d Am. specifically are to be understood would make him a fine choice.

I would also imagine that his status as a senator wouldn't make confirmation any less likely.

[stephen426]

Put in Trey Gowdy! I wish that man would run for President! What a smart, no-nonsense guys that tells it like it is!

[vicGT]

Originally Posted by MIT TL

Mike Lee is being floated as strong contender. I don't know his record on guns but imagine if it follows the rest of his leanings he would be an outstanding choice.

I agree, and my understanding is that he is open to being appointed to SCOTUS, and apparently was available last time, as well!

[motorhead0922]

Trump has his list of 25 potential nominees, and he's been sticking to it. That is, he nominated some of them to lower courts already.

Cruz isn't on the list. Lee is. The problem is, a senator can't vote on his own nomination, can he/she? So if Lee is nominated, that puts the Republican votes down to 50 max. The margin is already too thin. So, I hope Trump doesn't nominate a senator.

If he bumps up a lower court judge, then he'll get to fill that vacancy with his own pick.

[rickyrick]

Our officials have it easy with the second amendment: all they have to do is say “I support the Second Amendment” then they don’t actually have to support it. In 20 years we will be in the same boat, except more states will have weapons bans that are allowed to stand.

[TXAZ]

I’d go one further Zukiphile,
Mike Lee is as good as it gets for 2nd Amendment issues for someone *** that can*** be confirmed.

[vicGT]

Originally Posted by motorhead0922

The problem is, a senator can't vote on his own nomination, can he/she?

Apparently they can, or at least there is nothing in the Senate rules against it, and the Constitution is silent on this issue:
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/p...t-if-nominated
and
http://joshblackman.com/blog/2016/12...-confirmation/

If he bumps up a lower court judge, then he'll get to fill that vacancy with his own pick.

This is the bigger issue for me. Kennedy is (kind of) gone, so we are "down" by 1 (somewhat) conservative federal jurist. Trump elevates somebody, that doesn't change the number either, so we're still down overall on the federal level. But then he gets to replace the jurist he elevated, so that brings the number of conservative jurists on federal benches back to where it was before Kennedy retired.

Also, the replacement can be somewhat younger, so that's another small gain.

[Aguila Blanca]

Originally Posted by vicGT

This is the bigger issue for me. Kennedy is (kind of) gone, so we are "down" by 1 (somewhat) conservative federal jurist. Trump elevates somebody, that doesn't change the number either, so we're still down overall on the federal level. But then he gets to replace the jurist he elevated, so that brings the number of conservative jurists on federal benches back to where it was before Kennedy retired.

That's if you consider Kennedy to be a conservative. The liberals have been calling him that recently, because he went along with Trump's travel ban. Until then, I have always heard/seen Kennedy described as a moderate or a centrist. I think that's a much better description of him. I firmly believe that he is the sole reason Scalia's decision in Heller was written with so many loopholes for the liberals to scoff at Heller while proclaiming to be proceeding according to it.

[MTT TL]

Here is some slightly biased analysis of Kennedy's votes. Not too far from the mark.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graph...urt-2017-term/

[Tom Servo]

I could really get behind a Ted Cruz nomination. I don't think it will ever happen though.

In the post-2016 climate, nothing surprises me. I'm not being silly; I really have no idea what to expect.

That said, Sykes and Hardeman both have a good, verified background on 2A issues, and Lee seems promising as well.

[Gary L. Griffiths]

Lee would be good, but I can't see throwing away a senate vote for confirmation on the off chance that his being a Senator would incline some otherwise-hostile Democrats to vote for him out of collegiality. Time will tell. This looks to be as nasty a confirmation process as Bork and Thomas!

[Bartholomew Roberts]

I just hope whoever the next nominee is, that person:

1) Shares my vision of the 2A
2) Is from outside the inbred Ivy League mafia
3) Has many decades ahead

USA Today had a good opinion piece advocating for Don Willett, who ticks all of those boxes. His confirmation to 5th Circuit was fairly partisan in 2017 though, so it would probably be the same story again.

[vicGT]

Originally Posted by Bartholomew Roberts

USA Today had a good opinion piece advocating for Don Willett, who ticks all of those boxes. His confirmation to 5th Circuit was fairly partisan in 2017 though, so it would probably be the same story again.

I haven't seen an MSM piece advocating for a "conservative" candidate, I'll be interested to read it. I followed Don Willett on Twitter some years ago... he was genuinely funny. Some of his posts were about taking his kids to the shooting range.

[MTT TL]

USA Today had a good opinion piece advocating for Don Willett, who ticks all of those boxes.

Doubtful. He got in a twitter war with the president. As much as Trump loves twitter doubt he will forget that.

[Tom Servo]

Lee would be good, but I can't see throwing away a senate vote for confirmation on the off chance that his being a Senator would incline some otherwise-hostile Democrats to vote for him out of collegiality.

It's Utah, so he'd be replaced with a Republican in the short term, and most likely in the long term as well. Even if we assume losing his seat, he may be more valuable to us as a Justice in the long term.

As for the Bork and Thomas references...I suspect this is going to be uglier. So much uglier. I'd say we'll someday look back at this period in our political history with shame, but that assumes this is just a temporary situation.

[Bartholomew Roberts]

These are reportedly the top five potential nominees:

Brett Kavanaugh, 53, of Maryland, U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia — widely respected and very much on Trump’s radar.

Thomas Hardiman, 52, of Pennsylvania, 3rd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals — good chemistry with Trump and White House Counsel Don McGahn. They respect him and like the way he engaged in the process last time, even though he wasn't picked.

Amy Coney Barrett, 46, of Indiana, 7th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals.

Amul Thapar, 49, of Kentucky, 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals — on the shortlist largely as a courtesy to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.).

Raymond Kethledge, 51, of Michigan, 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals.

Hardiman is a solid pick on the Second and was a strong contender during the Gorsuch nomination as well. He ticks all the Willet criteria too.

[Aguila Blanca]

Barrett is the youngest of the bunch, and a female on top of that (which might swing one or two senators her way). How much of an originalist/strict constructionist is she, and what's her position on the second Amendment?

Hmmm ...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Coney_Barrett

She clerked for Scalia. She's a member of The Federalist Society. But ... that People of Praise business makes me question what otherwise look to be stellar qualifications. It's hard to reconcile that with being a good Catholic, but not all professed Catholics (or Christians, or whatever) are good Cathlics (or Christians, or whatever).

[Bartholomew Roberts]

Kavanaugh authored a pro-2A dissent againt an assault weapons ban in the D.C. Circuit. On the other hand, he is an Ivy leaguer who has been square in the middle of both the Clinton impeachment effort and the GWB recount.

Several people here have pointed fingers at Kennedy for not accepting cert on several important 2A cases. My fear is that Kennedy isn’t the problem, Roberts is. I worry Kavanaugh is a bit too close to the GOP. He’ll be a solid pro-2A justice, but I think he might haul up well short of what many of us here see as the scope of the Second.

[Aguila Blanca]

Originally Posted by Bartholomew Roberts

He’ll be a solid pro-2A justice, but I think he might haul up well short of what many of us here see as the scope of the Second.

If he comes up short of what many of us see as the scope of the Second Amendment, then he really isn't a "solid pro-2A" candidate, is he? The 2A says what it says, and if one is intellectually honest there just isn't a lot of wiggle room in that language. "The right to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed."