Federal 30S Super carry, new cartridge

[Scorch]

As far as carry guns, back in the 1930s the 32ACP and 380 ACP were available in what was essentially the same gun (Colt Pocket Hammerless). The 32 ACP lost, people didn't consider it a viable round. Lots of cheap 32s sold, but they were mainly marketed to people who couldn't afford a 38. Yes, lots of cheap 38s were sold as well, but that's not the point. People didn't think the 32 was much of anything for self-defense. Would it work? Sure, especially in the days before trauma ERs and good antibiotics. Was it ideal? No, people thought it was a pipsqueak, half the energy of the 380 in a gun that cost about as much.

Fast forward to the 1980s. 32 S&W Long got a power boost to 32 H&R. The gun-buying public pretty much said "so what". Same for the 327 Federal.

I think the public's reaction to the 30 Super Carry will be the same. But it will generate fans, just probably not enough to make it a real viable production round.

I think people don't appreciate the potential of a 32.

[zaitcev]

Originally Posted by reddog81

What’s the capacity of the guns that are being introduced?

Nighthawk is 10. Not sure how much was there previously.

S&W added 2 to both Shield Plus and the EZ. Although obviously one cannot cram 2 more rounds that are 11% thinner into an 8-round magazine of EZ, so they added a baseplate extension.

[Centurion]

Why some of our human fellows try to re-invent the wheel from time to time?



Enviado desde mi MAR-LX3A mediante Tapatalk

[Super Sneaky Steve]

The 32 ACP lost,

If being the most popular caliber in the world for both civilian, military and police is losing then I guess it lost.

[wild cat mccane]

I totally understand your logic.

32acp was popular as it and 9mm came out about the same time. Then 9mm wiped it out. Here, 9mm was an advancement and won the day. Concealed carry didn't exist in the US, then it did and enter the P32 and P3AT. Bye went the 32 acp. 45acp and 40 gained traction, but 9mm came back to win the race once again with Gold Dot, XTP, and HST equaling results of the others without the negatives of either. All .380, 9mm, 40, and 45 FMJ fall within the same penetration spread, so it wasn't FMJ.

So, by this logic, it's possible for a smaller quality HST round to win based on merits. I got it.

Here's where this fails though. Federal says it is not for government or law enforcement. It's for the US concealed carry market. Ok. So scratch all government, police, and military contracts. So the tiny success of 45 GAP and 357 Sig isn't going to be the same for 30S. That's trouble.

Well, the LCP is the number 1 concealed carry gun in the US. Size.
The P365 almost killed the competition immediately to the point that all manufacturers dropped their prices by $100 just to get people to buy their Shield, PPS, LC9, G2, and even the G43. There is a rumored story of Taurus going into a free fall for sells in the US that the company was not looking good for revenue. That's even with the G2/G3 popularity. Enter the under $200 dollar days of the G2.

So. If 30S doesn't come in a smaller LCP sized gun or a thinner than P365 option, it can still be a good advancement, but totally flop.

I haven't even mentioned the 30S currently is listed at 357mag ammo level pricing. Current 357mag pricing could spell doom for 357 revolvers too. We shall see.

[Doc Intrepid]

The entire thrust of the "smaller bullet higher velocity" paradigm was probably best illustrated by the introduction of the 5.7x28mm cartridge in 1990. As far as I know the most well-received platform for this cartridge (currently in the US) is the Ruger 57 pistol.

One of the biggest hurdles to any new cartridge is cost. Regardless of their perceived effectiveness they first need to establish market share to bring prices down. From an ammunition comparison between 9mm and 5.7x28mm done in March 2020 --

Originally Posted by Lewis

"In regards to price, FN 5.7x28mm ammo simply can’t compete. 9mm Luger is one of the most affordable handgun cartridges available. This is largely due to the massive amount of available options. (When writing this article, there were 218 different 9mm products on the AmmunitionToGo.com website and only four 5.7 products.)

The lowest per-round price for the 9mm Luger was only $0.13, while the lowest 5.7x28mm was $0.60 per round; that’s a significant difference, nearly 5x cheaper!"

Citation: https://www.ammunitiontogo.com/lodge/5-7x28-vs-9mm/

I imagine the same will be discovered for the 30 Super Carry, as it's design follows the same "smaller bullet higher velocity" paradigm.

The vast majority of American shooters are going to be price-driven. If this new cartridge cannot be marketed at a competitive price point, it may be destined to be the next "Ruger 57" in terms of market share.

[reddog81]

Originally Posted by Doc Intrepid

One of the biggest hurdles to any new cartridge is cost. Regardless of their perceived effectiveness they first need to establish market share to bring prices down.

And no one is going to produce ammo if the gun aren't selling. Conversely, no one else is going to design and manufacture guns if reasonably priced ammo isn't available.

[Jim Watson]

Right. I see Wichita Gun Club still has their Nighthawk .30 even though there is no shortage of people willing and able to pay $4000 for such a novelty item. Maybe because they wouldn't have ammo to shoot in it.

[TruthTellers]

Originally Posted by Scorch

As far as carry guns, back in the 1930s the 32ACP and 380 ACP were available in what was essentially the same gun (Colt Pocket Hammerless). The 32 ACP lost, people didn't consider it a viable round. Lots of cheap 32s sold, but they were mainly marketed to people who couldn't afford a 38. Yes, lots of cheap 38s were sold as well, but that's not the point. People didn't think the 32 was much of anything for self-defense. Would it work? Sure, especially in the days before trauma ERs and good antibiotics. Was it ideal? No, people thought it was a pipsqueak, half the energy of the 380 in a gun that cost about as much.

Fast forward to the 1980s. 32 S&W Long got a power boost to 32 H&R. The gun-buying public pretty much said "so what". Same for the 327 Federal.

I think the public's reaction to the 30 Super Carry will be the same. But it will generate fans, just probably not enough to make it a real viable production round.

I think people don't appreciate the potential of a 32.

Originally Posted by wild cat mccane

I totally understand your logic.

32acp was popular as it and 9mm came out about the same time. Then 9mm wiped it out. Here, 9mm was an advancement and won the day. Concealed carry didn't exist in the US, then it did and enter the P32 and P3AT. Bye went the 32 acp. 45acp and 40 gained traction, but 9mm came back to win the race once again with Gold Dot, XTP, and HST equaling results of the others without the negatives of either. All .380, 9mm, 40, and 45 FMJ fall within the same penetration spread, so it wasn't FMJ.

So, by this logic, it's possible for a smaller quality HST round to win based on merits. I got it.

Here's where this fails though. Federal says it is not for government or law enforcement. It's for the US concealed carry market. Ok. So scratch all government, police, and military contracts. So the tiny success of 45 GAP and 357 Sig isn't going to be the same for 30S. That's trouble.

Well, the LCP is the number 1 concealed carry gun in the US. Size.
The P365 almost killed the competition immediately to the point that all manufacturers dropped their prices by $100 just to get people to buy their Shield, PPS, LC9, G2, and even the G43. There is a rumored story of Taurus going into a free fall for sells in the US that the company was not looking good for revenue. That's even with the G2/G3 popularity. Enter the under $200 dollar days of the G2.

So. If 30S doesn't come in a smaller LCP sized gun or a thinner than P365 option, it can still be a good advancement, but totally flop.

I haven't even mentioned the 30S currently is listed at 357mag ammo level pricing. Current 357mag pricing could spell doom for 357 revolvers too. We shall see.

Something to keep in mind is that back in those days if someone wanted a very small pistol (think LCP small) back in the 1900s or 1930 their option was a .25, the .32's of that era were smaller than full size military pistols, but none were as small as a .25 was.

Today you can get a .32 in a P32 that weighs half a pound and a .380 that weighs a few oz more. I'm gonna repeat myself for the millionth time, but we all know a .380 in that small a pistol is awful to shoot, .32 has less recoil, you know the thing.

I don't know why .32 Mag failed in the 80s, I'll put blame on poor bullet designs of the day, lack of independent internet gun media, and the bad H&R/NEF revolvers that were chambered in the cartridge, but just because something didn't take off in the 80s doesn't mean it can't find a niche or increased popularity today, the 10mm is the leading example of this.

I don't think it is wise to compare the success or failure of a rimless caliber to a rimmed one meant for revolvers because you're directly comparing revolvers to semi autos and as we know the interest in revolvers is rapidly waning and that is due to their low capacity, slower reloading, and higher ammo prices compared to 9mm.

Ammo that's higher priced than 9mm is a pretty easy way to kill a new handgun cartridge dead, especially if its a smaller caliber. With .32 in revolvers the price for .32 Long is not double what .38 is and .327 is the same price as .357 is, just not as available or made by as many different companies.

So, where does .30 Super go? I'd need to hear how it shoots, it could have less recoil than 9mm, it could be very loud due to the PSI, these are factors worth considering and if the recoil is less and allows more accurate, faster shooting and someday the price of ammo can be closer to .38 and not .357... it may be worth paying the extra money for the easier shooting benefit.

[Willie Lowman]

I'll tell you what. In the last 10 years many new and wonderful CCW pistols have come to market. But none of them have offered much if any meaningful improvement over my old Glock 26. Possibly a few more rounds at the cost of a longer grip. Possibly a frame slimmer by tenths of an inch. But honestly the Hellcat or the P365 or any other new wonder CCW pistol doesn't do what my 26 already does.

That said I really doubt that the new .30 super is going to do something that a 9mm +P JHP can't do either.

Good on them for trying something new but I am not going to buy one.

[wild cat mccane]

If they actually DO make the 30SC in 380 sized guns, all these comments about reduced recoil are out the door too.

[Cosmodragoon]

That said I really doubt that the new .30 super is going to do something that a 9mm +P JHP can't do either.

I don't know. This reminds me of comparisons between .357 Sig and 9mm +p+. You've got to push your 9mm pistol pretty hard to even approach properly loaded .357 Sig. The .357 Sig does what people hot-rodding 9mm are reaching for on an every-day level. While this is a step down from .357 Sig, let's wait to see how it actually performs.

Contrast that with comparisons between .327 Federal and other calibers. With the right load, you can get better than 9mm performance downrange with noticeably less kick than .357 magnum, plus an extra round on the wheel. Sure, there are other considerations but I think that's pretty cool.

A lot here will depend on which guns are actually chambered for it, the specifics for those guns, and overall market availability.

[Cosmodragoon]

Originally Posted by wild cat mccane

If they actually DO make the 30SC in 380 sized guns, all these comments about reduced recoil are out the door too.

The LCR 327 is a little rough with hotter loads but with the lower-recoiling 85-grain loads, it feels like shooting 130-grain .38 special +p. Still, it gets over 1200fps and does hilarious things to liquid targets.

Some of that comes down to the grip design on the LCR. It is soft, locks into the hand, and has a buffer pad for the webbing of your hand. It's the same technology they use to make the X-frame grips so comfortable, but on a smaller scale. While that might not work on a semi-auto, there are other ways to mitigate recoil. I have mixed feelings about porting but the right geometry, ergonomics, maybe a rotating barrel, or even a spring assembly could make a difference.

So let's see what the choices actually are. I think that for this round to work, it'll have to work with smaller guns that people actually want to carry. With the Sig P365 on the scene, that's the target. If they do it right, it could be amazing. I'm just not keeping my hopes up.

[volkstrm]

I think I will get that along with a bottle of new coke.

[wild cat mccane]

Look at 357 sig HST vs 9mm HST.

1387FPS in 357 Sig vs 888FPS in 9mm HST Micro.

Which one is bigger AND deeper?

9mm HST 150gr Micro at 888FPS. Same with 124gf +p and 147gr +p 9mm. Sig 357 HST only beats 9mm 124gr.
https://www.luckygunner.com/labs/sel...tic-tests/#9mm


Federal is excluding 4 types of 9mm HST when they showed the 30SC vs the 9mm in HST. I think it's kinda obvious why.

[TruthTellers]

Originally Posted by wild cat mccane

Look at 357 sig HST vs 9mm HST.

1387FPS in 357 Sig vs 888FPS in 9mm HST Micro.

Which one is bigger AND deeper?

9mm HST 150gr Micro at 888FPS. Same with 124gf +p and 147gr +p 9mm. Sig 357 HST only beats 9mm 124gr.
https://www.luckygunner.com/labs/sel...tic-tests/#9mm


Federal is excluding 4 types of 9mm HST when they showed the 30SC vs the 9mm in HST. I think it's kinda obvious why.

You're a little too obsessed with what the bullets do in gel and use that to say 9mm HST is better than anything else and while the 9mm HST is impressive in gel that's not the only factor to consider and not one most casual gun owners or first time gun owners are overly concerned about. They want highest capacity, effectiveness, ease of shooting, and probably most importantly the availability of the ammo.

If Federal doesn't get the ammo on the shelves, then people will not be interested.

[wild cat mccane]

Because it is an equal medium used across all calibers that standardizes results?

[TruthTellers]

Originally Posted by wild cat mccane

Because it is an equal medium used across all calibers that standardizes results?

Yes, it's a good medium for testing, but you focus on the diameter of the bullet and penetration. Sure, 9mm may open up more and penetrate an inch more, but that's not solely what casual or would be gun owners are focused on. They want something they can shoot and can buy ammo for.

[OldMarksman]

I would not expect to like it all in a small pistol. The chamber pressure is high, but I have heard that the muzzle blast is not excessive and is much lower than that of the .327 Magnum. We'll have to see.

[44 AMP]

When dealing with physics and firearms, there is no free lunch. If you are launching a 100gr bullet at 1200fps there is a specific amount of energy as recoil. You cannot change that.

And while you can play a bit with the FELT recoil but the actual energy is a constant and when that constant goes in a smaller, lighter gun, it is going to seem more "powerful" than it does in a larger, heavier gun.

Put that amount of energy (as recoil) into a .380 size pocket gun and I think you'll find most people won't like the recoil OR the blast, and, if that's the case, I doubt people will practice much with a "snappy little beast".

Assuming of course guns AND ammo are easily and commonly available, something that seems unlikely in the near future.

[gmarr]

Just started reading on this new handgun caliber. Falls between the .380 and 9mm and designed for concealed carry. Some of the performance and stats look good. But, I'm wondering if a 'new' caliber is really needed.

I know it's not always about need but want, but doesn't the 9 x 18 Makarov fill this space? I have a PA 63 loaded with Hornady Critical Defense. Hit's the goal of this in-between idea pretty good. Also, there's a lot of .380 ammo that is pretty close to standard 9mm. Kind of reminds me of the .45 GAP. Was/is it really necessary when you can be better off improving the existing calibers?

[DubC-Hicks]

The big draw is the added capacity. 2 extra rounds in a gun the size of a Shield Plus or Hellcat, and 3-5 extra rounds in a full size double stack is enticing.

The issue with the 9mm Mak is that you lose power and gain no capacity over the 9mm Para.

[wild cat mccane]

Yep.

From the LCP barrel, the new updated Hydra Shok DEEP goes 13" with expansion. Check out the copper jacket on these things. It isn't just cut, it's folded thick metal.



That's better than some 9mm and 13" is what the new 30SC promises.

There is no way for this round to be made in the locked breech size of the pocket 380s.

[seanc]

https://thefiringline.com/forums/sho...d.php?t=613656

[Shadow9mm]

In short I think, with the 30SC, they tried to replicate the performance of a 115g 9mm, but with a smaller diameter cartridge to increase capacity. I think the choice of releasing it during a shortage was poor. I think it will not stick around. But that's just my thoughts, and I am no fortune teller. What I can say is I will not be buying one. I am more than happy with 9mm and the capacity it offers and I have many other other guns and cartridges I want to add to my collection before I would ever consider 30SC. But that's just my opinion, YMMV.