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Old February 17, 2001, 12:40 PM   #1
Glamdring
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I know the "under 7 yards" that are supposed to be typical, for LEO shootings. And that "5 Feet or less" is supposed to be the range where the real danger occurs.

But I am wondering how current this data is? And how the information is collected/reported? Is it based on physical evidence [ie empty brass here, blood there about 7 feet apart] or is it based on people's memory?

Was just re reading "The Tactical Pistol" by Gabe Suarez and thinking about the ranges at which TSHTF in the real world most of the time.
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Old February 17, 2001, 02:41 PM   #2
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I've seen various distances quoted by Mas Ayoob, John Farnham, Evan Marshall, Ed Sanow, etc., but the authors never seem to provide any substantiation.

Good question.

Maybe some of the "old time" lawdogs can provide some input on this one.
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Old February 18, 2001, 09:29 AM   #3
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Distance

DOJ says 21 feet consistantly. NYPD evaluated over 4,000 shootings and they came up with 10-11 feet. Regardless it is almost an arms length affair. It sure isn't like in the movies. Chuck Taylor refers to the NYPD stats often.
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Old February 18, 2001, 10:58 AM   #4
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How many rooms are more than 21" long? I would say an indoor shooting would have to be within 21 feet in most cases.
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Old February 18, 2001, 11:30 AM   #5
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According to an LEO shooting buddy, most police-related shootings are at around that magic 7 yard mark and more. Most civilian shootings are at less than 2 yards. Look at it this way, when the goblin comes to rob you, is that goblin standing across the street and yelling at you, "Give me your wallet!" or is standing within arm's reach of you at the ATM? Rapes, beatings, and knifings don't occur at long distance either and so those people who choose to defend themselves with a firearm are really dealing with very close quarters combat. Bar shootings, say over a pool game wager, often take place across a pool table.

As far as hit percentages, most police agencies are doing good if 25% of their shots actually his the suspect. LA boasts proudly of 28%. I have heard no data for civilian hit percentages. Just as a fun example, you all may remember the SWAT/Tactical team doing the raid in California on some drug guy. This was on John Bennell's crime show. The guy tries to get away in his black suburban and runs a gauntlet of SWAT members. This incident got some board time here because officers on opposite sides of the street were shooting at the vehicle passing between them and the commentator mentioned that it is really hard for bullets to pass through vehicles. Most TFLers thought the comment stupid and that a friendly fire incident could have easily occurred. I believe someone counted and came of with something like 40+ shots on the vehicle were fired by the officers. The suspect was hit once in the arm (as I recall). That makes for about a 2.5% hit rate by highly trained officers at ranges varying between 3-4 yards and 10 yards (or so it looked on TV).
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Old February 18, 2001, 11:56 AM   #6
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Also, for non-LEO data...even when you can get it there is a subtle but undeniable bias towards close range. If two hoods start blasting at each other and one of them hits, there is a VERY good chance that the Authorities will find out about it, and thus the data could be included in subsequent studies. However, if two hoods start blasting at each other and everyone misses, it will likely be chalked up as a 'shots fired' run which will result in a bunch of cops trolling the area and nothing more.

And we all know that close-range fights are more likely to yield hits. So if hits 'ensure' reporting, there is a definate bias towards the short-range. Statistics. Ain't it grand?

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Old February 18, 2001, 03:25 PM   #7
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The latesy data I have seen is The FBI study "In the Line of Fire: Violence Against Law Enforcement (1997) which found that the majority of officer involved shootings happen at 10 feet or less and in the dark or under poor lighting conditions and are over in an average time of 7 seconds.
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Old February 18, 2001, 03:39 PM   #8
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There are several complicating aspects to the question.
1) do we mean where it starts or where the last shot is fired or the average of the two?
2) do we distinguish between gunfights and shootings?
3) do we distinguish between incidents involving private citizens and those involving on duty law enforcement persons?
Probably others I haven't thought of.

As Glamdring and I have discussed, my five year analysis of The Armed Citizen indicated that 80 percent or more of the incidents occured in a home or business. This clearly limits the maximum range to around 21 feet.

If one wants to use the surveillance footage of numerous incidents in stop and robs, a common pattern seems to be that the incident begins across the counter at about arms length and immediately results in the combatants putting distance between themselves. This kind of incident would have a distance ranging from 1 yard to 5 yards or so.
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Old February 18, 2001, 09:41 PM   #9
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I agree with BigG. I were to encounter a BG in my house, the longest distance away that I could be would be 17 feet. So any home invasion scenerio for me would be 17 feet or closer. That's why I am glad I am trained in hand to hand and knife fighting!

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Old February 19, 2001, 12:33 PM   #10
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I have to agree with what I've read here. Violence is, in general, a very up close and personal affair, whatever the weapons involved. I've never heard of anyone being assaulted, raped or robbed from across the street - it happens up close.
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Old February 19, 2001, 10:38 PM   #11
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No matter how it starts, it will get way too close way too fast. I agree that in a non-LEO situation, the BG will get in your face quickly, which is why you stay in Condition Yellow. The other night, Thelma and I came out of a drugstore, and just as we did, a large young fellow got out of the car parked next to us (on my driver's side), and circled around his car to get between his and my truck. I stopped Thelma at the drugstore door, checked the area and waited to see what he'd do. We went to our truck once he'd gotten the baby carrier out of his passenger side and moved on with the kid.

No big thing. We kept 30 feet away until we knew what he was up to, my left thumb was on the truck alarm's panic button, and my left hand was at my hip. No harm, no foul, but if he'd started toward us wih a blunt object, or just waited blocking the way to our truck, we were ready to retreat back into the drugstore. If he'd pulled a weapon and started shooting, we were ready for that too.
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Old February 20, 2001, 11:36 AM   #12
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I liked Headhunter's questions:1) do we mean where it starts or where the last shot is fired or the average of the two?
2) do we distinguish between gunfights and shootings?
3) do we distinguish between incidents involving private citizens and those involving on duty law enforcement
persons?

I would say to #1 that I want to know both. To #2 yes. To #3 probably would help. LEO's are more likly to get in long range [long range for handgun fights] fire fights than off duty LEO & CCW people IMHO.

In the few LE shootings that I got to study in forensics in college the hit % was below 10%. Though that is somewhat misleading. In a real gunfight people usually use cover, if they don't it ends real fast, so many of the shots would have hit the goblin except for the cover in the way. This ties in with Cirillo's comments about only small parts of goblin being clear to shoot at in a real gunfight.

Or in other words if the goblin had not been standing behind cover the hit % would have beenn much higher.

One of the reasons I started this thread is because the more I think about troubles with goblins the more I think the real problem for an armed person is simply being attacked without out enough time/distance to respond. If that is a valid assumption, then shouldn't self defense course focus mainly on situational awareness [ala Cooper's Color Code] and techniques/skills needed to buy the time/distance needed to deploy a weapon? [I assume that empty handed skills while usefull are not a solution to goblin attacks for most people.]

What techniques and skills besides situational awareness are useing inside the few feet range?

Any ideas on how to get data on ranges of actual gunfights & shootings besides UCR?
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Old February 20, 2001, 01:05 PM   #13
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>I would say to #1 that I want to know both. To #2 yes.
>To #3 probably would help. LEO's are more likly to get in >long range [long range for handgun fights] fire fights >than off duty LEO & CCW people IMHO.

I agree 100%. I think that in most cases, LEO incidents are very different from those involving private citizens. Basing our concepts and training on LEO incidents is probably a little more relevant than using the Ranger shootout in Mogadishu as a basis, but not much.

>In the few LE shootings that I got to study in forensics >in college the hit % was below 10%. ....Or in other words >if the goblin had not been standing behind cover the hit % >would have beenn much higher.

I also agree on this. One of my issues in training and competition is the size of the targets we use. IMO, the QIT is the best target available and even it is on the big size for my taste. I spend a lot of my time shooting precision targets (3 inch dots) at speed at 5 yards because that's probably what the marksmanship problem is going to look like in the real world.

>then shouldn't self defense course focus mainly on >situational awareness [ala Cooper's Color code] and >techniques/skills needed to buy the time/distance needed >to deploy a weapon?

Bingo

>[I assume that empty handed skills while usefull are not a >solution to goblin attacks for most people.]

Bingo again.

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Old February 21, 2001, 12:13 AM   #14
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If you get into a gunfight with a critter, Mr. Murphy is going to be in charge of the distance.

The DOJ has a number that they claim is the distance for most gunfights.

The FBI has another number, that they say is the distance most gunfights happen. It's different than the DOJ distance.

LAPD has a third distance that defines most gunfights for them.

Other than to satisfy a desire for trivia, I don't see how knowing an arbitrary number assigned by bean-counting suits in an office is going to help your self-defense skills.

As a reponsible self-defense advocate/CHL carrier, you should be prepared to consider a critter at chest-to-chest distance (your common doper/mugger), across the dining room of a public eatery (Luby's cafeteria in Killeen), or from a vantage point (UTA bell tower).

If you decide that X number of feet is the distance that most gunfights happen. All well and good. I'm happy for you.

I would, however, suggest that you pay attention to other distances. You can bet vital portions of your anatomy that Murphy will.

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Old February 21, 2001, 08:43 AM   #15
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Quote:
Lawdog's signature:
"This," thought the Big Bad Wolf as Red Riding Hood reloaded, "is why I voted for the Democrats."
You need to take Red Riding Hood to the range for some practice. If she can't take out the Big Bad Wolf without a reload, she needs training.

I saw the Three Little Pigs down at the gun shop yesterday; they bought an AR-15, a Mossberg 500 riot gun, a scoped Remington 700 BDL in .308 and three Glock 21s, plus a couple case loads of ammo. I heard one say to his brother, "Huff and puff, my other-white-meat a$$! Blow the house down? Not by the hair of my chinny-chin-chin! We'll show him! B-dee, b-dee, b-dee, b-that's all folks!"

A bad time to be the Big Bad Wolf, no?

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Old February 21, 2001, 09:09 AM   #16
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We all have to prioritize how we expend our limited resources in life. Figuring out the most likely threat and then devising the most appropriate training response is a way of doing that.

I could spend a lot of time working on 200 yard partial headshots to counter a tower threat, but I don't think it's the best use of my time.

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Old February 21, 2001, 11:14 AM   #17
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Missed the point

I have purposely stayed out of this discussion to see if anyone came up with the logical response. No one has, so I will postulate the following.

People with a lot of good tactical and firearms training will tend to get into gunfights at a further distance from those who do not possess those skills. One very misleading statistic that is promulgated by the point shooters is the fact that most cops get killed at very close distances, thus we need to train to counter those threats, (point shooting).

But, what they do not realize or care to point out, is that these cops are letting people with guns come within a very close distance and ambush them. Cops and others, who are very aware and alert, do not let armed people get within arms reach and kill them. (At least not for the most part). They approach the situation tactically, using cover and distance as their friend. If a gunfight ensues, they take care of bidness from a distance and/or from behind cover.

Consequently, when training for that mythical gunfight, which catagory do you fall in? And, thus, at what distances are you going to train?

One should train, IMO, equally from 3-15 yards. At the shorter distances, incorporate movement off line into your draw and fire. At longer distances, incorporate use of cover. In addition, occasionally train at 25-50 yards, to know that you can hit a target at that distance.

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Old February 21, 2001, 12:27 PM   #18
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To quote myself "I think the real problem for an armed person is simply being attacked without out enough time/distance to respond. If that is a valid assumption, then shouldn't self defense course focus mainly on situational awareness [ala Cooper's Color code] and techniques/skills needed to buy the time/distance needed to deploy a weapon? [I assume that empty handed skills while usefull are not a solution to goblin attacks for most people.]"

Being aware will help. But it won't prevent someone from being able to attack you up close...it will just make them have to work or plan a bit. You can't pie every corner or door before you go thru it. Or when your outside at night you never know what the shadows might be hiding unless you have NVD.

It is very easy to remain unseen and undetected at night, specially from people that have just stepped outside from a lighted building, because it takes a long time for the eyes to adapt.

Far as I can tell there is no good solution to the stepping into the dark from a lighted building. The best you can do is listen as well as you can, assuming it is quiet enough that you could hear something. And treat those spots like the kill zone they are. Myself I often have my hand on a weapon in that type of situation, because I know I won't be able to spot a goblin in that situation until it is to late unless they are very clumsy.

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Old February 21, 2001, 10:47 PM   #19
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Proximity negates skill

I gotta agree with what Marty H. says.

I think it's Clint Smith at Thunder Ranch who says "Up close EVERYONE does well" and it should go without saying that ties are a Bad Thing in this business.

Doesn't mean we should ignore close up stuff. However, time/distance/shielding is our friend. Most people including hobby shooters can't hit squat at 7 yards under stress.

And before I forget, mind-set (including but not limited to awareness) is the key. Most fights I've studied were won before the first trigger was pulled. By that I mean someone had maneuvered the situation to their advantage early on when warning signs appeared.

I'd go on, but I'd probably become incoherant.

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Old February 22, 2001, 11:26 AM   #20
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Erick is that just for FBI agents?
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