Ammo shortage if Obama wins?

Colorado Redneck · September 15, 2012, 04:11 PM

In another thread, someone posted yesteday that a way to make money would be buy ammo now and sell it after the election. Having just retired, and since one of my favorite hobbies is loading and shooting, that stirred my old memory about after the first time Obama was elected, and how ammo and loading components were scarce as hens teeth for a while.

Any chance we are going to induce that same shortage again based on fear that laws will change?

5.56RifleGuy · September 15, 2012, 04:13 PM

Probably, but I think manufacturers may be expect it this time, and may gear up sooner.

NWPilgrim · September 15, 2012, 04:36 PM

Highly unpredictable. Plus you need to buy a huge quantity to get any discount. If you buy only at retail and expect to make profit on speculation then that is very risky. Better be willing to hold on to it for some time in case there is no immediate shortage. Long term you are likely to make a profit of sorts from inflation but that could take months or a couple of years.

Colorado Redneck · September 15, 2012, 04:41 PM

Sorry--My intent is not to buy up a bunch of ammo and speculate. I am a selfish old coot, and am wondering if primers or bullets may get hard to come by in a few months. Winter is a great time to load and shoot handguns at the local club (indoors.) Would be disappointing to have to wait for components.

Took a gift card to the local shooting store and bought some primers and bullets, just in case. See? I started doing what happened last time this shortage thingie came about.

Glenn E. Meyer · September 15, 2012, 04:55 PM

I don't think we will see a panic from anyone with a modicum of intelligence. I have a lunch bet that a new AWB won't be put in after the election.

I recall the mag panic. I just got a new CDNN catalog with Glock Mag prices down to $19. That's a drop. Wouldn't they stockpile them for the great freakout?

Let's keep off pure politics, BTW in more comments.

Shotgun693 · September 15, 2012, 04:58 PM

On the south side of San Antonio there's already a shortage of primers and ammo, at least .223. I looked the other day and the cheapest was about .60 a round. Primers were about $4.50 a hundred. The shelves were bare in many spots. I ordered some ammo on-line. I'm not sure if they're buying for protection from the riots or to use in the riots?

jmortimer · September 15, 2012, 05:04 PM

We know for sure retailers and manufacturers believe it will happen for a fact. I will side the the manufacturers and retailers as I think they have a clear understanding of the implications of a second term - just like last time -
9-14-2012 article from Wall Street Journal by Shelly Banjo "Gun Sales Hinge on Obama Re-Election" - Rational or not, it is all but certain what will happen - just like the first time.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...hatsNewsSecond

Glenn E. Meyer · September 15, 2012, 06:57 PM

I've missed the riots on the south side of San Antonio. Bass Pro has lots of ammo. Wally does too - except for cheap 9mm.

If one buys for the election, then you are just plain silly. It would take a veto proof control of the Congress to ban XY or Z. Ain't going to happen.

Spare us tin foil, please.

bbqbob51 · September 15, 2012, 07:33 PM

If there is an ammo shortage it will be for the same reason as before. There was irrational panic buying and what actually happened to justify it? Absolutely nothing. I seem to recall someone who posted pictures, either here or some other site, of their "wall of ammo" they had in their garage or basement. They and others had bragged about cleaning out all the stock in some stores.
I just don't know how much ammo anyone really needs, I know I cannot afford to go out every day and blast off 200-300 rounds of centerfire cartridges. I might go through that amount and more of 22LR in one afternoon and that is why I keep several 550 bricks on hand and buy a few each month. I probably have a total of 1000-1500+ rounds of 38spl, 357mag, 9mm, 20ga, and .223/556 on hand which is enough to keep me going for a while. I replenish them monthly by buying 50-100 rounds of each caliber depending on how active I have been shooting. Please do me a favor and leave me a box or 2 on the shelf to satisfy my modest needs.

jmortimer · September 15, 2012, 07:40 PM

"I've missed the riots on the south side of San Antonio"
Did you miss the primer and ammunition shortage? Unfortunately, I didn't and primers were unavailable or back-ordered for months. I did not hoard, but there must have been a whole lot of people who did. Many firearms are unavailable due to back-orders. Ruger stopped taking orders back in March. People may want to pretend it won't happen again, but it will. Irrational or not, that is what will happen. I'm no fan of the NRA but they are irrational as well as they have warned about how bad term two would be, real bad in the opinion of the NRA. Lot of crazy people out there. I think they were called bitter clingers.

Colorado Redneck · September 15, 2012, 08:18 PM

Seems like there was some impact on availability caused by military usage a few years ago too.

Glenn--I certainly did not want to start a political food fight. Just asking about the opinions of others. After reading that post I referenced earlier, I looked at Midway Shooting and some of the primer selection is already out of stock. I bought a thousand primers, and some bullets. Nothing that will change the economy, and by February or so it will probably all get shot up. I ain't interested in twiddling my thumbs all winter due to that same paranoia attack that happened 4 years ago.

This is similar to stocking your freezer when its forecasted that meat prices are rising (as they are now.)

thallub · September 15, 2012, 08:24 PM

Yep, i still have some types of primers left over from the "Clinton has ordered primers to self destruct" scare. i'm not into panic buying anymore.

gaseousclay · September 15, 2012, 08:46 PM

I don't panic buy because I don't believe any of the nonsense being espoused by other gun owners. nothing happened 4 yrs ago and nothing will happen this election. gun owners are their own worst enemy imo

WyMark · September 15, 2012, 08:52 PM

Glenn E. Meyer said:

Quote:

I don't think we will see a panic from anyone with a modicum of intelligence.

So you're suggesting that we'll see a fairly large scale panic, then?

Straightshooter629 · September 15, 2012, 09:29 PM

The ammo panic was the same as the Y2K idiocy...a fantasy that will never happen.

mayosligo · September 15, 2012, 09:36 PM

Most likely will happen again as this is what happens in all markets. Whether it is truth or rumor people will react and buy more ammo than usually which will affect supply, which will cause the price to rise when the supply becomes shorter. It happens. I would imagine ammo companies look forward to it.

**Tom Servo** · September 15, 2012, 10:11 PM

Quote:

I have a lunch bet that a new AWB won't be put in after the election.

You'd be right, but good luck convincing the general public of that.

The shortage wasn't caused so much by shooters as it was folks who just happened to own guns. Those folks heard rumors and innuendo, fanned in part by the media and internet, and they took it on faith that something was going to happen.

While manufacturers are better this time around about supply, I have no doubt we'll see some sporadic shortages at the very least.

45Gunner · September 15, 2012, 11:27 PM

Buy ammo for the sake of having enough to shoot when you want to shoot and perhaps a few rounds to circle the wagons and hold off the uprising when and if it should occur.

One thing we can all agree on, the price of ammo has been on the steady rise since I began shooting over 50 years ago, as has the price of just about everything else. Buy as much as you can afford to stockpile and consider it a hedge savings against the future rise in price.

Blindmike · September 16, 2012, 12:21 AM

Looking at the way back room deals are made in Washington I think the day will come when they come for the ammo or flat out ask for our guns. Will it be President Obama, I don't see that happening but time will tell. We all know the people who do not like anyone having a gun, commies and dictator types, make a lot of noise but it has not changed that more people are buying guns along with the ammo for the first time than ever before. And one thing has proven true, once someone can do something it is hell telling them they cannot do it anymore. Look how well that worked when alcohol become illegal. Can demand outstrip production, well yes it happens all the time. But as far as a president trying to pass a law to take away our right for guns or the ammo that is not going to happen in my life time. To change the rights we have been given since the very foundation of this country is not an easy task. Even the most left of our leaders know full well that if they want to stay in office that they can say all the B.S. they want to get support but action on some of that would be the end of their term.

Buzzcook · September 16, 2012, 01:03 AM

The Iraq war is scaled back quite a bit. So demand is lower from government, freeing up resources for the public.

Oh in 2008 the "surge" was going full swing making military demand even higher.

Kreyzhorse · September 16, 2012, 06:24 AM

Quote:

I don't think we will see a panic from anyone with a modicum of intelligence. I have a lunch bet that a new AWB won't be put in after the election.

+1.

I don't think we will see it this time unless after the election he really ramps up his anti gun rhetoric.

**Bud Helms** · September 16, 2012, 06:30 AM

Glenn has already warned once against political commentary.

Heed please.

thedudeabides · September 16, 2012, 07:16 AM

It wouldn't take an act of Congress to make ammo hard to find.

All the EPA would need to do is say that the lead in it is a hazard, or the primer/powder causes cancer. They could drive prices up astronomically for the presumed cost of clean up of using lead cartridges on public land.

Taking guns away would be harder, but it wouldn't take much to reclassify what is an "appropriate" handgun and rifle for a citizen to own, based on size, ammo capacity, barrel length, etc. They can use the recent shootings as an example, as they've been trying already to outlaw "extended mags." The media already thinks that 15 rounds in a 9mm is "extended" even if it's the stock mag that fits flush with the grip base.

Or they could do Euro-style and say you can't own any gun that uses a military and/or Police cartridge.

If you talk to many hardcore liberals, they really think that an enlightened society has no need for lawful gun ownership. And if you want to run the 2nd amendment through the mindset of creative left-leaning judges, all you may be entitled to is a single action breech-bolt operated rifle locked away in a government approved safe... after you have applied for all the necessary tax stamps, government approved training courses, been placed on a national registry of gun owners...

It's possible.

Not likely, but at least half of the population thinks we need more gun control.

gaseousclay · September 16, 2012, 08:23 AM

Quote:

If you talk to many hardcore liberals, they really think that an enlightened society has no need for lawful gun ownership. And if you want to run the 2nd amendment through the mindset of creative left-leaning judges, all you may be entitled to is a single action breech-bolt operated rifle locked away in a government approved safe... after you have applied for all the necessary tax stamps, government approved training courses, been placed on a national registry of gun owners...

not true. I don't know how many liberals you've taken the time to talk to but you'll find that a lot of them are staunch defenders of the 2nd Amendment. but, I'm not going to get into a political debate about it per the forum rules.

the way I see it, there are 2 types of gun owners causing the shortage: the ones that panic buy and wipe out ammo stock and those that buy ammo because of the panic buyers. either way, the gun industry comes out on top

Rifleman1776 · September 16, 2012, 08:39 AM

It is easy to feed paranoia.
That is all that caused the fake shortage last time.
I fell for it like many. I now have more .22lr ammo than I will use in a lifetime.

September 15, 2012, 04:11 PM	#1
Colorado Redneck Senior Member Join Date: January 6, 2008 Location: Northeast Colorado Posts: 1,993	Ammo shortage if Obama wins? In another thread, someone posted yesteday that a way to make money would be buy ammo now and sell it after the election. Having just retired, and since one of my favorite hobbies is loading and shooting, that stirred my old memory about after the first time Obama was elected, and how ammo and loading components were scarce as hens teeth for a while. Any chance we are going to induce that same shortage again based on fear that laws will change?

September 15, 2012, 04:41 PM	#4
Colorado Redneck Senior Member Join Date: January 6, 2008 Location: Northeast Colorado Posts: 1,993	Clarification Sorry--My intent is not to buy up a bunch of ammo and speculate. I am a selfish old coot, and am wondering if primers or bullets may get hard to come by in a few months. Winter is a great time to load and shoot handguns at the local club (indoors.) Would be disappointing to have to wait for components. Took a gift card to the local shooting store and bought some primers and bullets, just in case. See? I started doing what happened last time this shortage thingie came about.

September 15, 2012, 04:55 PM	#5
Glenn E. Meyer Senior Member Join Date: November 17, 2000 Posts: 20,064	I don't think we will see a panic from anyone with a modicum of intelligence. I have a lunch bet that a new AWB won't be put in after the election. I recall the mag panic. I just got a new CDNN catalog with Glock Mag prices down to $19. That's a drop. Wouldn't they stockpile them for the great freakout? Let's keep off pure politics, BTW in more comments. __________________ NRA, TSRA, IDPA, NTI, Polite Soc. - Aux Armes, Citoyens

September 15, 2012, 06:57 PM	#8
Glenn E. Meyer Senior Member Join Date: November 17, 2000 Posts: 20,064	I've missed the riots on the south side of San Antonio. Bass Pro has lots of ammo. Wally does too - except for cheap 9mm. If one buys for the election, then you are just plain silly. It would take a veto proof control of the Congress to ban XY or Z. Ain't going to happen. Spare us tin foil, please. __________________ NRA, TSRA, IDPA, NTI, Polite Soc. - Aux Armes, Citoyens

September 15, 2012, 07:33 PM	#9
bbqbob51 Senior Member Join Date: November 6, 2005 Posts: 775	We were our own worst enemy 4 years ago. If there is an ammo shortage it will be for the same reason as before. There was irrational panic buying and what actually happened to justify it? Absolutely nothing. I seem to recall someone who posted pictures, either here or some other site, of their "wall of ammo" they had in their garage or basement. They and others had bragged about cleaning out all the stock in some stores. I just don't know how much ammo anyone really needs, I know I cannot afford to go out every day and blast off 200-300 rounds of centerfire cartridges. I might go through that amount and more of 22LR in one afternoon and that is why I keep several 550 bricks on hand and buy a few each month. I probably have a total of 1000-1500+ rounds of 38spl, 357mag, 9mm, 20ga, and .223/556 on hand which is enough to keep me going for a while. I replenish them monthly by buying 50-100 rounds of each caliber depending on how active I have been shooting. Please do me a favor and leave me a box or 2 on the shelf to satisfy my modest needs.

September 15, 2012, 04:13 PM	#2
5.56RifleGuy Senior Member Join Date: May 9, 2010 Location: USA Posts: 1,212	Probably, but I think manufacturers may be expect it this time, and may gear up sooner.

September 15, 2012, 04:36 PM	#3
NWPilgrim Senior Member Join Date: September 29, 2008 Location: Oregon Posts: 2,346	Highly unpredictable. Plus you need to buy a huge quantity to get any discount. If you buy only at retail and expect to make profit on speculation then that is very risky. Better be willing to hold on to it for some time in case there is no immediate shortage. Long term you are likely to make a profit of sorts from inflation but that could take months or a couple of years.

September 15, 2012, 04:58 PM	#6
Shotgun693 Senior Member Join Date: September 3, 2011 Location: Poteet, Texas Posts: 959	On the south side of San Antonio there's already a shortage of primers and ammo, at least .223. I looked the other day and the cheapest was about .60 a round. Primers were about $4.50 a hundred. The shelves were bare in many spots. I ordered some ammo on-line. I'm not sure if they're buying for protection from the riots or to use in the riots?

September 15, 2012, 05:04 PM	#7
jmortimer Junior member Join Date: January 24, 2010 Location: South West Riverside County California Posts: 2,763	We know for sure retailers and manufacturers believe it will happen for a fact. I will side the the manufacturers and retailers as I think they have a clear understanding of the implications of a second term - just like last time - 9-14-2012 article from Wall Street Journal by Shelly Banjo "Gun Sales Hinge on Obama Re-Election" - Rational or not, it is all but certain what will happen - just like the first time. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...hatsNewsSecond

September 15, 2012, 07:40 PM	#10
jmortimer Junior member Join Date: January 24, 2010 Location: South West Riverside County California Posts: 2,763	"I've missed the riots on the south side of San Antonio" Did you miss the primer and ammunition shortage? Unfortunately, I didn't and primers were unavailable or back-ordered for months. I did not hoard, but there must have been a whole lot of people who did. Many firearms are unavailable due to back-orders. Ruger stopped taking orders back in March. People may want to pretend it won't happen again, but it will. Irrational or not, that is what will happen. I'm no fan of the NRA but they are irrational as well as they have warned about how bad term two would be, real bad in the opinion of the NRA. Lot of crazy people out there. I think they were called bitter clingers.

September 15, 2012, 08:18 PM	#11
Colorado Redneck Senior Member Join Date: January 6, 2008 Location: Northeast Colorado Posts: 1,993	Military usage Seems like there was some impact on availability caused by military usage a few years ago too. Glenn--I certainly did not want to start a political food fight. Just asking about the opinions of others. After reading that post I referenced earlier, I looked at Midway Shooting and some of the primer selection is already out of stock. I bought a thousand primers, and some bullets. Nothing that will change the economy, and by February or so it will probably all get shot up. I ain't interested in twiddling my thumbs all winter due to that same paranoia attack that happened 4 years ago. This is similar to stocking your freezer when its forecasted that meat prices are rising (as they are now.)

September 15, 2012, 08:24 PM	#12
thallub Senior Member Join Date: November 20, 2007 Location: South Western OK Posts: 3,112	Yep, i still have some types of primers left over from the "Clinton has ordered primers to self destruct" scare. i'm not into panic buying anymore.

September 15, 2012, 08:46 PM	#13
gaseousclay Senior Member Join Date: August 4, 2010 Posts: 1,210	I don't panic buy because I don't believe any of the nonsense being espoused by other gun owners. nothing happened 4 yrs ago and nothing will happen this election. gun owners are their own worst enemy imo

September 15, 2012, 09:29 PM	#15
Straightshooter629 Senior Member Join Date: August 30, 2009 Location: Columbus, Ohio Posts: 475	The ammo panic was the same as the Y2K idiocy...a fantasy that will never happen.

September 15, 2012, 09:36 PM	#16
mayosligo Senior Member Join Date: February 16, 2006 Location: Baton Rouge, LA Posts: 301	Most likely will happen again as this is what happens in all markets. Whether it is truth or rumor people will react and buy more ammo than usually which will affect supply, which will cause the price to rise when the supply becomes shorter. It happens. I would imagine ammo companies look forward to it.

September 15, 2012, 11:27 PM	#18
45Gunner Senior Member Join Date: August 8, 2009 Location: Boca Raton, FL Posts: 1,902	Buy ammo for the sake of having enough to shoot when you want to shoot and perhaps a few rounds to circle the wagons and hold off the uprising when and if it should occur. One thing we can all agree on, the price of ammo has been on the steady rise since I began shooting over 50 years ago, as has the price of just about everything else. Buy as much as you can afford to stockpile and consider it a hedge savings against the future rise in price. __________________ 45Gunner May the Schwartz Be With You. NRA Instructor NRA Life Member

September 16, 2012, 12:21 AM	#19
Blindmike Member Join Date: June 7, 2012 Location: Albertville, Alabama Posts: 30	Time tells all Looking at the way back room deals are made in Washington I think the day will come when they come for the ammo or flat out ask for our guns. Will it be President Obama, I don't see that happening but time will tell. We all know the people who do not like anyone having a gun, commies and dictator types, make a lot of noise but it has not changed that more people are buying guns along with the ammo for the first time than ever before. And one thing has proven true, once someone can do something it is hell telling them they cannot do it anymore. Look how well that worked when alcohol become illegal. Can demand outstrip production, well yes it happens all the time. But as far as a president trying to pass a law to take away our right for guns or the ammo that is not going to happen in my life time. To change the rights we have been given since the very foundation of this country is not an easy task. Even the most left of our leaders know full well that if they want to stay in office that they can say all the B.S. they want to get support but action on some of that would be the end of their term.

September 16, 2012, 01:03 AM	#20
Buzzcook Senior Member Join Date: November 29, 2007 Location: Everett, WA Posts: 6,126	The Iraq war is scaled back quite a bit. So demand is lower from government, freeing up resources for the public. Oh in 2008 the "surge" was going full swing making military demand even higher.

September 16, 2012, 06:30 AM	#22
Bud Helms Senior Member Join Date: December 31, 1999 Location: Middle Georgia, USA Posts: 13,198	Glenn has already warned once against political commentary. Heed please.

September 16, 2012, 07:16 AM	#23
thedudeabides Senior Member Join Date: August 22, 2012 Posts: 1,031	It wouldn't take an act of Congress to make ammo hard to find. All the EPA would need to do is say that the lead in it is a hazard, or the primer/powder causes cancer. They could drive prices up astronomically for the presumed cost of clean up of using lead cartridges on public land. Taking guns away would be harder, but it wouldn't take much to reclassify what is an "appropriate" handgun and rifle for a citizen to own, based on size, ammo capacity, barrel length, etc. They can use the recent shootings as an example, as they've been trying already to outlaw "extended mags." The media already thinks that 15 rounds in a 9mm is "extended" even if it's the stock mag that fits flush with the grip base. Or they could do Euro-style and say you can't own any gun that uses a military and/or Police cartridge. If you talk to many hardcore liberals, they really think that an enlightened society has no need for lawful gun ownership. And if you want to run the 2nd amendment through the mindset of creative left-leaning judges, all you may be entitled to is a single action breech-bolt operated rifle locked away in a government approved safe... after you have applied for all the necessary tax stamps, government approved training courses, been placed on a national registry of gun owners... It's possible. Not likely, but at least half of the population thinks we need more gun control.

September 16, 2012, 08:39 AM	#25
Rifleman1776 Senior Member Join Date: April 25, 2010 Location: Arkansas Posts: 3,309	It is easy to feed paranoia. That is all that caused the fake shortage last time. I fell for it like many. I now have more .22lr ammo than I will use in a lifetime.