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Old April 2, 2018, 05:01 PM   #1
Skans
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Which Guns Likely To Increase In Value?

What guns available new today, or even just affordable today, will become tomorrow's most desirable guns/rifles/shotguns? I know that guns are not normally great investment - we don't need to go there. I just want to know if any of you see some "jems" out there that are screaming "buy me because you might not get another chance".

Here's a list of guns from the recent past which I would have purchased had I known:

1. Bren Ten
2. Sphinx AT2000
3. HK P7M13
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Old April 2, 2018, 06:47 PM   #2
cjwils
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Impossible to know. 130 years ago you could have bought a painting by some wild, crazy Dutch guy named Vincent something for pennies. Now his paintings sell for $100 million. You cannot predict what future collectors will think is a great piece.

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Old April 2, 2018, 07:14 PM   #3
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I don't think special collectors editions and things usually go up in value that much. A lot of valuable sought after pieces have some sort of historical significance. I don't think there are that many significant changes/ different ways in which guns operate (contrasted with the turn of the 19th century) so you probably just need to get lucky and get a first modal of something that is likely to become historic (like a military issue firearm) or so ubiquitous that the earliest/ original modals become collectors pieces (Colt SAA or 1911)
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Old April 3, 2018, 02:09 AM   #4
Machineguntony
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It’s impossible to predict what will go up in value and what will not. Predicting any market is futile, and no one can do it with regularity. Even professional stock pickers, ie the talking head ‘professional’ stock pickers on TV, over the long run, do worse than the overall market average.

Predicting values of guns is no different. It’s the efficient market hypothesis at work.

But just for fun, if I were to pick a new and current production gun that would go up in value, I would pick some sort of metal framed semi/quasi custom gun like the Sig Legion. While it’s mostly true that ‘limited edition’ anything often times isn’t all that limited or special, there are exceptions, such as the Colt Grizzly or the Winchester 1 of 100/1 of 1000. The Legion seems to fit the profile of a gimmicky and flashy limited edition gun that would go up in value: it’s allegedly a higher quality and fancier version of an already high quality gun.

Plus, when all guns become plastic, people will reminisce about the old days, when guns were metal.

Also,
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Old April 3, 2018, 06:47 AM   #5
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Maybe a nice revolver like a S&W Model 60 from the Custom Shop? Who knows , not even the Shadow..
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Old April 3, 2018, 06:52 AM   #6
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Seems like it's mostly quality firearms that have stopped production.

I'm still shocked by the way Colt Pythons and stuff have rocketed in price.

What's going on with the prices of USFA revolvers these days? I honestly haven't checked in forever. Seems like there might have been potential at one point, but I'm not sure about these days.

Browning Hi Powers might be another one.
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Old April 3, 2018, 07:29 AM   #7
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The only gun I have that 1 day might be collectable is my grandpa's s&w model 10 5" and I think even for that to happen a couple million guns would have to go up in thin air. Come to think of it my 669 might have a better chance. One of the first actual compact 9mm semi auto' s. Still think prolly not though.
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Old April 3, 2018, 07:42 AM   #8
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Steel framed revolvers and semis not manufacture today, but still readily available, would be a good start.
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Old April 3, 2018, 07:57 AM   #9
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Generally the 2 required elements for a value increase are scarcity and market demand. Anything still being manufactured can only be scarce for a short period of time, so you really need something out of production for which there is demand.

Nostalgia plays a big role in this, as people grow older they want to experience the things they had in their youth again. The flip side of that is as that demographic dies off the value drops along with the market - the huge drop in classic baseball card prices in the last 20 years is an example of that. And certainly some guns fall into that category, old .22 rifles in particular. People now in their 60s and 70s want an example of that first .22 hand-me-down they had in the 50s and 60s. And since most .22s were well-used good examples are rare these days. But I wouldn't be surprised if the value of those guns falls or remains stagnant as the generation that used them as kids passes away.

Guns that were pioneering examples of a particular style or caliber or have a military history are, IMHO, more likely to remain collectors items for the long haul.

This is true of anything collectible, not just firearms. And, of course, anything originally sold as a collector's item isn't. Sorry about those Elvis plates...
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Old April 3, 2018, 08:31 AM   #10
Glenn E. Meyer
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One always needs to take a collectible's price increase and run it against the same amount invested in classic investment instruments over the same time.

It is rare, as said above, that one can predict what will have a massive increase that beats normal investments.

It is well known that in the coin market, modern issues quickly fall to bullion value except for a few items that no one predicted. There are items with equal mintages that are bullion and some that soared. No one knew.

Collectors should buy what appeals to them to collect. Dealers make money on the market interchanges and margins between buyers and sellers.

If an item becomes a collectible and makes money - it's a happy side effect.
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Old April 3, 2018, 08:35 AM   #11
Skans
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Quote:
The Legion seems to fit the profile of a gimmicky and flashy limited edition gun that would go up in value: it’s allegedly a higher quality and fancier version of an already high quality gun.

Plus, when all guns become plastic, people will reminisce about the old days, when guns were metal.
Valid reasoning - a +1 for the Legion.

Quote:
Collectors should buy what appeals to them to collect.
I agree - I like guns, but I would like to be able to set some modern versions aside that will actually increase in value over decades.

Quote:
If an item becomes a collectible and makes money - it's a happy side effect.
Not always. I have an AC556 that happened to increase substantially in value. I used to like to shoot it occasionally; now it is just too risky that something could break at the price these things are selling for today. Part of me really wishes it was still worth just the $2,400 I paid for it years ago.

Here are some of my thoughts, since I didn't offer any:

1. I have a nice Smith 659 that I thought would increase in value but really hasn't.

2. I have a Steyr GB that has increased in value, even though that's not why I bought it

3. I have a COP 357 that has gone up in value and I thought it would when I bought it.

4. I have a Braverman Pen Gun that has gone up in value and I thought it would.

5. I have 3 relatively rare assault-style rifles/shotgun that I thought would go up in value, and have, but just a little.

^^^^^ these purchases were made some years ago. There are some interesting bullpups and handguns out now that I might want to add to this list, but I just wanted to get other's "guesses" first.

Last edited by Skans; April 3, 2018 at 08:44 AM.
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Old April 3, 2018, 02:49 PM   #12
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Easy answer.... anything full-auto. Yeah, you have to deal with the nasty tax stamp but a decent return on investment is all but promised.

The only down-side is future transfers being made illegal. That would be a kick in the pants. Even then, there would be a good chance that the prices would spike as long-term holdouts finally eek in and buy that NFA full-auto they've always wanted and you could likely sell then. Depending on if the law gave you enough time to complete the NFA paperwork.
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Old April 3, 2018, 03:33 PM   #13
Nathan
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Can you be quiet about the revolvers!!!


Seriously, S&W built a nice gun in their blued steel revolvers from the 50's through early 80's. There will never be a common use firearm made to that level of quality and hand fitting again. It is due to the labor cost market and hazardous materials used. On top of that, a blued revolver probably drops from collector grade to shooter grade to throw it in a pail grade everyday.

I just rescued one this week.
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Old April 3, 2018, 05:15 PM   #14
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HK P7 - any variant
SIG P210 - older ones
Thompson full auto, any variant
David McKay Brown shotguns - he's REAL close to retiring and the shop will close
George Hoenig - rotary rifles and shotguns
Pre-war BOSS, Parker, Lefevre, H&H in mint condition
S&W Registered Magnums
Many Lew Horton S&W limited guns
Older odd-ball/limited release S&W and Colt Pythons
Mint Lugers, especially Nazi-marked
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Old April 3, 2018, 05:29 PM   #15
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Agree with the Sig P210, HK P7s, and the Colt Pythons.

If you are looking for an investment, I strongly suggest you look elsewhere.
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Old April 3, 2018, 05:34 PM   #16
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value

Back to the future, Doc.
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Old April 3, 2018, 07:07 PM   #17
Dufus
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I had the opportunity to by an Auto Mag for $230 at one time.

Now they are worth considerably more. Even the new ones are quite a bit more.
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Old April 3, 2018, 08:46 PM   #18
JWT
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An almost impossible question to answer. No one knows what guns will become scarce enough and coveted enough to increase in significant value nether future. Buying guns as an investment probably is not a great idea. Buy what you like, if it becomes something of value fine. If not shoot and enjoy.
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Old April 3, 2018, 08:58 PM   #19
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"He who knows the future owns the world."

(TXAZ, (c) 2018)
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Old April 4, 2018, 09:05 AM   #20
Skans
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Quote:
No one knows what guns will become scarce enough and coveted enough to increase in significant value nether future. Buying guns as an investment probably is not a great idea.
Yes, I know this. I already have significant "good investments". If I wanted to only have good investments, I'd live in a shack somewhere, have no currency, have no bullion, have no stuff, put everything I have in a well diversified equities/REIT/MLP/Bond portfolio and watch it 24/7.

But, who does that??? Some of our assets have to be "fun assets", and I happen to like guns. Some people like art, and others like antiques. So, it is fun for me to speculate what kinds of guns may become rare or more desirable or increase in value over time.

For modern guns, here's what I have my eye on:

1. K&M Arms M17S .308 Bullpup
2. CZ Accushadow 9mm
3. Desert Tech MDR .308 Bullpup
4. Kriss 10mm Carbine

Expensive stuff, I know. Thoughts?
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Old April 5, 2018, 02:42 AM   #21
Machineguntony
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Didn’t he ask for new and current production guns? Pythons and such are not new current production.
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Old April 5, 2018, 07:05 AM   #22
Bartholomew Roberts
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It isn’t just the item but timing. For about ten years there, my ammo stash was outperforming my 401k decisively. That’s no longer the case. My general feeling is that guns as a store of monetary value are a bad choice.
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Old April 5, 2018, 01:35 PM   #23
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What about the sw k.32?
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Old April 5, 2018, 02:28 PM   #24
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Foreign military issue guns and rifles that qualify as C&R always appreciate in value over time. Some considerably, especially when availability dries up.
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Old April 5, 2018, 06:07 PM   #25
RickB
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For handguns, nothing with a plastic frame, unless there's suddenly a sense, 50 years from now, of a particular model being especially influential in subsequent designs.

If future generations start grinding-up ARs, then a mill-run, $700 Bushmaster may become the greatest firearm collectible of all-time. OF ALL TIME!

The gun industry today is mostly about providing the same thing at lower cost to the manufacturer, so you'll have to bet on which gun that today appears to be a sort of weird outlier, like the Kriss .45 or Kel-Tec RDB, will become the "it" gun of the future.
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