Someone please explain to me...........

[Moonglum]

I remember reading that during the Obama years that Olin and several other of the largest ammunition manufacturers in America were running three shifts, seven days a week for the entire eight years and couldn't meet demand. The reason Olin sticks out to me is they even shut down their East Alton Illinois plant and moved to a larger plant in Oxford Missisippi.

That's a lot of manufacturing capacity.

I remember seeing a video about the East Alton plant and it looked like it was set up in Cells as opposed to an assembly line.

Even if they had ample supplies of raw materials just adding a few Cells wouldn't meet the demand. They'd have to build entirely new facilities, purchase new machinery and train new workers. During a Global Pandemic, Labor Shortage, Raw Material shortage, Manufacturing Shirtage. Good luck with that.

Telling people they should have stocked up when they had the chance isn't helpful. But I am going to suggest that should the opportunity ever present itself again it might be in your best interest to stock up then.

[cslinger]

Also keep in mind besides the costs in “stocking up” ammo is heavy and can take up a fair bit of space. Money aside many folks cannot devote that space.

Now of course I think everybody who owns a firearm should always have a little stash of ammo defensive and ball as that is totally feasible but the whole “stock up” so you can shoot when you want for x years may not be logistically possible for everybody.

Also keep in mind that there is now a portion, albeit likely a small portion but a portion, of 8-11 million new gun owners who now…….will have to “Stock Up”. So it’s gonna be a minute for the market forces to stabilize.

[44 AMP]

There is a point to stocking up that no one ever seems to mention. And that is, while its no big deal to stock up shoot, and restock during the good years, what I've found is that during the lean times, I've become very hesitant to shoot any of my stock up.

Because, I can't replace it for anywhere near what it cost me, IF I can replace it AT ALL!!

So, now I've got thousands of rounds and components, that are dear and precious to me, worth several times what I paid for them on the market today, but if I use them, or sell them, THEN I won't HAVE THEM anymore!

Such a dilemma!! What e'er shall I do??

[Moonglum]

My story isn't different than a lot of people's. I got caught short during the Obama years. I had a hard time finding ammunition and at some point I decided that if things ever eased up I was never going to get caught short like that again.

When the Obama panic eased up my wife and I started having an ammunition budget. Every week we put money aside and my wife kept an eye on the Internet and when she found a good price we bought as much as we could reasonably afford. We managed to put a good bit back.

I've already said telling people "You should have stocked up" isn't helpful but I want to mention one obvious benefit. I have no idea what 9mm costs now but I'm currently shooting 9mm that my wife paid 11 bucks a box for in 2013.

[jmr40]

I have seen no increase in the number of shooters at the range; you?
If anything, fewer people are shooting due to ammo prices/availability.

That is exactly why manufacturers won't increase manufacturing capacity. Over the last 10 years or so most of the ammo and even components sold is in storage in people's homes instead of being shot.

It would take a huge investment in new equipment to increase capacity. And the bubble is going to bust eventually. When that happens there will be a 10 year supply of 9mm, 22RF, and 223 ammo suddenly appear on the secondary market.

As it is I could live the rest of my life and never have to buy another round of ammo. I wouldn't shoot nearly as much as I used to, but I could make it. And there are a lot of folks like me.

Right now I'm still going to the range, but mostly shooting only stuff that I can replace. That means mostly 223, 9mm, and 22 RF. While prices are higher than I like, if I shoot 100 rounds of any of those, I can replace what I shot.

I didn't buy a single round of ammo or loading components for almost 2 years. Only recently as the most common rounds have become available.

I'm not shooting my other cartridges nearly as much because I simply cannot replace what I shoot at any price right now. I finally found some Lapua Scenar 139 gr 6.5 bullets the other day but priced at $75/100. Last box cost me $40/100. I do have about 150 loaded rounds and 200 bullets so I'm OK for now if I don't shoot much. I have 1000+ bullets for my 308's with plenty of powder and primers.

[Double Naught Spy]

Go to an online store in Canada or England--looks like stuff is plentifully available. Real reason IMO--Americans are in deep fear of of civil war/societal collapse /commie apocalypse and are arming up in case they need to shoot each other.

Think Canadians are arming up in case they need to shoot each other?

Shortage in Canada, Jan 2021
https://oodmag.com/ammunition-shortage-in-canada/

Worst shortage ever in Canada, Mar 2021
https://www.glasscanadamag.com/thats...guns-and-ammo/

Spotty ammo in Canada, Oct 2021
https://oodmag.com/ammo-supply-still-spotty/

Great Britain getting ready for the apocalypse?

UK shortages, July 2021
https://www.shootinguk.co.uk/news/am...ge-real-123049
https://www.gunstar.co.uk/community/...-of-ammunition

How about Australia, mate? Communistic concerns there?

Shortage in Australia, Nov 2021
https://straightshooting.com.au/ammu...plies-run-dry/

I actually have contacts in Australia who are having a bugger of a time finding components right now.

How about New Zealand? What is driving the shortage there?

Nov 2021
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/126...tional-hunters

[JohnKSa]

How does demand go back to normal when there are 8 million new gun owners?

You could replace that with:

Demand drops back down below the current manufacturing capacity of the ammo companies.

It doesn't have to go all the way back down to where it was, just down to where the ammo companies can get ahead again.

Also keep in mind besides the costs in “stocking up” ammo is heavy and can take up a fair bit of space. Money aside many folks cannot devote that space.

Ammo is very compact. Yes, it is heavy, but several thousand rounds of ammo will fit into just a few cubic feet of space if it is stored efficiently. You can put a lot of ammunition under a bed, or on the floor of a closet against the back wall.

It would take a huge investment in new equipment to increase capacity. And the bubble is going to bust eventually. When that happens there will be a 10 year supply of 9mm, 22RF, and 223 ammo suddenly appear on the secondary market.

I don't know that it will be sold, but when people feel like they can buy ammo freely again, they will start shooting up their supplies, which will result in the same type of effect. Ammo demand will drop off dramatically and that could kill the ammo companies if they have over-invested in new production capacity.

[Jim Watson]

There was a report that Sig/Mississippi is putting in a primer line to free themselves from supplier shortages.

So, now I've got thousands of rounds and components, that are dear and precious to me, worth several times what I paid for them on the market today, but if I use them, or sell them, THEN I won't HAVE THEM anymore!

I am keeping up a near-normal IDPA and USPSA match schedule, although with fewer and shorter practice sessions. I have a year and a half, maybe two year supply of ammo and components. At my age, the question is, will I be able to use them up and scrounge resupply or too decrepit to care?

[skywag]

That and Remington is JUST starting up after bankruptcy.

https://youtu.be/y6B8NpUDU4M

[bamaranger]

I would like very much to know what wholesale price is to the retailers and the price jump/profit that retailers are gaining from the consumer. I'm betting that greed at the retail level is a big part of the price jump.

I doubt very seriously that the retailer is paying a 150% price jump to the wholesaler.

[Unclenick]

This subject has come up repeatedly in the reloading forum. Forbes magazine ran several articles that explain a lot of it. 101Combatvet covered the basics pretty succinctly. Here are a few more details:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/aaronsm...-burned-again/

Also worth reading:

http://<a href="https://www.emilypos...nady-about</a>

http://<a href="https://www.emilypos...-president</a>

I'm figuring end of 2022 at the earliest if we don't evolve more COVID variants.

[Erno86]

I'm speculating...that the rise in "3 gun ranges", like the one on our outdoor range, is contributing to the shortage of ammo; due to the exorbitant number of rounds that those 3 gun shooters go through.

[Doc Intrepid]

Thank you @Unclenick for the link to the Forbes article - I'd not seen it previously.

The last sentence is a decent summary: “Whipsaw reactions, to meet demand spike, come with risk.”

Recognizing that its easy to speculate with OPM - (other people's money) it still appears unconfirmed that what is currently occurring can precisely be characterized as little more than a 'spike' in demand.

Obviously its a rapid increase. But a spike suggests demand will eventually return to what was previously "normal" month over month sales levels. I do not see this occurring any time soon.

Given the facts that the US (and the world) is (a) reacting to a global pandemic; that (b) has transformed US society dramatically; and additionally (c) exacerbated socio-political tensions and schisms that had already been increasing for decades to a point of extreme volatility - in which we do not have the political assassinations (yet) that marked the decade of the 1960s but in many other respects - the summers of rioting, burning cities, mass demonstrations in multiple major cities simultaneously, and rising rates of violent crime - we see as much if not more sociopolitically-based violence as was present in the 1960s - ....I tend to doubt that demand for ammunition will return to levels normally seen 'pre-COVID' for quite some time.

I would not describe the current environment in the US as a "spike" so much as the emergence of a "new normal". With nearly 12 million new gun owners between January 2020 and December 2021 and more likely to come in the near future, I do not see demand for ammunition subsiding to what was previously considered 'normal'....well...ever.

Conditions that caused that demand, both nationally and internationally - to include Covid - show no signs of diminishing soon. In fact, globally political tensions over resources (oil and natural gas); rising tensions with China over Taiwan and Russia over Ukraine as well as the eventual emergence of an Iranian nuclear weapon; and continued uncontrolled immigration of waves of people across Europe, Africa & the Middle East, and of course South & Central America to the US are certainly unlikely to decrease.

Life in the US is predictably likely to become less certain rather than more placid in the next two years, and even beyond - given domestic problems such as rising inflation and an entirely different economy that continues to leave many Americans behind as well as international political tensions, regardless of which party wins the 2024 presidential election.

We live in interesting times. I do not see any return to "normal" in our future anytime soon. I don't view what is happening in American society as a routine "spike".

Just an opinion.

[Erno86]

4 months ago:

"TulaAmmo Moving To China To Get Around Import Ban"

https://www.thepresscheck.net/tulamm...nd-import-ban/

[JohnKSa]

Obviously its a rapid increase. But a spike suggests demand will eventually return to what was previously "normal" month over month sales levels. I do not see this occurring any time soon.

No, it just means that it is expected to come back down to normal (or something generally close to normal) at some point in the future that is not terribly distant.

It doesn't matter very much to the ammo companies how fast that happens unless they know for certain that they could recoup any expansion costs before it happens.

We know from past experience, that spikes in demand lasting a few years don't prompt very much in the way of expansion investments on the part of ammo companies, so there's really no reason to expect that they will respond to this one unless it somehow becomes obvious that the demand isn't coming back down within just a few years.

Something will have to convince the ammo companies that demand won't drop and leave them with expensive floor space and equipment that they haven't finished paying for yet.

4 months ago:

"TulaAmmo Moving To China To Get Around Import Ban"

https://www.thepresscheck.net/tulamm...nd-import-ban/

In case it's not obvious, that's a satire website, not an actual news site.

Imports of most small arms and ammunition from China have been banned since the Clinton era.

[TruthTellers]

Originally Posted by JohnKSa

No, it just means that it is expected to come back down to normal (or something generally close to normal) at some point in the future that is not terribly distant.

It doesn't matter very much to the ammo companies how fast that happens unless they know for certain that they could recoup any expansion costs before it happens.

We know from past experience, that spikes in demand lasting a few years don't prompt very much in the way of expansion investments on the part of ammo companies, so there's really no reason to expect that they will respond to this one unless it somehow becomes obvious that the demand isn't coming back down within just a few years.

Something will have to convince the ammo companies that demand won't drop and leave them with expensive floor space and equipment that they haven't finished paying for yet.

Which is why I'm thinking and saying that current manufacturers are not to be depended on to increase supply, it's from startup operations like what PSA is doing with steel case ammo. Basically, if those already in the ammo business aren't going to spend money to expand then someone else will and take market share away from them.

[JohnKSa]

It's a risk. Maybe they will succeed and take away market share, maybe they will go bankrupt. The established companies feel like they have a recipe for success and they will probably stick with it until something forces them to change.

[zukiphile]

Originally Posted by TruthTellers

Which is why I'm thinking and saying that current manufacturers are not to be depended on to increase supply, it's from startup operations like what PSA is doing with steel case ammo. Basically, if those already in the ammo business aren't going to spend money to expand then someone else will and take market share away from them.

All the same "ifs" will apply to a new producer. If you already know how to churn out 22lr and don't see a reasonable return on new investment, being new to the business leaves you in that same market.

I had a client a few years ago who was gearing up to produce polymer cased 5.56 and 7.62x51 for overseas armed service contracts. These weren't the brass ended/polymer tube rounds from 30 years ago, but completely polymer cases. I don't know what happened with it.

If there is going to be a new manufacturer, I'd look for it to be a group with a different manufacturing method that isn't already mastered by the rest of the producers.

[Double Naught Spy]

Which is why I'm thinking and saying that current manufacturers are not to be depended on to increase supply, it's from startup operations like what PSA is doing with steel case ammo. Basically, if those already in the ammo business aren't going to spend money to expand then someone else will and take market share away from them.

Unless they are making all of the components themselves, they aren't likely to really take away any market share. Many, maybe all, of the smaller US manufacturers are dependent on the larger manufacturers for component supplies. This is a HUGE part of the reason why we don't see new startups coming in and dominating the market or even a portion of the market (say, pistol calibers) because they can't make ammo without the components they don't produce themselves.

[TruthTellers]

Originally Posted by Double Naught Spy

Unless they are making all of the components themselves, they aren't likely to really take away any market share. Many, maybe all, of the smaller US manufacturers are dependent on the larger manufacturers for component supplies. This is a HUGE part of the reason why we don't see new startups coming in and dominating the market or even a portion of the market (say, pistol calibers) because they can't make ammo without the components they don't produce themselves.

I'm aware of that and I did notice ammo companies like Inceptor shut down production because they couldn't get primers. This supply crisis is likely going to cause a lot of the smaller ammo makers and really all producers of goods to rethink how they do business and I doubt PSA is looking to rely on outside companies to supply them with components.

PSA isn't like other startups in that PSA is a prolific manufacturer of budget ARs and AR parts; they're a company that saw a demand for a type of ammo that isn't made in large volume in the US (steel case) and are filling the void that Russian made ammo cannot fill anymore due to import bans.

[Double Naught Spy]

PSA isn't like other startups in that PSA is a prolific manufacturer of budget ARs and AR parts; they're a company that saw a demand for a type of ammo that isn't made in large volume in the US (steel case) and are filling the void that Russian made ammo cannot fill anymore due to import bans.

PSA won't be taking market share from companies that had no interest in that segment of the market in the first place.

So PSA is making all of its own components? Really?

Just what brand name are they using for their ammo?

[TruthTellers]

After PSA starts producing steel case ammo in the Russian calibers, I expect they'll move to produce 9mm and 5.56 in steel and probably brass too. That's when they'll be taking market share.

[Double Naught Spy]

Which is not in their plans, LOL.
https://gundigest.com/article/psa-to...mmo-production

[Don P]

BINGO

you need an increased supply of the raw materials.

In my opinion the biggest hurdle the ammo companies would have in expansion.
Wife and I ordered a bar stool on Memorial day and were told 10 weeks. Last contact made to us is now April, 11 months later, maybe

[TruthTellers]

Originally Posted by Double Naught Spy

Which is not in their plans, LOL.
https://gundigest.com/article/psa-to...mmo-production

Baby steps. The demand for 9 and .223/556 is so much higher than all other calibers that once they have a factory running that makes ammo it won't take much to expand the operation.

It won't happen for years, but I see it as inevitable, especially since the Russian ban affects more than 3 rifle calibers, it affected all steel case ammo.