Is the .40 S&W REALLY dying?

[DirtyHarold]

I suddenly heard this over the last month or so which I found a little upsetting because I only own one 9mm and several 40s. Apparently police and secret service or whatever are all just moving to 9. Then I thought about it, 45 isn’t dead, 10mm isn’t dead, 357 sig isn’t dead (it’s less popular but making a comeback), etc.

What is everyone’s thoughts on this?


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[TunnelRat]

Those other calibers aren't dead, but they don't enjoy anything near the prevalence of 9mm currently. If you talk to the owners of LGSes the percentage of sales that are non 9mm really have gone down quite a bit in recent years. It's noticeable in that even companies producing new firearms, in a number of cases such as CZ, Glock, and SIG, aren't releasing them in those other calibers. They don't even bother, as when they do produce them in those calibers I see them have to cut prices to crazy low levels to get them to move. The 10mm is a bit different as it's undergoing a minor hipster-esque (no offense intended people) revival currently. But 357 SIG and 40 SW? Near me a number of stores won't even take pistols in those calibers in on trade anymore.

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[riffraff]

I imagine .40 will tag along for the 9mm ride with many manufacturers offering the same model in both calibers - even though .40 is less popular they can cheaply offer the option.


As seen on this forum, there are some who believe 9mm just doesn't quite cut it - those folks opt for the .40 offerings.

[BarryLee]

Well, for me it made a little comeback after finding 500 rounds of ammo while digging out the Christmas decorations. Back during one of the ammo shortages I couldn't find any 9mm, but ran across a lot of "forty" so I stocked up. Then when the preferred 9mm came back I sort of forgot about it. Oops...

[cslinger]

Yep. The last of worlds supply should be gone by around October last I heard.

[jmr40]

The original 10mm was a real step up over 9mm and 45. But when the FBI started using reduced loads for it the 40 was developed to be able to get the same performance from smaller framed guns.

For a while there was the perception that 40 or 45 was a better round than 9mm. But after about 20-25 years of use LE agencies started comparing notes and found that the end results between agencies using 9mm were identical to those using 40 S&W or 45. Forget about energy and velocity numbers, bullet diameter, and gel penetration tests. When you compare actual shootings statistically there is no difference.

The move away from 40 started over 10 years ago. It was small and almost unnoticed at first, but most agencies are replacing their 40's with 9mm now as the 40's wear out. In the big picture 40 is still a relatively new round. I think that due to the sheer number of guns in circulation it will be around for a while.

But I could see the number of new guns in 40 being drastically reduced in the near future, maybe even stopped all together. Ruger is pretty good at figuring out what is selling, and they no longer offer anything in 40. They have started offering several guns in 10mm lately. That rise in popularity of 10mm is certainly a factor among non LE shooters.

[Rangerrich99]

Short answer: no. .40 S&W is alive and well, based on how much/variety of ammo available. Also, seems to be plenty of platform options, makes, models.

[JMag1]

.40 is alive, but not well...life support, as it were. That’s the reality.


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[Kreyzhorse]

No, it isn't going any place any time soon.

[NWPilgrim]

There are a few million .40 pistols already sold so there is now way the ammo supply is going to quit. I do think with more agencies moving to 9mm there will be fewer new models in .40 going forward.

I am pretty well invested in .40 since the 90s, so I am not making any drastic changes to my inventory. I chose the .40 as an all-around cartridge to focus on in light of the times that 9mm and 10 mm were losing their shine and .45 was pretty much passed by with the high capacity 9/40. Now ironically, if I were starting off today I would focus on 9mm and secondarily 10mm and probably forego the .40 and .45 altogether. 9mm is super cheap these days.

[JERRYS.]

no its not dead, there are still a few law enforcement agencies that haven't caught up just yet.

[5whiskey]

Ehh 40. I have nothing against it, but it really splits the difference in 9 and 45 in the “power” (folks I’m aware that 9, 40, and 45 are all VERY similar in power... pretty much neck and neck with the advantage of the larger calibers being little more than larger holes and more momentum). I figured there is not enough difference in 9 and 45 to really split and have anything radically new or better. I like 45, but I am now a capacity wins man. And, AND, those micro ccw pistols are usually more reliable in 9 than 40 or 45, on top of being more bearable to shoot.

As to it’s death. No, there are enough pistols in circulation chambered for it that it is here to stay. While not a huge fan, I would absolutely own a nice sig Leo trade in chambered in 40 for the right price... and they often are the right price.

[JohnKSa]

Not a chance. It is going to decline somewhat in popularity, but it's not going anywhere. It's important to keep perspective. It may not be as popular as it once was, but it's still very popular--more popular than a number of pistol rounds that no one would ever worry about going away.

[Elliottsdad]

My (admittedly uninformed) opinion based on LGS visits, internet dealers, and this forum:
.40 S&W marketshare is waning. Pistols in that chambering are being clearanced left and right. It did start slowly, but it is now quite noticeable.
I have nothing personally against the cartridge, but I don't see what it does that my 9s don't, other than lessen capacity (slightly), slow follow up shots (slightly), and shorten pistol lifespan, in exchange for marginal power increase (though it does have more oomph).
.40 S&W will always be around, though. Millions of pistols are chambered for it. There will always be somewhat of a demand.
If I wanted one (I dont), I wouldn't let that current waning popularity keep me from buying.

[Onward Allusion]

"On life support"? LOL!

Not going away in this or the next lifetime. Every major mfr chambers for it. The selection of ammo make/models is about that of 38 Special and 357 mag.

9mm has twice the selection, however. IMO, 9mm is the "good enough" handgun caliber.

[JERRYS.]

Originally Posted by Elliottsdad

My (admittedly uninformed) opinion based on LGS visits, internet dealers, and this forum:
.40 S&W marketshare is waning. Pistols in that chambering are being clearanced left and right. It did start slowly, but it is now quite noticeable.
I have nothing personally against the cartridge, but I don't see what it does that my 9s don't, other than lessen capacity (slightly), slow follow up shots (slightly), and shorten pistol lifespan, in exchange for marginal power increase (though it does have more oomph).
.40 S&W will always be around, though. Millions of pistols are chambered for it. There will always be somewhat of a demand.
If I wanted one (I dont), I wouldn't let that current waning popularity keep me from buying.

I've seen this trend in my area as well. the 40s are being sold and replaced with other calibers, 40 cal can be ordered but very few kept on hand anymore.

[AERacing1813]

I had the hardest time selling my old M&P .40 Pro core w/RMR and also included 9mm conversion, no stores wanted it because it wasn't a "true 9mm", and same for many people I offered it to. I ended up months later trading it for a modified savage 110 in 308, which later on got flipped around into a few different guns which today is my Wilson combat AND my Ruger sr1911, all originating from my M&P, but I sure had a hard time initially finding a buyer for it just because it was a ".40"

Personally, I like the .40 round on paper, but shooting it... the initial "snap"I didn't like, especially having injured wrist, I just couldn't enjoy shooting it much more then a mag

[10-96]

It'll be interesting keeping an eye on it's lifespan, but I don't think it's anywhere close to being on life support yet. I can still get .41 Magnum, .38 S&W, and .32 Longs- when .40 gets harder to find than that, then I'll believe it's on it's last leg. Heck, I think I even saw some of that .45 GAK, GAC, GAP... whatever it was on line here a while back.

[TruthTellers]

Originally Posted by jmr40

The original 10mm was a real step up over 9mm and 45. But when the FBI started using reduced loads for it the 40 was developed to be able to get the same performance from smaller framed guns.

For a while there was the perception that 40 or 45 was a better round than 9mm. But after about 20-25 years of use LE agencies started comparing notes and found that the end results between agencies using 9mm were identical to those using 40 S&W or 45. Forget about energy and velocity numbers, bullet diameter, and gel penetration tests. When you compare actual shootings statistically there is no difference.

The move away from 40 started over 10 years ago. It was small and almost unnoticed at first, but most agencies are replacing their 40's with 9mm now as the 40's wear out. In the big picture 40 is still a relatively new round. I think that due to the sheer number of guns in circulation it will be around for a while.

But I could see the number of new guns in 40 being drastically reduced in the near future, maybe even stopped all together. Ruger is pretty good at figuring out what is selling, and they no longer offer anything in 40. They have started offering several guns in 10mm lately. That rise in popularity of 10mm is certainly a factor among non LE shooters.

The thing about Ruger not selling .40's and making 10mm's now is a red herring. Ruger only made the SR pistols in .40 and they dropped that entire line. Why the American isn't available in .40 Idk, but the American isn't selling well in either 9 or .45, so if you have a poor selling pistol, why offer it in another caliber?

The 10mm revolvers Ruger is making are intriguing as they use moon clips and .40 is like .38 Special to 10mm's .357 Magnum in those revolvers.

With how many used .40's are available at great prices, it's not gonna make sense to keep making brand new .40 pistols that can't compete with the used market.

For myself, I do like .40 in doublestacks, I think that's where it finds it's best use, and my .40's are Glocks and I don't care to buy any more doublestack pistols in .40 cuz I'm covered.

[TruthTellers]

No, the .40 is not dead, it's just maturing and getting ready for retirement. Plenty of choices for ammo, it can be kind of backwards compatible with 10mm depending on the gun, and the price for ammo and used guns is highly competitive with 9mm.

If any pistol caliber is dying, it's .45 ACP. Want proof? What percent of LEO issue .45 pistols? I can't name one that uses .45, so I'm gonna have to say the law enforcement agencies don't use it.

Want further proof? How many people do you know own a .45 ACP in a carbine? How about 9mm? Nobody I know has a .45 in a carbine.

I'm not saying it's useless or worthless, .45 is great when using a can, but for non suppressor use, the .45 excels in very few applications and price is one of the biggest issues with it.

[Lohman446]

No its not.

Its likely still a distant second to the 9MM in popularity of centerfire handgun ammunition. The thing is there was this perception that it would surely pass 9MM at one point because so many police forces and federal agencies were using it.

I don't think 9MM was ever in danger. It is used by military forces the world over.

So the perception of .40 has changed. It was second to 9MM and its likely still second to 9MM. The incorrect perception that it would ever surpass 9MM has simply been abandoned.

No I did not hunt the numbers. I could be wrong.

[IdaD]

I think it's getting largely dropped as a duty round, but there are enough handguns in circulation and enough people like it that there's no way it's going away. It's been in third place of the 9/40/45 trio in terms of sales, and I suppose it could slide a bit lower down the chart going forward. I have to think 380, 38 and 357 are pretty big sellers.

[Wag]

Even if LEA's stop using it, they will turn their .40 firearms around and sell them for rock-bottom prices to the general public. I'm guessing.

As for the round dying, I shoot 9mm three times more than I shoot .40 S&W. It isn't a dead round in my book but it's not getting much of a workout lately.

Still, if I'm shooting steel game targets, the .40 flips 'em over a lot more easily than the 9mm does!

--Wag--

[cslinger]

In all seriousness I can fairly easily get .41 magnum, .45 GAP etc., .327 and those were definitely flash in the pan rounds.

If I was getting into shooting today for the very first time, I’d get a 9mm.

If I already had .40s......which I do......I wouldn’t lose any sleep about not having plentiful ammo availability for my lifetime and probably my kids.

Hell I can find 5.7x28 fairly easily and there are what, like 3 guns chambered in it????

[CDW4ME]

40 S&W become more popular if a ineffective nationwide AWB with arbitrary 10 round mag limit and no grandfathering ever gets passed.

Limited to 10 rounds or less, many people might prefer bigger bullets.