Washington D.C. Crime Stats

[Uncle Buck]

Guys/Gals,

Please forgive me if this is the wrong forum to ask this in, but I can not find any google stats on what the crime rate has done (up or down) in D.C. since they were forced to rethink the position they held on firearms.

Has the violent crime rate risen or fallen?

Where did you get your info/source?

Thanks.

[Sefner]

Any info available will be very preliminary. I'm not even going to link to the FBI's UCR because it has a huge disclaimer right on the front that the numbers are preliminary. But you can find some data from DC directly. Remember, Heller was decided in 2008. That data I'm posting here is for DC. The data I'm posting for 2009 is very preliminary and will probably change. This matters because Heller was only recently passed in 2008. Let's take a look:

These are the homicide counts for various years:

As of July 16th 2010 for the year 2010: 65
As of July 16th 2009 for the year 2009: 79
Percentage change: -17.8%

Total homicide counts per year:
2009 143
2008 186
2007 181
2006 169
2005 196
2004 198

Total forcible rapes per year:
2009 150
2008 186
2007 192
2006 182
2005 165
2004 218

Total Aggravated Assaults per year
2009 3,295
2008 3,609
2007 3,566
2006 4,453
2005 3,854
2004 3,863

Total Larceny/Thefts per year:
2009 18,012
2008 18,787
2007 16,476
2006 15,132
2005 14,162
2004 13,756

Total crime per year:
2009 34,684
2008 36,945
2007 35,706
2006 34,457
2005 32,978
2004 33,252

Also, this source informs me that the data from 2009 is from the aforementioned FBI UCR, so the data is very preliminary.

I remember reading somewhere that number of permit holders in DC is under 100. Unfortunately I cannot seem to find that source so don't quote me on it. Either way, the number is very very low.

Conclusions? Very little. Total crime's upward trend seemed to have reversed in 2009, but can we chalk that up to the new CCW law? I would say no, because other crime is increasing, especially Larceny/Theft, which is a very "CCW-aware" type of crime (it's a crime where criminals are more likely to consider the fact that their victims might be armed).

One conclusion we can easily draw is that the prediction of "blood running in the streets" is yet again proven to be false. Homicide rates are down (and these are bodies, not convictions) in the handgun murder capital of the world.

And again, 2009 data is preliminary.

sources:
http://mpdc.dc.gov/mpdc/cwp/view,a,1...v_GID,1556.asp
http://mpdc.dc.gov/mpdc/cwp/view,a,1...,mpdcNav,|.asp

[Uncle Buck]

Thanks for the info. Ever since my stroke I am seeming to have problems recalling how to do things. If I do not write it down, I either forget it or get distracted.