November 3, 2015, 10:29 AM | #101 |
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That was why I decided to carry the gun on my body at home. I could picture no circumstances in which I would leave my babies alone in the same room as the intruder, even for a few moments, and even if the weapon I needed was in a different room.
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November 3, 2015, 11:16 AM | #102 | |
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oldmarksman
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There are neighborhoods where I would carry all the time, even at home. Apparently, that poster doesn't live in one of those. We all do what we think is best.
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November 3, 2015, 12:49 PM | #103 | ||||
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Posted by doofus47:
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BUT-- there have been a few very terrifying moments for some residents in essentially identical neighborhoods not far away. So--I choose to mitigate the risk. Doesn't take much to do so. It's not just the odds--consider the stakes. Quote:
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But I hadn't really thought about it at all. |
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November 3, 2015, 01:06 PM | #104 | ||
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November 3, 2015, 01:18 PM | #105 | |
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Posted by 45_auto:
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We have to distinguish between muggings, street robberies, auto theft, and the like--all easy, and likely if enough of the residents are lawless--and burglaries. In "better" neighborhoods, there is a higher likelihood that homes will contain cash, jewels, salable electronics, credit cards, and even someone who can be taken to an ATM than homes "where the poor are concentrated". Greater chance on a better return on investment, and burglars know that. |
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November 5, 2015, 05:03 PM | #106 | |||||
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If they know that, why do they concentrate on the lower income households? In the real world, the number one item that burglars are after is drugs (or cash to buy drugs). Here's a hint: if you're ever out of town and need a drug fix, you'll be MUCH more likely to find them if you cruise the government projects or low income neighborhoods rather than the gated, high security neighborhoods. It's not that hard to understand, burglars figured it out a long time ago. US Department of Justice: http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/hb9411.pdf Quote:
http://www.brownsvilleherald.com/new...cfe0b7262.html Quote:
The income vs burglary statistics from the "Prison Index" also discredit your theory. http://www.prisonpolicy.org/graphs/burglaries.html Quote:
It would appear that research by the the author of "Residential Burglary" also disagrees with you: Quote:
But hey, you posted it on the internet so it must be true, right? Don't let the facts interfere with your assumptions. Last edited by 45_auto; November 5, 2015 at 05:52 PM. |
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November 5, 2015, 05:29 PM | #107 |
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I agree with 45_auto. I almost never see a news story about a home invasion in an upscale neighborhood but hear about home invasions in "the 'hood" all the time.
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November 5, 2015, 06:05 PM | #108 |
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I'd imagine that most street level drug dealers report very little income. And in my experience they represent the most likely victims of a home invasion, by far. That might even out 45's statistics.
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November 5, 2015, 08:08 PM | #109 | |
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November 5, 2015, 09:44 PM | #110 | |
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The Brownsville article speaks of 7,574 thefts and 1,442 burglaries . we've already discussed the former; invasions of occupied homes are the real issue for the defender. 45,you have listed some stats by income level. I cannot imagine anyone subsisting on less than 7,500, or even 15,000 even in 2001, but set that aside. If you read your "Prison index" book more carefully you will fined that if you exclude the castles of Gates and co. there is no real reduction in burglary rate as the value of the home increases. The DoJ stats show roughly the same rate in rural areas as in urban. One would conclude that burglars are mobile The suburban rate is about 25% lower than the urban--not all that much. Would you adjust your security planning on that basis? Yes, drugs are a much more likely target downtown. But crooks who have learned something about the up-scale contents of suburban homes , from whomever, do get around. Not long ago I happened to be sitting near some tracks unarmed in a great neighborhood, and found later that a couple had been bound and robbed about two blocks away. We have shootings, robberies, car jackings, car theft, muggings, and kidnapping in the "hood" all the time. They present little risk to me. The likelihood of a home invasion where I live is less than remote; the stakes are what define the risk. |
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November 6, 2015, 08:59 AM | #111 | |||||
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Possibly crime is more prevalent in your county. Latest stats I could find here show 26 robberies in 2013. That made news because it was a big increase. There have been a total of 8 homicides in the 28 years that I have lived here. Quote:
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I define the stakes as being my life or my families life, no matter what the risk. Dead is dead in my world. Makes it an easy decision to live in a safe area. The risk can be a motor vehicle accident, suffocation, drowning, falling, suicide, poisoning, electrocution, assault, etc, etc, etc. The stakes don't have any effect on the risk (stakes = lives I care about) from my viewpoint. As I stated, dead is dead. I evaluate the risks and make an appropriate response. The stakes remain the same. Approximately twice as many people commit suicide by guns every year as are murdered in total by every other means. If the stake is your life and you believe that the stake defines the risk, the best thing you can do concerning firearms to minimize the risk to your life is to make sure that there are no guns available to you. Your loved ones are about as likely to die from a fall as from an assault. Do they wear a bubble suit and helmet all the time? Remember, the stakes define the risk, right? Do you wear a helmet in your car? Doing so would do IMMENSELY more to decrease the risk of death (50% to 70% of deaths in car accidents are from traumatic brain injury) than any amount of guns you may carry. I don't believe that I've EVER seen anyone wearing a helmet in a car on the road. Hard to believe that everyone in the worlds's perception of safety vs reality is that far off. Perhaps your viewpoint is slightly skewed? Risk of death during the next year: Intentional Self-Harm(All types).......1 in 9,096 Assault (All types and cases)............1 in 16,325 Self-harm by firearm......................1 in 16,831 Car occupant.................................1 in 17,625 Death from Falls............................1 in 23,162 Assault by firearm..........................1 in 24,342 http://www.riskcomm.com/visualaids/r...atasources.php Last edited by 45_auto; November 6, 2015 at 09:17 AM. |
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November 6, 2015, 09:42 AM | #112 | |||||
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Posted by 45_auto:
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One characterizes risk in two dimensions: the likelihood of occurrence, and the severity of the potential consequences. I assess the likelihood of a break-in of my occupied home on any one day as far less than remote. Over an extended period, the probability is, of course, much higher. In fifty-one years, it has happened. I consider the potential consequences of being attacked by violent criminal actors in the home, should it happen, as extremely severe. So, the question is one about how and whether to mitigate the risk. There are several possible means, all very easy to do, so I mitigate the risk. Quote:
If a person wishes to commit suicide, and I do not, he need not have access to a firearm. Access to a firearm clearly does not increase that risk for me. Quote:
The question becomes what and how to mitigate it. A "bubble suit" would not be either practical or effective, would it? So--I stay off ladders and off of ice. Quote:
If it were, we would likely see more of them. But what is needed is a means to prevent violent acceleration of the head, linear and rotational, in any direction. We have airbags in all kinds of places. Now, if you could have a system that would restrain the helmet from moving in the event of a collision, that would be effective. That's the current state of the art in motor racing. Bu I cannot use one in my car, so it is not on the list of possible mitigation techniques. |
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November 6, 2015, 10:20 AM | #113 | ||
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"There's lies, there's damnable lies, and then there's statistics."
"Any data, sufficiently tortured, will say anything a statistician wants it to confess to." Quote:
..... dunno if it supports the "odds" or the "stakes" crowd, but these are the folks that often rely on canes and walkers...... and for good reason. Quote:
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November 6, 2015, 10:34 AM | #114 | ||
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Posted by jimbob86:
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Good mitigation for the risk of falls, and, I think, for making muggers think twice. |
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November 6, 2015, 11:06 AM | #115 |
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By the way, it occurred me some years ago that, when one goes out through necessity onto ice covered walks and parking lots, (1) the likelihood of being attacked by violent criminal actors is probably reduced significantly; and (2) not only is the likelihood of falling higher, but the potential consequences are probably higher if one is carrying a handgun, due to the possible injuries that landing on it may cause.
There are probably several ways of mitigating that increased risk. The one I chose was to not carry under such circumstances. Within the home? Most burglars would probably prefer to stay in, too. |
November 6, 2015, 04:38 PM | #116 |
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no kids at home, just the wife and I. All my guns are kept in one of several safes, but the one within reach at night is not.
During the day, I usually have one on me.
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November 7, 2015, 07:11 AM | #117 | |||
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Severity of the potential consequences = extremely severe Quote:
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Last edited by 45_auto; November 7, 2015 at 07:17 AM. |
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November 7, 2015, 08:21 AM | #118 |
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45, it is well known that serious brain injury in auto accidents (and in football, for that matter) is made much worse by acceleration of the head and movement of the neck.
Regular helmets reduce the risk somewhat,, but not significantly. New racing systems restrain the head. The car must be signed to work with them. I cannot see how one could reasonably design systems that people could afford that would work with front seat and back seat passengers. Even if it were practical, the extreme restriction of in head movement, while an acceptable penalty on the track, would add considerably to the risk of accidents in normal traffic. Right now, the most effective risk mitigation systems we have include multiple airbags, harnesses, body crush zones and rigid cabins, headrests, shaped seatbacks, effective seat mounts and structures, seats that move to prevent whiplash, headrests, and, of course, multiple collision avoidance systems. And they are very effective indeed. They reduce the likelihood of serious accidents in cars, and they reduce the potential consequences extremely significantly. |
November 8, 2015, 05:24 PM | #119 |
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I'll toss out a few statistics that will point out that criminals are invariably stupid.
The average Convenience Store has around 15-20 cameras...so does the average bank. CS are supposed to have a max $50 in the register and a drop safe...on a busy day when the clerk forgets, maybe a few hundred. Banks have thousands at the counter at each slot. Conviction for robbing a CS gets you up to 25 years in average State Pen, hard time. Conviction for robbing a bank gets one 20 years average in a FEDERAL pen...easy time. Why do CS's get robbed a thousand times more than a bank does?? Stupid crooks. Really stupid crooks. So stupid it boggles the frakkin mind. It is why they rob local homes...its EASY. They know the neighborhood. They don't think outside the box. They're just thinking about that next fix, that next 40oz, that next hooker. That's it. Its why most ghetto folks never even try to leave the ghetto...and if they do, they find another ghetto in another city. The mindset alone keeps folks in the ghetto. It takes real intelligence to get out of it...not schooling, but intellect. Which again, is difficult due to how ghetto's work...stupidity is rewarded while intelligence is scorned. And that's the real problem. No politician will ever be able to legislate people out of stupidity. So how does that equate with home burglary?? Make your home a hard target. Burglar bars, alarms, big dogs...all reduce the chance of making you a mark. A simple burglar bar front & rear door that has a double-key lock THAT YOU USE is hugely effective... also give you time to get said pistol from said gun box/safe if need be Because, as was mentioned before, criminals are lazy and stupid...if things are difficult, they move on!
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November 8, 2015, 06:01 PM | #120 |
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Three serious crimes involving occupied homes that I can recall were committed by persons with knowledge of the valuables inside. One resulted in death to a resident. Watch what's visible when you have workers in; watch what you put out on the curb on recycling day.
We had not had a break-in on our little suburban street until residents started announcing their journeys on social media. |
November 9, 2015, 01:35 PM | #121 | |
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The Feds are not so forgiving when you monkey with their FDIC protected institutions. They can't let that happen, or the confidence in the Federal Reserve System, which is all the currency is based upon these days, would evaporate. It's always about control...... and they will do whatever is necessary to keep their system going. |
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November 10, 2015, 09:30 PM | #122 |
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I forgot to mention Florida's manditory minimums...upon conviction...
Have a gun during the commission of a crime, automatic 10 years. Use it, as in fire it, even if you don't hit a human, automatic 20 years. If you do shoot someone, dead or just injured, automatic LIFE sentence. So while some might plead out if a 1st offender, the state makes bank that they'll screw up again & re-instate the original sentence... Florida fines are, not to put to fine a point on it...quite substantial. Definitely not hurting for prison money, especially since they privatized many of them...which run less expensively Ever notice that private prisons never get media raids?? Never hear of Private CO's beating the boowah out of a prisoner?? They ain't Public Facitlies...there's a benefit there!! They save Billions in lawsuits!! And, being a corporation, can simply file bankruptcy to get out of any major awards & start over again. Florida has a nice racket going on...and relatively low crime for such a huge population!
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November 11, 2015, 10:23 AM | #123 | ||
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I'd have a hard time describing anything in the top 10 as "relatively low". But I suppose as long as you're careful to only compare it to the 8 states ranked more dangerous than Florida, it can truly be called "relatively low". http://247wallst.com/special-report/...n-america-2/3/ Quote:
Last edited by 45_auto; November 11, 2015 at 10:30 AM. |
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November 11, 2015, 10:39 AM | #124 |
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Convenience stores get robbed more often than banks because :
There are more of them. There are no armed guards, just maybe a clerk with a pistol. Generally, stores are near freeway onramps, major arterials, easy getaway. Robbing a convenience store doesn't bring in the FBI. Most people that walk into a convenience store to rob it blend in with the customers. Not true if they walk into a bank. |
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