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Old August 4, 2021, 05:36 PM   #51
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Yeah, I think the only people who are really hurting due to a lack of factory ammo are the handfull of 8mm Steyr and .32 French Longue owners.
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Old August 4, 2021, 07:15 PM   #52
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The only ammunition I can think of that is really completely out of production are things like Volcanic Rocketball, 7.62 Borchardt, 8mm Mars, or otherwise obscure stuff that never really caught on at all like Gyrojets or Dardick Trounds.

Otherwise, metallic cartridge ammunition of basically every cartridge that was ever popular, even if only for a very short time, is still in at least limited production. Heck, there are even specialty manufacturers of old black powder paper cartridges.

So it always amazes me when folks make comments that the .40 S&W cartridge will cease production altogether soon. Folks seem to think that because .40 S&W was only popular for about a decade and a half, that means only very few pistols were chambered in cartridge, but no, it was so insanely popular that millions and millions of pistols were in production during that time, and certain .40cal pistols such as the M&P40 and Glock 22/23 are still in production.
Besides, .45 Long Colt was really only popular with the Military/Law Enforcement for about 10 years, yet the cartridge is still in production today, as are various configurations of the Colt Single Action Army, so whose to say that it won't be the same for .40 S&W a century from now, with the cartridge as well as various reproductions of the Glock 22 still in production in the year 2121?
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Old August 4, 2021, 09:26 PM   #53
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The only ammunition I can think of that is really completely out of production are things like Volcanic Rocketball, 7.62 Borchardt, 8mm Mars, or otherwise obscure stuff that never really caught on at all like Gyrojets or Dardick Trounds.

Otherwise, metallic cartridge ammunition of basically every cartridge that was ever popular, even if only for a very short time, is still in at least limited production. Heck, there are even specialty manufacturers of old black powder paper cartridges.

So it always amazes me when folks make comments that the .40 S&W cartridge will cease production altogether soon. Folks seem to think that because .40 S&W was only popular for about a decade and a half, that means only very few pistols were chambered in cartridge, but no, it was so insanely popular that millions and millions of pistols were in production during that time, and certain .40cal pistols such as the M&P40 and Glock 22/23 are still in production.
Besides, .45 Long Colt was really only popular with the Military/Law Enforcement for about 10 years, yet the cartridge is still in production today, as are various configurations of the Colt Single Action Army, so whose to say that it won't be the same for .40 S&W a century from now, with the cartridge as well as various reproductions of the Glock 22 still in production in the year 2121?
.32, .38, .41 Rimfire and .44 Henry and .56-50 Spencer owners would disagree with you there. IDK when manufacturing of ammo in those calibers ended, but those were all popular black powder cartridges and I think .32 Rimfire was loaded with smokeless powder at some point.

But the reason the rimfires went away was more than likely because they weren't reloadable and centerfire ammo was more reliable. I don't think .40 S&W is going to go the way of rimfires or less popular centerfires.

I think 30 years from now there's probably going to be a resurgence of .40 because people will be into vintage early police semi autos like Gen 1 and Gen 2 Glocks, Ruger P series, S&W 5900's, and Beretta 92's and 96's.
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Old August 5, 2021, 05:45 AM   #54
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Canik TP9SF/TP9SFX. We know a new TP9SFX version 2 is coming. Turkey is having a hard time sourcing parts to bring it to the US. When it does, all version will get an update as its rumored to improve everything.
I’m really interested if they can maintain their price point.
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Old August 5, 2021, 08:17 AM   #55
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Anything .40S&W. Ammo will be extremely hard to come by and get even harder as new arms aren't chambered for it.
Yep, definitely this.

Plus, with the 10mm AUTO being in resurgence, you really don't need the .40. You can buy, or handload, all energy levels of the 10mm - from mild (40-level) to wild (full-power/max).

The 40's only real appeal was that it could be had in 9mm-sized semi-autos back in the day when the 9mm was still regarded as an "anemic" cartridge, generally in L.E. circles but by a lot of civies as well.

Now that current bullet technology has made the 9mm "combat effective" for street use, the real choices are between it and either the 10mm or .45acp.
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Old August 5, 2021, 02:32 PM   #56
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Yep, definitely this.

Plus, with the 10mm AUTO being in resurgence, you really don't need the .40. You can buy, or handload, all energy levels of the 10mm - from mild (40-level) to wild (full-power/max).

The 40's only real appeal was that it could be had in 9mm-sized semi-autos back in the day when the 9mm was still regarded as an "anemic" cartridge, generally in L.E. circles but by a lot of civies as well.

Now that current bullet technology has made the 9mm "combat effective" for street use, the real choices are between it and either the 10mm or .45acp.
I don't think the .45 has much of a future as a carry gun and I do see its popularity waning over time because the capacity for anything that's not a full size like Glock 21 or FN FNX is not good and the price for the ammo is likely going to be over $20 a box once prices settle down.

Also, let's face it, the biggest proponents of .45 ACP are generally older shooters and I don't see them getting replaced by younger shooters who have all largely embraced 9mm and if they do go for more power in a handgun seem to be opting for 10mm instead.
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Old August 5, 2021, 03:26 PM   #57
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The 10mm will never come close to the 40 in sales or popularity.
Besides, the 9mm is not the only cartridge to benefit from advances in bullet technology.
I don't think that Keltec 5.7 that holds $$$$ of ammunition will enjoy a long run.
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Old August 5, 2021, 05:21 PM   #58
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Anything that doesn't meet sales expectations
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Old August 6, 2021, 08:38 AM   #59
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The 10mm will never come close to the 40 in sales or popularity.
You're focusing on a snap-shot of this moment. It's a clear trend: the .40 is in decline; the 10mm AUTO has been, and still is, in resurgence. Check back in 5 years.

Yeah ammo-wise, the .40 will hang around, but if you own a 10mm pistol with barrel-swapping capability (like the 10mm Glocks and possibly a 1911 in 10mm), you have zero need for a 40 pistol. Just get an aftermarket drop-in (or fitted) .40 barrel.

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Besides, the 9mm is not the only cartridge to benefit from advances in bullet technology.
Dude, thanks for re-inforcing my point in my earlier post. Ever hear the phrase: "A rising tide lifts all boats"?

That's ALL boats - big, medium, and small. Improvements in bullet technology for one handgun cartridge cross-pollinate their ballistic benefits to projectiles made for other handgun cartridges. So improvements that benefited .355/9mm projectiles carry over to benefit projectiles for other "service cartridges," like the 10mm, 40S&W, and .45acp.

To be fair, the 9mm might well have gained the most "ballistic" ground from those improvements because it was, historically, the most anemic to start with. Except now, the "new & improved" 9mm has essentially cancelled out the entire raison d'etre for the 40S&W - i.e., a round with low-end 10mm "stopping power" stuffed into a 9mm-sized gun.

Now it's just the 9mm, 10mm, or 45acp.

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I don't think that Keltec 5.7 that holds $$$$ of ammunition will enjoy a long run.
Now yeah, I can agree with that. The 5.7 is also a nichey sort of hobby cartridge. Fun for range days maybe, but that's about it.
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Old August 6, 2021, 10:05 AM   #60
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I kind-of doubt that.. the TS2 is single action only so it's not legal for Production division.
But the Shadow 2 is legal and arguably one of CZ's best selling models.
Agreed. The TS2 is most definitely not a replacement for the Shadow 2. Both are fantastic pistols, but fit two different roles.

That doesn’t mean there might not be a Shadow 3 one day.
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Old August 6, 2021, 01:31 PM   #61
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Yep. I'm tots wrong on the TS2 replacing Shadow 2.

The TS2 is new and there are a million out there right now. Since this is clearly a shipment, I assumed that there are zero Shadows to buy right now, the TS2 replaced it.

Silly gamers making rulls up to have specific guns
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Old August 6, 2021, 02:27 PM   #62
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Silly gamers making rulls up to have specific guns
Haha. I purchased a Shadow 2 a few months ago. I don’t compete with it. I just picked it up as a pure toy - to have a fun high-quality all-steel 9mm to shoot for the pure enjoyment of it.

It’s definitely a gamer gun posing as a service pistol, and I imagine it must be like using a cheat code for USPSA Production Class.
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Old August 6, 2021, 04:14 PM   #63
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Besides, .45 Long Colt was really only popular with the Military/Law Enforcement for about 10 years, yet the cartridge is still in production today,...
How you you define "really popular"? Not that it matters, I'm just curious. And I' d be inclined to dispute "for about 10 years" as well, the .45 Colt being the official US Army cartridge from 1873 to 1892. So, that's 19 years as the official pistol round for the Army, and it kept quite a bit of popularity with LEOs, especially those in rural areas where as late as WWII part or often most of their patrol time was done on horseback .

Until the appearance of the .357 Magnum in 1935, the .45 Colt was regarded as the most powerful pistol round commonly available.

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The 40's only real appeal was that it could be had in 9mm-sized semi-autos back in the day when the 9mm was still regarded as an "anemic" cartridge, generally in L.E. circles but by a lot of civies as well.

Now that current bullet technology has made the 9mm "combat effective" for street use, the real choices are between it and either the 10mm or .45acp.
I would point out that more than 40years ago the 9mm Luger met or exceeded all the FBI's requirements and was adopted as their service round. Until it got the official blame for the fiasco in Miami in 86.

so the 9mm was out. New standards were developed, the 10mm was going to be the new round, but there were problems with that, too. Mostly due to many agents not being able to handle the "big" 10mm guns as well as desired. S&W came up the solution, a new round that gave the desired performance AND fit in 9mm frame size guns. Win/win...for a while...

Now, thanks to "advances in bullet technology" the FBI has gone back to the 9mm. SO far, it seems to be working well enough. Wonder what hoops they will create to jump through when a real world shootout comes along where it fails "again"....

The real world is the real world and in the real world there is no magic bullet that works 100% of the time. EVERYTHING fails, even the vaunted .45. The best things run in the 90%+ range. NOTHING is 100% not even 12ga slugs.

And in the real world, the guns most likely to be discontinued are the ones where the makers have the least amount of prestige and money invested, and which are also returning lower than desired profits.
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Old August 7, 2021, 09:24 PM   #64
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No one owns a crystal ball that REALLY works...........AND. reloaders and wildcatters can make almost any cartridge go on for ever As an example. I bought my first 40 smith & Wesson in 1989 when they first came out.. There was NO ammo or brass readily available. I cut down and inside neck reamed 10mm brass to 40 dimensions and shot it a lot until 40 S&W ammo/brass became common.
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Old August 9, 2021, 10:08 AM   #65
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Which handguns do you think will be discontinued soon?
That's a loaded question. It really doesn't matter for those under 50 because by that time they will be shooting rubber bands.
Rocks & Sticks will of course be illegal.
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Old August 9, 2021, 03:53 PM   #66
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Wonder if the Sig 2022 will live on given that date in the name is the end date of the line?
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Old August 9, 2021, 06:41 PM   #67
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I can still get ammo for my Japan Nambu from the 1930s. Just saying.
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Old August 9, 2021, 07:34 PM   #68
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I don’t own a 40SW currently, but I don’t know that its future is as bleak as some here think. As of now the 40SW is the only cartridge other than 9mm for which Glock has released a Gen 5 pistol. Glock is by no means the firearm industry into itself, but I feel like if the 40SW was truly in its death spiral then Glock wouldn’t have even bothered.


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Old August 10, 2021, 10:41 AM   #69
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Right on one.

New Canik released today for the SFX and SF line. Bye bye SFX and SF line.
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Old August 10, 2021, 11:57 AM   #70
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Not scientific but..........
GB has,
1,321 40 S&W pistols for sale, 619 of them "New".
339 10mm, 263 "New" and many of them are pretty pricey.
I don't see the 40 disappearing before the 10.
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Old August 13, 2021, 10:33 AM   #71
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I don't think the .45 has much of a future as a carry gun and I do see its popularity waning over time because the capacity for anything that's not a full size like Glock 21 or FN FNX is not good and the price for the ammo is likely going to be over $20 a box once prices settle down.

Also, let's face it, the biggest proponents of .45 ACP are generally older shooters and I don't see them getting replaced by younger shooters who have all largely embraced 9mm and if they do go for more power in a handgun seem to be opting for 10mm instead.
I don't know about that, I hope that you are wrong because I love the 45 ACP.

I do agree that the 45 will play second fiddle to 9mm (it already does), and it may wane a bit in appeal compared to the rising popularity of the 10mm, but there is no chance that it will disappear as a popular pistol carry cartridge. It has some unique characteristics that make it desirable, and the price is already down to $0.42 per round and keeps dropping. 10mm is at least 50% more expensive.

In my opinion this would be like thinking that the 30-06 does not have a future as a hunting round because of the popularity of .308 and 6.5 Creedmore. There is room in the shooting market for all.

Speaking of those who "go for more power in a handgun", for the life of me I do NOT UNDERSTAND why those in the 45 ACP community have not embraced the 45 Super and .450 SMC loads. In my opinion these bring the .45 caliber to its full potential, and most 45 ACP shooters don't know about them!!
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Old August 13, 2021, 10:50 AM   #72
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I don't know, I hope that you are wrong because I love the 45 ACP.

I do agree that the 45 will play second fiddle to 9mm (it already does), and it may wane a bit in appeal compared to the rising popularity of the 10mm, but there is no chance that it will disappear as a popular pistol carry cartridge. It has some unique characteristics that make it desirable, and the price is already down to $0.42 per round and keeps dropping. 10mm is at least 50% more expensive.

In my opinion this would be like thinking that the 30-06 does not have a future as a hunting round because of the popularity of .308 and 6.5 Creedmore. There is room in the shooting market for all.

I think 30-06 will be kept around even if just to support the many, many US military surplus rifles in that caliber.

I used to think 45 ACP would never disappear simply because many Americans enjoy 1911s. While I think that’s still true to an extent, I’m seeing more and more 1911s in calibers other than 45 ACP (9mm and 10mm) both in stores and at the range.


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Old August 14, 2021, 03:35 AM   #73
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I don't know about that, I hope that you are wrong because I love the 45 ACP.

I do agree that the 45 will play second fiddle to 9mm (it already does), and it may wane a bit in appeal compared to the rising popularity of the 10mm, but there is no chance that it will disappear as a popular pistol carry cartridge. It has some unique characteristics that make it desirable, and the price is already down to $0.42 per round and keeps dropping. 10mm is at least 50% more expensive.

In my opinion this would be like thinking that the 30-06 does not have a future as a hunting round because of the popularity of .308 and 6.5 Creedmore. There is room in the shooting market for all.

Speaking of those who "go for more power in a handgun", for the life of me I do NOT UNDERSTAND why those in the 45 ACP community have not embraced the 45 Super and .450 SMC loads. In my opinion these bring the .45 caliber to its full potential, and most 45 ACP shooters don't know about them!!
I said carry gun, not range gun. People are still going to buy .45's because it does have some quirks that make it well suited as a target caliber or competition caliber, but for field use I see more people embracing 10mm over it while for concealed carry the 9mm is the king.

I don't know who is going to one day decide their 12rd Ruger Max 9 is no longer doing it for them and they decide to go with a 5+1 single stack .45 ACP instead.
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Old August 15, 2021, 08:40 AM   #74
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I do agree that the 45 will play second fiddle to 9mm (it already does), and it may wane a bit in appeal compared to the rising popularity of the 10mm, but there is no chance that it will disappear as a popular pistol carry cartridge. It has some unique characteristics that make it desirable, and the price is already down to $0.42 per round and keeps dropping. 10mm is at least 50% more expensive.
Actually that's not the case, expect maybe at the one-off retail store fronts.

Online prices as between .45acp and 10mm are in relative parity, less than a dollar's difference if bought in volume.

In fact Underwood's direct pricing on 10mm ammo is hard to beat, and you're getting real 10mm ammo for your buck too, not the watered-down crapola.
Quote:
I said carry gun, not range gun. People are still going to buy .45's because it does have some quirks that make it well suited as a target caliber or competition caliber, but for field use I see more people embracing 10mm over it while for concealed carry the 9mm is the king.
Agree with the 10mm dominating for "field use" (camping, hiking, backpacking, hunting sidearm, etc.).

For concealed EDC where it's a 9mm, the compact micro models seem to be the dominant trend right now. That could change, however, if there's ever a federal 10-rd limit (re-)imposed on pistol magazine capacity.

Under the last "Hi-Cap mag" ban (1990s), the trend was clearly toward concealable smaller guns with mags holding 10-rds of Big Bullets: 45acp & 10mm, or .40, but not 9mm.
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Old August 15, 2021, 09:26 AM   #75
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For concealed EDC where it's a 9mm, the compact micro models seem to be the dominant trend right now. That could change, however, if there's ever a federal 10-rd limit (re-)imposed on pistol magazine capacity.

Under the last "Hi-Cap mag" ban (1990s), the trend was clearly toward concealable smaller guns with mags holding 10-rds of Big Bullets: 45acp & 10mm, or .40, but not 9mm.
Many of the compact micros that are popular now are already based on 10 rd magazines. That’s true of the SIG P365, S&W Shield Plus, and Ruger Max 9. The Taurus GX4 and the Springfield Hellcat are 11 rd magazines (though there are 10 rd versions of those pistols). The higher capacity magazines for these pistols are extended magazines that increase the grip size. Now it might be that if those extended magazines no longer grant additional capacity due to a ban that these pistols will lose some appeal. I’ve met people from ban states that do carry other cartridges than 9mm purely because they can’t get the standard capacity of those pistols in 9mm.


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