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**Aguila Blanca** · January 10, 2013, 12:03 AM

Thanks for picking up on that. It just occurred to me that the statistic was for "rides" per day, not "riders." I have no idea what the typical subway rider's itinerary is, or even if there is such a thing as a "typical" subway rider.

I was going to simplify it, since I have nothing better to go on, and this is all based on orders of magnitude rather than an exacting analysis. Let's say "a lot" of NYC subway riders use the subway to get to and from work. For them, that's 2 rides per day ... thus doubling their exposure to being "offed" on the platform. Some people may take only one trip per day, others might take three, or even four or more.

Would anyone object strenuously if I just rounded it to an assumed average of two rides per day per rider?

That would double the probability of being shoved into the path os a train, from 1:69,150,000 to 1:34,575,000. And that's significantly worse than the 1:43,998,000 for school attendance in December.

So my off-the-cuff statement wasn't totally incorrect, and I get to retract my apology to Hizzoner. (Don't I?) Like my very favorite Peanuts cartoon of all time -- the one in which the lovely Lucy VanPelt says, "I'm perfect. I thought I made a mistake once. But I was wrong."

Yes, I certainly know that other crimes occur in the subways, but there are other types of violence and crimes in schools, too. What I was picking up on was the mayor's hypocrisy when, having declared before the Sandy Hook bodies were even cold that America's schools would not be safe until we ban guns, after the second subway shove murder Mr. Bloomberg declared that the subway killings were "isolated instances" and that the subways are safe.

Which, compared to school safety, is simply not true by statistical analysis.

January 10, 2013, 12:03 AM	#3
Aguila Blanca Staff Join Date: September 25, 2008 Location: CONUS Posts: 18,467	Thanks for picking up on that. It just occurred to me that the statistic was for "rides" per day, not "riders." I have no idea what the typical subway rider's itinerary is, or even if there is such a thing as a "typical" subway rider. I was going to simplify it, since I have nothing better to go on, and this is all based on orders of magnitude rather than an exacting analysis. Let's say "a lot" of NYC subway riders use the subway to get to and from work. For them, that's 2 rides per day ... thus doubling their exposure to being "offed" on the platform. Some people may take only one trip per day, others might take three, or even four or more. Would anyone object strenuously if I just rounded it to an assumed average of two rides per day per rider? That would double the probability of being shoved into the path os a train, from 1:69,150,000 to 1:34,575,000. And that's significantly worse than the 1:43,998,000 for school attendance in December. So my off-the-cuff statement wasn't totally incorrect, and I get to retract my apology to Hizzoner. (Don't I?) Like my very favorite Peanuts cartoon of all time -- the one in which the lovely Lucy VanPelt says, "I'm perfect. I thought I made a mistake once. But I was wrong." Yes, I certainly know that other crimes occur in the subways, but there are other types of violence and crimes in schools, too. What I was picking up on was the mayor's hypocrisy when, having declared before the Sandy Hook bodies were even cold that America's schools would not be safe until we ban guns, after the second subway shove murder Mr. Bloomberg declared that the subway killings were "isolated instances" and that the subways are safe. Which, compared to school safety, is simply not true by statistical analysis.