[Moomooboo]

Weird,

I can't do a quote and reply. In response to Oldman.




"Even a quick and incomplete review of other fora, established training companies and academies, books, and articles will show rather conclusively that many--not all, but most--of those who "think differently" have simply not made the effort to inform themselves."

-And again you go saying people are wrong and ignorant because they don't believe in what you have to say. Please stray away from this.


"Statistical analysis, performed properly, is the very basis of risk management."

- Sure, and there are different ways to look and interpret statistics. Statistics are numbers, how you choose to interpret and analyze them are different. You have one, I have another, but you are stating that I am wrong.


"All risk management involves deciding whether, and if so how, to mitigate a situation that may not occur. But you are going about it wrong. First, you decide whether or not to carry a weapon, based on assessment of likelihood, severity of consequences, and what would be involved in doing so. Then you look, independently, at the next tier of risks. In this case, a malfunction.

Let me try to put it simply for you using an example that you should be able to understand. A fire in the kitchen is very unlikely, right? But you might like to be able to handle it. You might, or might not, choose to keep a fire extinguisher handy. I do. But would you select one that would likely handle fires in a very limited subset of circumstances, simply because the risk is unlikely to ever materialize?

No. No one would responsibly do so. One does not buy an extinguisher that may not function reliably just base fire are unlikely. Should a fire occur, one will want a very good one. That's obviously not a perfect analogy, but perhaps it will help get the point across.

Regarding your assertion that you are basing anything on "situations which have occurred", you have no idea at all what has occurred and what has not. No one does. There are only two small data sets containing any details of civilian defensive shootings, and only one can be verified by the public.

There are reasons why the data are not available, and I have explained them."

-Sure I will agree, all these factors are independent and should be analyzed independently as they are not dependent on the other. However, the chances of all of that happening can be combined to provide the odds of all that happening.

No offense, but please use a different analogy than the fire extinguisher.

So, by your assertion that I have no idea what has occurred due to small data sets, I am wrong in my statistics. Taking your claim that the basis of risk management is statistics, there is no way you can be correct either. The foundation of your risk management is null and void if my statistics cannot be used due to lack of data.



I can't see who wrote this but this is my response.

"A lot of folks seem adamantly opposed to carrying a spare magazine. The focus of the objection seems to be a spare mag is unnecessary. But, are there any good reasons not to carry a spare?

The reason I have not been carrying a spare mag is it is convenient not to do so. A more brutal way of phrasing my rationale is I am being slothful. Sloth and a minor convenience are not good reasons. In the recent failed self-defense trial in ME the fact that the shooter was carrying two spare mags was used against him as a sign of premeditation, which, despite sounding scary, is not a good reason, because carrying a gun even without reloads could also be deemed evidence of premeditation.

I endorse a person's choice to arm himself or not and to carry as much or as little ammo as he wants. Many good reasons have been offered for carrying reloads, but are there any good reasons (other than non-necessity) to carry no reloads?"

On the same note, is there really a good reason to carry reloads? If you're going to say that you'll never know you may never need it, we'll go down this slippery slope of needing a kevlar helmet and bulletproof vest again. Sure it's 1 or 2 reloads, but then again its just a helmet or bulletproof vest. They have some nice unnoticeable bulletproof vest nowadays too and comparing the cost of the vest vs your life, is really, priceless.

On the note of risk management, you might as well never leave your home to mitigate risks, its easy with the internet delivering goods and food to your home. (no offense oldman, I do appreciate your input).