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There are numerous studies published identifying, via interviews with convicted felons, where they obtained the firearms they used. It's too bad these aren't more widely distributed - because not surprisingly, very few felons went to the local gunstore to buy the guns they used.
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DOJ just released their report...
http://bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fv9311.pdf
Less than 1 in 10 criminals bought their guns in any kind of a store.... note that they are ALREADY subject to background checks. Only 12% were acquired from family/friends in a manner that would require a background check under proposed rules.
Combined, at least 75% of the criminal acquisitions would be entirely unaffected by expanded background checks. So, 3 out of 4 criminals would get their guns exactly the same way they do today. On the other hand, every single private transaction between two law-abiding citizens WOULD be stopped.