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Unless we know what went into it, an average (normalized or not) is useless
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Eh, I guess I assumed that goes without saying. The average number of kerdoobles per widget usage is 109327.
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...I want to be prepared for the realistic worst case scenario. ...
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Yes, exactly. Key word, realistic. My intent wasn't to fixate on an average value. My intent was to note how easily a couple of (spike) cases could affect the average, that they should be viewed as anomalous and removed from consideration. I fully agree that the 2.5 round average value is useless if there are a substantial amount of cases where 8-10 rounds are fired. 8-10 rounds is realistic. 90 rounds, however, is not; and it's not so much the affect on the average value as the anecdotal value. Just because someone happened to have half a dozen loaded mags for their AR-15 in their pickup on trip back from the range and used that ammo down to the last cartridge doesn't mean we should all keep ARs and loaded mags with us at all times.