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Simple pros and cons are not applicable in such situations. You have to also weigh percentages.
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Okay. So what percentage chance of you having to shoot someone or getting shot during a confrontation is acceptable to prevent your insurance rates from going up? 1% 10%, 50%?
Personally, even if there is a 1% chance that the confrontation is going to end up with me or the other guy dead or seriously injured, I'm not going to take that chance just to save a couple of bucks a month on my homeowners insurance.
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As long as a person understands their rights, acts accordingly to the threat presented, and does not needlessly escalate a situation beyond the threat actually presented there is nothing wrong with defending yourself.
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You're right. And the best way of defending yourself is to avoid situations where death or serious injury are possible - such as an armed confrontation with someone stealing the radio out of your car. No amount of property or insurance premium increases are worth my life or the life of someone else.
Ask yourself this question, as well. Would I be as willing to confront the thief if I wasn't armed?