The Firing Line Forums - View Single Post - Capacity, Hit Rate and Success. A Look at the Probabilities.

**OldMarksman** · September 2, 2017, 12:50 PM

Perhaps it is an unfortunate sign of the times. For anyone to look at look at John's analysis and expect to be able to use them to prudently choose a defensive weapon would indicate a fundamental lack of knowledge and understanding about a lot of things. And so, I think, would discounting them because they do not and cannot do that.

The analysis was not intended for that purpose.

The first and most essential step in gaining the ability to make an informed choice is training--training in shooting, tactics, and in the fundamental laws regarding the civilian use of force.

Next items on the list come from sources that may reside elsewhere.

What does one need to know?

Something about how a lawful defensive use of force incident might be expected to unfold--distances, circumstances, tell-tall signs, speed..
What kind of shooting skills would be appropriate, and how they differ from the suare range. Drawing fast, shooting quickly and repeatedly and effectively and sately at a target at which we had not been planning to shoot.
Something about wounding effectivness.

What we learn about the first of these will never be exhaustive.

The second of these can be worked on in a good training course, or in a simulator, or probably best in FoF training. But those will not provide the reality of fear and surprise, nor will they the into account the extreme importance of avoiding hitting innocents, and most fall short in training for shooting at a fast moving targets.

But they can help us learn and prepare, and they should be useful in telling us how well we can shoot under good conditions--the maximum achievable hit rate for us.

The third starts with learning something about penetration performance. We don't have to shoot to learn that. Does our ammunition of choice meet FBI standards?

How many hits it will likely take (or may take) will be a guess, but it can be an informed guess. Massad Ayoob recommends that people keep on hand a copy of Gray's Anatomy and refer to it from time time. I would add that studying the FBI report on handgun wounding effectiveness--the medical parts--can help us to better understand that anatomy book, at least to some extent.

The above should give one some basis for understanding the envelope, as it were, for reasonable assessments of hit rate and of the number of hits required.

Then, and only then, will you be able to apply John's graphs in the making of a selection.

Actually, you should have been able to take some guns off your list early in the process.

That's not all, however. Obviously, the gun that might make you most effective might, and probably will, be too bulky and heavy for reasonable everyday carr,

Back to the judgment call.

September 2, 2017, 12:50 PM	#17
OldMarksman Staff Join Date: June 8, 2008 Posts: 4,022	Perhaps it is an unfortunate sign of the times. For anyone to look at look at John's analysis and expect to be able to use them to prudently choose a defensive weapon would indicate a fundamental lack of knowledge and understanding about a lot of things. And so, I think, would discounting them because they do not and cannot do that. The analysis was not intended for that purpose. The first and most essential step in gaining the ability to make an informed choice is training--training in shooting, tactics, and in the fundamental laws regarding the civilian use of force. Next items on the list come from sources that may reside elsewhere. What does one need to know? Something about how a lawful defensive use of force incident might be expected to unfold--distances, circumstances, tell-tall signs, speed.. What kind of shooting skills would be appropriate, and how they differ from the suare range. Drawing fast, shooting quickly and repeatedly and effectively and sately at a target at which we had not been planning to shoot. Something about wounding effectivness. What we learn about the first of these will never be exhaustive. The second of these can be worked on in a good training course, or in a simulator, or probably best in FoF training. But those will not provide the reality of fear and surprise, nor will they the into account the extreme importance of avoiding hitting innocents, and most fall short in training for shooting at a fast moving targets. But they can help us learn and prepare, and they should be useful in telling us how well we can shoot under good conditions--the maximum achievable hit rate for us. The third starts with learning something about penetration performance. We don't have to shoot to learn that. Does our ammunition of choice meet FBI standards? How many hits it will likely take (or may take) will be a guess, but it can be an informed guess. Massad Ayoob recommends that people keep on hand a copy of Gray's Anatomy and refer to it from time time. I would add that studying the FBI report on handgun wounding effectiveness--the medical parts--can help us to better understand that anatomy book, at least to some extent. The above should give one some basis for understanding the envelope, as it were, for reasonable assessments of hit rate and of the number of hits required. Then, and only then, will you be able to apply John's graphs in the making of a selection. Actually, you should have been able to take some guns off your list early in the process. That's not all, however. Obviously, the gun that might make you most effective might, and probably will, be too bulky and heavy for reasonable everyday carr, Back to the judgment call.