I think you are approaching this from the right perspective. You aren't trying to use a magic bullet to solve this problem and you are making a conscious effort to work out safe directions of fire and unsafe directions right now, so that you don't have to figure this out in a hurry later.
Having said that, I think DNS has a fair point that we often envision these scenarios going a certain way in our head (the bump in the middle of the night as we lay sleeping in our bed being a common one); but they often happen differently than we imagine.
I think the plan you have now is a good first step; but you want to keep working through different scenarios and consider different angles so that you've got a good understanding of where all the "shoot/no-shoot" zones are in your home.
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Originally Posted by DNS
You cannot rely on swiss cheese backstops to stop your ammo safely. This is a problem folks who use forests as backstops often don't understand either.
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To be fair, I don't think the OP was suggesting he was going to set up an indoor range for plinking. He is trying to determine which backstop presents the least risk to others in a self-defense situation. There may be no backstop that is NRA-approved in that case; but there may be backstops that offer significantly less risk than others.